The Draw is out.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/tennis/en/comm...009/416/mds.pdf

LOL, the draw should be called Monte Carlo II. With the exception of Del Potro and Verdasco seemingly swapping places, all the big names landed in almost the exact same places as a couple weeks ago.

What's really funny is that there are actually three Americans in the draw - Blake, Fish and Querry - and they all landed squarely in the Nadal Quarter . Welcome to Rome, James, Mardy and Sam! The rest of Nadal's Quarter looks manageable, since the Seeds here, Blake, Tsonga & Verdasco all play better on hard courts. Although Andreev, who holds the distinction of being one of Nadal's three conqueror's on clay within the last 4 years is in this section too. Having gone out to Ferrero early last year, Rome this year holds virtually all upside to Nadal this time around.

The Murray Quarter looks easy for him until the Quarters, where he'll get his mettle tested by either Gonzalez or Davydenko. He did get by Davydenko in Monte Carlo, although barely so. And that was when they had to double up on matches there, and even that favored Murray. Andy finished one set against Fognini, whilst Kolya had to play a full match early. Given Nikolay is 27 and had been away for months, look for him to be much more formidable to Murray if they meet here. And the Gonzo Forehand could pose a lot of problems for the Murray backhand. Tough section for Murray to negotiate.

Djokovic got the best Quarter, with Wawrinka and JMDP his biggest threats and he should be able to run rings around both.

And Roger has a lot of tricky matches ahead, with three guys who've beaten him recently, including two who've beaten him here in Rome the last two years: Volandri and Stepanek. Simon hasn't lost to him, but has been stinking up the courts recently with some lousy results - he might want the hard court season to arrive. And when you add in the maddeningly inconsistent Berdych who pushed Federer to five sets in Australia, and David Ferrer - you get the idea that Roger will have to work some to get through this one if any one of these guys is firing.

Don't forget Fish! He's in that same quarter. It was around this time last year that the Americans looked almost good on clay with Querry making the QF in Monte Carlo and other smattering successes...just to have reality set in at the FO. At least Odesnik made it to the 3rd round last year.



One would think Tsonga and Verdasco would be better on clay because of where they grew up, but I think Verdasco could be the scariest...still waiting for him to get back to that AO level, though.



Davy did quite a bit better than I thought he would in Monte Carlo and Barcelona. For being out with an injury as long as he was, he did quite well losing to Murray in the QF and Rafa in the SF, respectively, in those tournaments. I suspect if Murray and Davy get through, their QF would be even closer than Monte Carlo's.



JMDP has to prove that his win over Rafa wasn't a fluke. Beating the Djoke would help in that regard. Too up in the air right now, as the Djoke is 2-0 vs JMDP, but both were on hard courts. I wonder if the gluteually-gifted Wawrinka would be more of a threat to the Djoke than JMDP, seeing as how he's beaten the Djoke before (although back in '06) and the momentum he has.

Federer will continue to be his own worst enemy, seeing Karlovic early on could be a scare, even though the dirt takes away some of the the big guy's big weapon. If Karlovic booms them consistently to the Fed's backhand, and they find themselves in a tiebreaker situation, I wouldn't necessarily give the Fed the edge. If the Fed breaks the big guy, then I do. Simon of last year might have been a threat, this year, hardly. I don't have high hopes of Gilles Muniz even making to the QFs to possibly face the Fed. The Fed's never lost to Ferrer, and the way the Ferrer's been, I don't expect him to start anytime soon. Stepanek, Berdych? Meh. Unless the Fed is wildly out-of-sorts (read: in Miami vs the Djoke) I don't see him having a tough time out of his quarter. The way things are going, it would be the Djoke he'd have to worry about in the semis, seeing as how the Djoke is apparently getting his act together, now, on the dirt.

Where is Roddick?

Surely a Roman honeymoon has some appeal

If Djokovic doesn't defend his title, Murray becomes the #3 player in the world.

Robredo looks good in his retro outfit. I really like those short shorts.

I forgot how handsome Volandri is. It is too bad that he lost to Fognini.

Agreed re: the retro short shorts. What a fresh change on cute Tommy.

My my, the seeded casualties after the 2nd Round are truly puzzling. Not so much Murray - whose junk balling is proving out to be only really threatening on the consistent bouncing hard courts. Even Tsonga's exit isn't all that shocking since he's also better on a hard court. But clay court stalwarts like Davydenko & Ferrer ending up on the Exit List? Oy vay. And welcome back Reeeshard Gasket! Two winning matches in the same day!! So, I wonder: will Alex Corretja now lose his job as a Murray Advisor on Clay Court Excellence? Will Ernests Gulbis be cut off from his family's multi-billion dollar oil fortune long enough to get ravenously hungry about winning matches?

Grudge Match Alert Tomorrow: Nadal vs. Soderling & Federer vs. Stepanek.

Nadal kicked Soderling's bratty ass today. He was out to prove a point by only allowing Soderling a single game. Revenge is sweet. Soderling has regularly been rude to Federer too -- he's just an overpaid underachiever who got what was coming to him.

Federer's next match and the one after that should he win will be interesting. Stepanek was in goofball entertainer mode today, charging the net almost every damn point. But it did look like Federer was hitting the forehand much better. His serve % wasn't so good though. And his floaty return of serve would be trouble should he face Djokovic, who moves his serve around with good disguise.

I'm looking forward to Djokovic-Del Potro to see how far Juan Pony has come along and how far he has to go.

It's bumming me out to see Gilles Simon in utter freefall. Mischa Zverev has a unique game though.

For anyone who cares: 90-second Nadal Rome clip that combines the best point of a match with a funny example of his OCD eccentricity.

What makes the score line more amazing are the stats of the match. The match went on for 84 minutes. Nadal served at a measly 57% First Serve Percentage, yet won more points on his second serve than his first. Nadal saved all 5 Break Points against him, including one game where Soderling had 0-40 on Nadal's serve. Its one thing to get kicked this embarrassingly when a guy is playing "Lights Out" tennis. But Nadal's serving was below par and faced a lot of break points he had to save with his second serve, and threw in two Double Faults to boot. It's hardly Lights Out stuff. What this all indicates is the sheer ruthlessness of Nadal's ground strokes. Soderling had more than a few chances. Time for Sodering to start an Ice Castle Farm is Stockholm

I finally understand what makes me less than 100% committed to Federer as a tennis fan, and it's exemplified in comments like these below after losing to Djokovic. I get the point that losses for him, given the rarified air he's been in for six years, are doubly troubling. It not only hurts his pride and confidence, but he has to deal with the incessant press making him feel like he's failing them when he loses a match. But still, these comments about Nadal after his Djokovic match are plainly absurd. In italics I put what the obvious follow-up questions should have been, but weren't asked.

“I think the last few years it's helped Rafa playing me before Paris.” (Uh..ok..how?) "Just that he knew maybe a bit more what to expect from me, whereas you know exactly what you're going to get with Rafa. (Uh..Then if you always knew "exactly" what you were going to get and you still keep losing to him..doesn't that make you look, well, a wee bit dumb?) So I think it maybe worked more in his favour the last few years (Uh..Well I guess it would, if you knew "exactly" what to expect and you just keep letting him do it, dontcha think?). We'll see how Madrid turns out (Oh, is there a new plan in the works?). If we have to play each other, I still think it's a great match and I would look forward to that. But the focus is elsewhere right now." (Uh..the focus is on somewhere other than your greatest bane in tennis..why??? - and where exactly is the focus?? Is it on the baby, or on Mirka's ballooning size??)

I can understand most of this next paragraph, but note the very last sentence (italics are mine), which people like Sergio Cruz & Robert Landsdorp have publicly started sounding off about Federer's lack of a fitness work ethic:

“At the end, it's always disappointing for me when I exit a tournament losing a match,” concluded Federer, who has not lifted a trophy since his “home” tournament in Basle last November. “I've gotten used to winning tournaments and then leaving a tournament having lost just leaves a bitter taste, obviously. It doesn't take me long to get over it, but in the moment itself it's just not really fun, because it's just these kind of matches I feel like I should have won here and I end up losing them, so it's just not a good feeling. It's just a matter of getting back in shape and playing good hopefully in Madrid again.” This just about says it all.

It's stuff like this that only serves to make him look like a twit - which he isn't. Someone needs to advise him to just be gracious in his losses, praise the winner even if he felt he lost it, and he'll come across much better.

Having said that, mega kudos to Djokovic. It's true that Federer made too many errors and served poorly (again), but Djokovic kept his composure to rescue the match twice in each of the sets he won. And he does have a chance tomorrow against Nadal. He can withstand the Topspin Punishment to the backhand better than most everyone else. But Djokovic must win the first set to have a hope of ending this quickly before Nadal gets in the groove. If it turns into a test of stamina, then Nadal will squeeze the very last bit out of his lungs. Three sets, all of them tight.

I'm just happier than heck that Novak is finally hitting well again after what seemed to be an interminable adjustment period to that new racket. There were times post-switch when Novak couldn't even keep a backhand in play, a stroke with rock-solid mechanics. The iffier forehand? Aaaaaiiiieeeee!! It was just as likely to land in the stands as it was inside the court. But Novak has been striking the ball beautifully in Rome. Even in the 1st set, which Novak lost, he looked pretty sharp.

This is the kind of loss that's a body-blow to a player's confidence. Worse yet, this match knocks Roger down yet one more peg, even if by only the eensiest of increments, in the minds of the rest of the players. Rafa never gives up hope when playing Roger (or anyone else for that matter). Murray always plays Fed with that attitude, and now Novak joins the ranks. The last thing Fed needs is for the likes of Verdasco, Tsonga, Del Potro et al to start thinking, "don't lose hope ... never give up ... you never know" when they're playing him.

On the other side of the net, coming back from a set down and a break down in both Sets 2 and 3 will do wonders for Novak's confidence. Mind you, he'll need every bit of that confidence boost to beat Rafa tomorrow. But Novak has played better and better with every match so far in Rome, and there's still room for improvement (50% 1st serve percentage, for one). He won a set off Rafa in Monte Carlo, and the Foro Italico courts are the fastest clay courts on tour. Rafa's still the strong favorite, but hey, crazier things have happened.

SPOILER!!!

I miss the best-of-five format for (some of) the finals of the masters events. Are there any ATP tour events left where they hold best-of-five finals? Kudos to Nadal. He's still the king.

The trophy ceremony with these two was really endearing.

And the choice of post-match stadium music the last two days has been hilarious. "YMCA" after Djokovic's chest-beating when he won against Federer. "Macho Man" the second after Nadal fell to his knees upon winning match point today.

Since there has been no tennis broadcasts in my area since the Australian Open, I haven't heard any comments about Nadal's change of clothing style. What happened to the sleeveless shirts? I liked that look. I thought the clamdiggers were silly, so I am glad he has pants just a little shorter. But was there a reason? And does he still pick at his ass?

Didn't get coverage of the match, but now Nadal has put an even stronger strangle-hold on the #1 ranking, and Murray passes the Djoke for #3. And interesting how now it seems there's a battle going on for #2 between the Fed, Murray and the Djoke.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/tennis/1/en/ne...rticle_3289.asp

The most interesting statistical tidbit, IMO, in that article is what the players have done just in 2009:

1) Rafa 4,605
2) Andy 2,980
3) Djoky 2,420
4) Feddy 2,100
5) Roddy 2,000

Speaks volumes about how well Rafa and Murray have started the year, and just how much the Fed's struggled.

It makes me chuckle at how when Rafa took over number one last year, people (who really didn't understand the rankings) were saying how he'd only hold the ranking for 3-6 months. Well, he's passed 9 months (37 weeks as of now, and counting) and should stay there for quite some time barring something bizarre, even with all the points he has to defend. He'll be hovering around a 5000 point lead over "the pack" when the rankings come out next week.

A lot of people believed the Fed would get back to #1. Hey stranger things have happened, but if Rafa did lose a pile of points not being able to defend any of his amazing FO/Big W/and-most-everything-around-them points from last year, I'm definitely not seeing the Fed as the person who would surpass him if that unlikely event were to occur.

Nadal looks to be assured the year end #1 Ranking if he successfully defends the French Open, which is looking pretty good. Wimbledon & Queens are also there for him to defend, but given that he's been a Finalist at Wimbledon for the last 3 years, he looks a good bet to go deep again, even if he doesn't win it. Once Wimbledon is over, it's Murray & Federer who have tons of points to defend from the hard court through the indoor season. In fact, given Federer's tenuous clay results this year, his defense of a Final appearance at Roland Garros is looking very shaky right now. Nadal has a Title to defend in Toronto, and Semi Finals in both Cincinnati & The US Open. So he has to do well in 3 tournaments in 6 weeks, which seems a lot less strenuous than winning the three clay titles he just won in three weeks.

Murray has a lot more at stake: Title in Cincinnati, Finalist at the US Open, he won Madrid on a hard court (what happens to those points?) and his YEC Points. He has a lot to defend and not all that much room to gain, unless he runs the table for the last five months of the year. Djokovic, given how well he's playing now, is the one who actually has the most room to gain. He has all upside at Wimbledon after losing in the 2nd Round last year, and could improve on a QF in Toronto, and looks pretty good to sustain a Final in Cincinnati and US Open Semi. He could actually do a little better all around. He does however have to defned his YEC Title.

Federer is the one with the most points at stake from now through the US Open. He failed to sustain his points from Monte Carlo's Final, and bypassed Estoril losing those points also. He made a slight gain this year by going to the Rome Semi. But with Finals to defend in the next 4 Majors, given how shaky he's looked this year, he's a very tenuous bet to hold on to the #2 ranking by years end.

So despite how ho-hum the eventual outcome of the tourney seemed, I think there are a few things worth observing. The first is that Rafa has just won three events on the trot at what has been nothing close to approaching his FO 2008 form, with the loss of one set. But Rome still did show signs of his stepping it up a notch: he gave up only six or games or less in each round until the final. And even in the final, against an opponent who dragged him into a three-hour, three-set battle of attrition a fortnight ago, he gave up just eight games (and if he had closed out a 6-3, 6-4 or 7-5 first set like he had ample opportunity of doing, it would have been less).

I'm also noticing that, due to contrast of styles and the challenges posed, Rafa has some pretty excellent matches against the rest of the Top 4. Even yesterday's final was some gripping stuff until the wheels fell off for Djoko at 3-2 in the second. Meanwhile, Fed has now cemented losing streaks against the rest of the Top 4 - but I still say that no matter how many times he concedes two sets, in the Slams it's still a mountain to climb to get that third set from him (as not-so-helpfully demonstrated by the likes of Berdych and Andreev recently). He's a lock for the semis at least in Paris in my view, where he will be unable to avoid the rest of the Top 4 any longer, presumably, but will also be gunning to strike back at them.

I really have no idea what to expect for Madrid. Rafa and Djoko might be excused for phoning it in there, having already made their presence felt recently, and the high altitude might make Murray a little less ineffectual on clay (even as his learning curve continues to smooth out on the stuff). And Fed might want to make a statement to keep himself firmly in the conversation as the year's second Slam approaches.