Baseball

Related: 2004 season overview

By Charlie in the Trees
For Outsports

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
 

1. 1. HOUSTON ASTROS

Hot 'Stro (pictured right): Brad Lidge. May end up the Astro closer before too long. His wholesome good looks are good reason to keep watching through all nine innings. Newbies: Andy Pettitte (LHP), Roger Clemens (RHP), Dave Veres (RHP), Brandon Duckworth (RHP) Goners: Billy Wagner, Geoff Blum, Mitch Meluskey, Ron Villone Upside: An already capable pitching staff will only get better with leadership and work ethic of Yankee refugees Andy Pettitte and Rocket Roger. Wade Miller, Roy Oswalt, and maybe even Brandon Duckworth and Tim Redding, will benefit from the role modeling. Downside: Age. Time is the enemy. Jeff Bagwell is starting to break down. Craig Biggio has nothing left in the tank. And perhaps the game passed by manager Jimy Williams. His team won far fewer games in 2003 than their runs scored/runs against ratio would have predicted. Bottom Line: Do these old veterans have one last pennant in them? Quite likeable (well, except for Jeff Kent). They have remained competitive for quite awhile. Seems like the “Bags” and “Bigs” combo should have won a pennant or two by now. It’s a lot like the 1996 Bob Dole campaign. One last mission. The ‘stros might just get the NL nomination, but they have no chance to win it all. 2003 record: 87-75, 2nd place 2004 prediction: 88-74, 1st place

2. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Hot Card: Bo Hart. Bubbly-butted second baseman was a sparkplug in 2003. Newbies: Jeff Suppan (RHP), Reggie Sanders (OF), Jason Marquis (RHP) Goners: Tino Martinez, Fernando Vina, J.D. Drew, Eli Marrero, Miguel Cairo, Sterling Hitchcock, Jeff Fassero, Mike DeJean Upside: Cards field a core group of superstudly superstars better than any other in baseball 2004, including the Yankees. In fact, with A-Rod moving to a less-demanding defensive position, Albert Pujols may now step up and be crowned the game’s most valuable player. Thank God he’s never suffered an A-Rod type name-truncation. No one wants to cheer for an “A-Pooh”. Downside: Cards missed the playoffs because of atrocious starting pitching. Their solution? <cringe> Add Jeff Suppan. </cringe> Boston’s mid-season acquisition of Suppan last year was so crucial to their run that Suppan was left off the playoff roster. Redbird Nation must hope that ex-Brave Jason Marquis, stolen for oft-injured J.D. Drew and Eli Marrero, is ready to go in ’04. Bottom Line: Looks like a team destined to fall just short again this year. Holes in the outfield. Holes in the rotation. Even now a hole in the previously stellar infield defense as Pujols’s leaden glove goes on first. 2003 record: 85-77, 3rd place 2004 prediction: 87-75, 2nd place

3. CHICAGO CUBS

Hot Cubbie: Corey Patterson. Do I get to pick only one Cubbie? What a hot team. Young centerfield was on the DL and got no post-season exposure last year. Wouldn’t mind seeing this stud more exposed. Newbies: Greg Maddux (RHP), Derrek Lee (1B), Todd Walker (2B), LaTroy Hawkins (RHP), Ryan Dempster (RHP), Michael Barrett (C) Goners: Eric Karros, Kenny Lofton, Shawn Estes, Doug Glanville, Hee Seop Choi, Randall Simon, Dave Veres, Antonio Alfonseca, Tony Womack, Damian Miller Upside: Best pitching staff in the league. The Cubs’ all-star staff got deeper with the return of Greg Maddux and the additions of Ryan Dempster and set-up man extraordinaire LaTroy Hawkins. Downside: Aging core. Manager Dusty Baker likes to field a line-up of well-worn veterans. Slammin’ Sammy Sosa will continue to hit homers at age 35, ‘roids or no ‘roids, but 37 year old Moises Alou is on the decline and has never had back-to-back healthy seasons his entire career Bottom Line: They blew up the Bartman Ball, so the curse has been lifted, hasn’t it? The new curse will be Dusty Baker’s reputation for burning out pitching arms. Coming off heavy regular-season innings loads combined with two playoff rounds, both aces Mark Prior and Kerry Wood are on track for arm trouble in ’04. 2003 record: 88-74, 1st place, NLCS loss 2004 prediction: 83-79, 3rd place

4. MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Hot Brewer: Scott Podsednik. Legitimate #1 draft pick for anyone’s fantasy team. Oh yeah, and a solid late round pick for that other type of fantasy baseball, too. Newbies: Junior Spivey (2B), Craig Counsell (INF), Lyle Overbay (1B), Ben Grieve (OF) Goners: Richie Sexson, John Vander Wal, Royce Clayton Upside: Trading one superstar for a boatload of “pretty good” players generally is a loser’s game. But for the Brew Crew, trading Richie Sexson (with two throw-ins) for six adequate players is a defensible strategy. That is: if you are looking to move from a 60-69 win club and go all the way to a .500 team. A worthy goal in Beer Land. Adding Lyle Overbay, Junior Spivey, Chad Moeller and Craig Counsell not only is defensible, but intelligent. It eliminates the risk of a second hundred-loss season in three years. Downside: Pitcher Ben Sheets has yet to realize more than a fragment of his unlimited potential. He turned in another year with an ERA in the mid-fours. At age 25, this is the year for him to starting step forward. And when he does, it will be a lonely charge as the pitching is very suspect after Sheets. Bottom Line: They can’t keep having losing seasons in perpetuity, can they? Eleven losing seasons in a row. Best record since joining the NL in 1998? 74-87. Thirteen games under .500. 2003 record: 68-94, last place 2004 prediction: 79-83, 4th place

5. CINCINNATI REDS

Hot Red: Austin Kearns. Perhaps losing cutie Kearns for the season back on July 8 contributed to the bad reviews from the newly opened Great American Ballpark. Newbies: Cory Lidle (RHP), John Vander Wal (OF) Goners: Ryan Dempster, Russell Branyan, Luke Prokopec Upside: Reports from Spring Training about Junior Griffey are glowingly positive. Terrific attitude (perhaps it’s the trade rumors). And healthy to boot (perhaps the trade rumors too). Griffey might make it all the way to June before his regularly-scheduled season-ending injury. With just under 500 career homers, Griffey’s still a first-ballot Hall of Famer. But with his fragile body (bad ankle, bum shoulder, thin skin), the end is near. Downside: The Reds inexplicably retained manager Dave Miley, who went a miserable 22-35 after the team fired an overmatched Bob Boone in late July. He must have satisfied the most important criterion listed on the Reds manager’s job description: works cheap. Bottom Line: Has any team declined farther from Opening Day 2003 to today? The 2004 season could be the worst thing to hit Cincinnati since Nick Lachey said he wanted to be Mayor. However, on the off-chance that Griffey gets/remains healthy (doubtful), AND Adam Dunn recovers his batting stroke (likelier), this team could contend. Hey, it’s at least as probable as former Reds manager Jack McKeon coming out of retirement, taking over a last place team owned by Jeff Loria, and winning a World Series. 2003 record: 69-93, 5th place 2004 prediction: 68-94, 5th place

5. PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Hot Bucco: Rob Mackowiak. Utility player is first-team in the hottie department. Newbies: Raul Mondesi (OF) Chris Singleton (OF), Rick Reed (RHP), Randall “Sausage Beater” Simon (1B), Daryle Ward (OF), Jose Mesa (RHP) Goners: Reggie Sanders, Matt Stairs, Pokey Reese, Jeff D’Amico Upside: NC Park is a beauty. The golden sandstone motif is successfully incorporated in the interior design The outfield dramatically opens up to the distinctive Pittsburgh skyline and the Clemente Bridge If only the team were so thoughtfully constructed. Downside: Kris Benson was suppose to anchor the pitching staff. Or, given small market economics, to bring a boatload of prospects in a trade. When Benson first hit the former Steel City, reputed authority Pete Gammons predicted a Cy Young or two. After three straight seasons lost to injury, in whole or in part, and with Benson turning 30 this year, those predictions were obviously false prophesy. Bottom Line: There is a garbage barge floating alongside the Allegheny River, just above where it joins the Monongahela to form the Ohio. The Pirates are collecting the garbage and refuse of 29 other organizations, finding roster space for a motley assortment of cast-offs and attitude problems. Just one example: why not figure out a way to keep Brian Giles, instead of signing the poisonous Raul Mondesi? Manager Lloyd McClendon has done a masterful job in his three seasons with the Buccos, but he’s got little with which to work this season. 2003 record: 75-87, 4th place 2004 prediction: 67-95, last place