Basketball

Some Raised Eyebrows, and Expectations, This Weekend

By Cyd Zeigler jr.

Like so many, I sat on my couch Sunday afternoon sipping a Cosmo and, repeatedly, shaking my head. While putting together a field of 65 basketball teams can be no easy feat, it can't be so difficult that, every year, a group of very basketball-astute men screw it up.

THE BATTLE OF THE GLASS SLIPPERS ET. AL.

Some of the good things to come out of the brackets are some potentially intriguing battles. One is the first-round matchup of Gonzaga and Valparaiso. Both of these teams have been "Cinderellas" (is there a more overused term in sports) in the last few years; this year, only one can claim that title. Arizona and Duke played for the national championship a couple years ago; now, they could match up in the second round. If they make it that far, the Duke-North Carolina rivalry could get one more chapter. Syracuse and Maryland were the last two teams to win it all; they may see each other in the second round.

If nothing else, the selection committee has a good sense of humor

RPI – RIDICULOUS PIECE OF INSANITY

Go figure this one. The coveted Rating Percentage Index (RPI) is the term you’ll hear a lot of in the next few days. The NCAA Selection Committee has deemed this piece of work a key element in determining which teams to admit to the tournament and how to seed them. How this number is figured is very simple. It is:

  25% Team’s winning percentage
  50% Team’s opponents’ winning percentage
  25% Team’s opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage

That’s it. Very simple. No QB rating logarithm here. What sticks out to me is that the selection committee weighs the winning percentage of teams you didn’t even play as much as your own record. The killer, though: your own record is weighted half of your opponents’ record. Huh? That results in Stanford, who is #2 in both polls, being ranked #7; it means that Florida, who is unranked in the polls, is ranked #13 by the RPI. Utah State, who is ranked in the low 20’s, has an RPI of 43.

After the BCS bullshit of this past season, this should all sound very familiar to USC fans. The only reason there isn’t an outcry to do away with this stupid form of measuring a team is because 65 teams are invited to challenge for the national championship instead of two. And no one is going to go to the mat for the likes of Utah State.

PREDICTABLE

Billy Packer has, for the last couple weeks, said over and over that St. Joseph’s did not deserve to be a #1 seed. When asked if he thought Utah State had deserved to be in the tournament, he said no. It’s so typical of these guys who are so nuts about the big conferences that it just kills them to see the St. Joseph’s and Gonzagas get great seeds in the tournament.

On the flip side is Dick Vitale – the ultimate apologist for the “lesser” conferences. Every year, he whines and complains that the Utah States of the world didn’t get in. This year, you’ll hear less whining from him, though, because Utah State was the only mid-major conference bubble team that didn’t get in; the other bubble teams were all from the majors.

AIR FORCE VS. UTAH STATE

With all that said, I don’t get why Air Force is in and Utah State is out. If they had gone with a major conference team, I could understand that they weighed the strength of schedule heavily. But, Air Force’s SOS was 183 and Utah State’s was 186. Utah State’s RPI was 27 spots ahead of Air Force’s, yet Air Force got the bid. Utah State went 13-2 in their last 15; Air Force went 11-4, yet Air Force got the bid. Utah State went 24-3; Air Force went 22-6, yet Air Force got the bid. Utah State’s average loss was by five points; Air Force’s was by 10, yet Air Force got the bid. What I can only imagine it came down to was that Air Force hadn’t been invited in 42 years; Utah State had been there before. For those kids who play for Utah State and hadn’t been there before, though, it must have hurt watching that selection show.

A LOSS ISN’T ALWAYS A LOSS – THE DUKE/PITT DOUBLE STANDARD

If you’re Duke, apparently you can lose key national games and it doesn’t matter. In fact, you can lose a few of them and it doesn’t matter. Duke was, according to the numbnut from the selection committee on CBS during their selection show, going to be the #1 team in the whole tournament until they lost to Maryland. So, they slipped to #2 behind Kentucky. Meanwhile, the #3 team in the tourney, Stanford, won its conference tournament; and Gonzaga, the #5 team in the tourney, won its conference.

Why was Duke not punished more for losing to Maryland – who, two weeks ago, was a “bubble team” – after blowing a 12 point lead with three minutes left? Because they’re Duke. You see, if you’re Duke, you can commit flagrant fouls and get away with it (see 1990 Final Four game against UNLV). If you’re Duke, you can have your coach stomp up and down and scream and yell at the refs and he won’t get a technical (see any game they’re in trouble). And, you can lose more games than any of the top eight teams in the tournament, minus Uconn, and still be a #1 seed.

If you’re Pittsburgh, you get different rules. Pittsburgh went 28-4 to Duke’s 27-5 and also lost in its conference tournament final – on the final play of the game. Unlike Duke, they dropped to a #3 seed – and some felt like they would have been a #1 seed if they had beaten Uconn. It should be no secret why Duke is the most hated team in any tournament – because they get the calls, be it from the refs or the NCAA selection committee, it’s just glorious to see they go up in flames.

Plus, try this one on for size. Duke gets rewarded by playing in its backyard for the first two rounds in Raleigh, N.C. Pitt not only gets shoved to a #3 seed, but they have to play in Milwaukee – possibly against Wisconsin in the second round.

Probably no one in the tournament has more of a legitimate beef about their bracket than Pitt; and no one got more of a gift than Duke. Go Alabama State!

THE BEST WAY TO GET RESPECT

In 2002, Gonzaga and Gonzaga apologists were whining about their #6 seed. Many felt they deserved to be, at worst, a #3. Gonzaga promptly proved the selection committee right by being upset by an #11 seed in round one.

There are some teams, like Pitt, who have a legitimate beef with their seeding. Gonzaga easily could have been a #1 seed; Arizona, at #9, could have been higher; all of the Big Ten teams, Wisconsin in particular, could have made a claim for a better seed.

There is only one way to prove the selection committee wrong and that is to go further than your seed. Until 'Zona beats Duke, we have to assume that the group of white guys in suits in a room somewhere in the Midwest got it right. Chances are, though, they didn't.