I love Michelle Kwan. To me, there is no skater more graceful and lovely, who combines artistry and athleticism better than Michelle Kwan. I hear she's practicing two 3-3's, but I wonder if she'll do both. If she draws before her main competitors (Irina, Sarah), then she'll probably go for it. But if she draws after them, and they flub their 3-3's, she might just go for the 3t-3t, or none at all, since she got very high marks at and won Nationals without a 3-3 combo. I don't know about her choice in programs. As great as it was, I'm not crazy about seeing the Rachmaninoff SP again, and I can't imagine the judges are either. I have mixed feelings about Sheharadze (sp?). The first half is pretty much skate skate skate jump ... skate skate skate jump - not much interesting choreography. The second half, after she gets most of the jumps out of the way, really comes alive, though. She performed the footwork with such speed and electricity at Nationals, there's that great sequence where the Charlotte eventually leads into a 3z, and then the two beautiful falling leaves at the end ... it make for just brilliant skating.

I like Irina, and she's done wonders with her presentation, but I still don't think she's quite the skater Michelle is. Her fans all talk about her stroking, edges, and speed - but as much as I try to look for those qualities, they're hard to appreciate on TV. What is quite obvious is her long lead-ins to most jumps, slow spins, and slightly off line and body position. Her jumping has been very impressive in the past, but it's dropped off a bit the last year. She hadn't landed a 3-3 combo in over a year, finally hitting a 3s-3l at the Europeans. Still, if she hits 2 3-3 combos, she'll be very tough to beat (note: she hasn't landed the 3z-3l since the 2000 GP Finals).

I can't say I'm a big fan of Sarah Hughes. There's still a certain awkwardness to her skating, although Peggy Fleming, who obviously knows a heckuva lot more about skating than I do, sounds like she's pleasuring herself when commenting on Sarah's programs. To me, there's something about the knees and positions that aren't quite right with her. Sarah's under-rotated jumps drive me crazy too - all her triple jumps seem to have just 2-3/4 rotations. The Nationals judges finally busted her big-time, with serious deductions in the SP for her egregious "flutz".

Though I love Sasha Cohen, I don't think she's quite ready for the gold. She should contend for the bronze, however. If all the other ladies are hitting 3-3's, I wonder if Sasha will pull out the quad. When I saw the quad salchow attempt during Nationals warm-up, I was very impressed - 4 full rotations with a landing clean as a whistle. Quad or no quad, I love Sasha's positions and flexibility.

As for the other ladies ... Maria? Gotta love her, if only for the fact that she's 29 years old and still at it. Alas, she is so mentally fragile. Still a contender for the bronze, however, if she manages to keep it together. The rest? Volchkova will probably land a huge (true) 3z or two, then fall apart. I don't see either of the two Japanese women on the podium, although I'd love to see Fumie hit the triple axel.

Predictions and comments, anyone?

In my mind, everything Michelle Kwan does is perfect. She must win.

Did you see her in the Opening Ceremonies? She looked so excited.

I think Michelle has to go for the triple triple even if Irina doesnt have one. She got ripped of at Grand Prix skating a 6 triple program to Slutskaya's 4 triples. The former Soviet countries put Slutskaya in first while the rest of the nations put her in third. Hmmm.

I know I am in the minority here, but I have a problem with an event in which your costume and whether you stay in the Olympic Village can sway judges in your favor. Thats the main reason Kwan is staying in the village, from what I've read. If they want to make it all about the skating, which they should, then they should wear the same uniforms. Who has the prettiest dress, who has the prettiest smile has no business in sports, IMHO.

[ February 10, 2002: Message edited by: George_vikingfan ]

I thought she wasn't staying in the village.

And yes, that is a problem.

She's staying in the village until her competition begins. Then she is going to a hotel somewhere.

People don't win based on costumes. But if the costume is excessive and you can't see the body line because the skirt if big and bouffant, naturally that's not going to be in that person's favor. The Russian's have dominated the sport and they usually have the ugliest costumes of all. That says alot. But they usually don't have costumes that hide a poor bodyline. Judges are not going to place a skater above someone else because they like the color pink. Although I can't say much against national bias.

Kwan got silver not because she stayed in the hotel. The criticism was that the reason Kwan did not win was because she skated cautiously. She skated cautiously because she didn't take in the full experience of the Olympics and so it effected her performance. The critism had nothing to do with judging. Anyway, the criticism is nonsense. She skated just fine and should have won IMO. SHe also had a peanut butter sandwich that morning. Had she had ham and cheese she would have won gold.

Although Irina Rodnina said that Kwan lost becuase her coach didn't slip the former soviet judges some vodka.

[ February 10, 2002: Message edited by: savvy ]

[ February 10, 2002: Message edited by: savvy ]

Much to my chagrin, Peggy Fleming is constantly talking about costumes, hair, facial expressions, and makeup. So I can see where the misconception that all that crap actually affects the judges comes from.

Michelle lost to Tara Lipinski because Michelle was cautious and Tara had the skate of her life. Michelle herself admits that her long program at Nagano was a bit reserved. On the technical side, she hit 6 triples, with no 3-3 combos. Tara hit 7 triples, including a triple toe-half loop-triple salchow series and the very difficult triple loop-triple loop combination. That is what the judges noticed. I doubt many of the judges were even aware of where Michelle was staying, or would have cared. Even though I'm a huge Michelle Kwan fan, I have to admit, Tara was the better skater that night.

I saw that performance and I believe Michelle was robbed. She's just more beautiful on the ice than anyone.

There was an article in the Philly Inquirer about the judging. They also include practice sessions as part of the final score.

So there you go.

I'd be interested in seeing the article. I don't think the practice sessions actually factor into the final placements as much as it gives the judges some time to sort things out. If you look at all the things the judges have to evaluate on the technical mark (speed, jumps, complexity of footwork, speed and centering of spins, edging) plus the presentation mark (harmonious composition of the program as a whole and its conformity with the music chosen, variation of speed, utilization of the ice surface, easy movement and sureness in time to the music, carriage and style, originality, expression of the character of the music, and unison for pairs), then keep in mind that each judge has to rank all ~30 skaters from 1 to 30 with no ties, it would be impossible to figure everything out during the event itself. By seeing full run-throughs of the skaters' programs (which might change a bit, but not significantly) in practice sessions, the judges can get a good idea of a lot of judging elements. For example, things like choreography, line, carriage, and edging aren't going to change much. After seeing the practices, the judges have an idea of what to expect, which helps a lot with the enormity of their task, but I can't imagine their impressions are etched in stone. The skater's final ordinal should be, and I believe is, based on what the judges see the night of the competition.

As for which skater was more beautiful, no doubt, hands down, you'd have to say Michelle. But as Sandra Loosemore, skating writer and queen of the skating webmistresses, points out, skating is not a beauty contest. Tara had come pretty close to Michelle in presentation, and she had her smoked in the technical. Tara deserved the gold.

My understanding of judges watching the practice sessions, is that they have an idea before watching the actual performance what it's supposed to look like.

You say Tara, I say Michelle. Let's call the whole thing off.

I think one of the reasons judges watch the practice sessions is so they have an idea of what to expect in the long program as far as the technical elements. If the judges see a skater is falling on a triple axel while practicing their program, then during the performance they do a double axel where the triple axel had been, the judges know the skater is having trouble with that particular element and is taking the cautious approach. It might not make a difference as far as the technical score they award that skater, but it does enter into their ordinal placement, where the judges rank the skaters from number one on up.

[quote]Originally posted by savvy:
People don't win based on costumes. But if the costume is excessive and you can't see the body line because the skirt if big and bouffant, naturally that's not going to be in that person's favor. The Russian's have dominated the sport and they usually have the ugliest costumes of all. That says alot.

---

Well but aren't some of the JUDGES Russian (and othe Eastern European nations) as well and therefore think their compatriots costumes are fine? I don't believe skaters win because of their costume. But it is most definitely factored in to the artistic impression portion. Why esle would commentators be going on and on about the costumes? And why would these skaters go to the expense of hiring designers (which all the top skaters do)?

Judges should not be watching practices at all. Referees aren't watching NFL or NBA pracices to learn players tendancies. And the national bias in scoring is sometimes ridiculously, blatantly obvious. I admire skaters as athletes, but not necesarily skating as a sport.

[quote]Originally posted by George_vikingfan:


Well but aren't some of the JUDGES Russian (and othe Eastern European nations) as well and therefore think their compatriots costumes are fine? I don't believe skaters win because of their costume. But it is most definitely factored in to the artistic impression portion. Why esle would commentators be going on and on about the costumes? And why would these skaters go to the expense of hiring designers (which all the top skaters do)?

Judges should not be watching practices at all. Referees aren't watching NFL or NBA pracices to learn players tendancies. And the national bias in scoring is sometimes ridiculously, blatantly obvious. I admire skaters as athletes, but not necesarily skating as a sport.

---

Well, actually a good number of skaters make their own dresses. Maria Butyrksaya for example. Sasha Cohen helps design her own dress. Michelle Kwan wears Vera Wang because Vera Wang is a friend and I assume she gets it free. And other than Wang, there are no fashion designers designing for skaters. There are only skating designers for the most part. You never hear Peggy Fleming say smeone's dress was designed by Jeff Billings. But she will mention it for Vera Wang becuase it IS a Vera Wang. But at World last year Michelle wore cheap mass produced dresses for the programs. I don't believe that the Russian/American difference is THAT big that they would enjoy the Russian's costumes. But then, Im not Russian. There are a number of Russian with good taste such as Beryshnya/Sikharlidze, Gordeeva, grinkov and Maria Butryskaya. But I can't imagine anyone wanting to wear a dress with an imprinted hand over her boob like one skater wore like she was Lil' Kim.
I still disagree that it is not factored in to the presentation scores. Commentators talk about the dresses but only as fluff like they talk about what school they go to, their grade reports, and idols they look up to. A commentator, atleast in amateur competition, has never said that the dress is factored into presentation. Judging biases and politics is another story, but other than that, fluff a non issue. After what happened today with the pairs skating, I'm questioning figure skating as a sport as well. Not that I'd get rid of it. Without Figure skating there is no olympics, atleast for american. The bigger issue is judging bias and politics which question the sport but not the fluff stuff.

[ February 12, 2002: Message edited by: savvy ]

Ahh! The short program draw is today and lets hope she skates after Irina. Practices were good today yesterday. She skated the full program only missing that pesky triple loop. Tried the 3lutz/3loop after the run through but was underrotated.

[ February 17, 2002: Message edited by: savvy ]

[ February 17, 2002: Message edited by: savvy ]

Short program draw. Michelle is last of the top competitors!

1. Stephanie Zhang AUS
2. Fumie Suguri JPN
3. Julia Lebedeva ARM
4. Mojca Kopac SLO
5. Sarah Hughes USA

6. Sasha Cohen USA
7. Tatiana Malinina UZB
8. Bit-Na Park KOR
9. Elena Liashenko UKR
10. Julia Sebestyen HUN

11. Vanessa Gusmeroli FRA
12. Maria Butyrskaya RUS
13. Irina Slutskaya RUS
14. Julia Soldatova BLR
15. Michelle Kwan USA

16. Elina Kettunen FIN
17. Jennifer Robinson CAN
18. Zuzana Babiakova SVK
19. Idora Hegel CRO
20. Yoshie Onda JPN
21. Roxana Luca ROM

22. Viktoria Volchkova RUS
23. Vanessa Giunchi ITA
24. Sylvia Fontana ITA
25. Galina Maniachenko UKR
26. Laetitia Hubert FRA
27. Sarah Meier SUI

who said, "Better lucky than good sometimes, but it's best to be lucky and good"? It's a nice stroke of luck for Michelle to draw after Irina, Sarah, and Sasha.

Assuming all the top ladies skate clean (more likely in the ladies' short program than the men's because the technical bar isn't set as high), the interesting detail to look for is the "flutz", if the judges deduct for it, and how much. Sarah has the worst flutz of the top women, and boy, did she get slammed for it at Nationals. Sasha flutzes. Michelle flutzes too, but since she at least maintains the counter-rotation, hers isn't as bad. I think Irina flutzes sometimes, but barely. The only women who do a true triple lutz are Voltchkova, Butyrskaya, and (I think, not sure) Malinina.

Sorry, but flutzing is a big thing with me. The triple lutz is the most difficult jump in women's figure skating (no one has landed a quad in competition, and we haven't seen a triple axel since the old Midori and Tonya days). A triple lutz significantly ups the technical mark in the short, and a 3z in the free skate allows for one more triple (seven instead of six) under the Zayak Rule. If a skater can't do a true triple lutz, why should judges give her credit for one?

The flutz doesn't bother me at all. But I can't really distinguish the jumps so, I'm not a good judge.

BoSoxRudy, why do you suppose the spread between the jumping abilities of the men and the women is so much greater than it was ten years ago? Then, there were as many women doing triple axels as men doing quads, and Surya Bonaly was even threatening to try a quad.

Mind you, judging by the men's competition the other night, the triple lutz is tougher than a quad--that jump got muffed over and over, flutzes & single lutzes galore.

Lev, it's not that a flutz is particularly unsightly or anything. It just bothers me when judges who are supposed to be at the sports highest level of expertise let skaters get away with it. If I can spot it, the judges sure as hell can. Why should flutzers get credit for doing a more difficult jump when they can't actually do it? And conversely, the skaters who are capable of a true lutz should get higher technical marks instead of getting lumped in with everybody else. After what happened in the pairs, it's obvious that every little tenth counts.

[WARNING: skip this paragraph if you don't give a hoot what a "flutz" is] To define a "flutz", you first have to define what flip and lutz jumps are. For counter-clockwise-rotation jumpers (the majority), both jumps take off on the right toe pick. The difference is that the lutz entry is on the left back outside edge while the flip is on the left back inside edge. The difference in edges mean two things: (1) about 1/8 more of a rotation for the lutz; and perhaps more significant (2) the lutz entry is on an arc (since you can't skate in a straight line while on an edge, unless you're Surya Bonaly) that is counter to the rotation of the jump. You'll find a lot of skaters who prefer the lutz to the flip because the entry is more stable, but make no mistake, it's also a more difficult jump. Finally, a flutz is an intended lutz, but right before take-off the skater cheats by switching edges, and actually ends up doing the easier flip jump.

JC, I think it's that Midori and Tonya were truly exceptional, gifted jumpers. Slutskaya and Voltchkova get amazing height on their jumps, but even the best in the biz nowadays don't get the kind of pop Ito and Harding did. I think the gap between the men and women today is to be expected. Midori and Tanya were just two in a million.

Honda and Goebel were the only two men who I caught flutzing. Did you spot any others? Honda always flutzes, and will continue to do so until he's seriously dinged for it in a major competition (a la Sarah Hughes at U.S. Nationals last month). I can't believe a coach as good as Frank Carroll would let Tim's flutz go uncorrected. I'm wondering if it was the rather odd entry to the 3z in Tim's program that caused the flutz. By the way, after the big-time deductions Sarah got at Nationals, I'm eager to see how much correction she was able to do in the last five weeks. Since she under-rotates almost all her jumps, I'm guessing not much.

Actually, I didn't spot other flutzes, but I didn't spot Honda either...I was thinking more about the Bulgarian skater who bailed out of a triple lutz attempt twice. There was at least one other skater who bailed out of a triple lutz in that second last group--can't remember which one. Trying to remember who succeeded at one now--Yagudin, Plushenko, Stojko (not a quad, though!).
It just seemed to me that there were more problems with the lutzes than the axel that night.

According to this article in the LA Times, Irina might try a triple salchow-triple loop-half loop-triple salchow combination in the free skate.

She so crazy!!!

I don't know if she's serious about doing it or not (the article doesn't even say how many times she successfully hit that combo, just that she's "toyed with it"), but that combination would up the technical ante big-time in the free skate. I have my doubts that Irina will come anywhere nailing that combo in competition because when she does nail the 3s-3l (something she's done only twice in the last year), she usually has little speed coming out of it. But who knows? It definitely adds to the suspense.

She tried a similar combo at the Grand Prix Finals. She hit a snag on the second jump and had to bail out. I am not sure she is really ready for something like that. It would make a statement, however. (Kind of like a quad throw in the pairs. Too bad that did not quite come off.)

Tomorrow night is the first round of the big fight. I hope that there is no controversy and everyone skates well. It would be awesome to see a U.S. sweep, but that is probably asking for too much.

I'm so nervous for Michelle Kwan.

OK, boys, what's your predictions for tonight?
1. Kwan
2. Sluts
3. Hughes
4. Buts
5. Cohen

Here's my prediction for the short program:

1. Kwan
2. Hughes
3. SLUT skaya
4. BUTTER skaya
5. Cohen

Hey, hey, hey, no need for name calling.

Hey what about France's Hubert - I think the fix must be on!!

This is tough to predict, but here's my shot:

1. Kwan
2. Slutskaya
3. Butyrskaya
4. Hughes
5. Cohen

I'm picking Michelle for first because, well, she's the best all-around skater in the field. Irina gets second because she's a great skater, and the judges just like her. Butyrskaya gets third because she's the only one in the top five with a true triple lutz, and she is recent world champion, after all. Hughes should get fifth because of her flutz and other under-rotated jumps, but gets fourth because she's got more of a rep than Cohen.

Too hard to predict. I just have a feeling MK will be in first, but history shows a clean SLutskaya beats out a clean Michelle in the short. But I don't feel Irina will skate clean so I give it to Michelle. And it's untested of how the judges will judge MK now that she has the 3lz/2loop.

1)Kwan
2)Hughes
3)Slutskaya
4)Butyrskaya
5)Cohen

My wish list:
1)Kwan
2)Hughes
3)Butyrskaya
4)Slutskaya
5)Cohen

1 - Kwan
2 - Cohen
3 - Slutskaya
4 - Butryskaya
5 - Hughes

The final standings are in! :-P

1)Michelle Kwan-held on to the landing of the flip, but otherwise clean.
2)Slutskaya-clean
3)Cohen-clean
4)Hughes- clean, but close to the boards
5)Butyrskaya-struggled, buy otherwise landed everything on one foot.

Was anyone else holding their breath during Michelle Kwan's entire routine?

I know I was.

Cohen - wow. She was incredible. I thought nerves would get her, but wow. I felt bad for Hughes because I think she keeps ending up the big loser and is ignored and nitpicked by the evil creature were Bezic!Hamilton. It seems like she doesn't get a fair shake.

Slutskaya was dynamic, Butraskaya was shaky.

I'll be able to sleep tonight, but come tomorrow and Thursday, I'll be a bundle of nerves.

Michelle skated a beautiful program and was clearly on top of her skate tonight. I was not too surprised that there was such a split in the judging. However, Michelle (a little bias in this statement, but not much) was just the better skater. Her program flows and is so lovely to watch. Her marks for required elements were somewhat suspect from the four judges who placed her second. (Her presentation marks had to be high, so they had to fudge the first mark to get Irina in ahead of her.) Even Michelle disagreed with the first set of marks.

I thought Sasha outshined the remainder of the field. She was really outstanding. Still, when the whole place is looking at Michelle vs. Irina, it is hard to sneak into one of the top two places. I hope she free skates as well.

Thursday could be a wild evening.

I thought Michelle could have skated a bit faster. She needs to pick up the speed in her free skate(which I believe she will). She slipped off of the toe pick in her flip jump, but I wouldn't have known otherwise except that Scott pointed it out. Did you notice the Russian judge placed Sarah Hughes in 9th? My god! This judge has been showing up alot lately in competitions. No wonder a cloud of suspicion surrounds the Russians what with continuously putting this suspended judge on the panel and at ice dancing, the suspended judge was from Ukraine. Well, they asked for it.

I would not have put Sasha Cohen ahead of Irina though, as some judges did. I must admit, Irina looks to be at the top of her game. Great ice coverage.

SO here is my breakdown
Irina: speed, ice coverage, height of jumps, spins

Michelle: flow out of jumps, footwork into the 3flip, spirals.

[ February 19, 2002: Message edited by: savvy ]

The Russian judge was really biased. The Russiand and Belarus judges gave extremely high marks to Butraskaya.

Take note the American judge put Michelle in 2nd.

No one is happier than me that Michelle is in first. HOWEVER, I think the only reason why she is because she skated after everybody else. She skated that program a lot better in '98 and and actually looked a little ho-hum to me especially during the footwork part. She still skated pretty cautiously and really needs to open it up a bit. Does anyone know what the drawer is for Thursady night yet? Plus I've decided to give up my perfect attendance in school that night to watch...

I think savvy has done a nice job of pointing out the strengths of Kwan & Slutskaya. Personally, I would have picked Slutskaya, but I'm partial to athletic skaters (Midori Ito and Elvis Stojko are my faves). I know--I'm a philistine.

I'm glad the editor of International Skating Magazine is not a judge. Here are his comments about Slutskaya:

"No question that Slutskaya had the technical quality, but for me, she just didn't deliver a commanding performance. There was a lot of waving of arms for no good reason. I didn't like her costume."

Bad costuming. Now that's a good reason to downgrade a performance. He actually preferred Butyrskaya.

I am probably the only one but Michelle’s skating just does nothing for me what so ever. I don’t see the beauty and elegance that most see when watching her skating, it is very unmoving and just sort of jump – skate around – jump – skate around – spins – skate around and then give a big smile at the end. No real flow and definitely not an Olympic caliber performance. Once again IF (BIG IF) she wins I feel it is going to be givin to her because of her name. I will be rooting for Sasha Cohen all the way – by far the best skater last night!!

''I'll be able to sleep tonight, but come tomorrow and Thursday, I'll be a bundle of nerves.'' Are the herbal teas and meditation tapes not working, Lev Stone?

I, for one, can't get too excited about this competition. I'm pulling for Michelle, but if she doesn't make it, so be it. I invested far too much emotion in the Sale/Pelletier saga last week, coming into work on Tuesday bleary eyed and foaming at the mouth. I can't go through that again. I'm a shell of a man, a husk, with nothing left to give.


[ February 20, 2002: Message edited by: Jerzoid ]

Actually, I thought the Russian judge was just about right in giving Sarah Hughes a 5.1 required elements mark. Five of the nine judges got her RE mark right (besides the Russian judge's 5.1, she got two 5.2's and two 5.3's) -- the flutz is a .3 deduction, the two-footed landing on the flip is a .2-.3, and the break in footwork before the flip is a .1-.2. Since the minimum deduction is .6, the scores of the Canadian and U.S. judges (5.6 and 5.5) are ridiculous. But funny how you don't hear any outcry about the North Americans' bias.

Sparty On, I respect your opinion but emphatically disagree with you here. The notion that Michelle's performance lacked any flow & "was definitely not an Olympic caliber performance" is laughable. She's not the best jumper, granted, but when she's on fire, she glides across that ice like a goddess. There's a reason Michelle's one of the greatest skaters of her time.

And as far as Michelle sort of just jumping, skating around and smiling at the end, how is that radically different from other skaters?

It was definitely a watered down version of Rachmaninoff, but if you have seen her skate to Red Violin in 2000, you'd see why we rave that she is the greatest artist in figure skating.

I'm sure some of the judges didnt catch Sarah's two footed landing. They have the option to see the replay but don't always do so. If it was a two foot, it was one of the two-footed landings that just slightly touches the top of the ice and can be very difficult to catch.

I don't remember the draw but it was something like:

1)Maria Bute or Sarah Hughes
2)Maria Bute or Sarah Hughes
3)Sasha Cohen
4)Michelle Kwan
5)Irina Slute

...and some other European who has no chance of making the podium is somewhere in the front.

[quote]Originally posted by savvy:
I'm sure some of the judges didnt catch Sarah's two footed landing. They have the option to see the replay but don't always do so. If it was a two foot, it was one of the two-footed landings that just slightly touches the top of the ice and can be very difficult to catch.

---

That still doesn't explain the 5.5's and 5.6's. The .3 for the flutz (which you can spot from a mile away) and the .2 for lack of footwork before the flip (no excuse for not spotting that) means a minimum deduction of .5 ... that makes the 5.6 mathematically impossible, and means the judges who awarded a 5.5 gave Sarah's program a 6.0 start value (yeah, right). True, the two-footed landing on the flip was subtle, but a good judge would know to look for a two-footed landing whenever the free leg is so close to the ice. Since the other two deductions were so obvious (certainly no need for replay on either, unless a judge wants to see just how badly Sarah flutzed), they had enough time to instant-replay the flip. Remember, these judges aren't Schmoes who were randomly picked out of the audience. These are people who have decades of experience in the sport and have judged at every level leading up the Olympics. They knew better. [By the way, I was kidding about the North American bias.]

I actually would have given the SP to Irina. Even if Michelle had better flow coming out of the jumps (good call, savvy), Irina had incredible height and a slightly more difficult combination. I preferred Michelle's footwork sequence over Irina's, but Irina's fast, all-on-one-foot sequence was technically superior. I was very impressed by the speed of Irina's spins, although her centering was a bit off at times. Her position on that catch-foot layback is a knockout. Without a doubt, Michelle wins the spiral sequence, while Irina's spiral is only about fourth best. Still, that makes 7 elements for Irina (three jumps, three spins, footwork) and only one for Michelle. I can understand why Irina was a bit unhappy about her placement.

Since the required elements mark is the tiebreaker in the SP, I would have put Irina over Michelle, and Maria over Sarah. But these are all minor quibbles, really. Maria can still win the bronze if she places 3rd in the long, and between Irina and Michelle, whoever wins the the free skate wins the gold.

Predictions for tonight? Oooh, that's tough. The men's was easy to pick, but nothing's clear about the ladies event. Well, here goes nothing:

1. Kwan
2. Slutskaya
3. Cohen
4. Hughes
5. Butyrskaya

Yes, I'm predicting free skate placements are identitical to the SP ordinals, so I'm not exacty going out on a limb here. But here's my rationale ... As much as the judges loved Michelle's SP (straight 5.9's for presentation), I don't think Sheheradze will wow them as much. On the other hand, Irina's "Tosca" is a much better-choreographed program than her short, and the judges will reward her accordingly. Still, Michelle's grace is unmatched, and the programm has a brilliant finish. Michelle should get the edge in presentation. The only way Irina wins is if she hits two 3-3 combos. She hit the triple salchow-triple loop fairly recently (Euros and Russian Nationals, I believe), but hasn't hit the triple lutz-triple loop since the 2000 GPF. I don't think she'll be able to pull it off, and Michelle will finally get her gold medal.

Sasha was so impressive with her delicate balance of aggressive attack yet with a cool head and calm nerves. I'm guessing she keeps it up and wins the bronze. Sarah's flutzing and under-rotated jumps have been serious problems for some time now. They finally caught up with her at this year's U.S. Nationals, and now it looks like the international judges are onto her too. I'd be tempted to place her event below Maria, but Maria's just too inconsistent. Also, I've never seen a skater look more worried than Maria did in her SP.

One final note: it looks like Sasha Cohen's a strong candidate for short track, what with the way she's always so close to colliding with Michelle during practice sessions. It happened again!

Well if the American judge was biased, it offsets the Russian judge who put Sarah in league technically with Victoria Volchkova who doubled her flip, and turned out of her lutz, with mediocre spirals and spin positions and also lack of footwork going into the jump.

I saw the short programs over again, and I noticed that Irina's double loop was very cheated with more than a half revolution done before even leaving the ice. Even more obvious when you hear the long "sliding" noise on the ice as she is attempting her loop. This leaves me to believe that her sal/loop and ltz/loop attempts in the long are going to be devastatingly bad.

I think the altitude may get to her. She said in an interview that she was tired after the flip, which is not understandable considering how much her program was frontloaded. Another reason why I don't think she will overtake Michelle in the long is that she has said that she is going to plan her jumps after she sees what the other girls are doing. Very bad strategy! She has to commit to her program which is one reason I think Michelle drawing before Irina is a good placement for Michelle. Irina's spirals were much improved upon, but Michelle's spins were as well. Irina has a straighter leg in the spiral sequence with much more stretch than before. Michelle has more revolutions in the spins than she has had in the past.

Maria's lutz was absolutely beautiful in the take off. It had such a clean outside edge that is twice as deep as that of Irina's or Michelle's. I would have placed her in third before Sasha and Sarah.

Look out! I want Sasha to try her tactics with Irina who has pushed around 15 year old boys for invading her space.

OH
MY
GOD !!

I am so happy for Sarah Hughes. She skated a phenomenal program, and is a deserving winner.

But mt heart goes out to Michelle Kwan. She will always be one of the all-time greats.