Baseball

By Sean Holihan
For Outsports.com

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
 

1. FLORIDA MARLINS

Fresh fish:  Paul Lo Duca.  He gives Florida someone who can put up around the same numbers Ivan Rodriguez did at the backstop.    New Arrivals:  1B Carlos Delgado, LHP Al Leiter, RHP Antonio Alfonseca, RHP John Riedling, RHP Jim Mecir  Departures:  RHP Armando Benitez, 1B Wil Cordero, RHP Carl Pavano, RHP Chad Fox, C Mike Redmond, RHP Rudy Seanez, RHP David Weathers  Upside:  This lineup is dangerous.  With the addition of Delgado, this team now has everything it needs to get back to the playoffs.  As long as Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo keep getting on base, Delgado, Mike Lowell and Miguel Cabrera should each drive in more than 100 RBI.    Downside:  Carl Pavano leaves Florida and takes his 18 wins with him.  No one on this team won more than 10 games last year and that includes free agent Al Leiter.  Most of the younger pitchers on this staff haven’t had an injury free season yet.  Josh Beckett is supposed to break out any day now and become the next Nolan Ryan, but we’ve yet to see that coming.    Bottom line:  Last year this team was good enough for third in their division.  Now with Delgado and another year behind Dontrelle Willis and A.J. Burnett these guys should and will finally stop the Braves reign atop the NL East.  2004 record:  83-79, 3rd 2005 prediction:  95-67, 1st

2. ATLANTA BRAVES

On the warpath:  Mike Hampton.  Was there ever any doubt?  He just personifies the word athlete.    New Arrivals:  RHP Tim Hudson, OF Brian Jordan, OF Raul Mondesi, RHP Dan Kolb  Departures:  RHP Antonio Alfonseca, RHP Paul Byrd, OF J.D. Drew, OF Charles Thomas, RHP Russ Ortiz, RHP Juan Cruz, INF Mark DeRosa, RHP Jose Capellan  Upside:  Bringing Tim Hudson and John Smoltz to this rotation once again gives the Braves one of the best in baseball.  Both of those guys are certified aces.  They are backed up by veterans Hampton, John Thomson and promising 24-year-old Horacio Ramirez.  Danny Kolb comes in from Milwaukee to replace John Smoltz as the closer.   Downside:  Too bad the lineup can’t match the pitching staff.  Chipper and Andruw Jones both had their usual good seasons and catcher Johnny Estrada made the critics of the Kevin Millwood for Estrada trade quiet down.  Otherwise, there are questions about the health and effectiveness of this club.  Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi are both getting older and are huge injury risks.  Only Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, Estrada and backup first baseman Julio Franco played in more than 120 games last season.  Also, Smoltz hasn’t pitched more than 200 innings since 1997.  He originally was moved to the bullpen because of injury concerns.  The Braves are crossing their fingers hoping that the move won’t cost them their ace/closer.  Bottom line:  This rotation might single-handedly lead the Braves to the playoffs.  But everything has to break right.  Smoltz has to be able to pitch a whole season, Thomson and Hampton have to come back from offseason surgery, Horacio Ramirez has to live up to his billing and closer Dan Kolb has to prove that he can be successful for more then two years on a club that’s going to be needing those final innings from it’s bullpen.   2004 record:  96-66, 1st 2005 prediction:  90-72, 2nd (finally)

3. NEW YORK METS

Your Mr. Met:  David Wright.  This guy is all heart and every fan’s wet dream.  Or maybe that’s just me.  New Arrivals:  CF Carlos Beltran, RHP Pedro Martinez, 1B Doug Mientkiewicz, SS Chris Woodward, INF Miguel Cairo, LHP Kazuhisa Ishii, LHP Felix Heredia, LHP Dae-Sung Koo  Departures:  C Vance Wilson, C/1B Joe Phillips, LHP Al Leiter, RHP Ricky Bottalico, LHP John Franco, RF Richard Hidalgo, LHP Mike Stanton  Upside:  For years this team was at the bottom of the league for runs scored.  With new General Manager Omar Minaya at the helm, the Mets have changed dramatically in a short time.  Copying off of Florida, the Mets have put speedsters Jose Reyes and Kazuo Matsui at the top of their lineup.  The biggest offseason move was the signing of Carlos Beltran to the Mets.  This guy can do it all.  Expect a 30 home run/30 stolen base season from Beltran.  That gives the Mets three guys at the top of the lineup who can cause havoc on the base paths.  The Mets also signed Pedro Martinez to give the team new attitude and certifiable ace to lead this rotation.  Martinez already gets Cy Young mention just for switching to a pitcher’s park in the National League.      Downside:  There are injury questions involving right fielder Mike Cameron, left fielder Cliff Floyd and catcher Mike Piazza.  These guys have all missed playing time due to various injuries in the last year.  Old reliable Steve Trachsel will likely miss most of the season thanks to a herniated disk in his back.  The Mets’ relief pitching might be their Achilles heel.  Closer Braden Looper is good but he can’t pitch two to three innings every day.  There are still battles going on right now for roster spots in the bullpen.    Bottom line:  If this team stays healthy it could wind up grabbing the division title or wild card.  It’ll be a good year for Mets’ fans as the team comes back above .500 for the first time since 2001.  Unfortunately Florida and Atlanta are also counting on contending this year.  It’ll be a rough fight in the NL East, as every team but the Nationals has a valid shot at making the playoffs.  2004 record:  71-91, 4th 2005 prediction:  84-80, 3rd

4. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Favorite fanatic:  Pat Burrell.  Just look at this picture.  New Arrival:  RHP Cory Lidle, OF Kenny Lofton, RHP Terry Adams, RHP Jon Lieber, OF Jose Offerman  Departures:  RHP Kevin Millwood, LHP Eric Milton, RHP Felix Rodriguez, RHP Todd Jones, RHP Roberto Hernandez   Upside:  First baseman Jim Thome and right fielder Bobby Abreu are two of the game’s best players.  They can always be counted on to perform.  If Burrell is healthy and mentally ready this lineup could be very dangerous to face.  Their rotation is set with Lidle and Lieber both picked up through free agency.  Closer Billy Wagner is back this year after missing a large chunk of last season because of a torn rotator cuff.  Fired manager Larry Bowa has often said that Wagner would have been the difference last year in a tight NL East race.    Downside:  The pitching staff is good, but there is no ace on this team.  Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla have the tools to be 15 game winners but each missed time last year on the DL because of tendinitis.  Padilla will be starting the season on the DL for that very reason.  Burrell needs to be in tip-top shape and put up numbers like he did in the first two months of last year, when he hit 10 home runs and batted in 42 RBI.  It took him the rest of the year to equal those numbers.    Bottom line:  If Thome, Abreu and Burrell play up to their standards and the rest of the team gets healthy, the Phillies could make life hell for other teams. Count on Philadelphia to be a season-wrecker this year, not a pennant-chaser.  This team is good, just not good enough or healthy enough to overtake the other three teams ahead of it.    2004 record:  86-76, 2nd 2005 prediction:  81-81, 4th

5. WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Bureaucrat in your district:  Jose Guillen.  Some might call him a schmuck.  Well, I might too, but I can think of a couple other things to call him.  New Arrivals:  OF Jose Guillen, SS Cristian Guzman, 3B Vinny Castilla, RHP Esteban Loaiza, OF J.J. Davis, 1B Wil Cordero, RHP Antonio Osuna  Departures:  3B Tony Batista, C Einar Diaz, OF Juan Rivera  Upside:  Weeeee!  They’re out of Montreal!  Now they can play in …. RFK Memorial Stadium.  It isn’t exactly the nicest place to play either, but they’ll get a new stadium soon enough.  The point is they’re going to be playing in a place that’s dying to get a Major League team.  It’s got to be nice to have actual fans watching you play for a change.  This lineup isn’t as bad as you’d think actually.  Jose Vidro has been one of the games most underrated second baseman.  Outfielder Brad Wilkerson, catcher Brian Schneider and first baseman Nick Johnson are all solid.  Management has already brought in Guillen, Guzman and Castilla which should be an overall upgrade.   Downside:  Besides Livan Hernandez, this rotation cannot be counted upon to do anything but throw the ball at the catcher.  Zach Day has a lot of promise but that’s pretty much the only silver lining to this pitching staff.  Veteran Tony Armas is starting the season on the DL and closer Chad Cordero has less than 100 innings logged in the majors.    Bottom line:  This team will make a lot of fans while playing in DC.  Those fans just have to learn to be patient.  They still have to get an owner who may or may not spend money to contend.  There is a new stadium in their future.  Right now, they’re just happy to be there.  And hope to never return to Montreal.   2004 record:  67-95, 5th 2005 prediction:  70-92, 5th