Glad to hear that Obama is doing well in your latest polls. Fortunately the same trend appears to be happening here. Traditionally we are a centre left country - but for the last two years we've had a conservative government - fortunately in a minority parliament situation - so they could not too much neo-con damage. At disolution our last Parliament the Conservatives had 127 seats, the Liberals 95, the Bloc Quebecois 48, the NDP 30, 4 Independents and 4 seats were vacant.

Unfortunately at the start of our campaign (just 4 weeks ago - not 4 years like yours) - the Conservative Party seemed poised to garner enough support for a majority - which was a scary thought. The Liberals have Stephan Dion as their leader and he struggles a bit in English and comes across as a professorial kind of guy with no charisma. And the Conservatives with a very dishonest and disgusting smear campaign had many traditional soft Liberal supporters moving to them as they completely misrepresented Dion's Carbon tax plan and more or less scared people who believed the ads that Dion's plans were reckless and result in raised taxes for everybody.

Instead Dion's plans are in fact very bold and progresssive and will see Canadians getting huge income tax reductions to offset the new Carbon taxes being introduced - which must be introduced if we are at all serious about saving the planet and fighting global warming.

Unfortunately the Conservatives are the only party on the right and the left centre vote is getting split between the Liberals, the NDP and the Greens across English Canada and add the Bloc Quebecois to that list in Quebec ridings only. With the perceived weakness of Dion as the Liberal leader it looked like the left vote was going to be split between the four parties in such a way that the Conservatives appeared to be headed for a potential majority. For example it was thought that the Conservatives were on their way to significant seat gains in Ontario and Quebec by winning ridings with just 35% of the votes in that riding because the 65% who favoured left leaning parties would split the vote in such a way that none of their candidates would get the 35% or so the Conservatives were likely to get. Polls from a couple of weeks ago were pointing towards a situation where it looked like there would be a number of ridings where the Conservatives would garner about 35% support with the NDP and Liberals both stuck in the 20 - 25% range and the Greens at 10% - 12%. That had conservative majority written all over it.

But that seemed to wake Canadians up and we paid attention to the debates where Dion performed surprisingly well with most experts and polls saying he won the French debate and performed better than most thought he would in the English language debate. And that seemed to have helped his confidence because suddenly his performance on the campaign trail has improved.

The Conservatives were also hurt by a plagiarism scandal that was brought to light by the Liberals. They showed videos of Australian PM John Howard's address to the Aussie Parliament urging support for Australian involvement in Bush's war in Iraq. On a split screen was a video of Stephen Harper - who at the time was not Canadian Prime Minister - but rather leader of the Opposition party in his speech to the Canadian Parliament indicating he thought Canada should be joining the Iraq war. The problem - Harper's speech - which happened two days after Howard's address in Canberra - matched word for word for large sections the Howard speech. Immediately a sacrificial lamb speechwriter was fired from Harper's campaign to minimize the damage. But the damage had been done - not so much because of the plagiarism - but because it reminded many Canadians that had Harper been Prime Minister then, instead of Liberal Chretien - we would have ended up participating in that debacle in Iraq.

To top it off - the Conservatives looked ready to go all the way through the campaign without actually releasing a platform. Just lie about Dion and show photogenic Harper in nice sweaters spouting platitudes. Well their drop in the polls has them finally - just 7 days before we vote releasing a panicked platform that even has them changing their tune about issues they were derisive about in campaign rallies two weeks ago - such as support for the culture and arts. So with all of that - combined with new doubts over the Conservative's handling of the economy with predictions now stating that we are heading for a recession - the polls have changed - and I feel MUCH better.

On September 27th one national poll had the Conservatives at 41%, Liberals and NDP tied at 21% and the Greens at 7%. On September 20th a Quebec only poll had the Bloc were at 30% range, Conservatives 26%, NDP 17% and Liberals 16%. In Ontario the Conservatives were up to 40% Liberals 30%, NDP and Greens both in the 14-15% range.

Well - the two daily tracking polls today present a much different picture. Nationally one of the polls has it as:
Conservatives down to 31%, Liberals up to 26%, NDP holding at 21% and Greens up to 13%. Another has the race even tighter between the Liberals and Conservatives with the conservatives at 34% trending downwards and the Liberals all the way up to 31%. The big swing in Ontario and Quebec with the Liberals now ahead of the Conservatives in Ontario at 34% - 26%, with the NDP and Greens up to 24% and 15% respectively. In Quebec the Bloc are at 33%, the Liberals from 16% are now up to 28% and the Conservatives have dropped from 26% to 19%.

So barring a reversal - at worst we appear to be in store for another Conservative minority and if the trends of the last week continue for the next week - we may even see the Liberals challenging the Conservatives for a minority government of their own. That would be one of the most remarkable turnarounds in Canadian history within a short 6 week campaign.

I'm so clueless, I have no idea who any of the candidates are in my riding. That said, I'm voting for the party, not for the person, in part because the party I would vote for doesn't have a chance in my area. Traditionally, I have voted NDP, but in the last election I voted Green. I think I will vote Green again this time, as I like Elizabeth May, the party leader.

If you looked at the Conservative Platform, you'd notice that most of the items listed in there had already been made public during the election campaign. Instead of putting it all out there, Stephen Harper unveiled policies almost every day or every second day during this campaign.

In fact the only really big surprise in the platform was the reversal on the TV/Film tax credit.

The Liberal Party would be forming the next Government if they had a competent leader (Michael Ignatief) and got rid of their disasterous Green Shift Plan that will do nothing but take away money from Alberta and Saskatchewan and move it East.

I would vote Conservative but unfortunately in my riding, the Conservative MP (the incumbent) is too far extremely right wing. So that left me little choice but to vote for the Green Party. (I won't support the Liberals with Dion and the Green Shift, and the NDP are a joke).

For the record, in the two elections I've voted in... I've voted Liberal and Conservative, and I guess now in my third Federal Election, you can add the Green Party.

I beg to differ Enigma. FYI - in past elections I have voted Liberal, NDP and PROGRESSIVE Conservative. And in this election our riding has Bob Rae running for the Liberals and he is getting my vote.

Never before in Canadian history (thankfully) has a party engaged in a multi-million dollar year long smear campaign filled with distortions and outright lies about the leader of one of the other parties - as the Conservatives have done this past year against Liberal leader Stephan Dion. Somehow approprate that they launched this low level American style smear campaign by launching commercials on CTV during coverage of the Super Bowl.

As Stephan Dion himself said in an interview yesterday he always felt that the campaign was so far over the top that he felt Canadians were too intelligent to fall for it - but he had to admit he was surprised how many did. But as he pointed out that perhaps the actual success of that Conservative campaign has now come home to hurt them - because they were so successful in creating such a negative impression of Dion - that now that Canadians have actually had a chance to hear him - they are finding him to be so much more impressive than the low expectations that had been largely created because of the distortions of the Conservative year long smear campaign. And as a result - now that they are finding him more impressive they are taking the time to listen to what he is actually saying - and apparently many are liking what they hear.

They tried to portray him as weak and indecisive - yet he is showing himself to be bold and decisive down the stretch of this campaign. He is the leader showing he 'gets it' when it comes to the pain Canadians are feeling because of the recession we are in. He also clearly 'gets' where the world is heading long term - which is why his Green shift plan to move Canada towards sustainable development is clearly a better policy according to most economists and almost all environmental scientists compared to the Conserevatives plans. For weeks we've been reading stories in the Liberal leaning newspaper The Toronto Star about how the Liberals were falling apart, behind the scene operators in the Liberal party were grumbling about how they were going to get killed in this election. Well today's front page is of a very confident and relaxed looking Stephan Dion taken during his appearance at Much Music yesterday (Canada's MTV) - under the banner headline 'Dion sitting pretty now'. And now in the last week the Liberal machine sensing the dramatic shift to the Liberals is ramping up - including editorial writers at the Star. I'll copy some links to recent editorials below.

His interviews yesterday in Toronto on the National with Peter Mansbridge and on Much Music showed a confident leader very much at ease with, and in command of the consistent message he has been putting forth ever since he ran for the Liberal leadership. His track record is that of an honest politician - not a smooth operator who you can't believe for a second - which is the way Harper has always come across to me. One with a back bone too. He stood up to the Quebec Nationalists of his home province in steering the Clarity Bill through Parliament. Even Elizabeth May the Green Party leader has said his leadership as chair of the Kyoto conference in Montreal 3 years ago was nothing short of brilliant as he almost single handedly held the conference together and got international agreement to keep Kyoto alive. That even after the Americans declared the conference over, Kyoto dead and went home. That takes backbone! And she has said she wants Stephan Dion to be the Prime Minister after this election!

And I would love to know who the Conservative candidate is in your riding. Atilla the Hun? I think he would have to be to be more right wing than the current leadership of the Conservatives. We lived through this neo-con lunacy with Mike Harris here in Ontario and saw the destructive mess he left in this province. Somehow managing to keep the province in deficit while our biggest customer the US, had an economy that was booming under Clinton. Ontario is in recession now largely because our biggest customer is hurting and the value of our dollar went up so much making our manufactured goods more expensive to our American marketplace. The opposite was true when Harris was in power yet his destructive policies left a few people very, very rich while at the same time seeing the numbers of homeless explode, hospitals close, schools become run down, the environment go down the toilet including deaths in Walkerton over tainted water because of the lack of oversight under neo-con policies when it came to the environment.

Never mind the fact that the current federal Conservative Party is dominated by a Reform Party mentality, socially and economically ultra conservative, with most Red Tories from the old PROGRESSIVE Conservative party no longer involved in the decision making of the incredibly tightly controlled Prime Minister's Office. This a party that has fought tooth and nail AGAINST any advancement of gay rights. So like Obama said in the debate against McCain the other night that he could not understand why the US ever went to war in Iraq - I have real difficulty as a gay man understanding how another gay person could vote for a party that does not consider me an equal to a straight person - and never has!

And as for your comment that you can't support Dion because in your opinion his Green shift plan is nothing but a plan to take money from Saskatchewan and Alberta and move it to the East - well - that would only be true if those two provinces act in a way that would make that true. If instead they progressively try to take advantage of the plan by developing new and cleaner ways to tap into the natural resources there and create technologies that the world so desperately needs in our battle against global warming - Alberta and Saskatchewan can become big winners as demand for their technologies would create a lasting legacy in those provinces. Our economy in Ontario has been dominated by building SUV's and Minivans - so like Alberta and Saskatchewan we have to make dramatic changes. We would be in so much better shape had the Liberals actually had the balls to introduce this Green Shift 10 years ago the way they have in Scandinavian countries.

And if you are not voting for the Liberals because of the Green shift - why vote for the Green party whose platform is actually Green Shift Plus for lack of a better term. Its plans are more aggressive that Dion's Green shift.

Oh well - off my soapbox. Now if only Stephan Dion had an answer for what is wrong with my Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

Who says American culture doesn't go over well overseas?



If he does solve that problem we're going to steal him and get him to work fixing Andy Reid's problems...and as long as Stephan's not related to Celine, he's okay with me.

I think I asked this once before, but why doesn't the NDP do better in federal elections? Do they govern any of the states? And have the Conservatives done better since they unified? Is there really only *one* right-wing party?

They are 100% out of touch with the most simple principles of economics. Last election they had it in there platform that they were going to significantly cut military spending, while increasing the size and effectiveness of the military. How they planned to do so was never explained.

This election they want to significantly raise corporate tax rates at the very moment we are headed toward a significant economic downturn. They want to add increased regulation to the Canadian banking system which is already amoung the most regulated in the world; a move that would have the direct result of increasing transaction costs of inter-bank lending and hence discourage such transactions at the exact moment we need to encourage them. They want to end free-trade, increase subsidy to Ontario-based manufacturing industries, and generally withdraw from the international community.

Their policies are populist drivel that would spell profound economic disaster for Canada.

The NDP has ruled the Province of Saskatchewan for many years and in recent years all you've seen is people leave this Province for the boom in Alberta. Now that the Sask Party is in power (right wing) the economy is booming, Saskatchewan is in a boom, people are returning home to the Province, and we're leading the nation in economic growth. There are plans to develop nuclear energy and uranium mining is a huge industry in this province.

While the Conservatives are against Same Sex Marriage (keep in mind that Prime Minister Stephen Harper has said the issue is dead, the people have spoken, and that he will NOT revisit that issue) it's important to remember that Peter MacKay and other Conservative MP's did vote in favor of Same Sex Marriage during that infamous vote a few years ago. And yes, Peter MacKay is a Progressive Conservative (I'm a Progressive Conservative as well)

Because of the right-wing merger, there is only one true right wing party in Canada and that's the Conservative Party of Canada. Would I like to see them inch a bit closer to the centre, absolutely, but it is what it is.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper isn't perfect - there have been a lot of things that he's done that I certainly don't agree with or support. With that said, he's done a lot of good too.

He's put money towards cancer, he's put millions towards the Canadian Museum for Human Rights, his tough on crime approach is brilliant... just to name a few.

And yes I agree that the Green Party platform would be worse than the Liberal Green Shift - but I know that the Green Party will not form the Government so they were a "safe" vote for me. I wish I could have voted Conservative but I just can't support my candidate (Saskatoon–Wanuskewin).

The way the polls are, I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals managed to sneak out a minority government or if the Conservatives won a very VERY slim minority Government.

In either scenario, I question whether or not Stephen Harper would survive a Leadership Review.

As for the Liberals... here's my vision...

If they lose this election, replace him with Michael Ignatieff and get rid of that Green Shift plan or at least modify it that you won't take away money from Alberta and Saskatchewan.

After a few years of Michael Ignatieff, you can then slide Justin Trudeau in to take over the party. Trudeau is a bright young mind with a ton of potential and I sincerely hope he wins in the Papineau riding of Montreal.

He's cut and shown total disdain for the Arts... Even Margaret Atwood is after him for that.

And regarding crime... the Conservatives keep going on and on about crime despite the fact that crime rates have gone DOWN. It's because the Conservatives, like the Republicans in the U.S., want people to live in FEAR. Because then they lose rationality, and put up with crap. That's how Bush et. al. was able to push through the Iraq war--make people scared, show a bunch of evil-doers, and before you know it, it's 1984. (As you'll recall, there was perpetual war in Orwell's 1984, and during the 2 Minutes Hate the citizenry expressed their rage over an evil-doer--Emmanuel Goldstein--a mythic figure, who had a goat-like face, and who people never knew if he was dead or alive. Gee, sounds like Osama bin Laden.

I have NEVER voted Conservative (or Progressive Conservative) in my life. I have traditionally voted NDP, although in the last election I voted Green.

I do support the Liberals, though, however I will not be "strategic voting" in this election.

Most of his "cuts" to the arts is more of a shifting towards other useful arts programs - while taking away from areas that aren't as effective.

I will admit that I was against his decision to want to take away credits from "controversial" TV Shows / Films... thankfully he listened to the uproar in Quebec and the rest of Canada and has reversed his decision on that issue.

As for crime...

If you think crime is dropping, I want you to go to Edmonton or Calgary and tell that to people. Murders are rising, there's an increase in gangs, most recently a convicted sexual predator struck again - kidnapping and sexually assaulting a 7-year old girl in Edmonton.

Crime may be dropping as a whole across the country - I don't have the numbers so I can't say. But serious crime is certainly on the rise in both Edmonton and Calgary, that much I can say for sure.

Hey Enigma:
Unfortunately cities get bigger, income gaps raise, violent crime can go up a bit too. With the cost of living being too high for those at the lower ends of the economic scale. Crime is tied significantly to economic imbalances - always has been - always will be.

If you look at cities like Toronto - that are still growing just not booming our violent crime rate is down. Murders each year continue to bounce between the 60-85 a year range - not bad for a city of over three million. Of course - most Torontonians want something done to make it tougher to get handguns - a position firmly backed by the police and city and provincial politicians. Yet 'tough on crime' Harper wants to even cut back on the level of control we have on firearms and make it easier for gang members to get their hands on handguns. He also wants to cut support to programs that have been successful in keeping kids off the street and instead wants to throw 16 year olds into jails with adults for 'crime school' as Gilles Duceppe so rightly pointed out.

And I'm sorry but the latest disgrace Canadians witnessed last night and read about today with the Conservatives in cahoots with right leaning CTV hit a new all time low as far as I am concerned in their smearing of Liberal leader Dion. FYI - Dion's first language is not English and it is well known that he has a slight hearing impairment - a fact the Consrvatives and Stephen Harper are well aware of! Dion was doing a taped interview on a CTV affiliate yesterday when the interviewer asked him a question - that was incorrect grammar and mixed past tense with future tense in the question that asked What Dion would have done differently were he Prime Minister in regards to the economy. So Dion started to answer with what he would do in his first 30 days in office and then you could see he at that point realized that the question really was not asking that - so he politely said - can you ask that again - mind if we stop the tape - because he didn't quite get the question. At that point the interviewer clearly is heard saying he has no problem stopping and doing it again, which I have been told can often happen when there is a misunderstanding of a question or a technical problem during a TAPED interview.

So what happens - the local CTV affiliate aired the full thing, not editing out the stoppage. On top of that they showed the short clip on the Mike Duffy show (Duffy could work for Fox in the US he is so right wing) spinning it in such a way to say Dion does understand the economy. Even worse - on the CTV National News - an anchor I once respected - Lloyd Robertson shows the tape as well leading in with the comment ' Stephane Dion had trouble with a question about the economy today'. The Tories (Conservatives) hastily arranged a photo-op of Harper showing the Dion video stating - 'He's clearly not able to be Prime Minister because as Prime Minister you are not allowed do-overs'. Hearing impaired advocates across the country are quite justifiable outraged and more to the point the French language media pointed out how often Harper had not really answered the questions asked in French or had used the incorrect words in French - his second language.

That is so indicative of the vindicative, mean spirited practices that seem to dominate the Conservative campaign. A campaign that won't even let its local candidates talk to media - everything so tightly controlled and scripted by a tiny handful at the top. Everything about their campaign just so rubs me the wrong way. I find it distasteful and in so many ways disgraceful.

There was a by-election in this riding in Toronto Centre about a year ago that the Conservatives fired their local candidate that was selected by their local riding association. At the time the 'fired' candidate - a very reputable and worthy candidate - was quoted as saying "It has been very difficult to mount a credible local campaign, given the lack of support from the national campaign on the one hand and their seemingly contradictory insistence on micro-managing of our local efforts,.

And the examples of that micro-managing are written all over this campaign. A number of local media across the country have been expressing frustration that they can't get timely replies from the Conservatives when trying to put together riding and candidate profiles for local newspapers - because the Conservatrive candidates in some cases even say - we're not allowed to talk to you.

The Premier of Ontario wrote to each party leader asking them to answer a handful of specific questions about what their parties policies would offer Ontarians - so that the people of Ontario could have the information to make an informed choice. The Conservatives refused to reply!

And best of all just minutes ago it became public knowledge that our 'respected' Prime Minister Harper - is caught in a lie - yet again - this time in relation to his own court case he launched suing the Liberal Party of Canada. Harper had claimed that a tape recording of him discussing what some called a 'bribe' offered to an Independent MP Chuck Cadman - was altered. This is priceless. The expert - HIRED BY HARPER - found the tape had NOT been altered as the Prime Minister claims. He provided that report to Harper's lawyer today - and as is the case with court cases the lawyers for the other side received a copy of the report. The Conservative lawyers tried to put a publication ban on the report until after the election - but the court thankfully turned that request down. So we now have yet another example of the dishonesty of this Prime Minister!

I mentioned yesterday that I was going to post some of the stories and editorials slagging Harper but forgot to do so yesterday. Here they are - starting with the Breaking News story about the tape.
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/515795
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/515123
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/512824

Oh - and while I'm on my anti-Conservative Party rant - getting back to their anti-gay stance. For the last few years the Canadian tourism Commission has been working with some Provincial and local tourism boards - like tourism Toronto to promote gay and lesbian tourism to Canada. It is a significant part of the overall Tourism industry in Canada. A number of those initatives were stalled and delayed as soon as the the Conservatives were in power. They did not like the idea of the words gay and lesbian being related to the 'Canada Brand'.

And every initiative since then that has been put forth by the Canadian Tourism commission related to their gay and lesbian tourism promotion efforts - I've been told has had numerous obstacles thrown in front of it by this Conservative anti-gay government.

Another example just this weekend. One of Montreal's biggest tourism events - the Black and Blue Festival - which in addition to being a great party with associated cultural displays - but it is also an AIDS fundraiser. The event has always been supported financially by the City of Montreal the Province of Quebec, and the Government of Canada. Well guess which one of those three partners is not participating this year for the first time ever. You got it - the federal government. It was not in line with what type of tourism events the 'New' government of Canada wanted to support. In other words - It was too gay!.

They tried to pull out their support last year but the contracts had already been signed.

And Enigma - I'm sorry - but just because the Conservatives will not re-visit the Same Sex Marriage law - because the Supreme Court made it clear there was no point in doing so - does not mean I have any reason to suddenly support them. I know at its core that party is still run by people who would relegate me to second class citizen if they knew the Supreme Court would let them get away with it.

The Conservative party is trying to take away funding from art that they don't like. Further, Harper ridicules artists, calls them elitist, and says that "ordinary Canadians" are not interested in the Arts. This despite the fact that artists are generally poor, working primarily for the love of their Art. Further, Arts and Culture are hugely important economically, and are an essential part of what makes Canada Canada. And further, "ordinary Canadians" are constantly and continually participating in the Arts, attending arts events, appreciating the Arts. Because the Arts are everywhere, and Art is what makes life worth living.

End of rant.

As for crime rates... I did a quick google search and found this from 2007 about the 2006 crime rates being the lowest in 25 years. CBC article.

Interesting, Ontario, with the country's largest city (Toronto), and many other large cities and towns, has a much lower crime rate (5,869 per 100,000 population) than the more rural provinces like Saskatchewan (13,711 per 100,000 pop).

And so what? We are talking about a lady who sees herself as an arbiter of what being a true Canadian means?

We are talking about a women who willingly accepted Canada council grants well after becoming a millionaire. f**k Margaret Atwood.

Pardon, I didn't realize who the true arbiter of what being a true Canadian was.

But don't you think that Margaret Atwood (whatever you think of her) has more than paid back whatever money she's received through taxes? She's extreamely successful, is known around the world, and is a tax payer just like any other working Canadian.

But if we don't want our tax dollars (including Margaret Atwood's own tax dollars) going to artists, who represent a vital industry that is essential to our economy, should we also be cutting monies going to farmers, to the auto industry, to the oil industry, to the banking industry... who are getting a $25 BILLION bailout? If *I'm* going to give my tax dollars to those workers, I want my money to go to Arts workers, too.

Unfortunately the latest polls indicate we could be in for 4 yrs of Bush Light government as Harper may achieve a slight majority. I wonder how he will relate to President Obama given his close relationship to Dubya,

I'm praying for a minority and then considering how much the Blocs, NDP and Liberal policies are so much more closely aligned than Harper's right wing policies - will those parties have the balls to try a coalition government the way the NDP and Liberals did in the 80's here in Ontario to put Peterson in office?

It's Election Day in Canada. This editorial cartoon in today's Toronto Star says it all:

Can you write in candidates? If you all vote for Obama and we vote for Obama, then we can just merge and be one big happy family!

I came home to see that Harper and the Conservatives won the election, though without a governing majority. So is it another minority Conservative government? Or do the left-leaning parties have enough seats to band together and form a government? How would they do that? Do their leaders convene and agree to form a government, or does Harper have enough seats that it's a done deal he'll be able to form a minority government?

Canada has spoken - Stephen Harper and the Conservatives have formed their second consecutive Minority Government!

Here are the results...

Conservatives: 143 Seats (+16 from dissolution)
Liberals: 77 Seats (-18 from dissolution)
Bloc Quebecois: 49 Seats (+1 from dissolution)
NDP: 37 Seats (+7 from dissolution)
Independant: 2 Seats (-1 from dissolution)
Green: 0 Seats (-1 from dissolution)

The only way the Conservative Government can be defeated on any bill (which would trigger another election) is if ALL parties banded together to vote against the Government.

Given the circumstances, I fully expect this Government to be in power for at the very minimum 2 years.

I must say I'm happy with the results. And even though I'm Conservative, I'm happy to see Justin Trudeau win his riding and I'm very happy to see Conservative MP Rahim Jaffer LOSE in his riding.

What made the Jaffer loss even better was that he did a victory speech when he thought he had won early in the night but as the rest of the polls came in, he faced a shocking surprise.

Expect Liberal Leader Stephane Dion to be ousted in a leadership review in May. I would expect Bob Rae and Michael Ignatief to be the leading candidates to take over... Justin Trudeau will eventually run the party in my opinion but I don't think it'll be until AFTER this next leader.

In terms of % of the popular vote:

Conservatives: 37.63% (143 seats)
Liberal: 26.24% (76 seats)
BQ: 9.97% (50 seats)
NDP: 18.2% (37 seats)
Ind: 0.65% (2 seats)
Green: 6.8% (0 seats)
Other: 0.51% (0 seats)

I find it very interesting that while Canada had the liberals in power for the most part, while Bush was President, now it appears the U.S. is taking a left turn, while the Conservatives, at least for now, appear to be in some majority in Canada. We have been opposite each other for some time now.

On homicide rates in Canada. I happened across the homicide rates for selected cities (strangely, not including Ottawa) in 1990 and compared it to 2007:

1990

1. Regina 4.7
2. Saskatoon 4.4
3. Sudbury 4.0
4. Edmonton 3.5
5. Vancouver 3.5
6. Montreal 3.4
7. Winnipeg 3.1
8. Calgary 2.6
9. Toronto 1.8
10. Hamilton 1.7
11. Halifax 1.3
12. St. John's 0.0

2007

1. Winnipeg 3.6
2. Saskatoon 3.6
3. Edmonton 3.3
4. Calgary 3.1
5. Regina 2.5
6. Sudbury 2.5
7. Vancouver 2.4
8. Toronto 2.0
9. Halifax 1.8
10. Montreal 1.6
11. Hamilton 1.6
12. St. John's 0.5

Cities under 300,000 aren't very statistically significant over one year because a small number of murders can change them so much. It appears that there has been a dramatic reduction in homicides in Vancouver and Montreal, possibly a decrease in Saskatchewan and Manitoba's cities, not much change in Edmonton, Toronto and the Maritimes (what is it about St. John's anyway?)...and an increase in Calgary. And we've been on a record clip this year--I wouldn't be surprised if we're number 1 in 2008. Some of this might be related to the boom, the resulting influx of people and the housing crisis, but I think there must be a gang war going on that's upping the numbers. We've had a lot of shootings that appear gang related, one of which occurred two blocks from where I live.

I have a few Canadian civics questions. Is a Canadian Riding equivalent to a US Congressional District? Can a riding cross provincial borders? Are there 308 ridings in Canada - equal to the amount of seats in Parliament?

1. Yes.
2. No
3. Yes

I don't understand your numbers on the homicides... Edmonton has well over 20 homicides thus far...

In Saskatoon I know for a fact that there has been a major increase in stabbings, and shootings - not necessarily murders.

Those are homicides per 100,000. Edmonton metro's around 1,000,000, so they must have had about 33 murders last year, probably slightly fewer in 1990 but slightly more in a per capita basis, since the city has grown. It is normal for them to be over 20 by October. As far as Saskatoon, all I can really say is homicides were considerably fewer in 2007 than in 1990, but as I commented before, one-year homicide rates for a city its size aren't very meaningful. Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina have always had among the homicide rates in the country, though. There's nothing new in that.

Without hard numbers, I'm always very skeptical of "crime waves" reported by the media. Coverage of crime in the media seems to expand exponentially over time, regardless of actual crime ammounts.

And by the way, I can't believe you're crediting the Conservative provincial government with Saskatchewan's boom. With the increased prices over the past few years for commodities such as oil and wheat, Saskatchewan would be booming even if Robert Mugabe were premier.

Back to Fantomas question about the NDP. I think the NDP have struggled historically with the burden of being a third party; many voters feel they're "throwing away their vote" if they don't vote either conservative or liberal at the national level. They'd have a lot more power in a proportional system; they got 18% of the popular vote this time around. They have had more impact at the provincial level, currently forming the government in Manitoba, and have held power in BC, Saskatchewan, and Ontario in the past.

The conservatives are the only significant right wing party, though there are obscure parties that don't run in every riding, just as there are in the states. For much of its history, Canada didn't have a strong left/right political split. Both the liberals and progressive conservatives were pretty centrist.

I'm not crediting the Sask Party for Saskatchewan's Boom... you're right, you could have anyone in power and we'd be in this boom... but what I'm saying is that under the Sask Party we'll be able to not only sustain it for a longer period of time but we'll be able to see our economy improve where as an NDP Government would have hindered our growth (in my opinion).

Last nights results show that nationally we dont trust Harper enough to give him a majority but we also dont like the leader/policies of the Liberals enough to elect them either. The NDP never have a chance of forming a government by themselves and the Bloc exist only in Quebec so dont figure nationally. Guess there will be a leadership change with the Liberals and some suggest that Harper himself will go because his ego has been bruised twice now.
In another 18 months or so we will do this all over again, but generally Canadians dont mind minority governments because it prevents unpopular Prime Ministers from screwing up to badly.

Last nights results show that nationally we dont trust Harper enough to give him a majority but we also dont like the leader/policies of the Liberals enough to elect them either. The NDP never have a chance of forming a government by themselves and the Bloc exist only in Quebec so dont figure nationally. Guess there will be a leadership change with the Liberals and some suggest that Harper himself will go because his ego has been bruised twice now.
In another 18 months or so we will do this all over again, but generally Canadians dont mind minority governments because it prevents unpopular Prime Ministers from screwing up to badly.

Thankfully no majority for the Conservatives - and the Liberals will elect a new leader to replace the honourable and decent Stephan Dion. I have no doubt at all that eventually we will adopt something along the lines of the Green Shift platform he tried to present to Canadians. And for the good of every living creature on this planet - the sooner the better.

Dion's problem - he doesn't have the smooth communication skills and image that obviously are required to succeed with the pathetic way our media covers elections these days. Lester B Pearson - the Nobel Peace Prize winning Prime Minister - who the airport here in Toronto is named after - would never win an election today. And we are the lesser for it.

It was a lose - lose - lose night. Harper did not get the majority he so desparately wanted, the Liberals lost 20 seats and the NDP did not make nearly as many gains as they hoped for considering the weak Liberal leader and the incredible animosity so many have for Harper and the Conservatives in places like Toronto and Montreal. I've talked to at least 50-60 gay people about this election and not one would admit to supporting the Conservatives. Not one - at least until I read Enigma's supportive comments here. But even he did not vote for them.

And clearly Canada lost - as we had BY FAR the lowest turnout ever for a Federal election with only 59% turnout. So clearly something was sadly lacking this campaign. We needed an Obama to energize people - and clearly none of these leaders succeeded in captivating Canadians.

And getting back to the media and Dion - the one moment that made me smile and almost cry at the same time. As Dion was entering the ballroom to give his concession speech - he was being chased down by CTV reporter Roger Smith. CTV is the network that aired Dion struggling with the way a question was worded to him after promising that it would be an out take. Other media have raked CTV over the coals for what they did. Well as Roger Smith was trying to thrust a microphone in front of Dion's face - he got sent flying by one of the bodyguards. You could hear him talking to Lloyd Robertson at the anchor desk - saying 'I just got sent flying.' He doggedly got up and started yelling after Dion again - chasing after him. As he got close Dion turned with a visibly angry look on his face made a motion towards Smith as if trying to push him away. I was thinking he was about to take a swing at him. Smith dipped to one side and again made a move with the microphone towards Dion asking something like - What are your feelings'. Dion in an angry voice - with a disgusted look on his face said something along the lines of - Of all people - it is not going to be CTV that I talk to! That was the part that made me smile.

Later on after the speech CTV went back to their reporter Roger Smith and asked him if he was OK - and he went on at great length - saying he could understand Dion's frustration in view of what CTV had done - admitting that internal polling that had shown the Liberals gaining about a point a day over 5-6 days on the Conservatives until the night that CTV released that clip - and immediately the trends reversed. That's bad enough but the part that made me really want to cry was that Smith went on to say that in private conversations during the campaign Dion could not believe that Canadians were buying the outright Conservatives lies about his Green Shift plan - and that even moreso he could not understand why none of the media would ever challenge those lies. And basically the CTV anchor and CTV reporter as much as admitted that Dion was right - they didn't challenge those lies. Instead they sabotaged his momentum. Nice job CTV.

I actually know a LOT of gay people who voted Conservative and/or support the Conservatives.

Dion was a compromise candidate who was well out of his element as leader of a party. The man is smart and definitely belongs in politics but he just doesn't inspire. This result was as predictable as the election was forgettable and in the end Canada won't be much better or worse off for it. The result doesn't mean much for gay in specific, or Canada in general and I think what we should take out of this is that the status quo was good enough for Canadians. I don't think Harper is a great person to have at the helm of our economy at the moment, but I also don't think that Dion would be any better, although for what it's worth the Carbon tax would not be the death-knell for Canada that the conservatives made it out to be. Definitely no party deserved a Majority.

Hopefully the liberals will put a better man at the helm -I would like Bob Rae or michael Ignatiaf, although both come with considerably baggage- and we will have a true choice next time round.

Former New Brunswick Premier, and former Canadian Ambassador to the United States Frank McKenna has said that he is interested in running for the Federal Liberal leadership if and when Dion steps down.

McKenna would be a GREAT choice. He's not from Ontario and Quebec, was a good premier, is well respected by both sides of the house, and has VERY little baggage.

But I don't expect Harper to stay until the next electio either. Clearly, it must be apparent to him and his rethuglican staffers, that the reason the Conservatives didn't get a majority is that the electorate don't trust them. That's a situation that Harper has created. The problem for the Cons, is that there are no credible candidates. Peter MacKay is a nice guy, but woefully inadequate for the PM's job, and most other cabinet members are less intelligent than him. I don't know who would run, but after what he did to Ontario, god help the country if Flaherty, "the tiny terror" becomes leader.

Must be a Western Canadian thing, because here in Toronto Centre - the riding that has the gay village the Conservatives often come third behind both the Liberals and NDP - inspite of picking up a fair number of votes up in the Rosedale area of the riding - one of Canada's richest neighbourhoods - home to the Bay Street elite who support the Conservatives.

Quite often the Conservative candidates will no-show when local candidate meetings are held in the gay village. And clearly the leaders of the Conservatives as much as admit they do not expect much support considering their very anti-gay track record. They often are the only Federal party that are a no-show at Toronto Pride. And they finaslly had to replace their local candidate here in the middle of the election campaign because of assinine remarks along the lines of - 'There should not be special hate crime legislation - instead the gays should all just carry guns and that should cut down on the gay-bashing.'

And even after that happened one of Harper's top advisors was quoted as saying - no big deal - we're talking Toronto Centre - its not as if we ever expect to win there - in obvious reference to the huge gay population here.

I equate gays voting Conservative here - with this RIGHT wing non-progressive version of the Party as it exists today - to be the equivilent of an American gay voting Republican. The 'treat me like dirt and as a second class citizen - but just give me that tax break please' mentality that I will NEVER understand.

Hey LkSimcoe:
In complete agreement with what you say. Harper is a one man government Never have we seen such control by the PM's office - not even allowing Cabinet Ministers to comment on matters related to their own department! And as for Flaherty - Ontario is still recovering from the mess he and Harper-clone Mike Harris left this province in.

In Ontario under Harris and Flaherty it was always an 'us versus them' approach, and if you got left in their wake too bad. My morning walks with my dog within a couple of years went from saying Hi to a few people in line for breakfast at the Good Shepherd Hostel to an obstacle course pulling my dog 'Tux' away from dozens and dozens of homeless people sleeping wherever they could get some shelter or heat in building doorways or on subway grates. And supposedly according to the neo-cons - that made us a 'better' Ontario.

Sorry, couldn't ever support Frank. As Premier of NB he was another Tiny Terror. Everything was his way or the highway. Even when he said he would hold public consultation on major issues you actually had to be invited by and approved by the Premiers Office before you could express an opinion. Then he sold existing highways to a private company so they could put tolls on the roads. The contract was considered top secret and no details were revealed to the Legislature or to the public. Very unpopular with the public and their were major grassroot protests. It was only afterwards that it was discovered that members of his government had ties to the private company. It cost NB taxpayers a lot to get out of the deal when the Libs were tossed out. Frank also raised provincial income taxes every time the Mu,roney federal income tax rate was reduced. A lot of good things were achieved during his term as Premier but for the most part they were done by private business leaders. Frank was the cheerleader and took credit for their hard work. He has a bit of a Napoleon complex.

There are some members of the Conservatives that aren't completely against same sex rights. Peter MacKay voted in favor of keeping the status quo of same sex marriage.

Enigma

I think you'll find that the Conservatives who supported gay rights are from the old Progressive Conservative party. Those from the old Reform/Alliance voted 100%against us. And the old PC party
has been forced out of every position of power in the new Conservative Party apparatus. It's now completely controlled by the reform/alliance wing. I expect to see Harpers new cabinet take a radical
turn to the right. Where I live, we have Peter Van Loan as our MP, but the surrounding ridings all swung conservative, and most of those MP's elected would qualify for the Heritage Party with their views. All are extreme right wing.

You can't really say the old PC has been forced out of every position of power when you consider Peter MacKay was the head of Foreign Affairs and is now Minister of Defence.

Peter MacKay, while an honourable man, (notice the Cdn spelling), is a token figure in the cabinet. He was taken out of foreign affairs as he was less than adequate. As Defense Minister, he is there to sell and implement Harper's policy, and even he has to have every speech approved by the PM's office.

With no freedom at all, and every single cabinet position being micro managed by the PM's office, it's not a stretch to call the ONE former PC in cabinet a token so that they don't lose the old PC members in the party.

And as for Conservative "free votes"? Sure they do, but there is retribution if they don't follow Harper's "free vote" example. The vote on gay marriage was to throw a bone to the right. There was no way he could have passed the law without invoking the Notwithstanding clause, and that would have cost him the country, so he had a vote he knew he would lose, and walked away.

he hasn't had another free vote since, and won't for a long time.

This is not related to the Canadian election, however it's not worth a thread of its own...

I may be a Harper hater, but I will give our PM some props for his performance (lead vocal and piano) of the Beatles' With A Little Help From My Friends (accompanied by the likes of Yo-Yo Ma) at the National Centre for the Arts in Ottawa.