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Related: 2003
season
overview.
By
Charlie in the Trees
For Outsports
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1.
MINNESOTA TWINS |
 Hot
Twink: Bobby Kielty. The very picture of corn-fed Midwestern
wholesomeness (albeit from the L.A. basin), in the form of a
muscular, strawberry blonde.
Newbies: Kenny Rogers (LHP), Mike Fetters (RHP)
Goners: David Ortiz (DH)
Upside: No team plays the game better. The Twins have
baseball’s most fundamentally sound defense, led by the
incredible Torii Hunter in center, and ably aided by 1B Doug
Mientkiewicz and 3B Corey Koskie at the infield corners. They
play smart, too. Surprisingly for a mini-market franchise, the
team is both very deep, especially in the outfield, and quite
stable. For 2003, the Twinks signed Kenny Rogers, yet another
Gold Glover. Backed by the best defense he has seen in his
career, expect Rogers to put up his best numbers ever. It’s
tough to remember, but so much actually went wrong for the Twins
last year. First, the stress of contraction: they did not even
know they would be playing together until the eve of spring
training. Second, losing Tom Kelly, the best manager in baseball
over the last 20 years: they hired a keeper in Ron Gardenhire
(who’s managerial style is completely indistinguishable). Third,
an injury epidemic to their pitching staff: Brad Radke, Eric
Milton and Joe Mays each missed significant time due to
injuries. Even defensive cornerstones like Koskie and 2B Luis
Rivas missed time. Yet these survivors ran away with the Central
and made it to the ALCS before their bullpen imploded. With just
a little bit of good health, this team will be unstoppable.
Downside: Lack of a true ace. Lack of a fireballing
closer. Yet these are not insurmountable obstacles. Radke, Mays,
Johan Santana and Eric Milton (when healthy) have been the
potential to be dominant. Everyday Eddie Guardado emerged as an
effective, albeit not dominant, closer.
Bottom Line: The Twins played 168 games before it all
fell apart in the ALCS against Destiny’s Children. The maturing
Twins go into this season knowing that it could well be a
181-game season. Having experienced the playoffs last year, the
Twins are better prepared for the rigors of the extra-length
season. They will need to be. It will be a long season. In a
good way.
2002 record: 94-67, 1st place
2003 prediction: 96-66, 1st place, World Series Champions |
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2.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
 White
Hot Sock: Joe Crede. Cute Crede wins by default.
Sorry Southsiders, but your Sox rank 30th out of 30 on overall
team hotness.
Newbies: Bartolo Colon (RHP), Billy Koch (RHP), Flash
Gordon (RHP), Brian Daubach (1B), Rick White (RHP), Sandy Alomar,
Jr. (C)
Goners: Keith Foulke (RHP), Royce Clayton (SS), Todd
Ritchie (RHP), Jim Parque (LHP)
Upside: Pitching, pitching, pitching and Magglio. This
offseason, the Sox added a number one starter, Bartolo Colon,
and the 100 mph fastball of Billy Koch to a terrific young staff
anchored by Mark Buehrle and potential breakout star Jon
Garland. Colon is coming off the best year of his career. If Sox
pitchers perform at their capabilities, this team will fight the
Twins to the wire. All that and Magglio Ordonez, too. Ordonez,
the most anonymous mega-star in the game, is coming off career
highs in average (.320), home runs (38), RBI (135) and slugging
(.597), narrowly missing his career best in OBP (.381) by a full
.001.
Downside: The threat level for a catastrophic injury
attack is at Code Orange. Fat Bartolo is an especially high
risk. Young Buehrle has been pitching a heavy inning loads for
awhile. SS Jose Valentin has not played a full season since
1998. New set up man Flash Gordon has a lengthy history of
shoulder and arm problems. Worst of all is the Big Hurt. Frank
Thomas is a cancer on the clubhouse. Specifically, he’s prostate
cancer: i.e., a massive pain in the butt. He’s fat, sulky,
unproductive and highly overpaid. The superfecta of shame.
Bottom Line: Sox go into the season as baseball’s most
difficult team to read. They finished with 81 wins and 81
losses. They could swing 15 or 20 games in either direction and
it would not be a shock. Given the overall youth of their
talented core, the most likely outcome is for moderate
improvement.
2002 record: 81-81, 2nd place
2003 prediction: 90-72, 2nd place |
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3.
CLEVELAND INDIANS |
 Hot
Indian: Josh Bard. Young stud catcher already getting rave
reviews for his skills at calling a game. It should be fun
watching him and the young Tribe pitchers grow up together.
Newbies: Shane Spencer (OF), Brian Anderson (LHP), A.J. Hinch
(C), Terry Mulholland (LHP), Eric Wedge (manager)
Goners: Jim Thome (1B), Einar Diaz (C), Charles Nagy (RHP),
Jaret Wright (RHP), Lee Stevens (1B)
Upside: Long-term prognosis is very good. The Tribe is
rebuilding with hot young prospects. So are K.C. and the Tigers,
you say? The turnaround will be much quicker in Cleveland.
First, the Tribe has more and better kids. If one does not
develop, they have alternatives waiting in the wings. Detroit
and K.C. cannot say that. Second, the youngsters have excellent
role models like DH Ellis Burks and SS Omar Vizquel (assuming he
is not assassinated by Jose Mesa) to facilitate the maturation
process. Third, they hired the right man for the job. Again,
contrast that with Detroit and K.C. New manager Eric Wedge is
coming off two very successful seasons running the Tribe’s AAA
team in Buffalo. Wedge was promoted right along with the kids.
GM Mark Shapiro sloughed off Cleveland’s vets and replaced them
with buttloads of superstars-in-training, such as 2B Brandon
Phillips, OF Ben Broussard and 1B Travis Hafner (who must fill
Jim Thome’s big jockstrap and cup). If Tribe fans can wait until
2005, their patience will be amply rewarded.
Downside: An ugly season (or two) coming up at the Jake by the
Lake. It will take time to sort out the young pitching talent.
The young everyday players will need time to learn the major
leagues. Eventually, like giving birth to triplets, folks will
emerge, but in the meantime, it will be quite painful.
Bottom Line: Cleveland will come so close to 100 losses. At
times, it’ll feel like Pat Corrales is running the show again.
But do not despair. Good times are coming.
2002 record: 74-88, 3rd place
2003 prediction: 68-94, 3rd place |
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4.
DETROIT TIGERS |
 Hot
Tiger: Mike Maroth? The anonymous young Tigers are all rather
indistinguishable.
Newbies: Steve Avery (LHP), Bill Haselman (C), Alan Trammell
(manager)
Goners: Robert Fick (OF), Chris Truby (3B), Mark Redman (LHP),
Randall Simon (1B)
Upside: After three years of intense lobbying, Tiger management
finally moved in Comerica’s outfield fences. Home runs will come
cheaper. The Tigers will score more runs. Unfortunately, the
Tigers forgot to factor in that the other team also will hit at
shorter fences, too. Detroit’s young (and not all that awful)
pitchers will take a beating. With the left field fences 25 feet
closer, and lots more homers flying out of the park, look for
bunches of ill-informed stories about how the young pitchers
failed to developed, but, oh how the young hitters have been
such a pleasant surprise. Neither will be true.
Downside: Hiring Trammell as manager was a pure P.R. move that
this troubled team could not afford. He has never managed
anywhere. Lance Parrish and Kirk Gibson, also from the ’84
Tigers, have been brought in as coaches. That’s stunt casting.
The Tigers have boatloads of decent young players (but not as
many as Cleveland) who need good teachers. The Tigers should
have gone with experience, not feel-good nostalgia. Leading
indicator that moving in the fences and hiring Trammell were
both dumb moves? ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian is already peeing on
himself with giddy joy over those decisions.
Bottom Line: The Tigers lost 106 games last year and, according
to sabermetrics, they over-achieved. Their ratios of runs
scored/runs against predicted even fewer wins. Team president
Dave Dombrowski built winning systems in Montreal and Florida.
He drew a tough assignment building a winner at the CoPa. The
young pitchers may be good enough to improve the record by a
couple of games. but the Tigers will be stuck on triple-digit
losses for a second year in a row.
2002 record: 55-106, last place
2003 prediction: 60-102, 4th place |
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5.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS |
 Hot
Royal:
Carlos Beltran. Hot. Yet still not hot enough to
make it worthwhile to watch a Royals game.
Newbies: Albie Lopez (RHP), James Baldwin (RHP)
Goners: Paul Byrd (RHP), Jeff Suppan (RHP), Chuck
Knoblauch (OF), Neifi Perez (SS), Roberto Hernandez (RHP), A.J.
Hinch (C), Blake Stein (RHP)
Upside: Mike Sweeney. Beltran. That’s it. And one
definitely will be gone by August 1, because that’s been the
Royal way.
Downside: Everyone and everything but Beltran and
Sweeney. From the front office, to the players on the field and,
especially, the pitching, there is systemic incompetence in K.C.
Clippers intelligence combined with a Bengals skills and
abilities. Faced with yet another talent-bleeding this offseason,
what was management’s solution? Sign James Baldwin, who had
horrifying ERA pitching in an extreme pitchers’ park in front of
a stellar defense in Seattle.
Bottom Line: Has any baseball franchise been more abusive
toward its loyal fans over the last decade or so? Montreal? No,
too small of a fan base to compete. Minnesota? Despite the
contraction threats, the team on the field has been great at
times, including now. Tampa Bay? They’ve only been in the league
for five years; that used to be a reasonable time for an
expansion team to stink. Detroit? A hockey and basketball town
and, besides, the football team has been even dumber (up until
they hired Steve Mariucci). Kansas City has a large, dedicated,
smart fan base that keeps getting kicked in the teeth year after
year. This year, they should be kicked not only into the
basement, but into deserving status of being the worst team in
baseball.
2002 record: 62-100, 4th place
2003 prediction: 53-109, last place, worst team in
baseball |
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