Abortion stand could risk votes for Casey, from today's Harrisburg Patriot.
Santorum's last opponent, former Congressman and KDKA (Pittsburgh) anchor Ron Klink, was also pro-life, and Santorum defeated him by about 6%.
Of course, Klink didn't benefit from the three things that are working in Casey's favor: (1) Santorum's high profile and 47% unfavorable rating; (2) very high name recognition stemming from his multiple statewide campaigns for row offices (Governor, Auditor General and Treasurer); and, (3) sharing the same name as his now deceased father, former Gov. Robert P. Casey (the same Casey who was denied the platform at a DNC because of his pro-life stance and was the defendant in Planned Parenthood v. Casey).
Whatever votes Casey, Jr. may lose because of his anti-abortion stand, he may gain among PA's many "Reagan Democrats" (a group that GWB failed to capture in numbers large enough swing PA for him in either 2000 or 2004), particularly in his home area of Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, where the Casey name is gold.
However, its worth noting that Casey's father never ran well in the Philly suburbs. In his first election in 1986, which he won with barely 50% of the vote (after it was leaked that his opponent LtGov Bill Scranton III, son of another governor and current candidate to take on Rendell, smoked pot in college), he took 39.59% in Bucks County, 39.50% in Delaware County and 33.69% in Montgomery County. In 1990, Casey, Sr. beat Barbara Hafer with a 67.65% of the vote, but with comparatively lesser margins in the Philly suburbs: 58.58% in Bucks, 54.82% in Delaware, and 49.84% in Montgomery.
A May IssuesPA poll found the following:
QUOTE
Regional differences in Santorum favorability are smaller. He gets above average ratings in Northeastern PA (58% favorable/20% unfavorable), South Central PA (51%/21%) and “Rest of State” (52%/24%). His “negatives” are somewhat higher in the Southeastern region (42%/30%) and Southwestern PA (49%/37%).
His VERY high favorable rating in Northeastern PA, the Casey stronghold, is not surprising, but should be of concern to Casey.
I think the race will also come down to how many "RINOs" or Rendell-icans (the moderate Republicans who crossed lines and became Democrats for the sole purpose of voting for Rendell and against Casey in the 2001 Dem primary) stay home or vote Casey out of distaste for Santorum's strong conservative views.
What's interesting here is that many of those Rendell Republicans crossed the line when they saw a very weak Republican candidate in Atty General Mike Fisher (who now sits on the Third Circuit), and a battle of titans looming in the Dem. primary for Governor in Rendell v. Casey. More than any great love for Rendell, most Rendell-icans I know were STRONGLY anti-Casey.
[ June 10, 2005, 08:15 AM: Message edited by: PennState4Ever ]