charliecstl
Jul 10 2003, 06:31 PM
This commentary ran in the Boston Globe. The author takes a different look at the issues that may drive votes in 2004. He draws some interesting points, and the article finds me hopeful that more and more of the sheep will realize the pen is getting smaller and smaller.
QUOTE
Well, this writer thinks the administration is whistling past the graveyard. Here's why the economy is likely to rain on George Bush's 2004 election parade: For starters, the unemployment numbers are truly awful. Since Bush took office the economy has shed almost 2.5 million jobs, the worst performance since the administration of Herbert Hoover. A weak job market also means flat or declining wages and benefits for those employed.
...
This time people are not likely to feel great in the fall of 2004. Few economists expect a dramatic turnaround either in the stock market or in the unemployment numbers. Stocks have rebounded slightly, but corporate profits have not gained enough ground to justify the kind of stock market growth that people took for granted in the booming 1990s. And businesses are trying to rebuild profits by shedding labor - which means less new job creation and flat wages.
and
QUOTE
Bush can rightly claim that he inherited the aftermath of the Internet bubble. But the fair rejoinder is to ask what he did about it.
What he did, of course, was to bestow an immense tax cut tilted to the very affluent. This was advertised as projobs. But as antirecession medicine, it's about the weakest remedy available. The very rich don't spend most of that money. And in a soft economy, neither do they invest it entrepreneurially. The venture capital boom has still not recovered from the Internet bust.
It would have been much more tonic to deliver that money to the hard pressed states and cities, something that presidents of both parties have done in previous downturns; to spend it on services like health and education and child care; and to tilt the tax cut downwards, putting buying power in the pockets of working families. So Bush will be rightly held accountable for economic policies since January 2001.
But what about Topic A, national security? The Bush team mounted a successful invasion of Baghdad, but they're no better at rebuilding Iraq's economy, society, and security than at reviving our own. And their foolish economic policy of starve-the- states also hurts homeland security.
Count this president increasingly vulnerable on both fronts.
And the entire piece:
Can Bush Get Reelected?
danimal
Jul 11 2003, 10:23 AM
Patience is not exactly a hallmark of American culture (we're the nation that invented fast food

), so the longer the occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan drag on, and the more potshots are taken at soldiers who (for the most part) just want to get out and come home, and the longer those taunting tapes (real or otherwise) of Hussein keep airing, the weaker the current administration looks on national security. Paying enlisted servicemembers peanuts (and "part-time" Guard/reservists even less) doesn't help either. And that's assuming no major attacks before the election ("Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me"). Gulf War II could backfire just like Gulf War I.
Then again, it could all come down to whose ad budget is bigger. Sorry if I sound cynical, but looking back on the past few decades, I have my reasons.
GatorJamie
Jul 11 2003, 10:26 AM
... and as my Daddy says, "Never underestimate the stupidity of the American public." frown
hockeyTom
Jul 11 2003, 11:07 AM
GJ: you are so right honey. Again, this next years election is so important. As a community we cannot let apathy win out!
GatorJamie
Jul 11 2003, 11:11 AM
QUOTE
puckman1:
As a community we cannot let apathy win out!
Let's tell 'em to
puck off!
wink
William1865
Jul 11 2003, 11:22 AM
This is a really interesting situation for the Dems. They really have to hope that things don't get better for the US in the coming year. More job losses would be great. More dead soldiers in Iraq would be splendid. Another terrorist attack would be boffo. This is really the only way the Democrats can win.
[ July 11, 2003, 12:52 PM: Message edited by: William1865 ]
hockeyTom
Jul 11 2003, 11:30 AM
Have to want things to go rather terribly next year?? William, what about now? Where have you been????? wink
mdphl
Jul 11 2003, 12:47 PM
Snapshots from the past few weeks:
1.
mdphl
Jul 11 2003, 12:49 PM
Let's try it again -- damn, I'll learn to work this computer sometime in my lifetime
Snapshots from the past few weeks:
1.
mdphl
Jul 11 2003, 12:55 PM
Let's try this again ---
The past few weeks I have had the following experiences that tell me the economy is tanking:
1. Went to Rehoboth Beach for the 4th weekend. Four friends from DC lost their jobs within the past few months.
2. The place we stay told us they haven't been this slow since the 1980's.
3. Didn't need a reservation at any of the restaurants where you usually have to book a week in advance for the holiday.
4. Another friend was laid off from his editing job this week.
5. Noticed that even in the service sector in the resort areas there are no Help Wanted signs.
And on it goes... This recession is finally starting to hit home for a lot of people who were very apathetic.
The tax cuts have done NOTHING to stimulate the economy. This President is the biggest deficit spender in history. No coherent economic policy and spending billions on bogus wars. People are starting to "get it".
RazorbackTX
Jul 11 2003, 01:14 PM
QUOTE
puckman1:
William, what about now? Where have you been????? wink
Leaving the P&R thread...
Coming back...
Leaving....
Coming back...
oh, and busy working from within.
William1865
Jul 11 2003, 01:24 PM
The new tax cuts have barely kicked in yet, they just started registering in people's paychecks. Child tax credits will start going out soon. The tax cuts would have been more effective if they were bigger, but Dems kept them miniscule because they don't want the economy to recover. Here in Northern Virginia, I see "Help Wanted" signs all over the place. Two of my friends just got new jobs. If some places were overstaffed or poorly managed to begin with, that's not the President's fault.
Besides - what's the Dems solution to all of this? A $2 trillion tax hike? That's what Dean's calling for. Bring 'em on.
charliecstl
Jul 11 2003, 02:15 PM
William, I really want to know what you put in your Ovaltine every morning. Perhaps we all need some of it to cloud over the reality of what is actually going on out in the world. Bigger tax cuts? Jobs available all over the place?
Perhaps your neighborhood is located in the 2% of the country where every day brings rainbows and leprachauns with pots of gold. Most of the rest of us are living in every day America where people are out of work, pissed off, and wanting to know when someone will care enough to make things better.
Spreading pixie dust all over may seem like fun, but in the end, it just requires you to do more vacuuming.
mdphl
Jul 11 2003, 02:27 PM
The tax cuts the idiot put in place in Texas have now had years to "work". They have produced disastrous results. William -- how can you possibly defend this guy's fiscal policies with a straight face?
William1865
Jul 11 2003, 02:46 PM
QUOTE
mdphl:
The tax cuts the idiot put in place in Texas have now had years to \"work\". They have produced disastrous results.
This from a guy who took three tries to post a list.
William1865
Jul 11 2003, 02:54 PM
Originally posted by mdphl: The past few weeks I have had the following experiences that tell me the economy is tanking:
Went to Rehoboth Beach for the 4th weekend. Four friends from DC lost their jobs within the past few months.
***What are they doing in Rehoboth then? Shouldn't they be saving money?****
Originally posted by mdphl: The place we stay told us they haven't been this slow since the 1980's.
****Maybe that place just sucks, or better places have opened. Hasn't Rehoboth gotten somewhat more popular and thus developed since the 80s?****
Originally posted by mdphl: Didn't need a reservation at any of the restaurants where you usually have to book a week in advance for the holiday.
******Well hell, count your blessings. On behalf of President Bush and all Republicans, let me offer my most sincere apologies that you got to eat where you wanted to eat. *******
Originally posted by mdphl: Noticed that even in the service sector in the resort areas there are no Help Wanted signs.
*****Maybe they had hired everybody they needed to hire in preparation for the busy summer season.********
Originally posted by mdphl: And on it goes... This recession is finally starting to hit home for a lot of people who were very apathetic.
******Oh, yes. Fear and Loathing in Rehoboth. There goes the crucial "People Who Summer At Beach Resorts Popular With Gays and Lesbians" voting bloc. How will Bush ever take Deleware's must-have electoral votes without the support of people who don't even live there?****************
William1865
Jul 11 2003, 02:57 PM
QUOTE
charliecstl:
Perhaps your neighborhood is located in the 2% of the country where every day brings rainbows and leprachauns with pots of gold. Most of the rest of us are living in every day America where people are out of work, pissed off, and wanting to know when someone will care enough to make things better.
I'm giving you anecdotal evidence, just like mdphl was giving anecdotal evidence. You didn't seem to mind his "Rehoboth Beach on a holiday weekend = A bellweather for the American economy" argument.
cowboystx
Jul 11 2003, 03:23 PM
William1865, can you please condense your messages into one post. Do not send multiple posts. On behalf of Outsports, your cooperation in this matter is greatly appreciated.
[ July 11, 2003, 03:25 PM: Message edited by: cowboystx ]
Herr Tiggee
Jul 11 2003, 04:35 PM
Since I live in a B2B world, and interact with all ranges of business, I can tell you that I've noticed that companies are a little more willing in the last six months to make small upgrades in their business. Spending is rising, if only slightly. But the spending is not on head count.
What I hear, over and over again, is that personnel expansion is not on anyone's radar. At least for the clients I work with. So although the corporate world is moving toward a slight recovery, this recovery is not geared toward to lessening the 6.4% unemployment rate. Employers seem to have become entrenched in expecting their staff to do far more, and to do it for the same salary or possibly even with a pay cut.
This is a recipe for higher crime rates in the not too distant future. LA is a perfect example - crime reached an apex in the mid 90's. It then fell (without the aid of the incompetent LAPD) in the late 90's. Why? More people had jobs...and hope.
Now crime is once more on the rise in LA.
William1865
Jul 14 2003, 06:33 AM
QUOTE
cowboystx:
William1865, can you please condense your messages into one post. Do not send multiple posts. On behalf of Outsports, your cooperation in this matter is greatly appreciated.
Did the moderators ask you to post this? If so, I can't imagine why they didn't just post it themselves as opposed to having someone else post it. At any rate, you could have sent me a private message, rather than trying to show me up in front of the entire board. Sorry you guys seem to think I'm such a f**k up.
At any rate (notice this is all in one post, I'm sure everyone's so proud of me...)
A) The first post was referring to a feature of a specific post, i.e. the trouble he had posting, as opposed to the substance of the post. In the two subsequent posts, I was replying to two different posts, from two different posters, who said two different things. I would think it would be confusing to throw a bunch of stuff together like that.

What difference does it make anyway? If I "condensed" them both into one post, it would be exactly the same length, just in one post. Is there some technical reason why it is better to have one long post responding to several different posts as opposed to two separate posts which, lengthwise, would equal the same as the one long post? I honestly don't understand.
[ July 14, 2003, 06:48 AM: Message edited by: William1865 ]
RazorbackTX
Jul 14 2003, 08:31 AM
Originally posted by William1865:
Sorry you guys seem to think I'm such a f**k up.
Does this mean you're leaving and never coming back again, again?
wink
PhillyFan
Jul 14 2003, 09:14 AM
Boy oh boy, you guys should quit pickin on wm1865... or else...
if ya'all are basing the economy on "personal" travel experiences... PF was in Vegas, and that joint was PACKED... Casino was packed... pool was packed... so the economy must be GREAT. To the gloom and doomers, that will be dismissed... but an easy reservation means the world is in a depression... blah... next...
Charlie in the Trees
Jul 14 2003, 09:28 AM
QUOTE
William1865:
Did the moderators ask you to post this? If so, I can't imagine why they didn't just post it themselves as opposed to having someone else post it.
W1865: The problem that I have with your posts are that they are (1) too short and (2) too infrequent. They need to be longer and more frequent, so that I can savor each word, each thrust and parry.
RazorbackTX
Jul 14 2003, 10:05 AM
QUOTE
PhillyFan:
PF was in Vegas, and that joint was PACKED... Casino was packed... pool was packed...
Bill Bennett does take up alot of space.
PhillyFan
Jul 14 2003, 10:14 AM
Billy B handed PF a chip and said good luck kid... i cashed it in and hit the nickle slots rather than those 50 dollar machines...
Since ya'all can easily judge the economy via someones little vacation and not waiting in line for a table... I thought i would offset that theory and call it even.
RazorbackTX
Jul 14 2003, 11:36 AM
QUOTE
PhillyFan:
Billy B handed PF a chip and said good luck kid... i would offset that theory and call it even.
I know you cant be talking about a potato or corn chip, BB would never give that up.
PhillyFan
Jul 14 2003, 12:13 PM
I said bill... while we were chowing down at the buffet... maybe you should spend some more time in the salad line rather than the crab leg line...
GatorJamie
Jul 14 2003, 12:22 PM
To which he replied, "
Don't bet on it."
William1865
Jul 14 2003, 01:30 PM
QUOTE
PhillyFan:
I said bill... while we were chowing down at the buffet... maybe you should spend some more time in the salad line rather than the crab leg line...
Pasta salad...potato salad...macaroni salad...egg salad...shrimp salad...tuna salad...crab salad...chicken salad...pork chop salad...Bennett would still be a happy camper...
PhillyFan
Jul 14 2003, 01:48 PM
There was no potato or pork chop salad cause the DOJ homos ate it all at the pic-nic they had.
RazorbackTX
Jul 14 2003, 05:04 PM
QUOTE
PhillyFan:
i cashed it in and hit the nickle slots
Good for you PhillyFan I knew you'd find some way to spend that tax cut money.
PhillyFan
Jul 14 2003, 05:09 PM
CITT explained the budget problems of the state, so i did my best to now give them a surplus.
William1865
Jul 15 2003, 02:41 PM
QUOTE
RazorbackTX:
Originally posted by William1865:
Sorry you guys seem to think I'm such a f**k up.
Does this mean you're leaving and never coming back again, again?
wink
I've actually been thinking about this. Maybe it's all the talk about Designing Women and seersuckers (other threads, no pun intended), but I'm really getting in touch with my inner Southern belle. What I need is a door to slam. You know how we have smiley faces, sad faces, surprised faces, etc.? I need an icon that represents a door being slammed hard enough to be heard two or three houses away.
That way, I won't just leave the P&R forum, I'll go out with a flourish. And then, after announcing in no uncertain terms that "I am never speaking to you ever again for as long as I live. Ever!" I could then fling the door back open a while later, stomp back in and say, "And let me tell you something else..." Southern belles are notorious door slammers, but they always come back for more.
Just an idea...
RazorbackTX
Jul 15 2003, 02:44 PM
I like it William. Everytime you say you're leaving and not coming back Ill try to visualize you slamming a door.
fantomas
Jul 15 2003, 10:26 PM
[quote]William1865:
[QUOTE]What I need is a door to slam. You know how we have smiley faces, sad faces, surprised faces, etc.? I need an icon that represents a door being slammed hard enough to be heard two or three houses away. [/quote]Just make sure there's no Addison DeWitt ("All about Eve") nearby to destroy your door-slamming stunt with the devastating line, "You're too short for that gesture!"
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