Baseball

By Charlie in the Trees
Outsports.com

LAS VEGAS--Last year, the theme of the baseball playoffs was “Road Warriors.” The road team won each series up through the league championships. And, until Game Six of the World Series, the road team was five outs and a Scott Spiezio homer from making it a seven-for-seven clean sweep.

The 2002 World Series was an all-wild card affair. This year, it’s just plain wild. An airtight, slam-dunk, mortal-lock of a case can be made for each of the eight playoff teams coming up short and failing to win the World Championship. It’s much tougher to predict the winner. Each team – even the Great Yankee Dynasty – is fundamentally flawed, incapable of dominating this post-season. But someone is going to ride hot pitching. Someone is going to unearth an unlikely RBI hero. Someone is going to make sure that ball doesn’t roll between his legs and that someone win it the World Series.

Each team is a great story whose ending is yet to be written. You like mysteries? Two teams are living and playing under a curse. One from a goat. The other from a dead fat guy. You like melodrama? Can’t beat the soap opera playing in the Bronx. How about feel-good stories? Three small market teams triumphed against the odds. Pathos your bag? Can’t beat Barry Bonds returning from his father’s funeral to hit a game-winning home run. And if you’re into sequels, and I mean really high Roman numeral sequels. Braves XII, playing at a ballyard near you.

First up, this week, the “divisional” series, which are still the best three out of five. Of course, these really aren’t “divisional” as no team is playing someone within its own division. In fact, under current rules, you can only have teams from the same division playing in the second round, the league championship round.

Then, it’s on to the league championship series, which are still best four out of seven. Just like the World Series. Much to the chagrin of the Boston Red Sox.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

BOSTON RED SOX
Final record: 95-67. Wild card. But Game Seven of the World Series would be at Fenway.
vs. opponent: 3-4 vs. Oakland; 9-10 vs. Yankees; 2-4 vs. Twins

Player to Watch: Nomar. Just like his counterpart on Oakland, No-mahhh! (like Cher and Madonna, only one name is necessary) is capable of the big hit as well as the bone-headed error. If the fate of the Red Sox again turns on an infield grounder, Nomar is not the one Sox fans should choose to have gloving the ball.

The Story So Far: The bullpen-by-committee failed miserably. Yet the strategy of cornering the market on fat, ugly 1B/DH combos paid handsome dividends as David Ortiz and Kevin Millar performed spectacularly. There is no “Curse of the Bambino.” The only curse haunting this franchise was cheap, often racist ownership that made stupid decisions at key junctures. Current owner John Henry broke with tradition. He is neither cheap nor racist, and he has surrounded himself with smart, creative management. Yet there remain huge holes on this team, and not just in the bullpen. Second base, manned by the dreadful Todd Walker, is one. (Another place where you don’t want that late game infield grounder heading.) Bill Mueller won the AL batting title. But it was a fluke. Sox fans should expect no more from him this season.

How It’ll End: You get the feeling with this Red Sox team that they either will get swept in the first round, or they will suffer another glorious Game Seven loss in the World Series. Nothing in between seems a viable option. Look for the former, along with more whining about the alleged, yet non-existent, Curse. Yet it won’t be the Curse that is operational if Byung-Hyun Kim is asked to close out a game at Yankee Stadium in the second round if both teams get that far.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Final record: 96-66. The A’s great run continued.
vs. opponent: 4-3 vs. Red Sox; 6-3 vs. Yankees; 1-8 vs. Twins

Player to Watch: Miguel Tejeda. Handsome, muscular Miggie is capable of launching the big blast that puts the A’s ahead. He also has a nasty habit of making the egregious late-inning error that opens the floodgates for the opposition. In his Athletic swan song, which Miggie will have more effect on the A’s playoff run?

The Story So Far: Plucky, but poor small market boys triumph through winsome combination of muscle and brains. The 2003 A’s field a team with basically the same strengths and weaknesses as the three previous early-exiters. The starting pitcher is superb, with Ted Lilly finally stepping up and ably filling in for the injured Mark Mulder.

How It’ll End: For the first time in the Billy Beane Era, the A’s face in the playoffs a team that has its same glaring weaknesses. Like the Red Sox, the A’s have strong starting pitching sufficiently deep for the playoffs. Yet both sabermetrically-built teams are weak on defense, especially in the infield, and sport offenses overly reliant on murdering the other team’s mistakes. Like the Earl Weaver Orioles of the 1970s, which relied on walks and three-run homers, the A’s repeatedly fall short in the post-season as playoff-caliber pitching throws fewer mistakes over the plate. Despite numerous playoff appearances, often with gaudy won/lost percentages, the Earl Weaver O’s won only one World Series. Could this year be the Billy Beane A’s one? Look for the A’s, playing their mirror image, finally to get past the divisional round. But the quality of the pitching they will face from the winner of the Yanks/Twins series will spell doom for our heroes once again.

NEW YORK YANKEES
Final record: 101-61. Best in the AL; good enough for home field throughout the playoffs
vs. opponent: 7-0 vs. Twins; 3-6 vs. A’s; 10-9 vs. Red Sox

Player to Watch: Jorge Posada. The durable Posada always comes up big in the post-season. But he recently turned 32, the age at which catchers begin to wear down and out. How deep into the playoffs can he go and still perform like the stud he is?

The Story So Far: Minimal expectations met thus far. The Yanks continue to ride that solid core of homegrown talent up the middle (Posada, Derek Jeter, Alfonso Soriano, Bernie Williams) – no team is better up the middle defensively or offensively – and their aging but effective pitching staff, to yet another pennant in the Joe Torre Era. (Torre is now officially an “era” in Yankee history.) Like a special episode of the “The Love Boat,” the Yanks feature an All-Star line-up. Aging stars, that is.

How It’ll End: Winning for the Yankees is a joyless exercise. Like taking a driving test, the best they can do is meet minimal expectations. If they win the World Series, all that they accomplished was avoiding failure. If they fall short, even by an inning in a memorable World Series, they will be losers, failures, unemployed and trade bait. The Yankees are vulnerable against the Twins. Baseball records tend to balance out over the course of the season. When a team that has dominated one team in the regular season, and it must meet that foe in the post-season, the records tend to move toward balance. The conventional wisdom is that the Yankees swept the Twins due to their lefty pitching. The Twins need only win three of five to move the season total more into balance. Those great Yankee starters are a lot more tired now than when they were shutting the Twins down earlier. The Twins will pull the upset in five. But if the Yankees get past them, they will cruise into the World Series by taking advantage of the mistake-prone team that will win the A’s/Red Sox series.

MINNESOTA TWINS
Final record: 90-72. Best in baseball after the All-Star Game.
vs. opponent: 0-7 vs. Yankees; 8-1 vs. A’s; 4-2 vs. Red Sox

Player to Watch: Johan Santana. The Venezuelan youngster went 12-3, with a 3.07 ERA. He absolutely must be a Jack Morris type #1 starter if the Twins are to advance.

The Story So Far: On Sept. 3, the Twins were struggling to get back into the race. The White Sox were getting their act together and the Royals’ act was simply not falling apart. Playing the Angels, big game that they had to win. Late in the game, third base coach Al Newman bizarrely waives right-fielder Dustan Mohr to try to score. The throw gets to Bengie Molina well before Mohr does. Yet Mohr makes the perfect hard slide, dislodges the ball. Shannon Stewart races around to score on an inside-the-park homer. Twins win 6-5. They go 18-6 the rest of the way, including 17 of 20 before the final post-clinching meaningless series against the Tigers. Rarely can this be said, but this pennant was won on a single play. (And more than one Twins fan has speculated as to whether Newman legitimately was suffering early symptoms of his later brain hemorrhage when he sent Mohr on that play.)

How It’ll End: This has been a frustrating season for Twins fans. Torii Hunter, while continuing to play world-class D, had a terrible season at the plate. Shannon Stewart has been on fire since he picked up mid-summer, but he’s been miscast as a lead-off hitter. Doug Mientkiewicz has suffered nagging injuries. But the pitching is coming together at the right time. Santana is the ace. Eric Milton is healthy. Brad Radke has been unhittable. And the bullpen is deep. This is a different team than got swept by the Yankees in the season series early. Twins in five. The Twins play the smartest baseball of any team in the post-season, which should get them past the error-prone Sox/Athletics winner. Twins in the World Series, with home dome advantage? That’s always been the formula for a world title.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

ATLANTA BRAVES
Final record: 101-61. Home field throughout the NL playoffs.
vs. opponent: 4-2 vs. Cubs; 2-4 vs. Giants; 9-10 vs. Marlins

Player to Watch: Javy Lopez. Do you need a reason to focus on J-Lo and baseball’s best booty? How about the drama of him catching perennial post-season bust Greg Maddux for the first time? How about seeing if his Johnny Bench reincarnate regular season translates into a Big Red Machine calibre post-season? How about, well, the booty?

The Story So Far: Ho hum. Another Braves pennant. Twelve in a row. Yawn. Except that this wasn’t the same old same old after all. The pitching went south and only John Smoltz out of the bullpen (45 saves, 1.12 ERA) looked like his Leo Mazzone sculpted self. Maddux looked every one of his 37 years, and more. Off-season acquisition Russ Ortiz went 21-7 only because of phenomenal run support. Speaking of which ... the Braves prospered because of an outstanding offense. They led the league with 907 runs scored (yes, they outscored Coors-based Colorado). Only Boston in the DH league scored more.

How It’ll End: Cubs vs. Braves in the first round is a baseball-loving gay boy’s wet dream. So much total studliness in both dugouts. And so much frustration and underachievement. Someone has to win. Great pitching usually stops a great offense in the post-season. The Cubs have the arms to stop the Braves attack. Atlanta’s hitters were fading and it seems unlikely that Marcus Giles, Rafael Furcal, and J-Lo can continue to hit like Hall of Famers against playoff-calibre pitching. Look for the Braves to lose to the Cubs in five.

CHICAGO CUBS
Final record: 88-74. Ended up with a respectable record.
vs. opponent: 2-4 vs. Braves; 4-2 vs. Giants; 4-2 vs. Marlins

Player to Watch: Mark Prior. Young stud must step up and be the horse, and win multiple games in each series for the Cubbies to advance.

The Story So Far: Whodunit? Was it Dusty Baker? The easy-going manager with a preternatural ability to get the most out of veteran players? Was it team President Andy McPhail, who convinced the Cubs faceless corporate ownership to start acting like the big market team they are? Was it Slammin’ Sammy Sosa and his infamous and occasionally corked bat? Was it those “proven veterans,” such as meat-beating Randall Simon, picked up for the stretch run? Who did it? Quality starting pitching, anchored by new-found ace Mark Prior and ably supported by Kerry Wood and Carlos Zambrano.

How It’ll End: A goat never cursed this franchise. The only curse on the Cubs is years of complacency, fed by Wrigley-loving fans who wallow in the whole “lovable losers” mystique and have never demanded that ownership field a competitive team as a condition of their love. This year’s team is based on the NL best starting rotation. But Dusty “Death to Pitching Arms” Baker has been riding these horses hard. They may have enough to shut down a mediocre Braves line-up, but there is no way they have enough to go three rounds in the playoffs. Look for the Cubs to actually win a post-season series for the first time in nearly a century. Then look for them to head for the exits in the second round. Regardless of whether they let the goat in to watch.

FLORIDA MARLINS
Final record: 91-71. But over .600 since firing Jeff Torborg.
vs. opponent: 2-4 vs. Giants; 10-9 vs. Braves; 2-4 vs. Cubs

Player to Watch: Mike Lowell. Lowell is coming off the DL just in time for the playoffs. While he will be eased back into the line-up, the Fish need his bat to support all those young power pitchers who’ve carried the Fish on their arms all season.

The Story So Far: On May 10, this team was dead in the water. Manager Jeff Torborg was bent on destroying all young pitching arms south of Alligator Alley. Owner Jeffrey Loria was cementing his reputation as Baseball’s Angel of Death, perhaps killing off a second franchise in furtherance of bud Bud’s evil contraction plot. Then, like something out of a Disney flick, a gruff, but lovable old coot comes out of retirement, whips his young pups into shape. Everyone learns to win with a smile. Gramps’ secret? Power pitching and just enough offense (the Philly meltdown didn’t hurt). The show stars Trader Jack McKeon as the irascible coot. Great supporting cast of power pitching studs Dontrelle Willis, Josh Beckett and Brad Penny. Catch it soon. Its run should be shorter (but more entertaining) than “Gigli.”

How It’ll End: Eight playoff teams. Only one World Series winner. Yet the Baseball Fish are guaranteed to be the only team that does not go home a loser. How? Just by making the playoffs, they’ve already won. Of course, the last time they were in as a wild card, they won it all. Of course, they then fielded an All-Star line-up anchored by a healthy Kevin Brown as the big-game starter, and an offense studded with bombers Gary Sheffield and Moises Alou. The only similarity between today’s and 1997’s Marlins is Jeff Conine, back for an encore. The fate of these Fish? Out in four to the G-men.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Final record: 100-61. G-men didn’t need no stinkin’ home field advantage last year.
vs. opponent: 4-2 vs. Marlins; 4-2 vs. Braves; 2-4 vs. Cubs

Player to Watch: Rich Aurilia. Someone has to step up and take some of the load off Barry’s back. Aurilia came up big in last year’s playoff run and needs to do so in ‘03.

The Story So Far: As long as the Giants have Barry Bonds and GM Brian Sabean, they seem to replace ever other cog without missing a beat. Lost the best manager in the team’s California history? Hire quiet Felipe Alou, pull off an upgrade. Lose your redneck, power-hitting All-Star second baseman? Go get two! Both Ray Durham and Eric Young can score runs by the bushel basket. Then Jason Schmidt becomes a legitimate #1 starter and Cy Young frontrunner. Once again, the Giants have built a team whose whole is much greater than the sum of its parts.

How It’ll End: How weird is it when Barry Bonds is your sentimental choice to win it all? When Bonds returned to the line-up after his father’s death and, first game back, hit a home run off Randy Johnson, then had to be removed from the game with an outrageously rapid heartbeat (150 bpm), the set up for the Hollywood ending seemed to be in place. The Great Ones do not always get a championship during their careers. Ted Williams, for instance. Barry is one of the legends of the game. This is his last chance to win a World Series. Last year his goal was to get to the World Series and he achieved that. This year his goal is to win. He’s on target for achieving that goal too. And, strangest of all, America is ready to celebrate Barry finally winning one, too.

Sept. 30, 2003