Everywhere I travel, I hear the cries of anxious progressives who fear Dubya is about to be elected. "The poll, the polls," they wail, pointing to constant reports that the election is nip and tuck.
Let me say it plainly to you: The polls are horsepuckey, and George W. is a one term president, just like his daddy, here's why:
First the sad little secret of pollsters is that roughly a third of the people in their "scientific" sample of voters, hang up when called. This wreaks havoc on the validity of their sample.
Second, noted independent pollster John Zogby says flatly, that this years polling has largely been skewed to Bush, because more Republicans than Democrats are being called.
Third, pollsters are working from lists of "likely voters"-Americans who have been voting regularly in the past elections. This leaves out the one half of the electorate that has not been voting in recent presidential runs. This time-surprise, George!-a significant percentage of these "unlikely voters" are going to show up at their polling booths. They're motivated by Bush's failed economic policies, the ongoing mess he has made in Iraq, and a growing sense, that America is headed in the wrong direction.
Fourth, and this will be a big source of Bush's November surprise-young people are headed to the polls in droves. Registration of 18-29 year olds is through the roof this year, mostly motivated by the war, the expectation of a draft being imposed after the election, and by the disappearance of the middle-class opportunities for their generation.
Why isn't this surge in youth reported in the polls? Because young folks mostly don't have home telephones. They use cell phones, and pollsters don't have these numbers, so practically none of them have received a call from pollsters.
I know I am going out on a limb here, but I think Kerry is going to win, and win big-despite what the polls keep telling us.
I agree with you Jim!!
[ October 21, 2004, 12:23 PM: Message edited by: puckman1 ]