|
The team that's the biggest mystery
to me this season in the whole league is the Cincinnati Bengals.
It seems every year we hear about how much talent they have, and
then they go 8-8. In the last 12 months they've gotten into more
legal trouble than Paris, Lindsay, Nicole and Britney on a
Friday night. They've got Carson Palmer back at full strength,
which should mean for an electric offense. But, why can't Marvin
Lewis, who was touted as this defensive genius coming out of
Baltimore, seem to improve that side of the ball? Given that the
Ravens defense hasn't missed a beat since he departed (and
they've arguably gotten better), it's clear he just isn't that
good, and that the strength of a team, at the end of the day,
really is the players.
I remember the year after that
Ravens team won the Super Bowl. I thought they'd just repeat,
despite losing some key players. I learned then the importance
of great players. Which is why I'm baffled to see people
continue to pick the Colts to win the Super Bowl, or to be in
it. No team has lost more talent than they have, and no team has
added less. Their bizarre playoff run, where their defense and
some guys in striped shirts won them the championship, would
have only been the strangest playoff run I can remember if the
Steelers hadn't done the same thing the year before. I really
like what the Jaguars have done in the last week: Naming Garrard
as their starting QB, cutting Leftwich and picking up Aaron
Glenn.
While I'm not sold on the
Chargers this year, I'm really not sold on the Broncos. There
just seems to be something wrong with that team. All they had to
do was beat the 49ers at home in the snow in week 17 last year,
and they were in the playoffs. You just can't overlook a loss
like that.
Which leaves me with the New
England Patriots. I'll tell you this much: The magic is gone.
That doesn't mean they're not well-coached, and it doesn't mean
they're not a very good team. But what made them special has
been lost in contract disputes and the signing of big-name free
agents. I truly believe the league does not want a dynasty, that
they don't want the Patriots to succeed. I think that's good for
at least one loss this season (hopefully not in the AFC
Championship again). Will this experiment work? I don't think
we'll know until sometime around week 8. They could lose in week
1 then win 18 in a row. |
|
The shame of the AFC is that there
are too many solid teams. Indy, New England, San Diego,
Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Denver and Jacksonville are
better than any team in the NFC, so these teams have a tougher
road to travel.
Why bother having a season based on
some experts picking the Patriots to go 16-0? I don't get all
the Patriot love. They remain an elite team, but their offseason
pickups were good, not great. They start the season with stud
defensive lineman Richard Seymour out for six games, and
cheap-shot artist safety Rodney Harrison sitting four games for
taking HGH. Picking up name free agents has never been the road
to a title, so count me less than impressed with their offseason.
... The rest of the East is unimpressive. The Jets have a great
young coach in Eric Mangini, but QB Chad Pennington needs to
stay healthy, a tall order.
The Colts are still the team to beat
and Joseph Addai will have a breakout year at RB. Peyton Manning
is still the man and look for rookie Anthony Gonzalez to thrive
as the third receiver. The defense will be better at linebacker
(watch for Freddy Keiaho to blossom) and in the secondary, but
stopping the run remains a concern. If the Colts improve in that
area, I see them repeating. Jacksonville has a
championship-level defense but a .500 offense, while I expect
Vince Young and Tennessee to regress a bit. Houston will
continue to regret not drafting Reggie Bush.
Cincinnati has the best offense
outside of the Colts and if their D improves, I like the Bengals
to be back in the playoffs. Baltimore will drop a bit as I see
QB Steve McNair at the end of his career. Pittsburgh ended 6-2
last season, so look for that to continue to a wild card slot.
Cleveland will be fun to watch if only to catch shots of Brady
Quinn. San
Diego has the best talent in the league but the mediocre Norv
Turner as coach. The Cowboys did win a Super Bowl with Barry
Switzer, so there is hope for Charger fans. Look for QB Phillip
Rivers to join the elite ranks this year. Denver will get a wild
card slot if RB Travis Henry can stay healthy, while the Chiefs
will not finish last simply because the Raiders are in the same
division. |
|
In mid-February, I thought the Green
Bay Packers would be the NFC Champions this year. Six months
later, not so much. They were 4-8 before a delightful little run
at the end of last season, but this team is still plagued by the
same problems that left them at 4-8: An aging quarterback who
makes bad decisions, no starting running back, second-rate
receivers and an overrated defense. On the flip side, one team
has done some things to change its fortunes. Make no mistake: I
think Matt Millen is a loser of a GM. But, I also really like
their chances. The drafting of Calvin Johnson will be to this
team what Reggie Bush was the Saints. He's "just a receiver"?
Tell that to the Vikings who nabbed Randy Moss and went 15-1.
Speaking of the Saints, I just
love how so many people have jumped on their bandwagon. I picked
them to win the division last year, and I'm picking them third
this year. They caught lightning in a bottle last year and took
advantage of getting to play the Packers and Niners with their
last-place schedule. This year they get the Eagles and then at
Chicago in week 17 as their first-place-schedule games. I like
last year's hype team, the Panthers, to right their ship; no way
their offense is ranked 24th this year. By the way, this year's
Frank Gore: Cadillac Williams
In the East and West, it's hard
to see anyone knocking off the Eagles and Seahawks, barring
injuries. I'm not high on the Niners like everyone else; I think
they could win the NFC next year, but I just feel like they need
one more year of work before they take that next leap into the
playoffs, even in the JV division. |
|
The NFC is the JV of the NFL and is wide open
simply because no team is dominant. I pick the Eagles because I
see QB Donovan McNabb staying healthy and playing with a chip on
his shoulder and I like the defense. Dallas will be formidable
on defense but Tony Romo needs to play like the Romo of mid-2006
and not the one who stumbled and bumbled down the stretch. The
Giants and Redskins will fight for third.
Green Bay looks poised to win the
division. Brett Favre can still play QB at a high level and I
like the young defenders they have. Chicago will restart the
trend of Super Bowl losers not making the playoffs the following
year. The Bears kept the wrong RB in Cedtic Benson and letting
Thomas Jones go. Rex "Turnover" Grossman will be on a short
leash. The Lions will move the ball but can't stop anyone.
Minnesota will be hard-pressed to pass the ball.
I like Carolina in the South by
default. I see the Saints slipping to 8-8 based on a defense
that can't stop anyone. Tampa Bay might surprise but the Bucs'
defense is a shell of its former self. Atlanta will be digging
out from the Michael Vick debacle.
San Francisco QB Alex Smith is
smoking hot and ready to dominate in his third season. If the
49ers can play better pass defense, this team will make some
noise. I like Seattle to be a wild card based on a solid
offense. The Cardinals will play a lot of 35-31 games, so at
least they will entertain. I have Rams RB Steven Jackson in a
fantasy league, so that's my rooting interest with this team. |
