Baseball

Related: 2004 season overview.

By Charlie in the Trees
For Outsports

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
 

1. FLORIDA MARLINS

Hot Fish (pictured right): Alex Gonzalez. Yes, the Marlins’ Alex Gonzalez. Flawless defense and Yankee-killing hitting are so sexxxy Newbies: Armando Benitez (RHP), Hee Seop Choi (1B) Goners: Ivan Rodriguez, Derrek Lee, Ugueth Urbina, Braden Looper, Juan Encarnacion, Mark Redman Upside: They can actually get better. For starters, the starters: A.J. Burnett will return from a season-long stint on the DL. With his handling of Josh Beckett, folk hero/manager Jack McKeon proved capable of working an injured fireballer back to dominance. Young stud outfielders Miguel Cabrera and Juan Pierre (the best true lead-off hitter in baseball) are still on the upside: they are getting better. Downside: The Marlins’ traditional post-World Series roster-gutting was relatively mild this time. The bullpen thinned some. They lost a spare outfielder. Who will be missed the most? Not I-Rod, who was unlikely to stay healthy a second consecutive season anyway. Try Gold Glove 1B Derrek Lee. Hee Seop Choi will get a legit shot at replacing Lee at least on offense, something that rookie-phobic Dusty Baker could not do in Chicago. Bottom Line: If the Marlins can make the playoffs, they have to be the favorite to win the NL pennant. They are the ones with Josh Beckett. Sabermetrics says there no such thing as “clutch,” but Beckett’s Game 6 shutout was one for the ages. Interesting. Jack McKeon defies conventional wisdom and rides his horse past the point where any reasonable person would have taken Beckett out of the game. (Actually, a reasonable person would never have started him, given the terrible record of World Series pitchers on three days’ rest). Both end up World Series heros. Poor Grady Little rides his horse Pedro Martinez deep in the ALCS’s decisive game and he’s a goat for the ages. 2003 record: 91-71, 2nd place, World Series champions 2004 prediction: 88-74, 1st place, NL champions

2. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Hot Phil: Pat Burrell. You want variety in my annual choices for team hottie? Look for teams without someone as scorching as the Freeballer. Newbies: Billy Wagner (LHP), Eric Milton (LHP), Tim Worrell (RHP), Shawn Wooten (INF), Doug Glanville* (OF, and once again, playing for an “East Coast franchise” and still “a very recognizable media figure all the same”) Goners: Jose Mesa, Brandon Duckworth, Turk Wendell Upside: More talent on paper than any team in the NL. In Strat-o-matic Leagues across America, the Phils will win the division, and the NL pennant, about 80% of the time. The missing puzzle was snapped into place with closer Billy Wagner (and ageless Tim Worrell) coming in to replace the execrable Jose Mesa. All that and the coolest new concession store at any ballyard: Citizens Bank Park’s “Make Your Own Phanatic” shop, a self-stuffing toy store modeled after the Build-a-Bear franchises. Downside: Strong candidate to be disproportionally hit by the injury bug. Infield corners Jim Thome and David Bell already are down. While Bell’s loss is unnoticeable, Thome must get healthy quickly or else the Phils’ offense will stall. Also look for new pitcher Eric Milton to miss several chunks out of the season, because that’s what Miltie does. Bottom Line: They should win, but will they? The biggest hole on this team remains the one between manager Larry Bowa’s ears. He was inexplicably retained to manage a team with a legitimate shot at winning at all. To be blunt. Bowa is a jerk. Other managers (Billy Martin, Dick Williams) have had great short-term success playing this shtick – picking out one player to scapegoat for all the team’s problems and driving him off the roster. Usually they win fast and are gone soon, quickly wearing out whatever welcome they once had. This is now three years into Bowa’s reign. So far, Bowa has stupidly chosen to pick out his then-best player Scott Rolen (2001-02), followed by his best pinch hitter Tyler Houston (2003). Works better with Ed Whitson. Who will Bowa alienate in ‘04? He’s already ruined Pat Burrell’s career, why not make the damage permanent? The best scenario for this team is falling to 9-17 at the end of April. Fire Bowa and hire a “player’s manager”. Mike Hargrove is looking for work. Thome likes him. Grover’s low-key style would have this team in the playoffs. Bowa’s over-caffeinated technique is doomed to fail. 2003 record: 86-76, 3rd place 2004 prediction: 86-76, 2nd place Footnote: I am not saying Doug Glanville is the infamous “gay ballplayer”. I’m definitely not claiming he’s the anonymous Lemon “boyfriend.” I’m just noting the fact that the same ballplayer who made bizarre comment last season about the Wrigley ivy turning “fuchsia” was at it again. He wrote an article for ESPN about an off-season trip to South Africa in which he relayed a conversation with a South African local who, about baseball, “Nice outfits! Skin tight pinstripes are just one small step away from leotards.” Talk about the proverbial purse falling out. Doug, Doug, Doug. It’s not much of a closet if the walls are pink, with leopard-print window treatments, all guarded by a shih-tzu.

3. ATLANTA BRAVES

Hot Brave: Mike Hampton. Mark DeRosa may have the hotter body. And Marcus Giles may have the cuter face. But, as they once said of David Lee Roth in the “Just a Gigolo” video, Mike’s got “cha-rasma”. Newbies: J.D. Drew (OF), Eli Marrero (OF-C), Antonio Alfonseca (RHP) Goners: Everyone, it seems: Greg Maddux, Gary Sheffield, Javy Lopez, Vinny Castilla, Robert Fick, Shane Reynolds, etc., etc. Upside: The Braves have been so talented that they could lose the aforementioned collection of talent and still field a solid core of All-Stars and candidates. They got Chipper. Andruw Jones still plays a magnificent centerfield that will make their pitchers look better. Dr. Llewellyn’s star patient, John Smoltz) anchors the bullpen: when healthy. Rafael Furcal and Marcus Giles (who most assuredly will cut back on the Ryne Sandberg impression in 2004) still fill the middle infield. Downside: A talent hemorrhage on the scale of what one would expect from a mismanaged small-market basket case, not from a team coming off a record-obliterating 12-straight divisional titles. Leo Mazzone may be the best pitching coach in baseball – he did phenomenal work last year turning Russ Ortiz into a Cy Young candidate – but he’s going to have to do his best work yet to pull together a staff from the Ranger rejects and circus freaks left over. Bottom Line: The Braves Era has ended. Bobby Cox’s string of 13 consecutive seasons of managing winning teams will end. No team possibly could survive a blood-letting like the one the Braves just experienced. The only question is depth and width of the coming trough. 2003 record: 101-61, 1st place, NLDS loss 2004 prediction: 79-83, 3rd place

4. NEW YORK METS

Hot Met: Grant Roberts. And, no, I haven’t been smoking something. Newbies: Kaz Matsui (SS), Mike Cameron (CF), Braden Looper (RHP), Scott Erickson (RHP), Shane Spencer (OF) Goners: Tsuyoshi Shinjo, Tony Clark Upside: The new commitment to defense is a smart strategy in pitcher-friendly Shea Stadium. If Mike Piazza moves to first base, the Mets up-the-middle defense could be the best in the league, or at least as good as the Marlins or the Cardinals. Downside: Elderly pitching: Al Leiter, Tommy Glavine, Steve Trachsel, Scott Erickson (currently in the minor league camp) and 43 year old John Franco in the pen, now the George Blanda of baseball. That’s not a pitching staff; it’s an AARP meeting. Day games will have to end by 4:30 so they can catch the early bird special at Denny’s. These pitchers are so old, that on road trips, they stay in their rooms and watch: CBS. Bottom Line: A team on the upswing. The Kaz Matsui signing was huge, improving the team offensively and defensively. Jose Reyes’s superstar potential is not just New York hype. If Reyes handles the shift to second, necessitated by the Matsui signing, the Mets will be on the cusp of contending. Manager Art Howe is great at molding teams into contenders; his problem has been getting that freshly-molded talent to win a playoff series. 2003 record: 66-95, last place 2004 prediction: 78-84, 4th place

5. MONTREAL EXPOS

Le Hottie: Tony Armas. Has that mono-brow look going, but in a sexy sort of way Newbies: Nick Johnson (1B), Carl Everett (OF), Tony Batista (3B), Gregg Zaun (C) Goners: Vlad Guerrero, Javier Vazquez, Michael Barrett, Fernando Tatis, Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez Upside: Much more of the talent core of this team remained together than anyone would have guessed going into Year 3 of baseball’s experiment in collective ownership. While the great Vladimir Guerrero is gone, All-Star Jose Vidro, and All-Star caliber Orlando Cabrera remain. Package-grabbing Javier Vazquez was traded for a serviceable batch of Yankee talent. And the new catcher, cannon-armed Brian Schneider, will be fun to watch. But let’s be real: the talent is thinning rapidly. Downside: Not enough pitching. Too many road games. Including another 22 down in Puerto Rico. Bottom Line: Baseball absolutely promises that this is the last season for baseball in French Canada and, more importantly, the last season for collective ownership of Les Expos. The new home should be announced by All-Star time. (If you thought fan indifference was a problem before, as a great Canadian once said, “you ain’t seen n-n-nothin’ yet.”) Baseball’s three-year ownership of this franchise may well be the most disgraceful aspect of Bud Selig’s failed tenure as Baseball Commissioner (well, except for the whole “cancellation of the World Series” thing). With committed ownership, this rapidly-depleting collection of talent could-a been-a contend-a. 2003 record: 83-79, 4th place 2004 prediction: 71-91, last place