fantomas
Dec 18 2002, 08:58 AM
A mess, a total mess. The media in general are not parsing out the struggle either, which is very problematic.
Chavez's opponents mostly HAVE BEEN the upper middle class and the rich, who constitute a very small mostly European sliver of the population. They have never supported the man and have found his ideology, his political posturing (pro-Castro, pro-Iraq, etc.), and his economic and social policies to be utterly anathema to their way of life. Before Chavez took office, this class ran the country and all its major institutions, and were quite content to keep the poor poor and enrich themselves.
Chavez's supporters mostly HAVE BEEN the poor and working-class, who have directly benefited from his policies to nationalize aspects of the economy and redistribute wealth. The vast majority of them are mixed (Spanish, Indian, Black) Venezuelans, like Chavez himself. He has started these local clubs, which are heavily armed, to build economic and social solidarity, but of course they're turning into mini-militias. Because of the country's troubled history, there are far more poor people than rich.
The middle class, which grew sizably during the last 20 years, did support Chavez in the election, but their support of him has steadily eroded, and many of them are now in the anti-Chavez camp.
Since Venezuelan constitutional law allows for a referendum next fall, according to which if Chavez receives a vote of no-confidence from a majority of citizens, he must resign. He has said more than once that he would abide by that. The anti-Chavez folks would like to short circuit the democratic process and force him out early, hold new elections, and get someone more acceptable to them in. The pro-Chavezistas (the Bolivarian folks) have little to lose at this point, so they probably would gladly fight a war to keep him in office. The army is on his side right now, so that's not an option for the upper classes.
The best bet, I think, is for some entity with influence among the rich folks (i.e., the United States) to get them to bide their time and avoid a civil war. They can get him out via the referendum. He hasn't been a good leader at all, and he's certainly no Lula or Ricardo Lagos, both of whom are Leftists leaders of major Latin American countries. If, however, the anti-Chavez forces push through a coup or civil war, they will have destroyed any possibility of getting the poor and working-class majority to believe in the viability of democracy, and they could easily have another Colombia on their hands.
Billy
Dec 18 2002, 09:19 AM
Interesting side note to what is going on down there: back in April, Hugo Chavez was briefly deposed in a coup more-or-less openly supported by Washington. But it collapsed when people rioted & other Latin American governments (notably Mexico's Vicente Fox) condemned it. Later word leaked out that Chavez had been tipped off about the coming putsch by an ally within OPEC who had connections & intelligence. Chavez acted on this tip by secretly quartering troops in the presidential palace, so when the coup started & the businessman (I forget his name) who has been installed as president arrived in the palace, he found himself virtually imprisoned there by the troops loyal to Chavez.
It was a brief moment of egg-on-face for the Bush administration, but of course it was quickly forgotten.