Outsports Discussion Board > Northeast Due for Hurricane of Historic Proportions

Full Version: Northeast Due for Hurricane of Historic Proportions

Outsports Discussion Board > Outsports > Real Life

MIB

Mar 21 2006, 09:00 AM

Thank God this is all supposition and probably bullshit anyway.

The story

Note this ominous excerpt from that article:

QUOTE

Additionally, AccuWeather.com believes that the upper Texas coast is likely to be the target of higher than normal hurricane and tropical storm activity over the next 10 years. \"Hurricane Rita was a warning shot,\" says AccuWeather.com's Bastardi, referring to the 2005 Category 5 storm that threatened the Houston area and made landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border last September. \"The Texas coast is in for a long period of tropical activity, particularly the region from Corpus Christi to Sabine Pass at the Louisiana border.\"

Well, if it means that popinjay Razorback will get washed away...

[ March 21, 2006, 08:02 AM: Message edited by: MIB ]

Joe in Philly

Mar 21 2006, 09:53 AM

There's a blog on Phila. weather I look at, and the AccuWeather story was discussed today.

QUOTE

So, are we due for something in the next few years and are we underprepared? I do think the odds FAVOR a strike in New England by a significant tropical storm or hurricane in the next two or three years. I also do believe that the odds favor this system, or another, to take a track that would also impact us in the Mid-Atlantic. Whether that system is a flood-producer like Floyd or a wind producer like Isabel would remain to be seen. Do the odds favor this storm being a major hurricane? Perhaps, but it takes a near perfect combination of factors to allow a hurricane to maintain category 3 status this far north:

*Fast-moving storm, at least 40 mph in forward momentum.
*Perfect steering component between an advancing trough and a high pressure ridge in the Western Atlantic.
*Category 4 Hurricane in the region of 30 degrees north latitude.
*Ocean temperatures near 80 degrees as far north as Cape May.

So I guess I won't personally worry too much...unless there's nothing being done about global warming...oh, wait...

[ March 21, 2006, 08:54 AM: Message edited by: Joe in Philly ]

HotlantaTarheel

Mar 22 2006, 07:16 AM

Even though I have debated with MIB about global warming and believe there is ample evidence for it, I don't believe that anyone can predict future events that may/may not be caused by its existance/non-existance. Nor can anyone predict individual weather events. However, anyone can say something like "since we have a bad hurricane about every 10 years and we haven't had one in 8 years, we're due". Such things are purely speculation and about as valuable as using the farmer's almanac for weather forecasts. (in my opinion, of course)

[ March 22, 2006, 06:23 AM: Message edited by: HotlantaTarheel ]

MIB

Mar 22 2006, 08:24 AM

Don't tell me you do not believe the Farmer's Almanac! How can you not? Do you know how reliable it is? How accurate it is?

Come on now. Get with the program!

CPT_Doom

Mar 22 2006, 08:40 AM

Well global warming or not, it is a fact that major hurricanes have hit the Northeast before (I still remember my grandparents' generation talking about the Hurricane of 38) and it appears this prediction is based on the likely climate conditions this year. Certainly we know we have hit a period of increased hurricane activity in the last decade; it is not outlandish to think another Northeast hurricane, as rare as they are, is on the way.

JASooner

Mar 22 2006, 06:37 PM

This particular company's tropical predictions are notoriously bad. I wouldn't worry much about it.

This is a "lo-fi" version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.