The Draw is out.

http://www.sonyericssonopen.com/3/en/asset.../09ATP_MDS1.pdf

Boy, Tennis Guy - you're gonna have a field day sounding off about Federer's draw here . Roger did get a pretty kind draw through the Quarters, where he's seeded to meet Roddick. One thing that's been impressive about Andy this year is his leaner frame improving his movement considerably. His SF against Nadal at IW showed him getting to many more shots he didn't get to in his SF against Rafael two years ago. Andy might be able to repeat his conquest of Roger again here, given Federer's confidence is a little shaky at the moment. Provided Andy gets through some bumpy possibilities in Haas, Safin, Tursonov, and Monfils.

Nadal's Quarter looks good for him, so long as he can deal with the Karlovic Serve. But he dealt with it on grass at Queens last year. Ferrer, Cilic or Del Potro loom as a QF foe.

It's Murray and Djokovic who landed in the tough quarters of the draw. Murray has Nalbandian, Gonzo, Verdasco and Gasquet (who took him to 5 Sets at Wimbledon) all in his Quarter. Djokovic gets Tsonga, Berdych and Simon in his Quarter.

Two intriguing First Rounders: in the Top Half Lower Quarter we get Sam Querry/Gilles Muller; and in the Bottom Half Third Quarter there's Gulbis/Baghdatis.

You're right, once again the Fed gets a ridiculously easy draw. Forget his quarter, his entire half would have been almost a given if Simon and Tsonga hadn't landed in it...and I don't really consider Tsonga a threat to Federer at all, yet. Finally, he gets the Djoke in his half, but Nole isn't quite the threat anymore, huh? I don't care how much fitter Roddick is, the Fed will still throttle him, even if I love him and want him to leave his wife and run away with me Andy took him out here last year as one of his very few wins against the Fed. Well, maybe LeMonf could do something... uh... BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! (sorry, couldn't stop myself)

And Rafa gets Murray, Leaner-Nalbandian, and Verdasco in his semi. Um-hmmmm. Roger must be happy knowing his draw is this easy, and that he only has to defend QF points, and that Rafa has to make it to the final, at least, to defend his.

The frequency of these lucky draws can't last forever.

I think part of the reason Fed seems to pick up easy draws so often is that there are still so few players who can consistently defeat him, despite all the sturm und drang over his 'decline.' We have Nadal, Murray, the still-undefeated Simon (who unfortunately seems to be in something of a tailspin after reaching his first Slam quarterfinal), a motivated Nalbandian, and a Djokovic in the right mind. That's about it. It seems one has to have a patient, stealthy game and relentless defence that can frustrate him into errors - part of what was mind-boggling about the Fish defeat last year was that it was 100% going on the offence, but that was the exception to prove the rule.

Perhaps Roddick might do the job - he is certainly looking good and should draw confidence from being at the scene of his win last year, and unlike in a Slam where taking three sets from Fed is still all but impossible for him, he can fluke out a tiebreaker or two at the best-of-three level. I'm kind of thinking though that Fed will sleepwalk to the final, where he takes advantage of a fatigued/jaded Murray or Nadal. Fortunately the clay will come just in time to cool off the orgiastic accolades which will surely follow a Miami title, although I would hate for him to break his considerable losing streak against Rafa going into the clay season.

Funny stuff Urban Suede. I dunno, Federer is really looking out of shape to me right now. He looks more like an expectant dad (though not an expectant mom, at least) and less like a player fighting for a grip at the top. That might not matter much in 2-of-3 on hard courts (though it does matter). But it is going to matter on the clay, and there isn't a lot of time to trim down.

When is Mirka due? I figure that event and when it happens is going to have a big impact on where Federer's emphasis is this year. I've already read that he isn't playing Monte Carlo. Maybe he'll focus more on the tail-end of clay season and on Wimbledon?

Other stuff:

-- Boy is Gulbis a disappointment this year. He's scarcely playing like a top 100 player, and his not-so-good ranking could plummet further at/after the French.

-- The second-tier US men made an impression today: Kendrick beat Soderling in straights, Taylor Dent beat Almagro in the steepest-air portion of a third-set tiebreak, and Michael Russell almost defeated Monfils.

LOL, there's no doubt in my mind that the fair-weather Federer minions will be out in full force if he were to win here. I do doubt Roddick's and Djoke's ability to put up much resistance at this point, though.

Meh.




Yeah, he's going to be awfully distracted if she has the baby during or near the time of the Big W or USO. All I read was "the summer" as for when the baby's due.




Don't forget Isner, Querry and Reynolds won their respective first round matches as well, Reynolds with a great win over Chela.

Ummm...yeah I don't think Reynolds win should be considered great since Chela is currently ranked 169th, hasn't done a damn thing in god knows when, and Reynolds is currently ranked 64th. To get bageled by Chela in the first set was kind of ridiculous. He will have to pick it up.

Umm...yeah, but when Reynolds has started off the year at 2-7 in main draws vs Chela who at least has started out with a 6-4 record...umm...yeah, it IS a great win for his confidence, and, overall. How cute, you thought the rankings explained everything. That's adorable.

Yeah I did see the YTD stats too but wouldn't dare try and make a comparison between 2-7 vs 6-4 (wow...huge difference ) for a guy who is STILL ranked 100 spots below Reynolds. When Reynolds beats a top 50 player then I think that will be great. Getting bageled by guys ranked in the 100s is nothing to write home about even if you do win the match. I guess he could've gone away after being bageled in the first but this is just another testament to how bad American mens tennis is..if this is considered a "great" win.

Hmm....so Karlovic out. I know that makes some people happy with his ace machine ass. Nalbandian going out will make a lot of but he's so up and down that you can never count on him. Querrey has fallen and Verdasco just continues to impress me with his game.

A bit off topic but still Miami (ish) related...our young Richard Gasquet was having some fun with Miami Cheerleaders.





Now which of those pictures does he seem more at ease and natural?

I guess he's more comfortable cheerleading than playing tennis, because he just pulled out of Miami.

Maybe he threw out his shoulder due to hyper pom-pom action.

I dunno, Gasquet isn't looking like an athlete right now either. His legs and lower half have always been fine, but he's never worked on upper body strength or core flexibility. In those pics he has the face of someone who has been partying a lot.

In Federer's case, a little belly and lower back flab is more than understandable at this stage in life and career. (Still, he'll have to get to training eventually for more major wins.) But Gasquet just keeps proving he doesn't care. And why should he? Tennis players at his level are paid outrageously. Exhibit A: Nalbandian. In losing so soundly to Troicki, who knows if he's struggling with a Nadal loss hangover (he wouldn't be the first), a hangover from Miami partying, or both. And who cares? He's shown more than once how little it all matters to him -- and that's why Nadal deserved to beat his five match point-having ass.

Anyone get a load of the Miami Players Party this year? Man, Federer aside, tennis players -- male and female -- do not know how to dress. On the women's side, Serena looked great, and as the reliable ballcrusher reports, Pivovarova is a looker. Pavlyuchenkova's getup has to be seen to be believed. On the men's side, Nadal keeps wearing the same blah casual stuff and his hair looks better on court. Verdasco's outfit was flat-out ridiculous.

Oh, and now I'm really straying from ATP, but Sharapova looks...different.

Tennis: Monaco gave Murray a small scare/challenge, but ultimately paid the price for not having much of a serve. Isner lost to Ferrer in a three-setter between one of the biggest servers and perhaps the best returner. I'm not big on Isner's type of game, but he is improving. His groundstrokes are much better now.

I am really gonna need for photographers to not take any pictures of Taylor Dent until he is completely finished with his service motion.

Dent photos are hilarious. He seems like a good guy -- a Justin Gimelstob type player who isn't a sexist clown -- and it's refreshing to see such an old-school style get some results. Especially since he's coming back from major, and really inhibiting, injuries. But I can't see him giving Federer any problems. Rogelio's faced Kevin Kim (who advanced when his opponent, who was winning, retired), the youthful Nicholas Kiefer "fresh" from a long three-setter, and now Dent.

I'm looking forward to the Tsonga-Simon fourth round match. They had a really entertaining match on clay last spring.

Another match to keep an eye on, this time in the third round, is Lopez-Verdasco. You have to favor Verdasco, but...

-- It's perplexing to me that all the talk/on-air hype during the Australian Open was about Verdasco being Spain's Davis Cup hero. True, he did clinch the title with his singles win over Acasuso -- and what an ugly, challenger-level choke fest that match was. It mattered more as a sign that Verdasco could win under pressure and against a hostile crowd...

-- In a way, the real Davis Cup hero was F Lo, who scored a crucial singles-win upset early in the tie and then won the doubles with Verdasco to essentially put Verdasco in the catbird seat. Lopez is an underrated hard court player, always on the brink, so you never know.

August was what I read.

OK - The Men's Tournament gets its first fashion citation by me, a jeans and t-shirt man if there ever was one. But did anyone catch sight of those hideous shoes Djokovic had on last night ?? Oy vay. When your shoes are specifically colored to match the Reflex Blue color of your shirt, well, I'm no Mr. Blackwell, but sheesh - it was a real distraction from his game on court, which looked pretty good last night.

Memo to Novak: Sweetheart, uh...get someone in your entourage to coordinate your ensemble. You look like a Smurf who ran out of blue paint.

Damn, Massu was BLASTING that forehand past Murray!! Murray's lucky to have won that match in straight sets, especially the way Massu started with a lead. Credit to Murray, though, for figuring out how to move Massu out of position and then either hitting to his backhand, or striking a clean winner altogether, since Massu was even more Federer-esque than Federer in favoring his forehand. The way he positioned himself and kept moving more to the left, Gimelstob joked that he'd hit his forehand from the locker room, if it meant that he could indeed hit a forehand.

Nadal, too, had a challenge from little-known Frederico Gil. Little Gil hung tough with Rafa in the first set. He served well and took a surprising offensive approach to shot-making that really was effective with Nadal. But Nadal's "violent" topsin, as people like to call it, along with his just plain SICK angles, turned out to be too much for Gil, but it was surprising and entertaining with how close it turned out to be.

What did I say about Lopez?

Even if he loses this third-set struggle, he's proven that he's been/being ignored amid the Verdasco-goes-US hype. It was FLo who truly set up the Davis Cup for Spain. He's not to be trifled with on hard courts.

Two-Hander, you can be sure I never ignore Feliciano Lopez.........................ever.

The 4th Round is now over, and lots of both the sublime and the ridiculous. To the vanquished:

*Victor Troicki - go home and don't come back on the tour until you learn how to compete. What is it with all the Serbs and their frequent episodes of packing it in whenever the battle gets too pitched?

*Tomas Berdych - see above. It's tragic when someone with as gorgeous a game as you've got does a gut check and finds hollow insides way too often. Man up, kid. Before your go from a Could Be to a Has Been without ever being an Is.

*Taylor Dent - good to see you back, and man, for a couple of games early in the first set you had Federer doing some heavy thinking out there. But sweetheart, you'll need to shed about 20 pounds if you plan on moving up any time soon.

*Gilles Simon - kudos for keeping Jo honest and taking the first set. But I think when you did, it only made him mad and that's why you got stomped after that

*David Ferrer - Your personal Zen Lifestyle has evidently caused problems regading how to Zone professionally, which you used to do so well. You now make it easier for us to forget you were #5 two years ago.

*Felicano Lopez - Nice Serving. But how much longer will you be playing your matches in search of a backhand?

*Gael Monfils - Uh, Bucky...when are you ever gonna grow up and stop acting like a Junior on the court? Memo to Roger Rasheed: make Gael do what he did to Marat all the time. You'll both be rich.

*Stanislas Wawrinka - you were as heroic tonight as you would have been had you won. Bravo.

And..

Murray - can you get your revenge on Fernando, or will his hair gel be too distracting for you again? Djokovic - you're game looks to be Coming Around Again, but You're So Vain you might not be aware Jo Willy owns you right now. And speaking of owning, Mr. Federer, Andy R. is one of your many pieces of ATP Property - yet he ran away from you here last year, so will you cage him up once again? And Stretchito Del Potro: you've been looking very smooth, but Nadal spanked you in the California Desert - can you make the leap this time? And Rafael - a question for you: how is it that you can play so awfully (by your standards) in your 3 matches here and still win all of them in straight sets? Please copy Troicki and Berdych on your "Winning Matches When You Have No Business Doing So" treatise - they need it.

oh no.

I'd say the Djoke was lucky Tsonga was having an error fest day today because he looked like the heat was really getting to him. Had it gone to 3 sets I think Jo would've taken that one. Good fight from Novey to close it out in straights.

I must admit that was an entertaining match between Rogelio and Roddick. Roddick's 15 less pounds has clearly helped him be able to get to more balls and be more consistent in rallies. He's really consistent when you think about it...doesn't have matches where its tons of unforced errors. He still doesn't have that weapon in his ground game that can truly get him into the upper tier of men's tennis. But, he had his chances for sure. There were some really great rallies and shotmaking in the match though. It ended so suddenly it seemed. Roddick was up, ya thought he was going to hold and we'd inch toward a tiebreak but then there it was...deuce, net cord to set up match point, and a great passing shot to win the match for Rogelio. Good stuff from both.

That was a painful loss for Andy....especially with that net cord to set up match point....which made it all the more satisfying for me. Sorry, Roddick fans. I also loved when they asked Roger afterwards if that was the best Andy played against him. And he was like ummmm, no. And then when they asked him to elaborate which match was, he said a US Open match where he beat Andy in straights...and the first Wimbledon final. Both matches that Andy lost....not the two he won. Hilarious....and honest.

In reality, Roger shouldve closed it out in straights but Roger's 'weird-but-now-becoming-more-normal-for-Roger' string of errors gave Andy some real looks at getting the win. Andy needs to learn to come to net with an approach shot to Roger's backhand....how many forehand passing shots did he want to see Roger hit? I know Andy doesnt have the same topspin as Rafa, but approach with a high ball to Roger's backhand. You've played him 19 times now, Andy....it's time to figure that out. BUT on a positive note for Andy, I do think the fitness is helping....and call me crazy, but I think he will have a good clay court season this year. If anything, he is too patient and relying on defense too much for hard court tennis, espec for someone with his skills....take some more risks, Andy. As much as he really bothers me on the court, I do appreciate all the work he has put in over the years....and how he has stayed toward the top of the game for so long. Gimelstob is crazy though if he insists on saying over and over that Andy is really #4 right now. There is a clear Top 4 right now, and that only includes one Andy....Murray, of course.

Did anybody catch the minor exchange of words when Rog served before Andy was ready?

Yeah - the approaches were stupid to begin with since Roddick isn't exactly a capable volleyer, and approaching to the Federer Forehand is just asking for it. The TV commentary mentioned that numerous times. Roddick proved last night two things clearly that make him vulnerable against the best: he's not exactly a great thinker on the court (e.g., the forehand approaches); and his movement is still lacking. It struck me watching him that Roddick is basically planted on the court and is waiting after a ball gets struck in a rally before his feet start moving. He's not lively on his feet and doesn't anticipate very well at all and this leaves a lot of open spaces for his opponents to hit into, and the better guys do that a lot more often. Roddick basically just tries to get to the ball without any thought about how to construct a point, instead of working a point to expose Federer's weaknesses. He spends most of his time against the best guys defending holes in his own game. Once a rally starts, Roddick plays to "not lose" the point.

That said, he did come up with the occasional flattened driven backhand wide to Federer's backhand, and that shot helped him generate the service break in the second set. He just didn't do it often enough to make a difference. And thanks to Federer's over 40 errors, he was in the match longer than he normally would have been.

The exchange had to do with Roddick holding up his hand not ready to receive serve and Federer didn't notice it, so he was given a first serve.

So Del Po defeats Rafa! Show me someone who could have predicted that result.

The weirdest thing about it is that Nadal was up a double break in the final set. I can't remember when he lost a match from that position. I wonder if it will linger at all or if he'll banish it.

Not a good way for him to enter clay season, but he always enters it with a defeat, since he has yet to win Miami.

As for Juan Martin, I admit to not seeing this match, but he has needed a win like this after the humiliations from Federer and never even getting a set from Nadal or Murray (and Djokovic?) in their past encounters.

I don't hold much hope for him in his next match.

But I do think this result might make clay season a little more interesting.

Clay tournaments were where Del Potro began his lengthy winning streak last year. More notably, when Argentina chose clay in the Davis Cup semi against Russia, Del Potro was playing next level tennis -- he annihilated Davydenko, he was pulling Kolya all over the court like a puppeteer with the height and angle of his shots.

Rafa owns clay, especially Roland Garros. But in the upcoming clay Masters (or 1000s or whatever), Del Potro's now as much of a contender to me as Djokovic, Federer, or Murray.

BRAVO JUAN MARTIN!!!!

That's it for Rafa. THE DOWNWARD SLIDE BEGINS.

I remember when I got ripped on for saying that Andy needed to do this- getting into the best physical condition of his life- others said he was there... I was like- nuh uh- and I am pleased to see that he has really pushed that. Plus it gives him more confidence.

I also liked that I mentioned that he should play some dubs in smaller tournaments to work on serve and return angles, transition game to net and net play. He won with Fish!

Anyways, I am rarely on the correct side.... so YAY ME!





Ha! Ha! Funny shit!!!! I wish only for a downward slide from him through the French- to give Roger a shot!!

I was serious.

OMG, Verdasco pulled something in his ass, and they just repeatedly showed slo-mo footage of his sweetcheeks bouncing up and down. He has to go the locker room to "have it worked on".

I got home just as Rafa was up 3-love in the third. Imagine my SHOCK when JMDP not only broke back twice, but went on to win the breaker ! Gotta hand it to JMDP, though, the guy ran like hell, was rock solid off both wings, and came up with big shots in the clutch. Really wish I could see the entire match, but Butterfingers here accidentally deleted the tivo of it. But from what I did see, Rafa didn't give away the match. Del Potro had to seize it. And considering that he was 0 for 12 (winning a grand total of two sets) against the Big 4 (which, contrary to Gimelstob's expert <cough> opinion, are Nadal, Federer, Djokovic, and Murray), this match was a real breakthrough.

By now the Djokovic-Tsonga match is ancient history (next up is my movie review of "Birth of a Nation"), but since I just watched the tivo of it ... Novak has gotta figure out a way to deal with the heat. Dude, it's too late to take up professional hockey, and tennis is (for the most part) an outdoor summer sport. That said, I'm impressed he was able to gut out a win. Mind you, Tsonga made it a lot easier for him, what with all his unforced errors and mental lapses. But credit to Novak for hanging in there. The upcoming match vs. Federer will be verrrrrry interesting. There's no love lost between these two, especially after Fed criticized Novak for his Australian Open retirement. Oh, and just saw an ad that those Smurf shoes are Novak's signature shoe. OK, I'm guessing slightly less demand than Air Jordans.

The only QF I saw in its entirety was the one I wish I had missed. Egads, that match between Murray and El Bonito wasn't much of a match, huh? Hope Fernando's ass injury isn't too serious. Oh geez, all sorts of impure thoughts just shot through my head.

I had a feeling Del Potro would pull it off going into the match. Rafa had been going through the motions for much of his matches this week (but still winning them) and looking a bit jaded; meanwhile Del Potro was overdue his breakthrough upset against the top tier, especially after all the criticism following his last outings against Rafa and Fed. (When he was still just a promising callow youth, he faced Rafa at the FO and Fed at Wimbledon in 2007 and pushed each of them to 7-5 sets - better than any of his recent efforts until yesterday, strangely.) At one stage it seemed like it might actually shape up to be a routine straight-setter, so credit to Rafa for roaring back, and then to DelPo for responding in kind.

It's actually a win-win for Rafa in some ways - he already picked up the Indian Wells title and reached the quarters here, netting some points to help offset those that Fed has now picked up by reaching the semis (and more potentially); meanwhile he now gets some time off to recover and make the transition for Monte Carlo, which is in just two weeks, and he avoided a loss to his top rivals at the moment of Murray or Fed. The latter especially would have got a lot of confidence from it going forward. However, I would like to see Rafa win Miami at some point, after reaching two disappointing finals, especially in 2005 when he was two points from a straight-set victory in his Masters final debut. Plus it would set him up for another impressive multi-surface winning streak like last year going into the clay.

I wasn't surprised to see Murray wipe the court with a misfiring Verdasco. It's exactly how he dominated him before with something like five straight wins; that's what made the (first) loss at the AO so shocking and bizarre. So I'm glad he restored the natural order. His style of patient, mixing-it-up cat-and-mouse play is exactly the kind to leave hotshot streaky players like Verdasco drowning in a sea of errors, so it's just a bad match-up for the nevertheless much-improved Spaniard.

Anyway, I'm guessing Del Potro will not have much left in the tank after squeaking out his win, the same way he was the last time he faced (and fell to) Murray in the USO quarters. Going to gloomily predict that Murray takes out DelPo, Fed takes out a heatstroke-addled Djoko (Serbia isn't north of the Arctic Circle last time I checked, right?), and an overconfident Murray fails to continue his 'ownership' of a motivated and wary Fed.

What makes the Semi Finals more intriguing than they normally would be is the sheer dislike each of the competitors has for their opponents. As we know, Federer and Djokovic have no love lost between them. But neither do Murray and Del Potro. In fact in Rome last year those two actually had words across the net towards each other, and none of those words had a lotta love in them. Given how well Murray is playing right now, it's tough to see Del Potro coming through, especially if he chalks up as many errors as he did against Nadal.

Despite the fact that Federer is better, Djokovic has a decent chance in the other Semi. He's been getting better every round here, and Federer had a rougher than usual match against his pigeon Roddick, making over 40 errors. There'll be a lot of Djokovic backhands down the line at high speed into Federer's forehand. This one's a Pick 'Em.

Another loss to one of the other top 4 guys for Rogelio. There is a point from those who have said that you need to be able to still stay on top of your toughest competitiors when they improve their games. Roger is not winning the French and I see Wimbledon and the US Open more wide open this year. I forget who wrote the article recently that said Roger isn't even top 2 anymore except on paper. It seems much easier to beat him in best of 3 though. I still put him #2 behind Nadal in a best of 5 set match. So he does still have an advantage at the slams even though the competition is getting better.

Oh Roger....i don't mind anymore when you lose to Rafa, but WHY WHY WHY did you have to lose to that smug S.O.B.?

Bullseye.

With Federer, I just don't think he's really out to win in the way he used to be, or at least at these non-major events.

I still think that he can and I really hope WILL change after he becomes a father.

But right now he's carrying some extra weight around the midsection, and those kinds of things have major impact for a player as graceful as him, especially as he gets older.

I think Del Potro is a handsome guy. He just turned 20, but looks like he is in his 30's or 40's!

Even though it isn't likely, I would like to see Del Potro defeat Murray.

He has a big game and moves well for his height. With those big and flat groundstrokes, he should do well at Wimbledon.

However, Del Potro might have trouble getting down for the low bouncing balls.

Pony is putting up more of a fight than I expected. Great to see.

Dedric keep an eye out for him on clay.

Changes will come with parenthood for him, as they do for just about everybody. But the changes might not be so beautiful as far as his career is concerned. It's doubtful once the baby arrives that Federer will carry a lot of motivation to play all out at full concentration all the time. Those 2nd Round matches in some far corner of the globe at a tournament he's won many times won't carry the same importance once his child is born. He won't be able to stop himself from having his mind wander to his family, which is totally understandable. That's when he'll find himself in some match against a hungry young kid looking to claim a huge scalp to launch his own career and wham-o: it's either a shock loss or a pull-out-all-the-stops win in the 2nd Round, with four or five rounds to go until you get the trophy. It'll make those tournaments even less appealing. Those kinds of shock results have happened repeatedly in tennis history. Once the newborn gets here, your concentration more easily drifts away from the match your playing. It happened to Connors, Lendl, McEnroe, Becker. And I won't be shocked if it happens to Roger too. When your kids get older, then you tend to be more settled. But it's tough to keep career focus when they first arrive. Your career is ephemeral, and in athletics, temporary. Your family is forever.

His outburst today was nothing new, it's just been dormant for many years. Federer at the beginning of his ATP career used to do that stuff all the time. He was a total hot-head. And he'd said recently that he would never have been able to win a Major until he got his emotions under control and channeled that energy differently. That it's returned after all this time is a bad sign. Ted Robinson on FSN today made a terrific point to those who keep emploring that Federer "needs a coach". His point was Federer can have whatever he wants, so "need" is irrelevant. The question is: does Federer want a coach? I guess we'll find out soon enough whether he does.

The first semi wasn't pretty, but it was interesting. Even if it was hardly Roger at his best, Novak still has a lot to be happy about. First, despite being a horrible wind player, he actually handled it pretty well today, certainly better than Roger (duh). Second, Novak has a weird little obsession about crowd support yet was unfazed by the very vocal crowd support for Roger. And third, a win over Fed, even a subpar Fed, is still a great win. For a guy who's been struggling quite a bit in 2009, Novak kept a level head out there. And for a guy who couldn't hit three forehands in a row since the racket switch, Novak was hitting it very well in tough playing conditions.

Robinson's comment was spot-on. For the right price (which no doubt Federer could afford), Darren Cahill might suddenly realize that he could balance family and coaching demands after all. As much as MakeHimStop went on and on like a broken record about how Federer has to get himself a coach , Roger doesn't give a sh*t what that tennis genius or any of the other tennis geniuses think. The racket mangling was a bit of an eye-popping moment, even if he used to do it all the time as a young'un, but I would hardly call it a "meltdown." More eye-popping was his comment afterward that he was glad the hardcourt season was over and he could move on to clay. OK, so the 3-time winner of the Australian and the 5-time winner of the US Open is glad to ditch the hardcourts ... huh wha??? And why exactly is the zero-time winner of Roland Garros so eager to play on the dirt? So Rafa can spank his bare bottom in front of 15,000 fans? As much as Roger might want to trivialize these losses in non-Slam events, I gotta think all these losses collectively do take their toll. Plus, spin it as less important or not that significant or whatever you want, but beating Roger in Miami definitely helps Novak (and Andy Murray and whoever else) when they run into Fed at a Slam, even if it's only an eensy bit. But in a tight match, an eensy extra bit of confidence might make the difference.

The first set of the Murray/Del Potro match looked like a classic case of post-big upset letdown. Del Potro didn't seem to be mentally in the match at all, and Murray was doing whatever he wanted with the ball. But hats off to Del Potro for coming back to the win the 2nd, even if he did lose the decider. Del Potro's resilience makes me think that the win over Rafa was more of a breakthrough than a fluke.

Novak has beaten two top opponents in a row who had winning streaks against him. Can he pull off a hat trick by beating Murray? Winning a Masters Series and beating three top guys who have had your number as of late, short of winning a Slam, it doesn't get better than that in tennis. After Novak's wretched form in Indian Wells, I would have given him zero chance of beating Murray in Miami. But Novak has gotten better and better with every round, and the way he overcame adversity in the semifinal is impressive. Despite Andy M's winning streak against Novak and hardcourt hot streak going back to last summer, I think the final is pretty even.

BSR - I thought it was a spot-on comment too. And I thought what might be happening these days is the reverse: does a coach want Federer? Meaning, do the high profile, "name" coaches want to invest time in Federer? Roger will be 28 in four months - it's not exactly a career that promises a long trajectory. The "name" coaches might be a lot more inclined to seek out someone like Grigor Dimitrov, who's got his whole tennis life ahead of him - which translates into better earnings potential for the coach. That could be what Cahill was thinking. His job as a developer for Adidas not only keeps him anchored in Las Vegas - he'll work as long as he wants. After all, there won't be a shortage of players Adidas will rep & send to him. Adidas offered Cahill long term job security.

In the larger scheme, Sergio Cruz (a tennis trainer with some impressive creds - I put a link to his resume at the end of his comments) posted commentary on another reason a coach might be less inclined to take Federer on. Cruz suggests Federer's problem is relatively simple: one of genuine optimum fitness (which Two Hander has been pointing out lately). Moreover, Cruz says Federer's underwhelming physical fitness has been a constant throughout his career - he just gets away with it much less these days. Which makes Federer similar to John McEnroe, who never saw the inside of a gym during his entire ATP career. Johnny Mac relied on his superior talent to get him through his matches, and it worked very well for him for about four years (1980-84). But by 1985 the New & Improved Ivan Lendl showed up having redefined fitness for tennis players, demonstrating what being optimally fit physically could do for you. It was then that McEnroe lost his #1 Ranking, and started his descent. You could say that's exactly what's happened to Federer with regard to Nadal, whose sheer physicality beats Federer into the ground. Roger has more talent. But Rafael has more strength.

Here are the Cruz comments:

Nothing is wrong with Federer. What everyone failed to notice is that Federer's physical conditioning and movement has 'never' been up to par with the demands of the game. Yes, movement. Whenever Federer is forced to run from side to side (which he does not like to do), the point generally ends in a mistake or a framed hit.

Between 2003 and 2007 Federer was able to get away with a mediocre physical condition, because most of his matches were a breeze, rarely contested. And everyone buckled and bowed to him without even considering what the possibilities were (on how to play him by exposing his mediocre conditioning). For almost 4 years the mediocre conditioning of Federer was thrown under the rug. Though players like Nalbandian where able to expose it clearly on many occasions, including Roland Garros 2006 where, if injury had not struck David, Roger was in for a major spanking! (Nalbandian was up a set and a break before his back gave out forcing him to quit the match).

Once the 'mononucleosis' struck, the framed hits (caused by Rogers extreme sideways head positioning) and the misses of 2002 came back to haunt Roger. If Roger really had a strong physical base he would be thriving today and problably even dominating once more.

Unfortunately that is not the case and apparently he was never willing to put in the work, so we see him falling like a house of cards in 3 set matches, showing efforts that do not justify such mental and phsysical tiredness!

Sergio Cruz credentials here: http://tenniscruz.com/content/view/210/84/

Sounds blasphemous, I know. But when you think about Federer's mediocre record in 5-Set matches, it could be that Cruz has a valid point. It's interesting Cruz mentions Nalbandian, one of the very few from Federer's generation who had a winning record against him up until the fall of 2006. And their H2H is still very close today, 10-8 in favor of Federer. The fitness regimen issue also might be why Federer doesn't want a coach, per se (or why a coach might not want him). No coach will improve any single shot Federer owns. All a coach will do with an already established player like Federer is make sure he's as physically fit & ready as he can be. No better example to see of this than Stefanki's very first pre-agreement directive to Roddick: lose 15 pounds. Roger doesn't need to learn how to hit any given shot - he already does that better than just about anyone. But if he's reluctant to do the physical training required to compete against the young fit guys today, then it's pretty clear any coach would be very reluctant to take him on. A coach has a greater stake in his own future with younger players because they can claim (rightly) to have been instrumental in shaping any improvements. With Federer, the downside from a coach's view is simple: if there's no improvement in Federer's storied form & results, it hurts a coach's resume for future work. With young players, a coach's job is to develop. With Federer, the coach's job would be to resuscitate, a much lower percentage play for the coach's future employment prospects. Especially if Federer is reluctant to put in the "Hard Yards" physically. So unless or until Federer's own initiative kicks in, he's likely to live the same fate as McEnroe did a generation earlier.

That's some interesting, great reading from both you guys. BSR, I don't think Djokovic's crowd obsession does him many favors right now. But as his career goes on, he could learn to ride the antagonism and perhaps support if he grows up and wises up. We've seen it happen before. He's very young. The thing is, he isn't as sharp as he was a year ago. So in a way he's benefiting from the fact that Federer is in freefall and only Murray and to a lesser degree Del Potro are really stepping up.

VM, as you note, those Cruz comments build from the basic thing I've been saying, and more pronouncedly recently, about Federer's fitness. I'm kind of surprised people don't remark on it more. (Did they yesterday? I haven't seen the match.) Even in the last year or two while it's been obvious that Federer has a bit of a belly, all the on-air talk is about his superior commitment to fitness. I chalk it up as just another example of all the smoke that's been blown up his ass, a phenomenon that isn't/wasn't a favor in the long run. Now the chubbiness has spread around from the front to the side and back. Roger still looks healthy and fit by most anyone's standards. But anyone whose weight goes up or down 5-10 pounds knows how important core fitness is to movement and shotmaking in tennis.

If Federer makes a genuine commitment to fitness, he has all the tools to claim a major or two or maybe even three in the next 2-4 years. This doesn't mean trying to be some muscled beast like Rafa or Verdasco. It means core exercises and agility and stretching -- stuff that doesn't have to be tortuous. Aside from Rafa, the rest of the tour isn't fully stepping up, but time is wasting. In the immediate future, family probably comes first and should. But once he's a father, he'd be smarter to play fewer of the nothing tournaments and really, really train for the tournaments that are important to him. Dubai Schmubai -- down the road, it's the young guns aiming for him in the early rounds of majors that will be a real challenge.

Instead of a coach, I think Federer most needs a trainer who won't take no for an answer, and a sports psychologist of some sort. Based on Cahill's comments during Federer-Nadal matches, I'm not sold that he had anything to add to Federer's gameplan. We've been hearing how he should play the net more and run around the backhand when returning serve for years now. Both things are easier said than done. Even in his subpar week in Miami, Nadal demonstrated that serve placement is his Ace in the hole at key moments.

What is up or down with Nadal anyway? I heard he made some remark about "personal" problems in his sour post-match press conference after the Del Potro loss. And then I read that Bodo was hinting he'd reveal the nature of the problem. I've missed most of this tournament because of work demands and would appreciate any details from you guys. This board is more reliable than most.

I'd only read someone's speculation on another blog post about it, so I can't vouch for any accuracy. But it seems to have to do with a rumor that his parents are splitting up. The only thing I did notice was during this entire Miami tournament, his dad & his uncle Miguel were sitting on one side of the stadium in one box, and Uncle Toni, Carlos Costa and the rest of his team were in another box in another location. That's way different than it was in Australia, when all of them were in the same box. That's the only thing I've read about it, and again, have no idea how true it is.

I might just be caught up on DVR'd matches.

Damn, I hope Roddick didn't watch the Fed lose to the Djoke, I'm sure he'd be wondering why the Fed couldn't have played like that against him, instead of saving such an atrocious game for the next round. The Fed seems like an absolutely different player when he plays someone he's owned, vs someone who's had any reason to make him nervous, these days. The Roddick match follwed by the Djoke match seemed to demonstrate this Dr. Jeckyll/Mr. Hyde transformation in the most pronounced fashion I've ever seen it.

It seemed that two years ago, when the Fed felt even remotely threatened by anyone (and it was really only Rafa and maybe young(er) Djoke at the time) he'd step it up and/or compete much tougher. Recently, it seems that when he meets players that have gotten into his head (with that list now including Murray and others applying for membership) he tends to "go away" quicker. The Big W last year seemed to be the turning point. While an exhausted and overwhelmed Murray didn't prove to be any kind of threat at the USO last year, he certainly has been this year. And although the AO this year was still a great final between Rafa and the Fed, the sets weren't as close, and the last set was an underwhelming 6-2 in favor of Rafa, as opposed to the epic 9-7 at the Big W last year. His match with Murray in Shanghai was a close 3 setter at the end of last year, and that may seem to counter my argument, but if you look at this year, the sets that Murray has won in those three setters have been much more in his favor (one being 6-3, the others being 6-2 or 6-1).

Fed was embarrassingly out of sorts against Nole here. I've never seen all his strokes abandon him so fully...ever. Not to impune the Djoke too harshly, but I don't think he had to do all that much to beat the Fed in that match, and to be honest, I don't think he really did do all that much other than get the ball back, with very sparse smatterings of cute brilliance. (I still believe there's something in his head bothering him about the new racket, even if his body seems OK with it, another story for another thread sometime....)

Like many of us said back in the Cahill thread, the Fed just doesn't want a coach. Consciously or subconsciously, I just don't think he wants one. I think anyone could read this between the lines in his ever-growing grouchiness in press conferences.

Yes, Fed looks a little bit heavy. I remember last year at this time his "winter-weight" was evident as well, but I don't remember him looking this pronounced in his midsection at the same time last year. I hope "the back" didn't become the excuse for him to look this out of shape. (BTW, did anyone else catch the quotes around 'mononucleosis' in the Cruz article that voicemale was good enough to post? )

I think the Fed needs a coach, for a "reality inventory" if nothing else. Although one could whip him into working on his fitness and looking into his head, even one who could just tell him the hard facts, as they are, could do him a world of good. Someone needs to sit him down and tell him he's become an out-of-shape, competitively weaker, racket-breaking, crying-after-losing, bad-to-worse-press-giving, sore( r )-loser over the last year.


I'm not sure what was in Rafa's head against Del Potro. When he went up 3-0, two breaks, in that 3rd set, he should have run away with it. But like the Fed, his forehand literally went away, unexplainably. All his forehands sailed so long for like three games in a row. It was mystifying. The errors shot through the roof. In typical Rafa fashion, he fought back, and made sure things went to a tiebreaker, but after such a lead, Rafa would have made damn sure it wouldn't have gone that far when playing like usual. Even though Rafa won his second Indian Wells recently, I'm still convinced he's still not all that comfortable on US hardcourts. His record would seem to corroborate this, but there appeared to be something more to it with the meltdown against Del Potro. I don't know about any of the rumors, so I won't try to attach them to this match, but unless there's a huge issue with his personal life or physical condition, I have a feeling that Rafa will right this ship in the clay court season.

I should think Murray would have no problem with Nole in the final at this point, but after witnessing the past few days of matches, anyone would be hard pressed to explain many things that've happened. But I'll stick with a Murray prediction here.

great point, VM, that coaches with the proper CV would have little to gain from taking on Federer. Hey, I don't know the guy so I could be totally wrong about this, but I get the impression that from a coach's point of view, Roger just screams "High Maintenance," or perhaps "Difficult Diva." Plus, you gotta think that any coach Fed hires is always just one bad loss away from getting sh*tcanned. Any top coach has plenty of other options. So yeah, who would you rather take on: Grigor "Abs of Steel" Dimitrov, young and hungry and eagerly listening to everything you say? or Roger "Michelin Man" Federer, who deep down thinks he's forgotten more about the game than you'll ever know?

I've read elsewhere that Federer didn't shake the umpire's hand. Unfortunately, I've already deleted my tivo of the match, so I can't verify. But if it's true, WTF is up with that? The racket-mangling didn't bother me a bit. Marat Safin's broken enough rackets in his career to keep a whole factory going. But not shaking the umpire's hand is just poor form. And what exactly did the umpire do that was so horrible?

Tennis Guy, the reason I'm thinking the final is a pick 'em is just what you said, that the theme this year at Key Biscayne is "Expect the Unexpected." Sure, on paper Andy M is a clear pick over Novak. But so were JW and Roger. Plus I'm thinking that Murray's loss of the 2nd set against Del Potro gives Novak a lot of hope. Del Potro played well, but it's not like he had to play out of his mind to wrest a set away from Andy. If JMDP can win one set against Andy, Novak is certainly capable of winning two.

Edited to add: Just saw on the tennis.com highlights that Roger did indeed walk right past the umpire w/o shaking his hand
So Rog, tell me, how exactly is it the umpire's fault that you played like a whole stockyard's worth of sh*t??

He's pregnant!

Two-Hander: the only commentary during a match regarding Federer's lack of fitness was not in Miami, but during the Austrailian Open Final that Tennis Channel broadcast after the live ESPN telecast was completed. Both Martina & Gimelstob commented that in the 8th (and final) game of the 5th Set, Federer double faulted, neither serve getting over the net. They knew enough to know he was tired, and he'd lost his leg strength.

Rudy - you might be right on the coach's view on Federer as a client. It was Peter Lundgren, who had Federer when his rise started and then took over Safin when he & Federer parted, who made that plainly known. Some reporter had asked him something to the extent that he must be feeling much more crazed now that he had Safin as opposed to Federer. His reply was, "You know, you'd think it would be Marat who was the real head case between the two, but it's not true. It's the other way around". Now, take that with a grain of salt, as it might have been just sour grapes on Lundgren's part. But given that Federer has been through two coaches since then, maybe Lundgren knew what he was talking about. Ironic that it was Roche who'd re-invented Lendl with the training regimen that made him who he was, the very Roche Federer had employed, and released.

Tennis Guy - Again, I'm not sure Federer will want any coach, or trainer who won't take no for an answer to whip him into shape because he has all of those around him now. He has a "coach" in this Luti guy, and a couple of guys around him already taking care of him physically. He's a natural talent for the game, like McEnroe, who feels like that ought to be enough..still. If Cruz is correct, and Federer hasn't put in the work to get here, it's tough for me to see him changing now with his baby on the way. His child's birth will not make him want to spend ample time in a gym or on a practice court more. If anything, he'll be less likely to go there once the kid gets here.

Rudy, I think I can kind of explain the umpire thing. I'm pretty sure the umpire was Fergus Murphy. The day before, Murphy had pissed off Rafa, who rarely shows resentment towards officials. And in Indian Wells, he enraged Ljubicic, a longtime friend of Federer's who was once the ATP's players' leader. So when Murphy did something that bothered Federer, he probably wanted to show the disgruntlement or lack of respect for Murphy that might be circulating. Not justifying it, but I think that might be the background. Correct me if I'm wrong about this, anyone -- as Dusty sings (words by Randy Newman), I've been wrong before.

While Federer's not fit and still holding on to denial based on press remarks, I still think he change things. Maybe he really needs to act out more and bottom out (pardon the phrasing). He's had some extremely rough losses in the last year and now is entering fatherhood. So he's going through some stuff -- but he can come out of it.

If that Nadal rumor has any truth to it, it's rough news for him on the court as well, because his uncommonly united family seems a real foundation of his strength.

What the f*ck is your problem? Did Roger kick your dog?
Jesus, the anti-Roger venom on this board is reaching all new and ridiculous levels. After all he's done for tennis, is it really necessary to pummel him into the ground when he's obviously going through a career crisis?

Snicks it's always darkest before the dawn.

Federer will play great tennis again. But the darkness might last a while.

There's just a lot of talk because he's cracked right now and acting out. Carillo was interesting yesterday when they reran part of the semi and bits of the press conference. It's obvious she thinks he's in trouble attitude-wise, but she, like others on air, doesn't feel it's her place to be brutally candid. Maybe because the current situation is something he has to figure out for himself. And that only he can figure out because he's the one and only. As a player, he does need help though, and seems really stubborn about admitting it. But at the moment, his crisis is reaching semis, not plummeting the way Sampras did -- before coming back.

So he lost a few matches?! Geez. That's tennis. No one can win all the time.