Pool of undefeated teams with a realistic chance:

Ohio State
Michigan
USC
Florida
West Virginia
Louisville


Pool of one loss teams that need the unbeatens to fall for thir name to resurface:

Tennessee
Notre Dame



Texas, Cal, and Auburn are done. You don't lose by 20 points to any team in the regular season and think you are still in the national championship hunt no matter what you do the rest of the way.



Scenerios:

Ohio State/Michigan Winner versus USC ( if the Trojans win out). It looks as if USC will most likely be the BCS #1 ranked team if the Trojans win off based on early projections from the BCS polls. The Ohio State/Michigan Winner should place #2 in the BCS standings even though OHIO State could be the #1 team by the AP, Harris, and Coaches Poll. However, most think the USC will stumble against Oregon, Cal, or Notre Dame.


If USC stumbles ( which is probable):

Michigan/Ohio State versus Florida. This is assuming the Gators win out. However, the chances of Florida winning @ Auburn, against UGA, Florida State, SEC championship game, and South Carolina could be tough.



If USC and FLorida stumble ( which is very probable):

Michigan/Ohio State winner versus West Virginia/Louisville winner.




Only if MAJOR upsets ( OSU, Michigan, WVU, and UL losing to teams they were suppose to beat) transpire would Tennessee and Notre Dame enter into the discussion.

Too early bro...too early. But it's nice you have a place to write down your fantasies.

Its even nicer my presence influences your fantasy.

Although a lot would have to go right for them, I don't think you can dismiss Cal and Texas completely, particularly Cal. The computer rankings used by the BCS don't take victory margin into account (unless they've changed things up again this year), and the pollsters are unpredictable. Cal could conceivably get a big bounce if they kill USC.

I also think a 1-loss SEC or Big 10 team would probably squeeze past an undefeated Louisville or West Virginia. I will feel more sympathy for Louisville if that happens, since they obviously tried to schedule marquee out-of-conference opponents, but the reality is there's not much difference between Miami/Kansas State and Maryland/East Carolina this year. Of course, there's a long way to go still, and it wouldn't shock me if everybody in the SEC loses at least two games.

I'm pulling for Ohio State and Michigan to both be undefeated when they play the big game this year. I'm from Michigan originally, and still pull for the Wolverines. I'm also hoping by the time the big games comes around, they're ranked #1 and #2. It would be the best that could happen for those of us who follow UM. Keeping my fingers crossed

That might be tough just because I think USC's first loss will come that same weekend against Cal which means they should be #2 up until then, but you never know. Regardless that Saturday (Nov 17th) is shaping up to be a great day for college football.

Cal is done.

The Bears ( even at 11-1) by virtue of their blow out loss in Knoxville won't make the National Championship game over a one loss Tennessee or Notre Dame ( assuming the Irish beat USC).

While Cal has done well since UT, what have they done that is exactly woth chest thumping about? Oregon was a good win, but who is to say the Ducks were that good? Oregon beat Oklahoma on a controversal call, BUT as we saw Texas completely outclassed Oklahoma. We all know how Texas fared against #1 Ohio State.

My point? For instance, WVU smoked Maryland 28-0 in the first quarter. WVU then got bored and cruised to a 45-24 game against the Terps. In case anyone didn't notice, Ga Tech ( probably the ACC's best team) should have lost to Maryland this past weekend in Atlanta.

Also, with the BCS projections already having WVU BARELY behind only 2 one loss teams ( Texas and Tennessee and JUST BARELY), that will change when WVU plays top 40 computer ranking teams in Louisville, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, and South Florida in the 2nd half of the season. If WVU wins against these teams, they will easiluy leap frong any one loss team. Their 1 st half schedule ranking was horrible. The e 2nd half is not that bad once conference play begins.

As I said above, an undefeated WVU or Louisville will not place ahead of an undefeated Florida, USC, or Michigan or Ohio State. However, no ONE loss team ( based on the Big East's outstanding OOC record and Pitt , Rutgers, and USF being good) will play for the NC ahead of WVU.


Also, take it to the bank. The only one loss team in the Big 10 will be a product of the loser of the Ohio State or Michigan game. The winner plays for the NC. There is no way these two teams would play again for the NC after they play for the big 10 championship.

Come on guys. Do some research.

LOL...you crack me up...

I would love to see the research you did to show that WVU played "bored" for 3 quarters of football. Was it the lawn chairs on the sidelines or was it when the Mountaineer put down his flintlock and started serving foo-foo drinks to the defensive line?

Clarification please (sorry, forgot to pay attention): The national champtionship game is still between BCS 1/2, right? It's not a playoff between any winners of other BCS bowl games, am I right? (I'm usually on the wrong side of the learning curve.)

As for the discussion, can we really rule out any team at this point? Today (2 months before the end of the season) it seems to be Ohio State against at least 10 other possible teams. And, what happens if Michigan beats Ohio St?

Exciting stuff.

If I may say so, I think a lot of y'all get caught in the reputation net and don't acknowledge how each team is doing week to week. Teams improve and teams implode. How many times in the past 5 years have Miami and FSU been rated in the top 10 in Sept and...well, we know what happened. How many times in the history of the BCS has the so-called #1 team won the "national championship?" Compare the preseaon polls with the final results. It's usually less than 50% accurate.

as a proud graduate of WVU, we start serving the foo foo drinks about 4 hours before kick off!

have you ever been drunk at 8:30 in the morning?

Who knows...but I know one thing...

T-Daddy: Over Labor Day in Russian River the bars opened at 6:00 AM. We'd get there around 7:00 drink until noon. Go back to hotel and nap until 4-5 get up and repeat until Midnight. The weekend seemed like a week...lol.



Derby: Corso likes dinosaurs?

I did some research. According to this site, West Virginia is behind three one loss teams in the BCS poll (Notre Dame, Tennessee, and Texas) and South Florida is not top 40 in the computer rankings, but #59. If we look at the rest of their schedules, the average computer poll ranking for the teams remaining for West Virginia is 47.0, Notre Dame 48.2, Texas 49.2, and Tennessee 40.0. So they're going to have trouble catching a Tennessee that keeps winning, especially as Tennessee could get an additional boost from the SEC championship game, depending on what Florida does.

But that's counting your chickens long before they've hatched--your whole thesis assumes no major upsets occur for the rest of the year. In fact, I really doubt Tennessee will win the rest of its games. The 1-loss team from the SEC to watch out for is Florida. Michigan could easily lose to Iowa or Penn State before the Ohio St game--as many as three one loss teams could emerge from the Big 10. Missouri could emerge undefeated still; and a win over Texas in the Big 12 championship might gain them enough ground to catch the Big East winner. A one-loss Ohio St could be tough to beat because of the win over Texas, if Texas wins out. A tight loss to Michigan at the end of the season won't drop them that far in the human polls. And you know the Big East's out of conference schedule isn't over. Rutgers could easily lose its road game to Navy, which would likely hurt West Virginia's schedule strength.

Similarly, for Cal, as I said a lot of things would have to go right. No one-loss Tennessee and USC (or UCLA) beating Notre Dame is just the tip of the iceberg. They probably would need Michigan and all the SEC teams to lose two games. The biggest problem is that two losses for Michigan probably means an undefeated Ohio St, and Cal wouldn't be likely to get a nod past an undefeated Big East team. They also need a big upset of Louisville or West Virginia somewhere along the line. It would help if Nebraska could win the Big 12 north, and Oklahoma beats Missouri. Weird things happen in college football--remember the year UCLA and Kansas St both lost unexpectedly at the end of the season to inferior teams. Teams that have been blown out during the season have played in the championship game before (Texas). Teams that have met during the season (Florida/Florida St) have played in the championship game before.

Texas has a tougher road to hoe because they don't have a team ranked as high as USC left on their schedule. But if Missouri makes it through to the Big 12 championship game undefeated (I'd kind of expect to lose to Oklahoma but weirder things have happened).that will help them. But they have the advantage of being a big name program, which helps with the human polls.

According to most analysts, an undefeated Florida will probably move to number one... why? Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Georgia, and FSU. Eventhough, this past week hurt, Auburn, GA, and FSU losing... it is still one of (if not the) toughest schedules in football... not to mention the fact that we will have another tough team during the SEC Championship game... either a second win over Auburn, LSU, Alabama, or a win over another ranked team - Arkansas.

Meet you in Arizona!!!

What you aren't calculating is human polls will place WVU or Louisville @ #2 ahead of one loss teams. This will give both teams a bump to put them over the loss of computer rankings to even things out. It will be very close.

Also, as you are probably aware of, the SEC championship game doesn't count toward a computer ranking if the winner has already beaten the team in the regular season. However, a loss does indeed count.

That's hilarious wvderby! About as bad as the finger being flipped on the big screen in the Cotton Bowl this past weekend.

BCS poll comes out tomorrow

prediction

OSU
USC
Michigan
WVU

ESPN is saying Texas at #5

I would be shocked if WVU received a #4 ranking in the first 2006 BCS poll. According to the link JC provided, WVU strength of schedule (SOS) is #105. Even though the human polls don't use SOS and Quality Wins in their polls (but we all know they do), the BCS poll does. And that #105 SOS ranking in conjunction with WVU's lack of Quality Wins will hurt them badly. According to the link JC provided, WVU's overall BCS ranking on 10/12/06 was #9. The only top ten team to lose Saturday (10/14/06) was #3 Florida. With Florida's loss to Auburn (an expected result; SEC team always seem to beat each other), WVU could move to #8 in the BCS poll. Of course as you guys pointed out, either Michigan or Ohio State will definitely have one loss since they play each other late in the season. Same for USC and Notre Dame. This could conceiveably elevate WVU to #6. And if WVU beats Louisville (Louisville could easily win that game), it could then conceivably move them to #5 or #4, depending on how the math plays out. Maybe WVU is an elite team, I don't know; they just don't play enough quality teams to judge), but it will be tough for them to garner a #1 or #2 ranking as long as the computer guys and Quality wins are factored into the BCS equation.

All indications are that WVU's initial BCS ranking will be somewhere between 7 and 10. The SOS is killing them, but it should improve as long as L'ville, Rutgers and Pitt (who could sneak into the Top 25 this week), keep winning.

The projections going to Saturday had WVU at 9, but those were without one of the computer rankings (Wolfe).

5. Louisville .719
6. Notre Dame .703
7. Tennessee .696
8. Texas .694
9. West Virginia .692

If they get decent #'s from Wolfe, I see no reason why they couldn't leapfrog 3 teams, and depending on how Florida is penalized maybe at least be within shouting distance of them. Auburn could be a foil, depending on how they are rewarded. If they get back to the 6-7 range amongst the voters, they could close their gap with WVU. As it stands I think Auburn/WVU/Florida/Louisville could be bunched together when the initial BCS comes out.

And don't forget that the new BCS rankings have less emphasis on SOS and more on human polls now (USA Today and Harris)

The first set of rankings are out

1 Ohio State Buckeyes 7-0 1.008 1.016 .920 .973 4
2 USC Trojans 6-0 .939 .952 1.000 .956 1
3 Michigan Wolverines 7-0 .943 .923 .960 .934 20
4 Auburn Tigers 6-1 .727 .724 .810 .748 9
5 West Virginia Mountaineers 6-0 .886 .910 .460 .745 11
6 Florida Gators 6-1 .685 .674 .870 .738 17
7 Louisville Cardinals 6-0 .775 .777 .620 .718 19
8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 5-1 .680 .689 .730 .694 6
9 Texas Longhorns 6-1 .835 .848 .390 .684 2
10 California Golden Bears 6-1 .627 .633 .760 .668 NR
11 Tennessee Volunteers 5-1 .711 .684 .580 .653 NR
12 Clemson Tigers 6-1 .569 .578 .380 .504 NR
13 Arkansas Razorbacks 5-1 .370 .343 .710 .471 NR
14 Oregon Ducks 5-1 .402 .426 .530 .449 5
15 Boise State Broncos 6-0 .333 .371 .600 .432 NR
16 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 6-0 .264 .268 .660 .395 NR
17 Nebraska Cornhuskers 6-1 .385 .385 .310 .354 NR
18 LSU Tigers 5-2 .439 .440 .180 .350 12
19 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 5-1 .456 .454 .120 .340 24
20 Boston College Eagles 5-1 .214 .207 .360 .259 21
21 Wisconsin Badgers 6-1 .201 .186 .380 .254 18
22 Oklahoma Sooners 4-2 .232 .228 .020 .158 23
23 Iowa Hawkeyes 5-2 .103 .111 .000 .070 NR
24 Missouri Tigers 6-1 .078 .057 .070 .068 NR
25 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 5-1 .002 .000 .190 .064 NR

I'm surprised Auburn leapfrogged WVU and Florida into 4th, but they're all tightly bunched all .011 apart, but WVU's low computer rankings right now may be a help for them as they have more room to move up there than Auburn or Florida do in the polls.

The funny thing about he BCS poll is this. If WVU beats Louisville, I think they are a lock for the BCS Championship game. Either OSU or Michigan will fall below WVU once they play each other. And with that conservative style Pete Carroll and John David Booty are using this year, I don't see any way USC can beat the last four teams on their schedule (especially, Notre Dame, Cal, and Oregon). So I think USC will fall behind WVU in the BCS poll if they slip up late in the season (I think they will lose to one of the teams mentioned above). And you can forget about Auburn. They will probably have to play Florida in the SEC Championship, and, I don' think they can beat Florida a second time. Unless Auburn wins out and wins the SEC title game, they have no shot. And trust me, Florida would love nothing better than preventing Auburn from a chance at a BCS Championship. So, the BCS #1-#2 matchup is looking more and more like an Ohio State or Michigan verses WVU (assuming they can beat Louisville) or Florida (if WVU loses to Louisville and Florida can win out, and, beat Auburn in the SEC title game). I think Louisville's out, even if they beat WVU. That's a shame, because I think they are a better team than WVU. But since they play each other, we'll know which team is better soon enough.

OMG, looks like the WV twins are going to get their wish this year. Looks like you called it right Thomas. Good early analysis. After USC's exit from the top this week and the season-ending matchup between OSU and Michigan which will knock one out of the race for the Championship (unless there's some bizarre BCS quirk I don't know about), WV is probably going to end up in the Championship game.

Let the WV trash talk begin (er, I mean continue). Good luck guys. It'll be a great game. (Do you think I jinxed them enough to choke in Louisville?)

love you bear

#@$%@#%^$%^

LOL

Ohio State - West Virginia sounds like a great matchup. But then there are still a lot of games to be played. Besides Louisville, Rutgers is a very good team, and Cinci is playing great defense lately.

There is a reason why I've been confident ( and Derby to some degree for the same reasoning) and haven
't backed off from the assertion WVU had an outstanding chance to win the National Championship this season.

I did back off from placing WVU #1 because Ohio State IMO has clearly been the best team against the best competition to date. With that being said, WVU has beaten all teams soundly to flat out destorying them. In most games, WVU jsut ran through the motions. Also, As I said earlier int he year, Maryland is a good to very good team ( WVU slaughtered the Terps) as it will show as the season plays out. That is playing out as Maryland controls its own destiny in the ACC with a 3-1 ACC record ( 6-2 overall). That is evidence enough that WVU is pretty damn good and has an opportunity to illustrate its the best team in the country if it wins out.


College football was rather easy to figure out this year. You didn't need a GPS navigation system, mapquest, or even ESPN gameday to spoon feed you how it would play out.

Here is why I KNEW WVU would be in great shape and was chest thumping from day one:


Big 12

Oklahoma's suspension of their QB eliminated anyone from the Big 12 from contesting Texas for the crown. Nebraska isn't quite there ( as I have said all along and its shown). I knew Ohio State would be too much for Texas in the early season matchup.


What does this mean? Big 12 eliminated from BCS championship game.


ACC

Before the season, I projected ON THIS Board as you can review the archhives the ACC would have a DOWN year. I stated the Big East would be 5-3 or better in head to head matchups against the ACC. I was told that was foolish and if I was willing to wager that statement. Guess what? The Big East was 5-3 and established itself ( this year) clearly as a better conference. I knew NO ACC team was a top 15 type teams ( with notable exception of maybe Clemson who I had a wait and see approach). Clemson is highly talented, but like LSU has self destructed in a couple of games.


I knew no ACC team would be good enough to play for the championship this year.



Pac-10

This is where I thought WVU/Louisville needed some luck. I thought Cal would be the team of the Pac-10 and roll over Tennessee. With the defeat of Cal by UT, it has assisted WVU bigtime. Cal should beat USC later in the year. I assumed USC/CAL winner would have the inside track to play Ohio State for the National Championship. Luckily for WVU, Cal and USC have each lose a game before their matchup. Instead of playing for the national championship, they are playing for the Rose bowl.


Notre Dame: I thought the Irish would lose to USC in LA. I didn't expect ND to get rocked by Michigan( More on this in big 10) and eliminate the Irish this early.


Big 10

I assumed Ohio State would roll over all Big 10 opponents without any difficulty and earn a spot in the National Championship game. Michigan happened. The evolution of Michigan doest affect the National Championship picture other than deciding which Big 10 team advances. Its almost like a Semifinal game.

SEC

I only saw LSU as a legitimate National Championship caliber team from the SEC. IMO, LSU has the most overall talent of any SEC team. Like Clemson, the ball has bounced ( bad luck) every where but to them in criucial games ( AUburn and Florida). I did think LSU would stumble once at either Auburn, UT, FL, Alabama, or SEC championship game. I also thought they would be the ONLY SEC one loss team that is capable of jumping an undefeated UL or WVU on SOS ( a that time no one forecasted how tough/improved the BE would be from top to bottom in November).



Big East

I knew Louisville would smoke Miami ( hey Keywestclown, you around?). I was told I was off the rocker. With UL's dismantling of Miami, the Nov 2nd matchup of WVU gave WVU and the Big East a marquee game. This would propell the winner into playing for the National Championship game if all the dominoes fell into place. Not only did they fall into place, it couldn't have been scripted any better. BE Commisioner Mike Trangese is at BE headquarters laughing as Rutgers is now damn good. Pitt is vasly improved and Cincy and USF are no pushovers. Hell even Syracuse has fight in them. UCONN ( the Big East's worst team) won at a middle of the road Big 10 team Indiana 5-3 ( 4-3 in big 10). Trangese intentionall made the Big East schedule the top teams in Novemeber and the first week of Decemeber. This assist with CPU rankings and gives the BE the commading attention to showcase its games long after conferece races have been settled.


Call us WVU/Big East fans arrogant or whatever you want to. BUT you can't judge us for relishing the way our conference has came back swinging after most of college football was looking for any nail to place on the coffin. The irony is the BCS shows are discussing Rutgers, WVU,Louisville, and even the Pitt games as significant. With all due respect to everyone else, Nov. is the Big East's month to shine and it couldn't have happened to a better league at a better time.


btw, if any of you guys were Big East/WVU fans, you would be somewhat gloating at how all has come full circle.

Win or Lose for WVU, the Big East is the winner.

I'm trying not to gloat because this is only one season-after next season, when WVU repeats as national champion, then I'll gloat

Here's an interesting question. When I looked at the BCS standings I noticed that the BCS average difference between OSU and Michigan is only .0167 yet the average diffrence between Michigan and WVU is .1835. That's a pretty significant difference between the two. Is there a chance that if OSU beats Michigan by a slim margin on 11/18 that Michigan will still remain in the #2 slot in the BCS? I guess it's all going to come down to how the Harris Interactive and USA Today polls treat Michigan after such a loss. They only dropped USC to #9 after a tight loss to Oregan State. Would there be a chance that they would treat Michigan more kindly with a tight loss to the #1 team in the nation?

Just something to ponder and keep the WVU twins in anticipation.

Interesting Point Bear. Allow me the pleasure to debunk this since I am well versed on this issue. As many ordinarty college football fans have alluded to, the thought of a rematch between OSU and Michigan has been discussed because of the BCS point differential between #2 Michigan and #3 WVU. However, most BCS experts and college football's "informed" analysts have preached the same message - loser of Michigan/OSU is eliminated from the BCS championship game.

There are a couple issues to undestand regarding the BCS:

Human Polls ( Coaches and Harris Interactive) make for 2/3 of the BCS Rankings.

Records and SOS are the major components of the CPU rankings.


WVU's CPU ranking is the worst among the top 10 BCS teams @ #16. YET it still ranks as the #3 BCS team overall.


Consider this:

WVU plays the MOST DIFFICULT SCHEDULE of ANY of the remaining top 10 BCS teams. WVU plays #5 Louisville, #12 Rutgers, #26 Pittsburgh, #44 Cincy, and #56 USF.

WVU's CPU ranking of #16 will sky rocket into the top 3-4 by season's end and reflect the human polls with WVU playing the "meat" of its schedule to conclude the season.


Rest Assured, the loser of Michigan and Ohio State will fall anywhere to #3 or #4 as WVU moves ( assuming the beat Louisville and win out) to #2. With Human Polls counting as 2/3's o BCS, it will be neraly impossible for Michigan/Ohio State loser to to finish #2 in the BCS.

Consider this, the

Ohio State versus Michigan Game

and

Louisville versus WVU game


like the Final 4/National Semifinal.


Michigan
_______________



Ohio State
_______________


SEMIFINAL

West Virginia
_______________



Louisville
_______________







Any questions?

I doubt we on the west coast will be up that early. Will they be night games? [JOKE]

In any alleged or fantasized playoff in a slightly inebreated state west of Texas:

For 1/2: Ohio St vs West Virginia

For 3/4: Cal vs Michigan

For 5/6: Notre Dame v Texas or Florida or Tennessee

For 7/8: Boise St v Texas or Florida or Tennessee or maybe Auburn

Just my opinion,
Smooch,
R

if WVU wins, they'll pick up points on Michigan and I think that if we end up undefeated, we'll continue to pick up points where we'll be in a good shape to play the winner of OSU and Michigan in the NC game

I would seriously doubt that the BCS would want a OSU/Michigan rematch especially with two undefeated teams out there

Well, Rutgers just gave us a nice demonstration of why you can't start projecting the championship game in October. So--will an unbeaten Rutgers get in? Beating Louisville & W Va wouldl probably float high enough in the computer rankings to make the spot if they get pushed to #2 in the human polls. I'm very interested to see if the pollsters move them past all the one loss teams or not this weekend.

Wow--Democrats take the House and Senate and Rutgers figuring in the National Championship picture. Best November ever?

Why? One win does not a national championship team make. I mean, don't get me wrong. Incredible game on Thursday night. But to move from #15 to #3 just because you beat Louisville? Come on. Reality check here.

That being said, it does make for a much more interesting November. Too often the final game is set. This year November has all the drama of a good DH episode. If Rutgers does stay unbeaten until the 12/2 game against WVU and wins and FL wins the SEC championship it will be interesting to see who gets awarded the #2 slot against either OSU or Michigan.

This year football reminds me more of college basketball and the madness of March. I wonder what we can call November. For there not to be a playoff system in football this has all the drama of March Madness, or some of it at least.

Well, you're probably right but Louisville got to #3 simply for beating West Virginia, unless you still think Miami is a good team. Something that has always bothered me about the system is that whether or not you were hyped as a top team going into the season has such an impact on your rankings. Is the profile of
accomplishments of say, Texas and Wisconsin really as different as their rankings suggest?

I'm still curious to see where they're ranked if they beat West Virginia as well. Will people just decide none of the big east teams were really that good, like the ACC. West Virginia hammering Maryland early in the season is looking like the Big East's main out of conference win.

Oh, this should get the WV twins going. I'm not sure I'm completely on the Big East bandwagon yet. I do believe they are making a name for themselves in NCAA football. However, you can't dispute the history of Big 10, SEC or Big 12 (I had to throw the later in to at least show my bias allegiance). A team I think we all should be looking at over Rutgers is Arkansas (my other team - natural born Hawg here and proud of it). Their only loss this year has been to USC in an early match.

Now if the Big East teams would do what the SEC, Big 12 and Big 10 teams do and play some ranked teams in the early season I think they would get a little more respect. The main reason you see most of those one-loss teams up front is becasuse their loss was to a highly ranked team (Texas to OSU, Arkansas to USC).

If Arkansas beats Tenn. tonight I would expect them to vault a few notches in the poll, possibly to 7th or 8th. Boise State is the anamoly in my mind. I see Rutgers overtaking them in the poll (or at least they should). Out of all the dogs in the front pack they are the least deserving to be there.

Interesting you should bring up Arkansas, because I thought of mentioning their rank vs Auburn as another indicator of how the perceived prestige of the program impacts a team's ranking.

Actually, fewer and fewer teams play strong out-of-conference schedules, it seems. The SEC's only really significant out of conterence win is Tennessee over Cal. Take a good hard look at the out-of-conference opponents of Auburn, Florida and LSU. They're not impressive. Is out-of-conference schedule used as a tiebreak in the SEC? It would be pretty unfair if Arkansas loses out in a tiebreak to LSU or Auburn on that basis.

Well we can officially eliminate Auburn from the national title hunt now. I wouldn't be surprised to see Auburn drop at least 10 spots in the polls this week.

Rutgers is up to #6 in the BCS standings and #3 with the computers, so they are in play here. If they can squeeze by West Virginia, they need to move past three one-loss teams (the loser of Ohio St/Michigan, the winner of USC/Notre Dame and Florida). It's not hard to see a scenario where USC, Notre Dame, Florida and Arkansas all have two losses, which would make it easy for an undefeated Rutgers to make it in.

I'm beginning to think Ohio St and Michigan are a level above everybody else and that there's not much difference between the next 10-15 teams.

" I'm beginning to think Ohio St and Michigan are a level above everybody else and that there's not much difference between the next 10-15 teams.
[/quote]


Ohio State is clearly on a different level IMO than other teams in college football. I don't see that as the case with Michigan. Michigan's struggle with Northwestern and Ball State shredding the Michigan Defense for 26 points and 400 plus yards of offense makes the Wolverines closer to the WVU's, ND, Florida, Rutgers, and USC more than it does with OSU at this point.

" I'm beginning to think Ohio St and Michigan are a level above everybody else and that there's not much difference between the next 10-15 teams.
[/quote]


Ohio State is clearly on a different level IMO than other teams in college football. I don't see that as the case with Michigan. Michigan's struggle with Northwestern and Ball State shredding the Michigan Defense for 26 points and 400 plus yards of offense makes the Wolverines closer to the WVU's, ND, Florida, Rutgers, and USC more than it does with OSU at this point.

Damn Rutgers! Now OSU won't get a Big East creampuff to play for the BCS title. Now the Buckeyes are gonna have to play a good team to win it.

Regardless of RU losing to Cincy, do you honestly think RU would have won in Morgantown on Dec. 2nd? With that being said, RU was the feel good story of college football this year. Schiano has the Knights on the up and up as he's building a winner in Pisctaway.

Witht that being said, along with Michigan and USC, I think WVU's one of the few teams in college football capable of beating OSU. We will never know. All the more reason for a 16 team playoff.

Well the BCS results will be interesting. The AP kept Michigan in 2nd with SC 3rd. The Coaches poll has those two reversed. Both have Florida 4, Arkansas 5 and Irish 6. Two huge games left - SC - Notre Dame and Florida - Arkansas. If ND beats SC - do they move past the Arkansas - Florida winner. If SC does not win out - can any of Florida, Arkansas on ND pass Michigan? I'm assuming if SC beats both the Irish and UCLA they jump to second everywhere.

Personally - even though Michigan may very well be the 2nd best team - I prefer somebody else get a shot at Ohio State in the Championship game. Michigan had their chance - and lost.

That's my feeling as well. I think Michigan probably is the 2nd best team in the country, but it's not fair to make Ohio State beat them twice. I'd rather see the ND/USC winner or the Fla/Ark winner get a shot. Or maybe Arizona!

Ohio State-Michigan Part II would be a disappointment for a national championship game if you ask me. I don't think there's any way you can pick Michigan over USC if the Trojans win their final two.

If USC finishes 11-1, how can you say no to a team that will have defeated Notre Dame, Arkansas, Nebraska, California, Oregon, UCLA, Arizona and Arizona State among others? That is an unbelievable schedule, and USC would have beaten as many as NINE potentially bowl-bound teams. That's by far the most of any team in the country.

Contrast that with a team like Arkansas, which not only lost 50-14 on its home field to USC, but has only beaten 3 teams with winning records.

I would love to see a USC-Ohio State final because it would match the best team of this year against the best team of the last 5 years. That would be more exciting to me than a rematch of OSU-Michigan. Also, the aftermath of an OSU-Michigan final would have most people unhappy... if OSU wins again, people would say that someone other than Michigan should've been in the championship... and if Michigan were to win, people would've said it really didn't decide anything since Ohio State won the regular-season game.

The BCS doesn't "want" anything. The BCS is a mathematical process that takes polls and factors into account to determine the #1 and #2. Looks like the BCS "wants" a rematch.

That being said, a USC defeat of Notre Dame would probably push USC into the #2 slot ahead of Michigan. Now if USC loses it will be interesting to see how the winner of the Florida - Arkanasas game fair against Michigan in the final BCS standings. Michigan doesn't have any more games to help hold their position.

I have a feeling Florida or Arkansas might have trouble getting past Michigan, because their computer rankings are only 5 and 7 respectively. Maybe if a blowout win got them to a solid #2 on the polls, but the sports writers seem to be viewing an Ohio St/Michigan rematch fairly positively from what I've seen on the net today. Notre Dame probably can't get past Michigan because of what happened when they played each other.

Next weekend will tell a lot. USC plays ND, both in the top 5 so that's got to help the winner against Michigan as it will affect the Computer Rankings. Michigan lost actual points in several of the Computer Rankings after the loss. If USC beats ND then they will advance even more against Michigan, which can do nothing but just sit back and watch the rest of the season progress. They can do nothing to improve their position since their schedule is done.

If Arkansas beats LSU, another top 10 team (barely), that will help advance Arkansas against ND (or whoever is in their slot after the USC-ND game). I don't think Arkansas can get past Michigan but it will definitely shake up the system. When Arkansas plays FL (if they beat LSU) the winner of that game will pick up even more points in the computer rankings and probably the polls.

If USC loses to ND and Arkansas finishes the season winning, I think ND will probably end up in the title game (barely). It will be a tight spread of points between Arkansas, Michigan, and ND, leaving us all shaking our heads and wondering how this thing could ever get sorted out other than using a playoff system.

I don't know, why don't we ask South Florida?