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Round 2 Matchups

 

1 Duke vs. 9 Missouri Right now, Duke is simply playing too well to be beaten this weekend.  Upset probability:  21% Duke 84, Missouri 70 Duke Blue Devils Team Web Site Record: 29-4 Conference: ACC Rank:  3 (AP)  / 1 (RPI) Strength of Schedule: 6 Our Odds:  12:1 Record vs. RPI Top 75: 16-4 We Say:   There's no reason to think Duke won't be in the Sweet 16.  They've been there three of the last four years.  And, this year, they haven't lost to a team ranked worse than 15.  However, with the injury to big man Carlos Boozer (and they already got dominated on the boards), they'll have trouble going any further despite peaking now. Record vs. Tourney Teams:  15-4 Hot Factor:  9 - Shane Battier leads this all-hot team into the tourney on a tear.  J.D. Simpson headlines a very handsome bench. Missouri Tigers Team Web Site Record: 18-12 Conference: Big XII Rank:  NR (AP)  / 47 (RPI) Strength of Schedule: 40 Our Odds:  12:1 Record vs. RPI Top 75: 3-10 We Say:   They were one of the last teams to get into the tournament, and with good reason.  They have a terrible record against top teams, and are 7-10 overall since mid-January.  This young team (four of their first seven are freshman) will live or die by the three. Record vs. Tourney Teams:  3-10 Hot Factor:  1 - There's just not a lot to get excited about on this team.

 

4 UCLA vs. 12 Utah State The Aggies knocked off a very good Ohio State team - but, we saw just how strong the Big Ten really was.  This is a Pac-10 (4-1 in the tourney) team that has something to prove, and played through a tough first round game. Upset probability: 33% UCLA 74, Utah State 66  UCLA Bruins Team Web Site Record: 21-8  Conference:  Pac-10 Rank:  13 (AP)  / 11 (RPI) Strength of Schedule: 8 Our Odds:  40:1 Record vs. RPI Top 75: 10-6 We Say:  The Bruins play every game to the level of their opponents - a mark of poor coaching by Steve Lavin - which explains wins against Stanford and Arizona and losses to CS-Northridge and Washington.  The Bruins are a great mystery in this tournament.  They do play poor defense, which will ultimately be their downfall. Record vs. Tourney Teams:  7-7 Hot Factor:  5 -  Between Jason Kapono's big hair, and Earl Watson's big ears, there's plenty to look at, good or bad, on this team.  If you like butterballs, Ryan Bailey is your guy.  Princeton transfer Spencer Gloger will be someone to watch next year.    Utah State Aggies Team Web Site Record:   23-5 Conference:  Big West Rank:   NR  (AP)  /  66 (RPI)  Strength of Schedule:  205 Our Odds:  300:1  Record vs. RPI Top 75:  2-2 We Say:   This is a well-balanced team with four guys averaging double digit points.  They're led by junior guard Tony Brown.  Not a lot of size on this team, but seven foot center Dimitri Jorssen is a presence in the middle with senior forward Shawn Daniels, who leads the team with almost seven rebounds per game and was the Big West Defensive Player Of The Year.  Record vs. Tourney Teams:  0-1  Hot Factor:  8 - Just as they play, this is a well-balanced team led by seven-footer Dimitri Jorssen, Curtis Bobb, and Tony Brown.  We certainly wouldn't mind going on a mission with these guys . . .

3 Boston College vs. 6 Southern California One of the best match-ups in the second round, both teams have size, strength, shooting, and have outperformed pre-season expectations.  This could go either way, but the Pac-10 is on a roll.  Upset probability:  52% Southern California 70, Boston College 67 Boston College Eagles Team Web Site Record:  25-4 Conference:  Big East Rank:  10 (AP)  / 5 (RPI) Strength of Schedule:  47 Our Odds:  18:1 Record vs. RPI Top 75:  13-4  We Say:  BC is the first team in Big East history to go from last place to first place in one season.  The Eagles have a great perimeter game shooting 36% from downtown and averaging over seven three point baskets per game.  They've got a good defense, allowing over 80 points only twice and scoring over 80 a total of 14 times.  A young team, only six of 16 players are upperclassmen.  They are a legit contender in this tournament. Record vs. Tourney Teams:  4-2 Hot Factor:  8 - Jonathan Beerbohm and Nicolas Dunn lead a team speckled with a lot of above-average looks. Southern California Trojans Team Web Site Record: 20-9 Conference:  Pac-10 Rank:  40 (AP)  / 21 (RPI) Strength of Schedule: 29 Our Odds:  200:1 Record vs. RPI Top 75: 4-7 We Say:   This team has done a good job feasting on lesser teams.  However, its record against the top teams in the country isn't indicative of a #6 seed.  They're a well-rounded team with whom Coach Henry Bibby has done a good job.  They are one-and-out at best. Record vs. Tourney Teams:  4-7 Hot Factor:  3 - Nate Hair is just your average Southern California surfbumb three-point threat.  Jeff Trepagnier offers a bit more to look at.  Tyler Murphy looks like Bill Walton.

 

2 Kentucky vs. 7 Iowa Our pick to win it all, Kentucky struggled against Holy Cross, playing streaky basketball.  Against Iowa, they will right the ship..   Upset probability:  28% Kentucky 81, Iowa 71  Kentucky Wildcats Team Web Site Record: 22-9 Conference:  SEC Rank:  15 (AP)  /  10 (RPI) Strength of Schedule: 3 Our Odds:  10:1 Record vs. RPI Top 75: 17-9 We Say:   This team has as good of a chance to win the whole thing as anyone else.  Every game by five was played against an RPI Top 100 team.  They have it all:  size in Prince and Estill and guard play in Keith Bogans, and this team is deep, with eight guys averaging over five points per game.  Pen the Wildcats into the Sweet 16 and look for them to go further.  Record vs. Tourney Teams:  10-7 Hot Factor:  6 - Cliff Hawkins and J.P. Blevins are certainly two guys to look out for.  Also check out the team photo.  Iowa Hawkeyes Team Web Site Record:   22-11 Conference:  Big Ten Rank:   NR  (AP)  /  26 (RPI)  Strength of Schedule:  26 Our Odds:  125:1 Record vs. RPI Top 75:  4-1 We Say:   After losing seven of eight in February, this Luke Recker-less team was headed toward the NIT.  But, they beat three solid teams in the last week in capturing the Big Ten title.  Which team will show up?  In the tournment, the Hawkeyes' survival will depend on Reggie Evans' ability to control games.  Record vs. Tourney Teams:  4-1 Hot Factor:  10 - This team is loaded with players to watch: Luke Recker (on the sidelines), Brody Boyd, Reggie Evans, Duez Henderson - this team is one of the hottest in the tournament.