Baseball

LAS VEGAS – The most perfect number in nature is three. The Holy Trinity. Three dimensions. Three primary colors. And baseball is the one sport built largely on the harmony of the number three. Three strikes. Three outs. Three groups of three are a team. Three groups of three innings is a game. The first third of the season is now in the books. Time to assess which of three categories each team falls into: playoff locks, playoff hopefuls, and the playoff hopeless. 

The late season performance of the Oakland A’s the last few seasons has distorted a simple truth about the baseball standings. Generally, by the one-third points, fans have a strong indication of who will make the playoffs. If the season had ended June 4, the Yankees, Twins, Mariners and Oakland A’s would be in. Over in the Senior Circuit, the A-Braves, Cubbies, Giants, and Les Expos would qualify. If history proves to be any guide – and baseball is the most history-driven of the professional sports – chances are excellent that at least six, maybe seven of those teams will still be playing come October. 

American League 

The Locks: Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins 

The 2003 World Champion Twins already are a playoff lock primarily because they play in an extraordinarily weak division. They are on track to be the only team over .500 in the sissy-wimp AL Central. 

For the Mariners, it is looking a lot like 2001, the year they finished with 116 wins. Sure, the Mariners looked good through much of 2002, only to collapse and miss the playoffs after they wore out from age and injuries. The team’s core is one-year older. Why should 2003 look more like 2001 than 2002? Young pitching. Gil Meche and Joel Pineiro have been awesome. This more than offsets the decline and fall of the ever-expanding Freddie Garcia (who appears to be gaining weight faster than a pregnant woman being force-fed Krispy Kremes). Garcia’s done nothing since the middle of last season. 

By the way, catch any of the Twins vs. M’s over the last two weekends? Baseball at its best, if you think baseball should be more than Home Run Derby. Intelligent, well-played games, featuring great defense (e.g., Ichiro getting two outfield assists in one inning) and an utter lack of mental errors. What a great ALCS these two teams could/should play. 

The Hopefuls: New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Oakland A’s, Anaheim Angels 

Five teams from the East and West will fight for the final two playoff spots. If you want the excitement back in baseball, pray for the A’s to miss the playoffs. Billy Beane’s scientific method is boring and tedious. It’s all about working pitch counts and waiting around for three-run homers. Yawn yawn yawn. All flavored with indifferent defense because Beane’s charts and graphs don’t value defensive skills like they do in first place Minnesota and Seattle. Yet as long as Zito, Hudson and Mulder are in the rotation, the A’s remain a likely candidate for the post-season. 

The Yankees are still the favorites to win the East outright because they are the Yankees. Yet their awful May (just 11-17), combined with deteriorating pitching, raise the caution flags. 

The Red Sox should hang with the Yanks all season, especially since they were just given a free upgrade to their pitching courtesy of the D-Backs. Yet there’s a feeling that they probably missed their best chance to take down the Pinstripers. While the Yanks struggled in May, the Sox also limped along under .500 for the month. They could have put the Yankees away, especially after Memorial Day when they beat the Yanks and led the division by 2 ½. They let the Yanks wriggle off the hook. 

After a bad April (10-18), the B-Jays had the best May in baseball (21-8). Such wild gyrations are wholly consistent with being young and up-and-coming. Expect the Jays to have a few more cold spells before the season is over. Their offense is way overachieving. Not only do they lead baseball in runs scored, they’ve scored 10 percent more runs than the second most prolific offense. When the offense comes back to earth, the Blue Jays will be grounded. 

The Angels are still in the race because they are the defending champs. They made the playoffs last year after a late surge. And unlike the A’s and M’s, the Halos have not yet played many games against the pathetic Central. Seeing the opposing team wearing Tiger or Royal uniforms could do wonders for the Angels place in the standings. 

The Hopeless: Kansas City Royals, Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers 

Well, at least Kansas City fans have those memories of that magical April to comfort them as the Royals fall flatter and farther. Texas is a good team trapped in an incredibly tough division. The presence of Lou Piniella in St. Petersburg has caused the D-Rays to cede the title of worst team in the AL to the awful Tigers. The only thing interesting in Detroit? Will young Mike Maroth (1-10) become the first player in more than 20 years to lose 20 games? 

National League 

The Locks: Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants 

Some year, some day, in some world, the Atlanta Braves will not win a division. That day has postponed indefinitely. The Braves have been surprisingly dominant on offense, while playing in a pitcher’s park. The veteran team is being paced by its youngsters. When we weren’t looking, Marcus Giles morphed into Ryne Sandberg. Or maybe big brother Brian is taking his hacks at the plate. And Rafael Furcal turned into A-Rod, hitting comfortably over .300 with power. How Furcal, playing for the over-exposed AOL Braves, is failing to lead NL shortstops in the All Star voting is the greatest voting mystery since Pia Zadora’s Golden Globe. 

As for the Giants, as long as Barry Bonds continues to be the greatest player in the world, they will be assured of making the playoffs. 

The Hopefuls: Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies, Montreal Expos, Los Angeles Dodgers 

June tends to be the cruelest month for Northside Chicago baseball fans. Historically, the Cubbies are more likely to enter June in first than to exit that way. This team is much improved from the 67-95 team from last year. But this division should be close, with the winner being held to under 90 victories. If Corkin’ Sammy suspension is upheld, the Cubs could be irreparably damaged in the standings, even with their deep and talented pitching staff. 

The Astros are slowly getting their act together after a weak start. The offense has been underperforming – ranked 11th in runs scored, 15th in slugging – which is unconscionably low in hitter-loving Enron Field (or whatever corporate name they affixed to that rightfield-less ballyard). The ‘Stros remain the only team in the Central capable of running off a 10-game winning streak and putting the division away. 

The Cards may field the best front eight position players in the National League, but they seem destined to hang out at one or two games over .500 for the duration of the season. Redbird pitching is even thinner than expected. 

The Reds are a one-dimensional team, playing in a ballpark where apparently forgot to elevate the pitcher’s mound. The result: young, promising Adam Dunn turned into the second coming of Dave Kingman, hitting more HR’s (18) than singles (16). 

Les Expos are fading fast on their killer road trip, which included “home” games nearly 2,000 miles away in Puerto Rico. 

Which means the battle for the NL Wild Card is likely to come down to two teams: the Phillies and the Dodgers. The Phillies pitching has been fabulous, but the offense has been mediocre at best. Someone needs to light a fire under these hitters. But who? Someone apparently put Zoloft in Larry Bowa’s Gatorade. The Phils have too much offensive weaponry to stay middle of the pack offensively. They better hope they’re bullpen doesn’t sink them before the hitting kicks in. 

Which leaves the Dodgers as the prime candidate for the fourth NL playoff spot. Dodger pitching has been baseball’s best. It needs to be. The offense is the worst in baseball outside Detroit, whose offense so lame – nearly 20 percent few runs scored than any other team in baseball – that it really shouldn’t be compared to major league franchises. 

The Hopeless: New York Mets, Florida Marlins, Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres 

The Padres and D-Backs are a special category of hopeless. The Padres have managed to pass the Tigers in total losses (although they have more wins). As for the Snakes, Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling are both on the DL. This is not a team unlucky with injuries. Frequent trips to the DL are the hallmark on an aging team and no team is older than Arizona. What about the Mets? The less said the better. The Pirates? The Brewers? Who?

June 7, 2003