Baseball

Related: 2006 season overview

By Bill Konigsberg
For Outsports.com

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
 

1. TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Hot Player: OF Reed Johnson is one of a handful of unsung young players who could quietly lead the Blue Jays to the playoffs after a lengthy hiatus. Cute, too. What I Did During My Winter Vacation: GM J.P. Ricciardi knew that he couldn’t stand pat and expect his Blue Jays to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox. So this winter, like all men do when they get anxious, he went shopping. And like so many of us, he decided to buy men. He bought a B.J. (Ryan). Satiated for just a brief moment, he went out and added an A.J. (Burnett). He bought Lyle Overbay and Troy Glaus to overhaul an infield that needed a power boost. He spent mad money, $102 million over five years for just the B.J. and A.J. alone. That’s like the equivalent of 408,000 home visits from your favorite porn star, for those keeping track at home.  Blood Is Thicker Than Money: Ryan and Burnett are good additions, and Overbay and Glaus have the possibility of being even better. Glaus has the power to lead the American League in home runs if he stays healthy, and Overbay probably hasn’t yet reached his ceiling. But if the Blue Jays are really going to contend in the East, it’s going to be the homegrown kids who’ll get the job done. Most everyone has heard of Vernon Wells. Wells needs to have the kind of year he had in ’04 (.317-33-117) if the Blue Jays want to win. Ditto Eric Hinske, who hasn’t been heard from since he won the Rookie of the Year Award in ’02. Mostly, the team needs a healthy Roy Halladay from start to finish. Halladay was on his way to a Cy Young Award season last year (12-4, 2.41) before breaking his leg in early July. He looks very good this spring. Inside The Numbers: Corner Infield Production, Blue Jays 2005*              2006* BA                   .289                 .267    HR                   29                   57       RBI                  127                 169 *combination of Eric Hinske, Corey Koskie, Shea Hillenbrand, Aaron Hill, Frank Menchino, and John McDonald as 1B/3B **Lyle Overbay and Troy Glaus in ‘05  Talk about an upgrade at the corners! Lyle Overbay and Troy Glaus together could easily mean an increase of about 30 home runs and 40 RBI over what the Blue Jays had last year at first and third. Outlook: Don’t be surprised if the Blue Jays win the East, and do so with standout performances by unheralded guys like RF Alexis Rios, 2B Aaron Hill, and SS Russ Adams. These guys were up-and-comers last year, and now there’s a strong supporting cast of veterans. On the mound, young Gustavo Chacin is a nice No. 3 after Halladay and Burnett. There’s so much young talent and depth here that this team looks a little bit like, gulp, the Chicago White Sox of last year. Prediction: 91-71 (2005 record: 80-82)

2. NEW YORK YANKEES

Hot Player: Yes, Kyle Farnsworth is good looking. But there isn’t a chance in hell I’m not putting up a picture of the hottest hitting coach in baseball, back in his heyday. Love ya, Donnie Baseball. What people are talking about: Oh that Johnny Damon. He’s cute. He looks like Jesus. Leading off in this lineup he’ll score 9 million runs. My feelings on the above platitudes: 1) Maybe 2) Definitely 3) Nuh-uh. I’ve heard all the talk about how this Yankees lineup is a modern-day Murderer’s Row, and I’m not buying it. Damon is a fine catalyst, A-Rod may be the best offensive player in the game, and there’s nothing wrong with an outfield flanked by Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui. But beyond that, there are plenty of teams that can keep up with this offense. Jason Giambi got hot late last year and may be back, but it was only two years ago that he looked to be done. Jorge Posada has fallen off, and Bernie Williams is but a shadow of his former self. Sure, the Yankees will score runs. But don’t expect records to be broken. The question is will they prevent runs from being scored, and that’s hard to say at this point. What people should be talking about: That pitching staff, that old, old pitching staff. Mike Mussina is 37 and hasn’t been an elite pitcher or even close since 2001. Randy Johnson’s strikeout rate declined alarmingly, from 10.6 in ’04 to 8.4 last year. He’s 42. This is what happens when you trade away all your developing talent for older players. Sooner or later, you get really old. This is that year. The team’s best starter may be Shawn Chacon. Many people think his 7-3, 2.85 in the last two months were a flash in the pan, but other than his disastrous experience as a closer a few years back, this guy has been an All-Star caliber starter in a bad pitching park for several years. He should win 15 games this year. Inside The Numbers: Per 9 innings, Randy Johnson, 2000-05             K         BB     2000    12.5     2.7       2001    13.4     2.5 2002    11.6     2.5 2003    9.9       2.1 2004    10.6     1.6  2005    8.4       1.9  Johnson has become a different pitcher in the last five years. While he no longer blows people away as he once did (he struck out fewer than one batter per inning for the first time since 1990), he has improved his control considerably, walking fewer than two batters per nine innings the last two years, for the first time in his career. Outlook: They’re still the Yankees, they still have more talent than any other team in the league. There’s no denying that. But this team appears perilously thin. Can you name the Yankees backups at key positions? No? With a team as old as this one, that’s not a good thing. Prediction: 86-76 (2005 record: 95-67)

3. BOSTON RED SOX

Hot Player: He starred for Canada in their shocking win over the U.S. in the World Basball Classic. My boyfriend Chuck didn’t care. He picked OF Adam Stern for his killer eyes. What Everyone (But Me) Thinks: Another Yankees-Red Sox showdown going down to the wire, with perhaps the improved Blue Jays closing in on the two powerhouses. Curt Schilling is healthy again, and new addition Josh Beckett, perhaps over the winter he got a fingerectomy that will prevent him from getting more blisters. David Ortiz can flat out hit, and the Red Sox have three proven veterans in their infield coming off down years in Mark Loretta, Alex Gonzalez, and Mike Lowell. Coco Crisp will easily step in and replace Johnny Damon’s production on the field, and even provide quiet leadership. And Manny Ramirez will be very content to stay in Boston. He certainly won’t ask for another trade. No way. Playoffs, first round at least in ’06. What Will Really Happen: I’m amazed at how much the so-called experts are staying on the Red Sox bandwagon, despite so many reasons to jump off. I’m way off. Schilling has been terrific for many years, and Beckett can be, but the other 60 percent of the rotation is adequate at best with aging David Wells, who may be traded, the enigmatic Matt Clement, who has never quite lived up to his billing and may be traded, and knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, who is always more effective than you’d expect him to be. The pitching is far more impressive than the offense. This team no longer resembles the one in 2003, when eight players drove in 80 or more runs. It’s hard to imagine more than three guys doing that this year (Ramirez, Ortiz, Varitek). This team will not score runs like they did in the past, will not scare anyone with their pitching, and has a bullpen in disarray. No playoffs, possibly not even a .500 record. That’s what this team is looking at this year if we don’t allow the Yankees-Red Sox rhetoric to blind us to reality. Inside The Numbers:             BA       HR       RBI 2003    .289     238      932 2004    .282     222      912 2005    .281     199      863 2006*  .277     197      842 *projected 25-man roster using ’05 stats, normalized to give normal number of team AB for season  Check out the trend for the Red Sox offense. Their best year was ’03, the year before the team won it all, but each year, the numbers have declined in batting average, home runs, and RBI. Based on what the players on this year’s 25-man roster did last year, that trend should continue in ’06.  Outlook: Here’s the trade, from the “Cowboy Up!” Red Sox of ’03 (really their best offensive team) to this year’s team: Johnny Damon, Kevin Millar, Bill Mueller, Todd Walker, Nomar Garciaparra for Coco Crisp, Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, Mark Loretta, Alex Gonzalez. Some call this a small downgrade. I’d call it an avalanche. Manny won’t last the year in Boston. Ortiz will still hit, but who will be on base? Even if Crisp has a good year and Loretta bounces back from injuries, it’s not going to be enough to counter a bottom of the lineup that won’t scare anyone. Schilling and Beckett are the best things about this team, and both are major injury risks. Without them, the bottom falls out in Beantown. Prediction: 77-85 (2005 record: 95-67)

4. TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS

Hot Player: SP Edwin Jackson has been lit up throughout his minor league career, but scouts have creamed over him for years. Here’s a guess that some fans will for years to come. The Future’s So Bright: Devil Rays fans have more to be excited about than Yankees fans. Perhaps it won’t happen this year, but intriguing things are in store for this young, vibrant franchise that is bursting with inexperienced talent. Sure, the Devil Rays have been a joke throughout their existence. Sure they’ve never not lost 90 games. Who cares? With Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Delmon Young, and B.J. Upton maturing, the future is neon bright in Tampa. Wake Up Call: Alas, someone needs to pitch. This isn’t slo-pitch softball, so a pitcher isn’t an afterthought. Yet somehow, it seems it is in Tampa Bay. Beyond Scott Kazmir, who some compare to a young Randy Johnson, and Seth McClung, who hits 100 mph with his fastball, this team is really adrift pitching-wise. Casey Fossum to the rescue? Doug Waechter? Who? And don’t ask about the bullpen, that’s an even bigger mess. To make things worse, their defense is horrific. If Upton makes the team and gets time at shortstop, his natural position, he’ll have to cut down on the 53 errors he made last year in the minors. Playing him and slugger Jorge Cantu at second is sort of like hanging a bunch of fly paper strips from the ceiling of Tropicana Field and releasing thousands of flies from home plate. A few flies might be caught, but far more are going to get through to the outfield. Inside The Numbers: A Tale of Two Halves – Devils Rays’ ML Ranks, ‘05                         1st Half             2nd Half BA                   11                    3  R                      15                    10 OPS                 23                    7 ERA                 30                    25   The Devil Rays were awful in the first half of ’05, but by the second half played better than .500 ball. Here’s why: The team got comfortable at the plate, posting a batting average 10 points higher in the second half, third-best in the majors at .279. And for all of the talk about their horrible pitching staff, there was improvement there, too. Tampa Bay posted a 4.80 ERA, 25th best in the league after the break. That was more than a run less than the 5.87 they posted before the All-Star break, worst in baseball. Outlook: At least fans have some things to smile about in Tampa. Finally. This team can’t help but score a bunch of runs this year, especially if Aubrey Huff moves to third to open an outfield/DH spot for Jonny Gomes (.282-21-54 in his rookie season) and either Joey Gathright, who may be the fastest man in baseball, or phenom Delmon Young. Expect a lot of 8-7 games. I envision the Rays staying in the hunt in a weakened AL East through August, before fading in September. Next year could be their year. Really. Prediction: 76-86 (2005 record: 67-95)

5. BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Hot Player: Javy Lopez. Hot hot hot hot hot. Too Many Catchers, Not Enough Pitchers: A team with two really good catchers is like a relationship with two really good bottoms. Discuss. I’m not at all sure this simile makes sense, but let’s follow it for a while. In both situations, the team has glaring weaknesses, or could have chosen a more fitting piece. Ramon Hernandez is a fine backstop, and it does allow Javy Lopez to not catch anymore, perhaps allowing his knees to be less creaky (I don’t understand that part of the simile either). He’ll move to DH, but Lopez still wants to catch. The same thing happened with my friends Bruce and Joey, who are a couple no more. More on that another time. The team also added the most brilliant pitching coach in baseball, Leo Mazzone, this offseason. Another good move, sure, but the timing is weird. Kris Benson is the only new pitcher the team brought in, despite weakness in that area. The team added talent, but two bottoms and no tops this offseason. I expect they’ll find themselves at the bottom of the AL East at season’s end. Now For the Good News: This team did, actually, improve during the offseason. Hernandez is a good addition, as is Mazzone, and two pickups that didn’t look like much, CF Corey Patterson and 1B-OF Kevin Millar, could actually be very good for the Orioles. Also, keep an eye on starting pitcher Daniel Cabrera, who took a step up last year in the second half. He could emerge as the team’s ace.   Inside The Numbers: MLB Ranks, ‘05                         Pre All-Star      Post All-Star BA                   2                      23 HR                   2                      18 Runs                 6                      26   Which team will show up in ’06: the one that scored runs at will early last year, or the one that couldn’t score them after the All-Star break? The difference was a full run, from 4.95 runs/game before, to 3.97 runs/game after.                                           Outlook: Miguel Tejada said he no longer wants to be traded, but I’m inclined to look more at his initial outburst this winter. When he demanded to be traded, he said he was concerned that the team hadn’t done enough to make the team competitive this year. Whether or not this was a good thing to say about your teammates is not the point; he’s right. While the Blue Jays went out and spent money, the Orioles are hoping Jay Gibbons and Jeff Conine will lead Baltimore to the postseason. Ain’t gonna happen. Prediction: 75-87 (2005 record: 74-88)