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Related: 2003
season
overview.
By
Charlie in the Trees
For Outsports
| 1.
HOUSTON ASTROS |
 Hot
’Stro: Brad Ausmus. More movie star handsome than even a
movie star.
Newbies: Jeff Kent (2B), Brian Moehler (RHP)
Goners: Daryle Ward (OF), Dave Mlicki (RHP)
Upside: Starting pitchers Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller
continue to put up awesome numbers in baseball’s most
pitcher-unfriendly ballpark, non-Coors. Slugger Lance Berkman is
about ready to start winning MVP awards. Sophomore manager Jimy
Williams is adept at juggling line-ups and should figure out who
should play third, shortstop and the other two outfield slots
when.
Downside: An aging core group of players, led once more
by Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio. Bags’ buff bod is beginning to
break down (his shoulder is a mess) and Biggs is being played
out of position to make room for newcomer Jeff Kent. Kent, age
35, won’t slow down the aging process.
Bottom Line: After the 31 years of ping-ponging fans
between frustration and indifference, the 2002 Angels not only
won their franchise’s first post-season series, they won the
whole World Series. What star-crossed NL team has been living a
parallel life? Clues. Both joined the major leagues in the first
wave of expansion. Both dramatically lost league championship
series, more than once. (Angels first in ‘79 and ‘82, the other
in ‘80.) In fact, both lost their respective league
championships in 1986 in what arguably were each league’s most
exciting championship. Both have suffered in-season deaths
(Lyman Bostock, Jim Umbricht), haunting suicides (Donnie Moore,
Don Wilson), and freak injuries to star players (Bobby
Valentine’s leg, J.R. Richard’s stroke). Both even change team
uniforms and colors frequently, often wearing their league’s
ugliest uni’s. Luck changed for the Halos in 2002. Their
doppelganger will follow right behind in 2003, if they stay
healthy.
2002 record: 84-78, 2nd place
2003 prediction: 94-68, 1st place, NL champions |
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2.
CINCINNATI REDS |
 Hot
Red: Austin Kearns. He’s just too cute to look past.
Newbies: Wilton Guerrero (2B), Pete Harnisch (RHP), Kent
Mercker (LHP), Felipe Lopez (SS)
Goners: Todd Walker (2B), Elmer Dessens (RHP), Brian
Moehler (RHP), Shawn Estes (LHP)
Upside: Excellent core of young talent. If Adam Dunn (age
23) and Kearns (age 22) play alongside a healthy Ken Griffey,
Jr., the Reds will have the best outfield in the majors. Felipe
Lopez (age 22) should displace ageless Barry Larkin this year.
All that and a deep bullpen, with injury-prone Scott Williamson
as the new closer, replacing Danny Graves, who has been moved to
the rotation.
Downside: The starting rotation is scary-bad. Ryan
Dempster, acquired mid-year during another of the Marlins’
talent hemorrhages, may never develop into a stopper. At
manager, Bob Boone may not be the bumbling buffoon he was in
Kansas City, but his in-game decision making, and player
relations skills, are not major league caliber.
Bottom Line: Will the Reds contend in ’03? That question
is answered by this question: will Griffey stay/get/be healthy?
A healthy Griffey not only will bring RBI and game-saving
catches, it will render invisible his whiney, morale-destroying
evil twin. If Junior does not bounce back this year, after two
injury-lost seasons, his career will be officially over at age
33.
2002 record: 78-84, 3rd place
2003 prediction: 84-78, 2nd place |
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3.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS |
 Hot
Card: Scott Rolen. Born to wear a Cardinals cap.
Newbies: Chris Carpenter (RHP), Brett Tomko (RHP), Joe
Girardi (C), Dustin Hermanson (RHP), Al Levine (RHP)
Goners: Andy Benes (RHP), Chuck Finley (LHP), Dave Veres
(RHP), Rick White (RHP), Jamey Wright (RHP)
Upside: Veterans that know how to win. The Cards return
the same every-day line-up that won 97 games in 2002, with a
full season from the top 3B in baseball, Scott Rolen. And their
youngest starter, 23 year old Albert Pujols, is probably the
NL’s best position player, non-Barry.
Downside: Potentially catastrophic starting pitching. The
rotation is deteriorating quickly. The bullpen lost too much
depth. The starting staff is even thinner. After Matt Morris,
there’s no one you would want even as a #5 starter. Proof: Brett
Tomko, who has spent most of his career oscillating between the
majors and minors, is pencilled in as the #3 starter.
Bottom Line: The Cards performed like heroes in 2002,
making an inspirational run all the way to the NLCS following
the tragic in-season death of team leader Darryl Kile. But this
aging team may have missed their last, best chance to win it
all. The Tony La Russa Era is ending with a whimper. Those six
games St. Louis has against Kansas City, as part of those
unbalanced, geographic-rivalry inter-league games, will stop
them from falling below .500.
2002 record: 97-65, 1st place
2003 prediction: 83-79, 3rd place |
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4.
CHICAGO CUBS |
 Hot
Cubbie: Alex Gonzalez. After the Cubs’ offseason spending
binge, meet the new hottest team in Major League Baseball.
Newbies: Dusty Baker (manager), Eric Karros (1B), Mark
Grudzielanek (2B), Tom Goodwin (OF), Damian Miller (C), Shawn
Estes (LHP), Dave Veres (RHP), Mike Remlinger (LHP), Troy
O’Leary (OF), Ramon E. Martinez (2B-SS), Mike Sirotka (LHP)
Goners: Jon Lieber (RHP), Fred McGriff (1B), Chris Stynes
(3B), Todd Hundley (C), Joe Girardi (C)
Upside: Dusty! The conventional wisdom has the Cubs
improving based solely on their new manager. Getting Dusty to
replace Don Baylor (via Bruce Kimm) is the equivalent of dating
Matt Le Blanc as a replacement for Wallace Shawn. Dusty Baker
may not be the perfect manager, but he was a perfect for San
Francisco, a team of self-motivated veterans prone to attitude
problems. He walks into a similar situation in Chicago.
Downside: Too many newcomers to integrate at once.
Despite major upgrades in the bench, bullpen and catching, it
may take some time to complete the adjustment. In the meantime,
this is the last year of Sosa’s contract. Sammy may not be as
responsive to Dusty gently pushing him from selfish to selfless,
especially if the team gets off to a slow start.
Bottom Line: All signs point upward, including
Sabermetrics. First, under Bill James’s “plexiglas principle,” a
team making a dramatic move in one direction tends to move
moderately in the opposite direction the next. Like a pendulum.
The Cubs dropped from 88 wins in 2001 to 67 in 2002. Second,
under the “Pythagorean formula,” a team’s ratio of runs scored,
to runs against, correlates to its winning percentage. When a
team diverges significantly from the won/lost ration predicted
by its scoring, it will tend to move in the direction of the
disparity the next year. The Cubs won far fewer games in 2002
than predicted under the Pythagorean formula. Sabermetrics
predicts an upsurge.
2002 record: 67-95, 5th place
2003 prediction: 81-81, 4th place |
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5.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES |
 Hot
Bucco: Adam Hyzdu. Hits like a (pre-Title IX) girl, so he
mostly rides the bench. Get a seat that looks into the Pirates’
dugout.
Newbies: Reggie Sanders (OF), Matt Stairs (OF), Jeff
D’Amico (RHP), Jeff Suppan (RHP), Dennys Reyes (LHP), Rolando
Arrojo (RHP), Randall Simon (1B), Julian Tavarez (RHP)
Goners: Francisco Cordova (RHP), Ron Villone (LHP)
Upside: The Bucs have the most beautiful of the new
retro-modern ballparks, with the outfield fences opening
dramatically towards the Allegheny River and Pittsburgh’s
magnificent skyline. And the pitching is decent, too. If Kris
Benson is healthy, and ex-Brewer Jeff D’Amico contributes at
all, the Buccos have a fairly good staff, anchored by youngsters
Kip Wells and Josh Fogg.
Downside: Unless C Jason Kendall and 3B Aramis Rodriguez
bounce back – Kendall all the way back to his 2000 numbers – the
Pirates will not score any runs. LF Brian Giles cannot continue
to be a one-man show.
Bottom Line: Do the Pirates have a plan? It seems they
don’t have a clue. As a small (microscopic?) market team, they
could try to emulate the Billy Beane A’s, building through the
minors with strong-armed flame-throwers and disciplined hitters.
Instead, they are emulating the Wendy Selig-Prieb Brewers,
grabbing useless available veterans such as Matt Stairs and
Rolando Arrojo. Signing injury-prone Reggie Sanders even echoes
the Brewers' disastrous signing of Jeffrey Hammonds a few years
ago.
2002 record: 72-89, 4th place
2003 prediction: 71-91, 5th place |
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6.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS |
 Hot
Brewer: Alex Sanchez. Caliente Cubano fled Castro in 1994 in
a raft. He now plays for the Seligs in ice cold, leaky Miller
Park in the wide-body capital of America, M’waukee. He’s got to
be asking himself: Was it worth it? Let’s hope he likes brats.
Newbies: Royce Clayton (SS), John Vander Wal (OF), Dave
Mlicki (RHP), Todd Ritchie (RHP), Wes Helms (3B), Ned Yost
(manager)
Goners: Jose Hernandez (SS), Matt Stairs (OF)
Upside: Good news! There’s one less Selig running this
franchise, after Bud’s daughter Wendy Selig-Prieb resigned her
team presidency. After a franchise-record 106 losses, things
can’t get any worse, can they? In the meantime, NBA-sized 1B
Richie Sexton is a legitimate anchor to the offense. But it’s
unlikely he will ever repeat his numbers from 2001, when he hit
45 HR’s and 125 RBI.
Downside: They lost 106 games in 2002. they lost their
best player, SS Jose Hernandez to free agency. Last year’s
bullpen was pretty good. But it over-achieved. Expect worse.
Much worse. Once again, the Brewers are futilely trying to
spackle over huge holes in their line-up with aging veteran
rejects. New SS Royce Clayton won’t even hit his weight. He
weighs just 185.
Bottom Line: Beer-loving Wisconsinites are the hardest
drinking fans in baseball. Good for them. They’ll need every
drop of booze to get them through what should be another
triple-digit losing season.
2002 record: 56-106, last place
2003 prediction: 62-100, last place |
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