Avoiding The Bracket Busters
Some things to look for to losing your bracket pool on the first weekend.

By Cyd Zeigler jr.
Outsports.com

Everybody has their story.

It won’t take many long to remember their bracket in the South Regional last year.  The USC Trojans came into the tournament hot after making a run in the Pac-10 tournament, and looked ready to tear through to a Sweet 16 matchup with Duke. 

Enter the 13-seeded UNC-Wilmington Seahawks, who outlasted USC in overtime, 93-89, in the first round, upsetting some people’s “surprise” pick in the Final Four.  

UNC-Wilmington was one of the extreme “Bracket Busters” last year – an athletic team that got no attention until that upset victory over an equally athletic USC team.

How can you avoid getting beaten by a “Bracket Buster”?

PICKING THE UPSET

The flip side of that, of course, is going out on a limb and picking a 13-seed to beat a 4-seed and then, 92% of the time, seeing that pick bomb.

That 92% is the amount a team seeded 1-4 has won in the first round of the tournament the last three years; the record of teams seeded 13-16:  4-44.  Not once in the last three years has one of those badly seeded teams gone to the Sweet 16.

There's a common practice of just writing in the 1-seeds into the second round without batting an eye.  I'd go a step further:  write all 16 of the 1-4 seeds into the second round.  If you miss that upset of the 2-seed then so be it:  so will almost everyone else.  If you pick an upset that big and it doesn't happen, you're behind almost everyone else.

Focus your upset energies on the teams seeded 5-8.  Their winning percentage in the last three years:  60%.  They still win more than they lose in the first round; but, upsets abound for those teams.

HOMECOURT ADVANTAGE IN CONFERENCE TOURNEYS

One of the things to look for is how some of the teams from smaller conferences got there.  Most of them did so by winning three or four straight games in their conference tournament.  That means they’re “hot,” right?  Well, maybe.  It also might just mean they’re a good home team.

Six teams from conferences not considered among the “power” conferences will be in the NCAA tournament after hosting their conference tournament at home.  Four of these teams had a combined home record for the season of 55-1.  Those four teams:  Weber State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Wagner and Western Kentucky.  Those teams’ combined record on the road or a neutral site:  37-28.  The percentage differential between their combined road records and home records (HAPD):  41.3% - a very high number for a tournament team.  (See right for explanation of home-away percentage differential).

These four teams clearly benefited dramatically from being able to host their conference tournaments.  Can they do it on the road against their opponents?  Let’s look at who their opponents are:

Weber State (12) against Wisconsin (5):  Weber State, in Utah, gets to play in Spokane, Washington against Wisconsin.  Wisconsin is only 6-6 on the road while Weber State has the best HAPD of all these four teams with a 23.5%.  Weber State has an excellent chance of knocking off the Badgers – picking Wisconsin any further than the second round would be very dangerous.

Wisc.-Milwaukee (12) against Notre Dame (5):  Notre Dame should have homecourt advantage here, given that the game will be played in Indiana.  Wisc.-Milwaukee also has a higher HAPD than Notre Dame:  38.9 to 34.2.  Notre Dame is a safe pick to advance.

Wagner (15) against Pittsburgh (2): Geographically, there’s no homecourt advantage here – the game is being played in Boston, which is marginally closer to Wagner.  Looking at the teams’ HAPD, Pittsburgh’s 28.6 is almost half that of Wagner’s 49.6.  An upset here is dangerous to pick, at best.

Western Kentucky (13) against Illinois (4):  Western Kentucky is 8-8 away from home, but 15-0 at their home court, which gives them a 50% HAPD.  Illinois’ is 40% which against another team, might spell trouble but, against this team, should be a war of attrition.  An upset here is very dangerous.

Two other smaller conference schools got to host their conference tourney as well:  San Diego and Tulsa.  Their combined home record is 22-9, and their combined away record:  16-11.  The home-away win percentage differential:  a very high 11.7% - which is higher than every 1-8 seed except for two teams (Kentucky & Arizona).  Unfortunately for San Diego, they get Stanford, who has as strong HAPD of 18.1.  Tulsa may fair a little better – their matchup is Dayton, who is 7-4 away from home with a 30.5 HAPD.

One last point of interest here:  Louisville hosted the Conference-USA tournament and won it as the three-seed.

THE PODS

In 2001, the higher seeds took a beating:  they were only 19-13 and the teams seeded 5-8 actually lost more games, 10, than they won, 6.

Last year, the “pod” system was instituted that put many of the higher seeds closer to their home court.  Not surprisingly, the upsets came far fewer with the favorites going 25-7 and only team team seeded 1-4, the above-mentioned Southern Cal, losing in the first round.

Last year, one of those upsets came with the help of the pod system.  Southern Illinois, seeded #11 in the East, played against #6 Texas Tech.  Despite Tech being a much higher seed, the game was played in Chicago and the Salukis brought with them a home crowd.

This year’s biggest benefactors of the pod system:

Oklahoma (1):  Oklahoma didn’t need much help as the #1 seed, but they get to play in their own state.  This advantage will help them in round two as well, against Cal or NC State.

Florida (2):  The Gators get to play in Tampa for the first two rounds against teams from over 1,000 miles away. 

Gonzaga (9): You know they’ll be coming down to Salt Lake City from Washington to support the Bulldogs against Cincinnati in the first round.  And, given the Bearcats’ terrible home-away percentage differential (47.9%), this could be the biggest geographic help of the first round.

Pennsylvania (11):  They play in Boston which, geographically, is much closer to Penn than Oklahoma State (whom they play in the first round).  Plus, Boston is an Ivy League town.  They’ll be pulling for the Quakers in the Fleet Center.

BYU (12):  Playing on the West Coast in Spokane, WA, while Connecticut has to come from the East, is a big boon for the Cougars.  Also, the Huskies’ away record (7-7) and their home-away percentage differential (37.5%) don’t bode well for them.

WHO CAN HANDLE THE FANS

The other side of homecourt advantage is the underdog factor.  Fans in a neutral arena will cheer more for the #12 seed than they will the #5 seed because so many seem to want to see the making of a “Cinderella.”  How a team deals with the fans suddenly turning against them when they’re up by two points with 10 minutes left can determine whether they win or lose a game.

On the insert I’ve listed the ten best, and ten worst, home-away percentage differentials of all of the teams seeded 1-8. 

Check back Monday as I unveil my Top 10 upset potentials for the First Round.