Baseball

Related: 2004 season overview

By Charlie in the Trees
For Outsports

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
 

1. 1. MINNESOTA TWINS

Hot Twin: Justin Morneau. B.C.-born cutie is pegged as Twins first baseman of the future for a team. Newbies: Joe Nathan (RHP), Henry Blanco (C), Rick Helling (RHP), Jose Offerman (INF) Goners: A.J. Pierzynski, Everyday Eddie Guardado, LaTroy Hawkins, Dustan Mohr, Eric Milton, Kenny Rogers, Rick Reed, Denny Hocking Upside: The smartest-playing team in baseball. Twins baseball is a pleasure to watch. They generally play mistake free, each player always keeping himself in position to make the great defensive stop. They never beat themselves. Need proof? See how they absolutely have owned the lowly Detroit Tigers the last two seasons. This team performs up to the full limits of their physical talent. Downside: Something just wasn’t right about the 2003 Twins. Manager Ron Gardenhire took way too long to figure out that Johan Santana should have been in the starting rotation. When finally given the ball, Santana pitched like a true ace (until the postseason, that is). Despite occasional flashes, Torii Hunter spent the entire year mired in a slump (which thankfully did not affect his world-class defense). SS Cristian Guzman looked uncomfortable in the field all season long, maybe due to nagging injuries, showing a nasty pattern of balls that he used to reach passing beside his out-stretched glove. Bottom Line: Last year, I picked the Twins to win it all. I thought that the planets were perfectly aligned for the World Series to be won by a well-disciplined small market team who played exciting, tight defense. A team that had struggled since winning a World Series in the 1990s and who was saddled with playing in one of the most-maligned stadiums in baseball. Yup. Called that one right. Except that it was the Florida Marlins meeting those criteria. The erratic Twins did make the playoffs, losing in four to the Yankees in the only dud among six postseason series. This year, the Twins winning this weakened division is the surest bet in baseball. 2003 record: 90-72, 1st place, ALDS loss 2004 prediction: 87-75, 1st place

2. CLEVELAND INDIANS

Hot Tribesman: Jody Gerut. Second-year player out of Stanford is among the league leaders in wit, charm and intelligence. And he’s a cutie, to boot. Newbies: Jose Jiminez (RHP), Bob Howry (RHP), Ron Belliard (2B), Lou Merloni (INF) Goners: Dannys Baez (RHP), Ellis Burks (DH-DL) Upside: The rebuilding process continues. The Indians are sorting out their young talent, figuring who to keep and who to toss. Outfield and catcher are set. Moody CF Milton Bradley is coming off his break-out season. Jody Gerut established himself over in right. Victor Martinez appears to have won the catcher’s job over Josh Bard. Downside: Is the pitching good enough? Larger-than-life C.C. Sabathia (6'7", 290 pounds: that’s living large) lowered both his ERA and base-on-ball counts last year. But he cannot do it alone. The Tribe’s adequate bullpen (which will not suffer from the absence of accused homophobe Bob Wickman) will have suffer the affects of workaholism trying to bail out their young and struggling rotation. And is the infield good enough? Much easier to answer: No. The Tribe’s farm system is not as adept at cranking out the infielders. The setback in Brandon Phillips’s development means that second will be entrusted to the well-traveled Ronnie Belliard. Bottom Line: ESPN’s Rob Neyer picked the Tribe as his “sleeper” team for 2004. Good call. This team has been together, with its current manager Eric Wedge, since the minors. They won in the minors. They eventually will win in the majors. Expect a nice leap forward in 2004. 2003 record: 68-94, 4th place 2004 prediction: 80-82, 2nd place

3. KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Hot Royal: Carlos Beltran. Team MVP had his ticket punched for centerfield in Yankee Stadium. He did the unexpected and signed a contract extension. Newbies: Juan Gonzalez (OF), Benito Santiago (C), Scott Sullivan (LHP), Matt Stairs (OF), Kelly Stinnett (C) Goners: Raul Ibanez (OF), Michael Tucker (OF), Paul Abbott (RHP), Brent Mayne (C), Rondell White (OF) Upside: Are these really the small market Royals? Their two best players (Beltran, Mike Sweeney) are locked up for the foreseeable future. The farm system is producing. (See, e.g., Berroa, Angel, Rookie of the Year.) Big name free agents Juan Gonzalez and Benito Santiago are being added to the mix. Baseball is back in K.C. Downside: The Royals’ Achilles heel are their arms. Pitching is thin. At 10-8, 31 year old journeyman Darrell May was the staff ace, by default. A healthy Runelvys Hernandez and the continued development of Jeremy Affeldt would help. Bottom Line: Despite all the positives, look for a baby step backward. For most of 2003, the Royals were the feel-good story of the year. They made a huge leap forward, going from 62 to 83 wins. There is almost always a little backsliding after a team makes such a jump. And they finished four games over .500 despite being outscored by 31 runs. Usually that is a sign of disproportionally good luck, a fact that tends to balance out year to year. Of course, these trends could be overcome with good health from Mike Sweeney and a monster season from Juan Gonzalez (just 34, and starting the 16th season of his major league career). 2003 record: 83-79 (!), 3rd place 2004 prediction: 78-84, 3rd place

4. CHICAGO WHITE SOX

White Hot Sock: Aaron Rowand. Picking the hottest White Sock is not unlike choosing the most melodic Yoko Ono song. Newbies: Robert Person (RHP), Ozzie Guillen (manager) Goners: Roberto Alomar, Bartolo Colon, Carl Everett, Scott Sullivan, Flash Gordon, Brian Daubach Upside: Frank Thomas still can hit home runs and draw walks. Magglio Ordonez remains the most anonymous superstar in baseball. Mark Buehrle is still an absolutely stud horse, able to handle a heavy innings load. Downside: Unfortunately, Buehrle may be all the Sox have left in the pitching department. Bartoldo Colon is gone. Closer Billy Koch’s fastball has slowed down considerably (and all Koch does is throw fast). And coming off his out-of-nowhere 21-9 season and 2.90 ERA, starter Esteban Loaiza never will have another season even remotely good as last year. Even if he lives to 100 and is the star pitcher for the Sun City Knee Sox in the Carefree Retirement Ultra-Slo-Pitch League. Bottom Line: The ChiSox should be defending divisional champs. They had the most favorable runs-scored to runs-against ratio in the division. Usually that correlates to most wins. But given the numbers of players who left, or who had either career years or last hurrahs, it is very unlikely the Sox will be in a pennant race this year. 2003 record: 86-76, 2nd place 2004 prediction: 76-86, 4th place

5. DETROIT TIGERS

Hot Cat: Carlos Pena. Went to a Tiger game last season. Carlos’s bubblicious butt was the only thing worth watching from that 43-119 team. Newbies: Ivan Rodriguez (C), Ugueth Urbina (RHP), Fernando Vina (2B), Rondell White (OF), Carlos Guillen (SS), Esteban Yan (RHP), Bobby Estalella (C) Goners: Shane Halter, Ramon Santiago, Dean Palmer (retired) Upside: The Tigers added some good players, some of whom may even be durable enough to last the full season. New catcher Ivan Rodriguez will not be one of them. At age 32, I-Rod is elderly for a full-time catcher. He has logged significant DL time in three of the last five seasons. Yellow caution flag. And anyone else view his public statements during his contract negotiations as some sort of cry for help? He repeatedly announced how close he was to signing with Detroit, almost begging someone (i.e., the Marlins) to save him from signing. Of course, with the Urbina signing, I-Rod’s got to be happy now that the Kissing Fish have been reunited. And it feels so good! Sadly, the (victory-related) opportunities for lip-lock between I-Rod and Ugie will be far fewer on the struggling Tigers. Downside: There are some good players here. Jeremy Bonderman someday may emerge as a #1 starter. Carlos Pena may flash some of the potential he showed on Oakland’s sabermetric charts when he played in the minors there. But let’s get real. The Tigers do not have the horses. The pitching is awful, especially for a pitcher’s park. Bobby Higginson never again will hit well enough for fairly earn a starting outfield slot. His career year is now too far in the past. And the infield defense is just plain terrible (which will make all that suspect pitching look even worse). Bottom Line: Things can’t get any worse, can they? A late win streak prevented the Tigers from equaling the 1962 Mets’ modern-era worst loss total of 120. While the ’62 Mets should be safe again this year, another triple-digit losing season is in store. And a special tip o’ the cap to hurler Mike Maroth who had the guts to lose 20 games last season (21, to be precise). In an age where overpaid stars ask out of situations to avoid negatively impacting their precious stats, it was nice to see Maroth take it up the you-know-what like the real man he is. 2003 record: 43-119, deep last place 2004 prediction: 56-106, last place