The 2005 hurricane seasons continues to roll right along. Lee didn't amount to much, just barely made tropical storm status before dissipating. Now Maria was born this morning, but she's expected to remain in the Atlantic and most likely will not threaten any land masses.

An interesting tropical wave is in the southern latitudes west of Africa, and this one has the eyes of the NHC folks, especially since it has the greatest likelihood of affecting land by traversing west across the central Atlantic. In fact, this morning on the boob tube, one dude from Accuweather said this one is expected to become a hurricane and make its way through the Caribbean and--gasp!--quite possibly into the Gulf of Mexico.

(Edited to add: Thankfully this strong wave fizzled out and didn't amount to anything. Tropical Storm Maria won't bother the mainland either. Still a ways to go, though.)

God help those people if this is true.

And to think that the peak of the hurricane season is the second week of September. NOAA's and the NHC's official outlook for the rest of the season--three months to go--is staggering: 12 to 14 more storms, 7 to 9 more hurricanes, with 3 to 5 of these becoming major hurricanes (Cat. 3 or higher).

[ September 03, 2005, 10:55 AM: Message edited by: MIB ]

I need to make a correction. In the locked thread "The Aftermath: US Gulf Coast Devastated by Hurricane Katrina," this exchange occurred:

No, it is a Navy ship. It's the hospital ship USNS Comfort T-AH 20, stationed in Baltimore. It is on its way to New Orleans.

Naturally, it has its own homepage.

USNS Comfort

[ September 03, 2005, 06:40 AM: Message edited by: twin58 ]

The 2005 Hurricane season continues to churn along.

Discussion on Hurricane Maria, which isn't going to bother anybody, thank God.

Discussion on Tropical Storm Nate, which probably won't affect us, but the NHC isn't sure as of right now.

Also, there is a very worrisome tropical disturbance off the east coast of Florida between it and the Bahamas. The NHC believes this can develop into a tropical system soon if it remains over the warm water. Incidentally, this is the SAME place Katrina formed into a hurricane. A frightening sense of deja vu, eh?

Whew! We've mad it through the "N" named storm and it's only the first week of September. eek!

[ September 05, 2005, 08:42 PM: Message edited by: MIB ]

It's a trifecta!

Discussion on Tropical Storm Ophelia, located just off the Florida coast.

[ September 07, 2005, 08:09 PM: Message edited by: MIB ]

Ophelia became a hurricane today. Yet another storm.

Here are the remaining names for this season, which is only half over:

Philippe
Rita
Stan
Tammy
Vince
Wilma

Seems likely that we'll run through the list for the first time ever, I believe. In the event that more than 21 named tropical cyclones occur in the Atlantic basin in a season, additional storms will take names from the Greek alphabet: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and so on.

I can see it now: Hurricane Beta (a test storm) or Hurricane Delta (party storm).

Let's all give a big round of applause to MIB, our resident hurricane news spammer

There are posts on this board much worse than posts about hurricanes. I'll take MIB's hurricane posts over them any day of the week.

Yeah but the beta and delta jokes were weak. Weather nerd weak.

I was thinking Hurricane Delta Burke, pesonally. eek!

I'd rather see them use the same list of names over, but just add "II" to it. Imagine...Arlene II, Bret II, etc. wink

MIB, maybe it's time for you to start thinking about changing the title of the thread to Record Hurricane Season.

To be honest, I don't think there's actually a plan in place. I'm sure the NHC is working one up right now, but as far as I've heard there's nothing in place, b/c no one ever expected a hurricane season to pass 21 named storms, at least in the Atlantic.

If they do move to another set of names, it'll probably either be next year's names, or the international phonetic alphabet used in the early 50's (Able, Baker, etc.).

According to the NHC, the Greek alphabet is used. That's where I got my last paragraph explaining such.

How 'bout "Son of Dennis"? Or "Katrina's bitch"? Or "Jose Jr."?

Jealous of my wonderful sense of humor??? wink

Interesting...

Continue on with the jokes then...

This season reminds me of the 1995 hurricane season, the season that heralded the upswing in Atlantic hurricanes. It just seemed like the tropical storms kept forming. We reached the letter R then, but who knows what we'll reach this year.

Hopefully, this year will signal the end of the upswing...

Here is a bar graph of the storm systems in the Atlantic and Pacific from 1855 to 2000 from this site where you can also find the key. I have seen another graph which I can't locate which showed a drop recently in the totals but a steady rate of major hurricanes in the past three years. There trend looks obvious.

I wouldn't count on that, metro. I personally believe we'll see this high tropical activity through the 2020's or so. While there may be some years that are rather quiet, probably due to an El Nino or two, I believe that on average things will be busy through the mid-2020's. Previous cyclical patterns suggest this as well.

I noticed that according to the NHC, Ophelia is acting like a typical female--she doesn't know where to go or what she's doing.

The latest map of Ophelia.

Look out Georgia and South Carolina! eek!

[ September 09, 2005, 01:46 PM: Message edited by: MIB ]

Well I could be jealous of your wardrobe too, but since I've not seen that either... wink

People in my neck of the woods are starting to get concerned about Ophelia. She's headed further off of the NE than originally expected ... If she continues her NE-ward trek for much longer, she could make landfall in Southeastern NC rather than SC. When Charley did its drive-by last year ... it was a low-level Cat. 1 when it made it's 2nd (or was it 3rd) landfall near Myrtle Beach, yet it still knocked down quite a few trees and took down some signs in Wilmington ... so Ophelia, please ... be gentle.

Nick

[ September 10, 2005, 08:52 AM: Message edited by: The_Hammerman ]

Here's my "official" prediction: Ophelia will strenghten to a category 2, maybe 3 storm, and will make landfall in the North Carolina area.

Well MIB, your location prediction seems to be about right, however, the intensity is off ... thankfully.

Apparently, the upper level through isn't as strong as initially expected, so they're starting to waver as to the timing and the extent of Ophelia's NE-ward jaunt. Classes at UNCW have been cancelled for the near future and unfortunately, my ability to use the equipment for my thesis project is on hold as well. I know that the second complaint is rather selfish, but ... hopefully, everything will be safe around town.

Nick

Believe me, I'm not disappointed that my intensity prediction is off. I didn't expect the upwelling and other items to disrupt her growth as much as they did. She's been one weird storm, that's for sure.

Upwelling has been an issue, although I attribute her intensity issues to the dry air that penetrated into the southern part of the storm ... Given that Ophelia is nearing the Gulf Stream, there is a chance for reintensification. Also, upwelling can be rather overrated with tropical systems because Hurricane Mitch a few years back was a rather broad storm and it was stationary for a fairly long period of time (for tropical storms) yet, it was able to sustain its incredible intensity. (Yes, I'm a weather junkie.)

What's incredibly amusing is that around here, people always joke that when Jim Cantore comes to town, the storm is going to hit the area hard. Since he was in Nags Head yesterday and today, people weren't all that concerned about the storm. However, now that Ophelia has changed course and is going to hit us directly, apparently Cantore is going to be in the area tomorrow. While I lust for Cantore with the passion of a thousand suns, I'd rather he stay away this time.

Nick

[ September 12, 2005, 06:32 PM: Message edited by: The_Hammerman ]

Send me Mike Bettes then. Besides, Mike's GOT to be gay.

Joe, that Hurricane lost strength and was quickly replaced by Hurricane Julia Duffy.

or Dennis's FB

Does Phillippe lurk among these waves?

Looks like Phillippe is about to be born. TD # 17 was confirmed this morning.

That leaves us with Rita, Stan, Tammy, Van, and Wilma left on the list. Fascinating.

18 will probably come around by tomorrow, and is expected to affect South Florida as a TS or a minimal hurricane on or about Tuesday....oh joy...

Indeed. Phillippe is now here, and Rita will be next, real soon. And is that Stan a bit west of Phillippe? eek!

[ September 17, 2005, 08:28 PM: Message edited by: MIB ]

This is the fastest any hurricane season on record has reached 16 named storms. Rita will likely form out of TD 18, as mentioned above, and Stan, Tammy, Van, and Wilma are not far off. I wouldn't be surprised to see a TS Alpha or Beta... How scary is that? Alpha would be the 22nd named storm of the season! That's a LOT of tropical storms...

You mean.....we're not SUPPOSED to be naked???

Honey!! BRING ME MY ROBE!

So is that what happens when we run out of names?

Yes. If we run through the list of names, we go to the Greek Alphabet.

Hurricane watch is out for the Keys now. Maybe THIS time they'll learn they're paying for their decadent ways down there.

[ September 18, 2005, 08:59 AM: Message edited by: MIB ]

We've got our guest bedroom ready for either Rob or Jim from CNN...

Here is a suface analysis map of the Atlantic showing the two storms. Anyone know why Phillipe would be going on a northerly track while Rita is going westerly. Is there a trough under that high in the middle of the Atlantic picking up Phillipe?

surface map

[ September 18, 2005, 03:19 PM: Message edited by: phillyrunner ]

There seem to be two ridges in between which Philippe will sneak. Either that, or it's because as a typical Frenchman, he's just running away into the open waters of the Atlantic.

(Oh! That's just bad!)

Wow! That was quick. Philippe is now a hurricane! eek!

It sounds like Rita just may yet veer a bit farther north than presently predicted. Uh oh.

This is not good, folks!

Rita will become a hurricane later today most likely. She is gaining strength faster than originally expected, another bad sign. The forecast track has been adjusted northward, another bad sign.

This takes her most likely right into the Texas coast as a MAJOR hurricane (Cat. 3, 4, or 5). The Gulf is at its warmest this time of the year due to the Sun's location in the sky. One computer model has her slamming right into New Orleans. eek! If that happens, it'll be the end of that city.

Right now, however, she's predicted to take a dead aim at Houston. If she's a Cat. 4 or 5 storm and hits Houston, the devastation is going to be overwhelming.

And is that Stan developing east of Philippe? Just think: there are 2 1/2 months to go in this hurricane season.
Here's the latest track forecast.

The only good news out of this, is that we should get some more reports from Mr. Hunk himself, Rob Marciano!

Many people don't know that even though Houston is approximately 40 miles inland, it was built on marshland and there is a large natural system of bayous. Many parts of the city flood from ordinary strong thunderstorms. There are reports of some neighborhoods that experience indoor flooding 3 times a year. So you can imagine it is rather difficult to sell your home if you live there. Apparently, Galveston Island has a good evacuation system in place. Residents register with the city and according to where you live, you report to a certain place in town that has buses waiting to take you to inland shelters. So whichever shelter you are assigned to, you always know where family and friends are at. As for Houston, I am unaware of any evacuation plans. This is definitely a car city but there are still many people without vehicles. Not to mention the displaced survivors. I've only been through a handful of hurricanes and you never know what they will do. Even tropical storms can do a lot of damage. Allison in June of 2001 shut down the city. It caught everyone off guard. Surreal to be driving downtown and seeing water shooting 4 feet in the air out of manholes. It took nearly 8 months to drain underground carparks and building basements. The walking tunnel system downtown now has floodgates. I don't know how the medical center has changed. The whole place overlooks a bayou and bottom floors and basements with research were totaled.

The unusual aspect of Allison was that she was never a hurricane; rather, she was "just" a tropical storm. However, she lingered for such a long time and dumped so much rain onto the Houston metro area. Imagine what a very powerful Hurricane Rita can do.

One interesting note about Allison: it was the only name ever retired for a tropical storm. All other retired names belonged to hurricanes.

Soon-to-be Hurricane Rita's path is possibly headed for Surfside Beach, Texas, (south/southwest of Houston) with a landfall of Saturday morning. The problem with Houston is that when it drizzles there, flooding is possible. This could turn into a major problem for Houston if the storm continues this predicted path.
If you live in Houston, BEWARE!
NOAA Link

[ September 19, 2005, 02:48 PM: Message edited by: bobby78751 ]

If it's going to hit Houston, the WORST would be on their south/southwest side, because that means Rita's most dangerous part, her northern right front quadrant, would be slamming into the city.

Checking in from the center of "the cone". A few weak squalls so far, but nothing significant so far. That should change soon though. eek!

All boarded up in South Miami-Dade. We think we are going to stay home for this one and not try to drive in it like we did in Katrina...Rob Marciano called to reserve his room in our house, and I told him he'd have to fight Jim Cantore in the nude for it!

What? No naked Mike Bettes? frown

Geez, all I do is give and give and give...
...and all you do is take and take and take...