So, given that Venus has stated that she would like to be top 15 by Roland Garros, she really isn't doing too much to get there. This week she plays Amelia Island and the top seed there is Petrova. Does Venus have what it takes to win this title again or is she really starting to fade into top 20 or 30 player? It will be a lot tougher for her in Charleston next week (if she doesn't get bounced early this week and withdraw for next) when the heavier hitters arrive at the same tourney.

What Venus showed to me this week is that Serena was either being way too objective or BSing about Venus being the best player in the Miami draw. Her serve is clearly still too much of a liabilty, and when its off it affects the rest of her game. The fact that Serena blew away Sharapova and Venus couldn't shows just how far the two are from each other. The difference was the serve. In the first set Venus had it and then she struggled. To see how easily Serena dispatched of Sharapova must have been quite a blow because that was Venus' match for the taking. But, can't do that when you are hitting 10+ double faults, first serve % is crap, and you are spraying the ball like hell. However, both Venus and Maria play like hell when its windy, and I was at that dreadful match. The wind was very much a factor in that match. They have little margin for error. Sharapova's wind up means that in the wind she really has to time the ball well. Venus' flat hitting means that she needs to aim closer to inside the court rather than the lines and come to net more.

However, as Wimbledon 2005 reminded us, Venus is very up and down and is someone you can't count out. She can find her serve sometimes and other days its not gonna be there. She can get away with it most days against players outside the top 15 but the rest are gonna eat it up and either beat her often or give her a tough, close match she narrowly wins. At this point with the depth in the WTA its not gonna move her up as quickly as she'd like. However, she's still one of the best movers in the tour and hits with heavy power as well. My hope is that she'll at least be seeded by Roland Garros. That shouldn't be too hard so long as she stays injury free. She doesn't have much to defend this year and hopefully she will be inspired by Serena's comeback.

Venus is just one of the many, many players on tour right now that can beat anyone on any given day and lose to anyone on any given day. I would put her in the same category as most of the Russians, Snyder, Hingis, Clijsters, most of the Eastern Europeans, etc.

Serena seems to be in a league of her own now, but time will tell is she plays enough to storm back up to the top. I would put Justine very close to her, although momentuem is definetely with Serena at this point. Sharapova and Mauresmo are close behind. But most everyone else can win/lose to anyone...even much lower ranked players.

Venus jumped from 39 to 32 today in the rankings, so barring another injury she should definitely be seeded at the French Open. She's in a part of the rankings that one good week could see another big jump up. She could be inside the top 28 by next week. She and Serena have the luxury of any points are new points so up the ranks they should climb if they just play.

I really like Venus when she is playing well. We think of her as such a power player, but i don't think she really hits all out that often anymore. I don't know if that helps or hurts her, but it does seem like she tries to take some pace off more often.

I would love to see her repeat the 2005 shocker on grass.

Shep...thats a great analysis of where Venus stands right now in tennis. She's enough of a threat to take out anyone on any given day, however her inconsistency makes it so that just about anyone can take her out on any given day.

The Amelia Island draw is pretty weak. I actually think Venus has a good shot at the title, which would be a much-needed confidence boost.

Amelia Island better get used to having a weak draw. With the changes to the WTA that are coming by making Indian Wells mandatory in a couple of years, do you really think players are going to want to play 5 weeks in a row? Many had already preferred to just skip Indian Wells in favor of Miami in recent years anyway. So the new mandatory rules are going to hurt the smaller Amelia Island tournament in terms of a weak draw probably each year once the new "streamlined" WTA schedule goes into effect

One of the big differences between Venus and Serena is spin. Serena gets much more control on her serve and any other shot because she uses more topspin and slice. That added control was one of the reasons Serena could make a comeback agaisnt repeat adversity like the one at the Australian.

Also, let's face it, Venus is not mentally as strong as Serena, or more precisely her mentality sometimes seems to be operating deep someplace else -- not the court. The Sharapova match was a good example of that. She just really seemed to leave altogether for periods of time. When Serena was in Serena slam mode, I had trouble watching Venus play her in particular because you could pretty much tell by the dejected look on Venus's face when she was going to lose.

The look was absent at Wimbledon in 2005. When Venus is on there's really noone like her, even her sister. But she's so much more hit or miss because of her flat hitting and more open stance, especially on the forehand side.

Venus is my favorite player, but I've given up expecting her to be in full flight with regularity. In that sense I think she's like a select number of the current players (my other fave Safarova especially, maybe Vaidisova, though she always chokes in the late stages) because most of the top players can't touch her on a great day. Safarova straight-setted three top 10s in a row two months ago. I can't see Schnyder or even many of the current top 10 do that. That was the kind of Wimbledon Venus had in 05, up until the epic final against Davenport. Before then, she just plowed through the field in a fashion that made it clear she was on fire.

I have a feeling that Venus will be a force again at Wimbledon. Serena's success always seems to inspire her. Anyone betting on an all-Williams 2007 Wimbledon final? (If they end up in opposite sides of the draw)

Not too many players have Serena's tenacity and toughness, but the year that Venus beat Sharapova and Davenport at Wimbledon, she exhibited some serious mental grit.

To me, the biggest difference between the sisters is not just spin, it's technique. Serena's serve and forehand are closer to text book and less likely to go awry if she's feeling a little off her game. It's like Richard and Oracene learned from their mistakes with Venus and corrected them with Serena.

What Venus does do better than Serena though is volley. I hope we see her at the net for most of the rest of 2007....even on clay.

Some of Serena's attempted volleys in the final were horrendous!! Shockingly so...girl was off. But, of course, she pulled it together just when Justine was fraying, and falling...

As many of us have said before, Venus at the net is a work of art and her volley one of the best single shots in WTA history. Get her on grass!!

who?

Venus has a potentially very difficult second round match against Patty Schnyder in the 2nd round. Patty's been pretty quiet lately, but she can be quite dangerous on clay.

Patty's good on clay. Venus is better. In fact her two biggest wins of last season came on clay against Patty Schnyder (at Rome and at the French). It's funny, but I feel like Venus has developed into a a great claycourt player in the latter stages of her career. Her record on that surface seems much better than on hardcourt since 2004. As a recap: in 2004 her only two wins were on clay (Charleston and Warsaw). In 2005 it was her win in Istanbul that gave her the confidence to take the Wimbledon title. It would be interesting to see how her clay court record compares to other contemporaries. I have a feeling maybe only Mauresmo and Henin have better winning percentages on the dirt, but I could be wrong. Serena, by comparison, has only ever won two clay court tournaments, when she broke out in 2002 and won the French.

Finally, last year, Venus, herself says that it was the clay court season that saved her:

Williams also is feeling confident because Amelia Island is played on clay, where she excels.

"I'm coming into form at the right time, what with it being clay-court season," she said. "Clay kept me in the top 50 last year [she finished 48th]."

Patty doesn't sound too confident coming into this match:

No wonder Schnyder, who had a first-round bye, openly dreaded the prospect of starting this year's tournament with this particular Williams sister.

"You don't want to have her, definitely not in your first [match]," Schnyder said. "That's really rough. I just want to be happy with my game, and if it's good enough to beat Venus, great. I have no idea how to beat her, otherwise I would maybe have achieved it earlier in my career."

That said, if Patty is ever going to beat Venus, this is her best surface to do it.

Well, Venus got past her in three sets--again. You're right that Venus is third among active players
in winning percentage on clay, but not behind MoMo. I crunched the numbers for the top 20+Venus--listed in order of clay court career winning percentage, bracketed number gives winning percentage on other surfaces.

Justine is obviously in a class by herself. Some interesting names toward the top--Shahar Peer and Dinara Safina I can understand but Na Li???? Maybe just a glitch from a small sample size. And I can't figure out why Chakvetadze and Golovin have done so poorly.

Justine Henin .863 (.786)
Martina Hingis .821 (.807)
Venus Williams .800 (.808)
Serena Williams .773 (.851)
Kim Clijsters .770 (.808)
Na Li .760 (.664)
Shahar Peer .742 (.654)
Amelie Mauresmo .739 (.736)
Maria Sharapova .735 (.808)
Dinara Safina .726 (.611)
Svetlana Kuznetsova .725 (.697)
Nicole Vaidisova .714 (.750)
Vera Zvonareva .708 (.610)
Nadia Petrova .691 (.636)
Elena Dementieva .643 (.642)
Patty Schnyder .628 (.578)
Ana Ivanovic .619 (.692)
Jelena Jankovic .600 (.603)
Daniela Hantuchova .565 (.614)
Anna Chakvetadze .552 (.677)
Tatiana Golovin .520 (.632)

Oh how i love when one of us brings percentages/stats like those...how about all time on clay, how about those big winners like Evert Graf and Seles?

Patty's never beaten Venus, yes? Obviously she went into the match with little belief but good for her for at least pushing Venus to three...

Petrova vs Venus would be a great match to check out...

I was looking ahead to a Petrova vs Venus final, but I just remembered how well Jankovic plays against the Williams sisters. Assuming Jelena survives Ivanovic, which is not completely certain, I wonder if Venus will be able to exact some revenge against Jankovic or if Jelena will up her game again. Could make for some good on court glares, though that is more Serena's thing.

Only since you brought it up -- .958!

Lets see someone rip through 125 straight wins on the stuff and then start talking about someone who is a good clay court player!! Or better yet, have only one loss on the surface in the course of 8 years. She was 197-1 on clay from August 1973 to June 1981. Tracy Austin beat her in a 3rd set breaker in Rome in 1979.

Well, now Venus has to get through Tati in the quarters to even face JJ. I'm thinking she can do it, because Golovin hasn't been having great results this year so far. Still, they only played once before, and Golovin won...on clay! Maybe Venus will be looking for revenge. Of course if she's getting outaced and broken 3 times by Meilin Tu, my confidence in her serve is not high.

Wow....thanks for those stats JC. Since you originally posted about ACTIVE players and not all time, it was interesting to see that Venus is third among ACTIVE players! If Chris Evert were active I guess that would mean something among today's players. Incredible record that will probably never be broken nonetheless, but different generation, different stats.

The numbers for the alltime greats

Chris Evert .946* ((.863)

Monica Seles .851 (.824)

Steffi Graf .850 (.886)

Martina Navratilova .815 (.877)

* I got my stats from tenniscorner, which doesn't include some tournaments from the 70's (possibly ITF events?).

I was shocked that Justine's career record on clay was actually better than Seles and Graf. That's really very impressive, even taking into consideration that her final numbers will probably be lower unless she retires prematurely like Clijsters. It's hard to imagine anyone ever approaching Evert's numbers again.

Upsets today on Amelia Island ... Venus lost to Golovin and Jankovic lost to Ivanovic!

Just goes to show you that you cant trust stats....even clay-court stats....well, on the women's side anyway.

Go Tati Go!!!! She needed a nice win like this.

doh... nevermind about that interesting match up between Jelena and Venus. But it will be a very pretty seminfinal between Ivanovic and Golovin.

Hantuchova is presently routing Sybille Bammer. Wait, Sybille fought off points that would have put her two breaks down. She's just down one break to Daniela. This match might be close afterall. I'll be glad for either winner here, really.

The last quarterfinal should also be fiesty. Petrova and Safina have played some close matches including last week in Miami. Would be great to see Dinara finally get a win over Nadia, although Nadia has championship points to defend here AND she's on my fantasy team.

******
Updated: Bammer beats Hantuchova in three. Can Dinara make it 4 upsets?

Watched some of the Golovin/Venus match... have to say that Tatiana was very impressive, definitely one of the best performances I've seen from her. I think I'd subconsciously written her off in terms of having top 10 potential... although seeing the match and remembering how young she still is... I think she definitely has a shot at it.

The clay stats are interesting... Maria has to be credited for winning so many matches while looking so horrible on the surface... thought her record would be a bit worse. Li's stats are (I suspect) skewed because she played way longer on the ITF events before moving up than other top players... take a look at how many ITF titles she has (19 singles, 16 doubles) compared to other top girls. Her career pattern is really odd... she won a ton at ITF level at 17-18ish, mostly vanished for three years (no play at all in 2003) then returned in 2004, and ended up 51-4 in singles that year... (won tier 3 Guangzhou, played the rest on the ITF circuit) - definitely a strange career progression overall.

Not toooo surprised that Chakvetadze's stats aren't better on clay... fast players who can't/don't play the heavy hitting game can and do struggle on a slow surface... slower opponents are less easily foxed/thrown out of position, and it is tough to get the ball past them without a bit of brute force.

B

As far as stats go, I think Chrissie has some of the most awe inspiring ones, bar none - men or women. Her clay court record, her winning a grand slam a year for so many years, and on and on...that kind of consistency and endurance is truly remarkable. No one's ever had that level of greatness year in year out...

The loss to Golovin was just another example of Venus's incredibly erratic play. That loss looked a lot like some of her pathetic losses over the past few years by opponents she should beat.

The key to defeating Venus no matter what your ranking is the following: Just get the ball back in play from the baseline. Be consistent, but pace and depth are not necessary. Keep the point going as long as possible.

It seems as if the errors start to flow and Venus has no control over stopping them.

What happened to the Venus that overpowered Peer in Memphis? Where is the Venus who won Wimbledon in 2005?

Venus is either "on" or she is "off." There is no in between.

Venus Williams is the most inconsistent player that I have ever seen.

Venus is the Anti-Chris!

Hey B Boy,

I wiki'd Li Na once. One explanation for her strange career progression is due to the fact that she burned out on the tour maybe 2000 or 2001 (or maybe 2003 as you noted) and took a year and a half off to go back to college. She wasn't sure if she wanted to keep playing at that point. She's a fascinating person given that she is treated like this tennis machine by the Chinese tennis establishment. I can see why she would rebel against the factory-like conditions she's made to work under. She has obvious talent and I wonder if she grew up in America or Russia with better coaching, would she have achieved greater success at an earlier age and be in the running for slams at this point in her career.

It seems as though when you get Venus into long rallies, she gets bored. Then she decides to try to hit some insane winner that, more often than not, goes long or wide. And at least in the Golovin match, it didn't seem as though she was trying to construct any points. It was as though she couldn't come to grips with the fact that the shots she was hitting weren't winners like they would have been on a hard court. Kinda disappointing but at least she's playing. No?

The other thing to keep in mind is how well Venus's opponent is playing. Currently Golovin is routing Nadia Petrova, which makes Venus's loss not so bad in hindsight.

Golovin is now 5-1 vs Petrova. I wonder what it is about her that gives Nadia so much trouble.