Baseball

Related: 2005 season overview

By Sean Holihan
For Outsports.com

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
 

1. 1. SAN DIEGO PADRES

How about a little, “How’s your father?”:   Xavier Nady (right).  Manager Bruce Bochy recently said that he’ll get plenty of usage out of Nady.  He’s going to use him as a “super-sub,” getting in around 400 at-bats, seeing all three outfield spots and third base.  New Arrivals:  CF Dave Roberts, RHP Woody Williams, IF Geoff Blum, IF Eric Young, LHP Darrell May, OF Mark Sweeny  Departures:  CF Jay Payton, IF Ramon Vasquez, SS Rich Aurilia, OF Terrence Long  Upside:  With Dave Roberts taking over for Jay Payton in center field, the Padres have upgraded their offense by adding a true leadoff hitter and a genuine base stealing threat.  In 113 games last year, Roberts stole 38 bases with limited playing time.  As a team last year, the Padres stole 52 bases.  And that’s including two from pitcher Adam Eaton.  Also, their pitching staff is solid with Jake Peavy, Williams, Lawrence, and Eaton each capable of winning 12-15 games a piece.    Downside:  Oddly enough, their ballpark.  Outfielders Brian Giles and Ryan Klesko each had down years which were blamed on spacious Petco Park.  However, first baseman Phil Nevin had a 20 HR/100 RBI season and second baseman Mark Loretta had a career year.  So perhaps the ballpark wasn’t the culprit after all.    Bottom Line:  The Padres have things lined up to win this tough division.  If Peavy can repeat his performance last year, when he went 15-6 with a 2.27 ERA, a Cy Young trophy could be his to lose.  With Roberts and Loretta at the top of this lineup, Nevin, Giles and Klesko could each knock in 100 RBI.   2004 record: 85-75, 3rd   2005 prediction:  92-70, 1st

2. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Best-looking Goliath:  Jason Ellison.  He will probably land the job as fourth outfielder because of his adeptness at all three positions.  He’ll also make looking toward the outfield easier on the eyes.  New Arrivals:  RF Moises Alou, RHP Armando Benitez, C Mike Matheny, SS Omar Visquel  Departures:  C A.J. Pierzynski, RHP Rob Nen, RHP Dustin Hermanson, OF Ricky Ledee  Upside:  Defense.  This team has got to be one of the best defensive clubs in the league.  Matheny is widely regarded as the best defensive catcher in the league and Visquel is no slouch at shortstop either.    Downside:  Matheny and Visquel are both well-aged and light-hitting.  This team needed to get younger and better bats in front and behind LF Barry Bonds.  Speaking of Bonds, on March 17 he had his second arthroscopic knee surgery of the offseason.  The only reason this team isn’t ranked to carry the division is because of the injury questions surrounding Bonds.  Bottom Line:  This team isn’t going anywhere without Bonds.  Besides Alou, there isn’t a player on this team that is capable of hitting 100 RBI without Bonds walking 200 times to set them up.  The pitching staff is solid behind RHP Jason Schmidt, but not spectacular.  This team needs Bonds to avoid fighting with Colorado for fourth place.     2004 record:  91-71, 2nd   2005 prediction:  89-73, 2nd

3. LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Dodging street cars in LA:  Jason Werth.  He’s hoping to come back from a broken wrist to start the season in Left Field.  Lets hope we get to see more of this guy in the future.  But if Scott Erickson makes the team, he wins hands down. New Arrivals:  RHP Derek Lowe, 2B Jeff Kent, OF J.D. Drew, 3B Jose Valentin, C Paul Bako, C Dioner Navarro, 3B Norihiro Nakamura, OF Ricky Ledee, C Jason Phillips. Departures:  3B Adrian Beltre, CF Steve Finley, 1B/OF Shawn Green, 2B Alex Cora, IF Jose Hernandez, IF Robin Ventura, RHP Jose Lima, LHP Kazuisha Ishii. Upside:  Their pitching staff.  LHP Odalis Perez was resigned this offseason to give the Dodgers stability one through four.  Their closer Eric Gagne is the best in the league.  Downside:  Just like in 2003, their offense is going to be weak.  They did sign Jeff Kent and J.D. Drew to provide some spark to an otherwise anemic offense, but it won’t be enough to get them past the Giants and Padres.    Bottom Line:  The time for this team to win was last year.  They couldn’t keep Beltre, Cora or Finley and when they traded away C Paul Lo Duca, the Dodgers created a huge void both defensively and offensively.  Kent is aging and doesn’t have a Bonds, Bagwell, Berkman, or Beltran to hit behind.  I just can’t understand some of the moves General Manager Paul DePodesta has made in his first year and a half.     2004 record:  93-69, 1st  2005 prediction:  85-77, 3rd

4. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Favorite snake-handler:  Koyie Hill.  There is nothing like a strapping country boy to cool your blood in red-hot Arizona.  With an impressive spring he may land the starting catchers job.    New Arrivals:  3B/1B Troy Glaus, OF Shawn Green, RHP Javier Vazquez, SS Royce Clayton, OF Jose Cruz Jr., 1B Tony Clark, LHP Shawn Estes  Departures:  LHP Randy Johnson, 1B Richie Sexson, 1B/3B Shea Hillenbrand, 1B Carlos Baerga, OF Danny Bautista, RHP Matt Mantei  Upside:  This team may actually be better without Randy Johnson.  The pitching staff is improved with Javier Vazquez, RHP Russ Ortiz, RHP Brandon Webb and Shawn Estes forming a formidable 1-4.  Webb had a bad year last year if you look at his record (7-16) but when taking his ERA into account (3.59), you start to see the problem with Arizona last year:  no offense.  Hopefully, the D’Backs have taken care of that by bringing in Glaus, Green, and Cruz.    Downside:  Estes had a winning record last year with the Rockies at 15-8, but his ERA was a sky high 5.84.  You would automatically start to blame his ERA on the fact that he pitched half of his games at Coors, but take a look at something else.  Yes, his ERA at home was a bit lofty at 6.22, but his ERA on the road was only a bit lower at 5.53.  Last year, while playing for the Chicago Cubs, his ERA stood at 5.73.  I once heard this little quip while watching a ballgame some years ago, “How come you never hear aged right-handers referred to as crafty?  Because they’re selling cars right now.”  Same thing applies to Estes.  If he wasn’t a left-handed pitcher, Estes would be out of the league right now.  A quick note on the offense:  Green hasn’t had a par level season since 2002.  His batting average against left-handed pitchers since then has dropped from .270 in 2002, .252 in 2003, to .232 in 2004.  His numbers against right-handers has stayed around the same.    Bottom Line:  This may sound crazy, but this team could actually contend.  This division is four teams deep and if everything breaks right, it could get the Diamondbacks to the playoffs.  Glaus and LF Luis Gonzalez have to stay healthy, Green has to put up the numbers he used to three years ago and Estes has to earn the money he’s being paid.  If the other teams in this division fall under hard times because of injury concerns, don’t be surprised if the Diamondbacks pick up the slack.  2004 record:  51-111, 5th  2005 prediction:  81-81, 4th

5. COLORADO ROCKIES

Sexiest Mountain Man: Jorge Piedra.  I had to search around to find this guy’s pic.  Believe me, I was glad once I did.  He’ll back up previous winner Dustan Mohr in Left Field.  New Arrivals: OF Dustan Mohr, INF Desi Relaford  Departures: RF Jeromy Burnitz, 3B Vinny Castilla, SS Royce Clayton, LHP Shawn Estes, LHP Denny Neagle  Upside: The team is finally rebuilding. Colorado has just now figured out that they need to bring young pitchers up through the minors and teach them how to throw in high altitudes. They can’t just sign any pitcher with some amount of success and expect the same results. See: Neagle, Denny, /Hampton, Mike. Oddly enough, Jamey Wright and Joe Kennedy actually pitched better at home than on the road. They’ve also realized that signed old veterans for cheap isn’t the way to go either. Their entire lineup is composed of youngsters with 1B Todd Helton being the oldest at 31.   Downside: Their entire lineup is composed of youngsters. Besides Helton, CF Preston Wilson and the possible exception of LF Matt Holliday, there isn’t one player on this lineup that has proven he is even capable of playing everyday. Then, of course, is the oft cited problem with the pitching staff. Unless Colorado brings up nothing but ground ball pitchers, they are always going to have trouble.   Bottom Line: This team is actively and openly rebuilding. So it’s going to be a number of years before they even contend for a .500 record. Poor Todd Helton. This guy may go to the Hall of Fame when everything is said and done but we certainly won’t win a World Series Ring. Not with this team anyway. 2004 record: 68-94, 4th  2005 prediction: 64-98, 5th