Baseball

Related: 2004 season overview

By Charlie in the Trees
For Outsports

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
 

1. 1. LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Hot Dodger: David Ross. Back-up catcher with the sexiest self-deprecating sense of humor. Newbies: Jeff Weaver (RHP), Bubba Trammell (OF-1B), Juan Encarnacion (OF) Goners: Kevin Brown, Brian Jordan, Jeromy Burnitz, Paul Quantrill, Fred McGriff, Mike Kinkade Upside: The 2004 Dodgers, like all great L.A. Dodger teams, feature superstar pitching. The quality starts at the end, as closer Eric Gagne is coming off the best season for a reliever in nearly a generation. While they lost fragile Kevin Brown to the Yanks, they in turn got Jeff Weaver (definitely another name to add to the “should never play in New York” list). Even better, Rookie of the Year frontrunner Edwin Jackson will be throwing heat wearing Dodger Blue. Downside: The 2003 Dodgers had the worst offensive attack in baseball, even after correcting for the fact that Dodger Stadium is a premier pitcher’s park. In the off-season, they lost what passed for power hitters. Pitchers throwing goose eggs is not enough; the Dodgers will have to score to win. Bottom Line: New ownership committed to becoming Steinbrenner West. Is that good or bad? Both! If L.A. is anywhere near a pennant in late July, this is one team that will take on payroll and do what it takes to then win now. Manager Jim Tracy has gotten the most from his teams three years running. If he has just a little Joe Torre in him, he should be managing his first division winner. 2003 record: 85-77, 2nd place 2004 prediction: 92-70, 1st place

2. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Hot G-Men: Dustan Mohr. It’s the butt. Now on display in a city that appreciates quality male buttocks. Newbies: A.J. Pierzynski (C), Dustan Mohr (OF), Michael Tucker (OF) Goners: Rich Aurilia, Tim Worrell, Benito Santiago, Jose Cruz Jr., Joe Nathan, Marvin Benard, Sidney Ponson, Eric Young Upside: Great manager in Felipe Alou. The greatest offensive player in the game – in both meanings of the word – in Barry Bonds. And a pretty decent pitching staff, who get to throw to a colorful, quotable man loved only by his teammates and immediate family: A.J. Pierzynski. If Robb Nen comes back, the loss of Tim Worrell will be unnoticeable. Downside: Too many holes to fill from off-season losses. Only J.T. Snow remains from the Giants’ 2002 World Series infield. And he was probably the first who should have been replaced. Edgardo Alfonso has been unproductive since the Bush/Gore election. Bottom Line: How will prickly Barry Bonds handle the season-long steroids controversy? Whether or not he’s using (and personally I find Andy Van Slyke to be a credible witness), Bonds will be hassled and haunted by the allegations all year long. And his teammates might get drawn into the maelstrom. Worse for Barry, there is a definite sense that Barry’s last best chance at winning a World Series in San Francisco slipped away when Ivan Rodriguez held on to the ball in last year’s Giants/Marlins divisional series. 2003 record: 100-61, 1st place, NLDS loss 2004 prediction: 88-74, 2nd place, wild card

3. COLORADO ROCKIES

Hot Rock: Aaron Miles. Young second baseman kinda-sorta looks like a young Mike Hampton. Yummm. Let’s hope his Coors career turns out better. Newbies: Jeromy Burnitz (OF), Vinny Castilla (3B), Shawn Estes (LHP), Turk Wendell (RHP), Joe Kennedy (LHP), Denny Hocking (INF) Goners: Jay Payton, Jose Jiminez, Gregg Zaun, Chris Stynes, Mark Bellhorn, Bobby Estalella Upside: Could a healthy Jeromy Burnitz hit 50+ home runs in Coors? Is Preston Wilson poised for a monster year now that he has had a season to acclimated to the high elevation? And if either does, how would that help them get some pitching? Downside: Much less roster muscle since Opening Day 2003 as Jay Payton, Gabe Kapler and Bobby Estalella are now shaking their groove thangs at much lower elevations. Of course, you don’t need Barry Bonds’s chemist to hit home runs in Coors Field. Bottom Line: Weird fact: the Rockies have more players using other people’s names than any other team in baseball ever. They have a shortstop named “Luis Gonzalez,” who obviously is not the Luis Gonzalez. They got a pitcher named “Javier Lopez,” who, just by looking at his glutes, clearly is not the Javier more commonly known as “Javy.” And the assumed names are not just from the world of baseball. Politics, too. They have one pitcher named Joe Kennedy (a lefty, figures) and another named Allan Simpson (throwing, you guessed it, from the right). 2003 record: 74-88, 4th place 2004 prediction: 84-78, 3rd place

4. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Hot Snake: Steve Sparks. Veteran knuckleballer floats over from Oakland. He’s 37 and still does not look a day over 23. A true role model. Newbies: Richie Sexson (1B), Roberto Alomar (2B), Casey Fossum (LHP), Steve Sparks (RHP), Shane Reynolds (RHP), Brent Mayne (C) Goners: Mark Grace (retired), Curt Schilling, Junior Spivey, Lyle Overbay, Craig Counsell, Raul Mondesi, Miguel Batista Upside: Getting younger! Last season, the D-Backs were poised for burial when several elderly veterans went on the DL. Instead, they jumped back into the race led by youngsters like pitcher Brandon Webb (who, incidentally, should have been Rookie of the Year, and I love the D-Train Dontrelle Willis). They then stole power-hitting Richie Sexson from M’waukee in a classic quality-for-quantity trade. The Snakes depth and farm system allowed them to pull off the move. Downside: Getting older, too. Randy Johnson turned 41 and is coming off his worst season since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Centerfielder Steve Finley is pushing 40. Luis Gonzalez, age 36, still has elbow problems. And while I love Roberto Alomar as much as the next guy (well, maybe not literally, if the rumors are true), he has nothing left at age 36 and two soul-destroying years with the Mets. Bottom Line: When the D-Backs came into the league in 1998, they bragged about building their team around players with great character. Last season, on the verge of collapse, they added fag-hatin’ Shea Hillenbrand and self-centered Raul Mondesi. Hillenbrand is back. So much for wanting players of good character. So even if Sexson has a monster season, look for the Snakes to slither in place. 2003 record: 84-78, 3rd place 2004 prediction: 84-78, 3rd place

5. SAN DIEGO PADRES

Hot Daddy: Tom Wilson. Up for some heavy petting at Petco? Pic is from his Blue Jays days. Newbies: David Wells (LHP), Ramon Hernandez (C), Terrence Long (OF), Jay Payton (OF), Jeff Cirillo (3B), Ismael Valdes (RHP), Sterling Hitchcock (LHP), Tom Wilson (C), Petco Park Goners: Mark Kotsay, Wiki Gonzalez, Gary Matthews Jr. Upside: Rey Ordonez won’t play in Peoria. Peoria, Arizona, that is. Ordonez took his act on the road, leaving Padre camp after learning rookie Khalil Greene would be the starting shortstop. Definitely a positive trend at La Casa de los Padres. Downside: Taking the Brewer approach to building a franchise. In an attempt to field a competitive team in Year One of waterfront Petco Park, the Pads loaded up on yard-sale priced veterans. Some of the new old-timers (Ramon Hernandez, muscle-god Jay Payton) should contribute; others (David Wells, Jeff Cirillo) should have been left on the shelf. Bottom Line: Changing logo and colors won’t change reality. The Padres are destined for last. Frequent color and logo changes are indicative of status as a loser. Granted, the Padres appropriately deep-sixed their original mustard yellow, chocolate brown togs a few years back. Now they are using some Carolina blue logo with waves that fits the team moniker only if Junipero Serra were a surf dude. If the young pitching pans out, they may win 75 games, tops. But that still should be good only for last place. 2003 record: 64-98, last place 2004 prediction: 69-93, last place