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Round 1 Matchups

 

1 Michigan State vs. 9 Fresno State This is no easy match-up for the Spartans.  Fresno State has an athletic squad and a coach who knows how to win tournament games.  This will be a battle to the end.  Upset probability:  42% Michigan State 79, Fresno State 77 Michigan State Spartans Team Web Site Record: 24-4 Conference:  Big Ten Rank:   (AP)  / 3 (RPI) Strength of Schedule: 30 Our Odds:  10:1 Record vs. RPI Top 75:  13-4 We Say:   While the defending National Champions don't look as dominant as they did last year, they are among the class of college basketball.  In the last month, they have found a way to put the defensive screws on teams, and guard Jason Richardson is coming into his own.  They are 4-1 against their last five tournament teams. Record vs. Tourney Teams:  10-4 Hot Factor:  2 - Coach Tom Izzo is the best thing on or off the bench - there's just not much here. Fresno State Bulldogs Team Web Site Record: 25-6 Conference:  WAC Rank:   (AP)  / 20 (RPI) Strength of Schedule: 80 Our Odds:  100:1 Record vs. RPI Top 75: 6-5 We Say:     While Coach Jerry Tarkanian's storied years at UNLV earned him a National Championship, they also earned UNLV NCAA sanctions.  Now Tark has a front five (and not much more) with lots of talent, but also lots of personality problems.  With a good coach and talented starters, the Bulldogs could reach the Sweet 16, but little experience against top teams would hurt in later rounds. Record vs. Tourney Teams:  2-2 Hot Factor:  1 - Gosh, it's hard to get excited about anyone on this team.

 

12 Gonzaga vs. 13 Indiana State There's no reason to think Gonzaga won't win this game.  They've been to the Sweet 16 the last two years, and Indiana State hasn't been in 20 years.   Upset probability:  28% Gonzaga 72, Indiana State 60 Gonzaga Bulldogs (Zags) Team Web Site Record:   23-6 Conference:  West Coast Rank:   31  (AP)  /  77 (RPI) Strength of Schedule:  211 Our Odds:  100:1  Record vs. RPI Top 75:  0-3  We Say:   Lucky for Gonzaga they play in the West Coast Conference.  With a strength of schedule rank in the 200s, this team isn't ready for the tournament the way they have been in the past.  They're a very short team, with no players over 6'8".  What the Bulldogs do have, though, is a leader in Casey Calvary who could carry the team for a round.  But, don't look for it to last to the Sweet 16. Record vs. Tourney Teams:  1-2 Hot Factor:  6 - The tandem of Casey Calvary and Dan Dickau works in more ways than one. Indiana State Sycamores Team Web Site Record:   21-11 Conference:  Missouri Valley Rank:   NR  (AP)  /  83 (RPI)  Strength of Schedule:  113 Our Odds:  200:1 Record vs. RPI Top 75:  3-3  We Say:   They won the MVC tournament as a five seed.  Yes, a five seed - in the Missouri Valley Conference.  There's not a lot to say about this team - they're just average in almost every way.  Their biggest Achilles heal could be their height - their starting center is 6'9".   Record vs. Tourney Teams:  3-3 Hot Factor: 7 - Not surprisingly, Indiana State has one of the whitest teams in the tournament.  Matt Renn is the looker, and the leader, of the group.  Marcus Howard is something to look at coming off the bench.

 

3 Florida vs. 11 Temple Every year, we hear how no one wants to play the John Cheney's Temple Owls.  Defense defense defense.  Well, with good reason.  Temple brutalized Texas in Round 1, and Florida's depleted offense won't be able to do much better. Upset probability:  62% Temple 67, Florida 60 Florida Gators Team Web Site Record: 23-6 Conference:  SEC Rank:   (AP)  / 17 (RPI) Strength of Schedule:  62 Our Odds:  20:1 Record vs. RPI Top 75:  13-6 We Say:   Last year's national runners-up have been winning for the last six weeks through the great coaching of Billy Donovan.  After losing several players to injuries in January and seeing point production drop by 20%, the Gators have clamped down on defense, allowing only one team over 75 points in two months.  Teddy Dupay can lead this team back to the Final Four, but a weak schedule could hurt them. Record vs. Tourney Teams:  7-4 Hot Factor:  6 - Coach Billy Donovan is probably the best-looking guy on this team, though Teddy Dupay is something to cheer about. Temple Owls Team Web Site Record:  21-12 Conference:  Atlantic 10 Rank:  - (AP)  / 39 (RPI) Strength of Schedule:  30 Our Odds:  60:1 Record vs. RPI Top 75:  8-10 We Say:   While this installment of John Cheney's Owls still likes to slow down the tempo, they are 3-1 when they or their opponents score over 85 points.  Their zone defense is playing as well as it has all season.  Bigman Kevin Lyde is a force in the middle and is a key to both ends of the court for the Owls. Record vs. Tourney Teams:  1-8 Hot Factor:  1 -  None of the players look quite as bad as coach John Cheney - but, there just isn't much to see on this team.

 

2 North Carolina vs. 7 Penn State The Nittany Lions will try to do the 3-4 Big Ten proud by pulling off the big upset.  They certainly could do it - Penn State beat Michigan State in the Big Ten tourney.  But, the Tar Heels simply have too much going right now.   Upset probability:  42% North Carolina 76, Penn State 71 North Carolina Tar Heels Team Web Site Record: 25-6 Conference:  ACC Rank:   (AP)  / 4 (RPI) Strength of Schedule: 14 Our Odds:  15:1 Record vs. RPI Top 75: 12-5 We Say:   UNC is obviously one of the premiere teams in the nation.  However, after winning 18 straight and claiming a #1 ranking, they went 4-4.  The Tar Heels have everything you need to win in the tournament:  good point guard in Joseph Forte, solid inside men in Brendan Haywood and Kris Lang.  But, they are slumping now and could be upset after the first round. Record vs. Tourney Teams:  11-5 Hot Factor:   5 - Jason Capel and Joseph Forte lead this team in more ways than one. Penn State Nittany Lions Team Web Site Record:   19-11 Conference:  Big Ten Rank:   NR  (AP)  /  24 (RPI)  Strength of Schedule:  15 Our Odds:  150:1 Record vs. RPI Top 75:  10-9  We Say:   Joe Paterno has led this Penn State team to . . . oh, sorry, got confused.  Penn State may have gotten itself a berth with a win over Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament.   Record vs. Tourney Teams:  8-9 Hot Factor: 10 - One of the hottest teams in the tournament, the players to watch are the brothers Joe Crispin and Jon Crispin, Ken Krimmel, Stephan Bekale, B.J. Vossekuil,