It's a bit early still, as the draw doesn't come out for a few days, but is Rafa entered or not? Bodo mentioned something about Rafa's possible withdrawal from the event, which I took with a grain of salt. But a quick check on the tournament website reveals Rafa is nowhere to be found on the players list. If the Rome final is any indicator, clearly Rafa is fit, so he can't use injury as an excuse. Isn't the Madrid Masters mandatory? So is Rafa just going to pay the fine and forfeit the chance at an easy (for him) 1,000 ranking points? Anyone know what the story is here??

He is playing, according to his website. He's traveling there tomorrow from Majorca for a bunch of promo work prior, but he is going to play. Way back at Indian Wells he said he was only 50-50 to play there because the altitude wouldn't be ideal for him to prepare for the French Open, but he won his three clay events without playing at 100%. Maybe he's not as fatigued as he thought he might have been otherwise, so he decided to suit up.

EDITED TO ADD: Brad Gilbert was saying Nadal has a chance at a piece of history he could call his own in Madrid. If he wins the tournament, Nadal would be the first man to win three straight ATP Masters Series Events in the same calendar year. So maybe that's another reason he decided to play.

The Draw is out.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/tennis/en/comm...09/1536/mds.pdf

One strange thing about the draw: there are 10 Spaniards in it, 9 of them are in the top half, and 7 of them landed in the Nadal Quarter! Only Tommy Robredo escaped any possibility of early matches against fellow countrymen. The reverse is true for the Americans: three of the four are in the bottom half, with only Sam Querry in the Top half. The bottom half also features another name on the comeback trail: Mario Ancic, who's scheuled to face Berdych in his opener.

And speaking of the Nadal Quarter, he's got a couple of potential new shooters he hasn't met on clay this year: Marin Cilic, and early on he could meet Jurgen Melzer, who played pretty well in Rome. But given how Nadal's played this year on clay, it's hard not to see him coming through since he pretty much owns all the Spaniards in his draw. Altitude or no, he's the guy to beat for all of it.

Nadal would be scheduled to meet Djokovic in the Semis, which he should. Djokovic also looks likely to get through his Quarter - but he has guys in it that could make for some long days - like Seppi, Stepanek, Tsonga and Simon. And given he's playing his own tournament now leading right into this, he could start to get a little leg weary by the business end of this tournament. But he's the 2nd best guy on clay this year.

Murray's Quarter. Hmm. Still not convinced he'll make much headway on clay in his career, and Stan, Robredo or Berdych could seriously get to him. I'd say Del Potro too, but a big guy like him trying to change directions on a slippery surface is vulnerable. Given that Murray developed his ATP level game in Spain as a kid, the fact that he hasn't done much on clay by this point is a pretty good indication that he's either gonna have to learn a lot, or just phone this part of the season in and concentrate on the hard courts.

Federer - good news and bad news for him. The good news is he has the seeded Americans in his Quarter, which guarantees him a win if they get to him. The bad news is that Andreev and Davydenko are extremely capable dirtballers. Which wouldn't matter much if Federer was the usual Federer. Since he's not these days, either of them have enough clay court game to send him home. Should he get through all that, and if Murray survives his section, this is where Roger will get his sweet revenge. Murray's attempts to junk ball Federer will fail on clay, and I'd excpect a serious beat down of Murray by Federer if they met in the Semis.

Madrid Musings:

*CATFIGHT ALERT: Despite a heavily skewed and inaccurate headline attempting to scathe Djokovic for his comments on the Ranking System, Murray couldn't resist commenting on Djokovic's misrepresented words. Djokovic called the ranking system "cruel", but Djokovic's point was that his current A-Plus form is relevant, despite the rankings. Murray replied, "The ranking system is fine, it's just been a problem for Novak in the last 3 weeks" Meeeeeowwwwwwww

*Speaking of Djokovic, he's continuing the winning, which is good. Given his great run through the Clay Season this year, he has a right to look a little dull like he did today. Maybe he should have reconsidered doing all the Doubles Play he's been doing this season, or maybe he's just gearing down for what lies ahead: that thing named Grendel Nadal . He gets the winner of Ljubicic (continuing his rejuvenated career) and Simon (who's locks and sideburns have grown so much that you'd think he'd been a desert island castaway for the last six months), who are just now entering Set Three.

*Speaking of Murray, he's moving through the draw, even though he's working harder in his matches than The Other Three. Next up for him is bitter enemy Stretch Del Potro, who made sure Stanley ran out of Steam. If he gets by that one to Federer, it will be a match Federer could hardly wait for, I would think. After four straight losses to Murray Federer will be itching to pound him into the dirt.

*The "other" Andy, and Rafael get a pass into the Quarters when their opponents - Davydenko & Kohlschreiber, respectively - had issues in their left legs. No word on whether they sustained those injuries in the same location by undertaking the same activity . Roddick (who seems to have found all that weight he'd lost at the start of the year, a typical side effect of matrimony) now inherits Federer, and get this: in 19 career meetings, this will be their very first match on clay! Nadal, who played his service games so fast in his match with Melzer you'd have thought he was double-parked, gets either Verdasco or Monaco who play tonight. There was also some catfighting on a minor scale started by Verdasco to Nadal (these two don't have a lot of love lost between them). Nadal wasn't crazy about the "blue clay", saying some traditions in tennis were worth preserving. Afterward, Verdasco immediately countered about how much he really liked the blue clay, and thought it should be implemented ASAP. Meeeowww

*Federer looked good, but often did so because Blake showed once again he's not the most intelligent player out there. Showing no respect or even the slightest consideration for the surface, Blake continued to plant himself squarely on top of the base line on the Return and became both puzzled and dejected when his uber-flat shots were flying long. I guess you could say Blake sticks to his guns, even when they backfire on him

Good grief. I checked in on the tennis and Simon was coasting 6-3, 4-2 with a point to go up a double break for 5-2. (He also had an extraordinary case of bed-head. He looked like he should be clad in his undies in the kitchen, making us both a batch of early morning coffee. Wait, where was I?) Now I see that he must have instead lost four games in a row and contrived to lose in three sets to Ljubicic, who although tricky on clay of late (reaching the Monte Carlo quarters if I recall) had been thoroughly down and out in the match. Simon has lost to anyone with a pulse this year, despite a strong start with the AO QF result, and he's pretty much run out of time to build up a points buffer for when it comes time to defend this summer, starting with the Indy title. Le sigh. Maybe he will find a way to be less than useless at the FO and Wimby, but I doubt it on this form.

I'm vastly amused that Fed drew Blake and Roddick on clay, basically a golden ticket to the semifinals. I'm starting to think he's going to win this one against an exhausted Rafa or Djoko, unless Murray can make him crack somehow (not likely on clay).

Simon's losses are bumming me out. But you're right Urban, that hair of his today was amazing.

Plus he often looks kind of excited when he's playing if you catch my drift.

He sure is looking great. He better start winning matches so we can keep seeing him play.

I guess Murray-Del Potro is the match of the quarters. Not sure who to root for there. I want Del Potro to break through a bit more this year, but not if that means he'll be roadkill in the semis.

I started worrying about Gilles Simon after that disastrous Dubai semifinal. Novak was absolutely awful. His forehand was spraying all over the court, and even his backhand was faltering. But the scary thing was that he still won. Gilles, who had so much success in 2008 mostly because of his mental toughness, was a mental midget in that match. Now after being up a set and a break, with a BP for 2 breaks, Simon lets the match go? I can't say I share the same impure thoughts for Gilles as some others here, but I'm a fan because I like players who win with their mind as much as with their racket. That's why I was such a Wilander fan. Who knows what's going on with Gilles, but recent results are cause for worry.

Two-hander, why would Del Potro necessarily be roadkill in the semis? Even though clay isn't the big guy's best surface, he seems to move OK on the red stuff. Granted, even a "struggling" Federer has to be favored over JMDP, but Fed hasn't exactly been invincible this season. At the start of the tournament, I thought Novak had a cupcakey draw. Yeesh, his quarter is a veritable mine field compared to Roger's Cupcake Hall of Fame. If Andy R somehow some way upsets Roger Federer tomorrow (their first match ever on red clay), I will strip naked and skinnydip in the Bellagio fountains.

Hey Rudy, I guess we're going to find out if I'm right or wrong, since Del Potro beat Murray.

I want to be wrong, because I'd also be right. Meaning that I'd touted Del Potro's clay form at the start of the season, and (before Djokovic reasserted himself) even suggested he had a decent chance of being the second best player on the surface. Thus far, he's isn't impressed me. He hasn't been playing with the focus or the power he brought to his Davis Cup clay obliteration of Davydenko and Ljubicic last year. But he could be slowly gaining form to peak at Roland Garros. Certainly he's gotta be carrying some momentum from finally beating Murray. (I haven't seen the match.)

I was skeptical about Juan Martin's chances against Federer because Federer has flagrantly toyed with him and even outright humiliated him when they've played. Maybe it won't be as easy on clay, where the Federer slice isn't going to slice Del Potro up as obviously. And three sets against Roddick on clay really has me wondering about Federer's form. Definitely looking forward to both semis tomorrow.

I think one thing is clear after today: Djokovic really is the World #3 right now. He's much better on both clay and grass than Murray, whose junk-balling game I'd thought wasn't going to be treated kindly by the dodgy-bouncing surfaces. I predict he doesn't go past the Quarters at the French. And he should be careful about expending a lot of energy at this point in the year. He's got plenty to defend once Wimbledon is behind him - where he also has yet to get past the Quarters.

Roddick had more than a few chances to actually take out Federer today. Watching that match you just had to feel for Andy - all the ugly errors precisely at the moment when he had the chance to put Federer in some real deep water. If Roddick would have learned how to slide, instead of trying to run over the top of the clay while trying not to slip, it would have helped him enormously. He folded in the 3rd Set - but he had his chances, especially when you consider he's played only one match in six weeks prior to today.

Federer should handle Del Potro. That said, Stretch played very well against Murray, doing a LOT more scrambling with great results than I thought someone his size could do on clay. Some sharp hard groundstrokes right into Federer's Forehand could get him a lot of points.

And what's left to say about another seemingly impossible rescue of a match by Nadal? I'm trying to remember, and I go back a while , when I've seen another pro will himself back into a set or match that looks hopelessly lost, and then take it, as often as Rafael. I can't think of one. Connors was excellent at it, but he didn't manage it as often. You could just tell when Nadal held in the 2nd Set to get to 1-4 that in his mind & heart he knew he could pull this set out. He never lost faith that he had it in him to do it. And that he was able to beat Verdasco in straight sets while posting some very un-Nadal like numbers (14 Winners to 28 Unforced Errors) should be extremely unsettling to everybody else. Because if he cleans that up, you'd have to think they have virtually no chance against him.

I wouldn't write off Del Potro here, simply because I don't trust Federer's form at all. The players beaten on red dirt this year are mostly guys who are better on other surfaces or just not that good period. He lost both the matches he's played to competent clay courters, and Wawrinka hasn't even been that great. The players he's beaten:

Seppi
Karlovic
Stepanek
Zverev
Soderling
Blake
Roddick

And as Twohander has said, losing a set to Roddick on clay doesn't inspire confidence. I'd say the Djoker is looking like #2 this year, at least on clay. Maybe we'll see tomorrow if there's anybody in the field who can give Rafa an interesting match.

I can't figure out if JMDP actually moves well or if he just moves so much better than you'd think for a guy with his build. One thing I'm sure about is he is a much better claycourter than expected. With those hard, flat strokes, you'd think he'd have a tough time with the consistency necessary on clay. But no, that would be Andy Murray. Wow, the guy's just not the same player on the red stuff. At least he's won a few matches on the surface in 2009, which is a heckuva lot better than last year. I can see voicemale's point about the unsure bounce, but I also think it has something to do with Murray's movement. It looks like Andy still hasn't learned to move correctly on the dirt. Just looked up the Sanchez Casal site, and they do have 8 hardcourts. Maybe Andy M just avoided the 13 claycourts like the plague.

When I read about Rafa's miracle comeback against Verdasco, I assumed that monster topspin blasted Verdasco off the court. But this was almost like a Michael Chang type victory, i.e., Rafa got so many balls back (but unlike Chang, Rafa eventually and inevitably blasts a monster winner) that Verdasco kinda freaked out and started going for way too much. Fernando had 43 unforced errors in the match, and it felt like 42 of those were after he was up 4-love in the 2nd set.

I'm with you, JC. I'm giving Del Potro a chance too, if for no other reason than Fed's form ain't all that. For a guy who supposedly couldn't wait to get off the hardcourts, Roger hasn't exactly been setting the world of terre battue on fire.

Ridiculous match.

Hats off to Novak.

Damn, Rafa is stingy.

Unbelievable match. Djokovic cramping but never ever yielding. Nadal saving Match Points with two of the gutsiest winners you'll see. Especially that one down the line in the Deuce Court. Taking the ball at above-the-head-height with his forehand he just rips it down the line for a stone cold winner. The match of the year.

Another great match I couldn't watch because of lack of coverage. I'm tempted to dump cable (for TV anyway) and get satellite so I can get the tennis channel.

I guess the Djoke not quitting is a good sign, but it will be more impressive if he stays with it in five tough sets...which he's done before, like at the USO a couple years ago. It's odd that when he had chances to take over the #2 spot, he played like he was #4. Now that he's slipped to #4, he's actually playing more like the #2 player in the world.

Rafa will need rest, but he's so fit. In so many tournaments, when he's had some rough and long late rounds, and the Fed has cake-walked to the finals (and once again, JMDP made sure that waltz stays the same for the Fed), Rafa often looked even fresher than the Fed in the final.

It seemed the past few years that the Fed and Rafa were just expected to meet in the FO finals, and that's been the case, because if any other players were on any kind of roll around that time, they were never really considered too threatening on clay. Now the Djoke can disrupt that formula and rightly so...it's never been much of a worry where the #3 and #4 seeds landed at the FO, until now. Now you know Rafa and the Fed are hoping to get Murray in their respective semi, and that that "the other guy" gets stuck with the Djoke in his semi.

a heartbreaking loss for Novak (only the 2nd time he's cried after losing a match, AFAIK), but after all the emotions subside, I hope he looks back on this match with a cool head and feels pretty damn proud of himself. The level of play was excellent in the 2nd and 3rd sets (Novak was great in the 1st, but Rafa was a bit off). And in that final tiebreak, the quality of the match went off the charts. When Rafa hit that superhigh forehand winner to save the 1st match point, my jaw crashed through the floorboards. Rafa came up with great serves on most of the break points against and some SICK play on those match points. Novak didn't really do anything wrong to lose that match. Rafa was just too, well, Rafa in the end. Talk of Rafa as the GOAT is a bit premature. Let's wait at least until he hits double digits in Slam singles titles. But there is no doubt in my mind that Rafa is already the greatest claycourter of all time (no disrespect, Bjorny). I just hope Rafa bounces back 100% tomorrow so he can spank Roger's bare bottom in front of 12,500 of his countrymen.

YYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!

that is all.

Congrats Snicks.

Federer played such a smart match today. He used to think running around the backhand and hitting drop shots was beneath him. Now he's forcing Rafa to not take things for granted.

Madrid is different from Roland Garros but this makes the French so much more interesting.

is anyone watching the ceremony? it's hilarious. The streamers and confetti went off right behind dinara and roger on the podium scaring the shit out of them.
oh, and why is Hilary Swank in the ceremony?

Rogelio!!!! Good win for him. Maybe he has figured something out, but I still think Nadal wins French Open #5. I don't think it makes anything more interesting going into the French. Djokovic was cramping in a best of 3 match. Nadal wears his opponents down and thats why a best of 5 changes the whole thing.

Winning a best of 3 versus a best of 5 makes all the difference as well...

BUT to echo Snicks.....


YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
!

In what way?

Meaning I think it is harder for Roger, or anyone for that matter, to beat Nadal in a best of 5 on clay... winning a best of 3 is easier... he is just too good.

Right ok ok....yeah that was my point. To keep that up against Nadal and to have to win 3 sets on clay has been impossible for the past 4 years. Best of 3 is much easier cuz you know the length isn't going to be as long. Of course with Nadal, some of those best of 3 probably felt like best of 5. Anywho...yeah I don't think the storyline changes going into Roland Garros. Nadal is the clear cut favorite and I will be SHOCKED if he doesn't win. Plus, Madrid is faster red clay than Roland Garros.

Her career has taken a turn as Spokes-Actress for Lexus. Flew all the way to Madrid to hand over 2 Inflatable Lexus Keys to Federer & Safina. Then she was unceremoniously whisked away to her next Lexus gig: Brazil, where she has to shovel swamp mud into a pail to commence Ground-Breaking for the new Lexus Heaquarters in Sao Paolo, where the daily temps now hover at around 100 degrees or so. Oh the glamourous life of a Dual Oscar Winner! Swank was too anorexic and too young to replace that Zeppelin Kirstie Allie as Jenny Craig's Spokes-Actress, so Jenny dredged up another previously-thought-to-be-extinct Spokes-Actress in Valerie Bertinelli Van Halen. At least they got to stay stateside. Poor Swank's gotta schlep all over the globe. Hope Lexus is paying her royally. Seems the role of Commercial Spokes-Actress is Hollywood's hottest ticket for the "Where are they now..?" or "Whatever happened too...?" Double X Chromosomes. Either that, or these ladies are using Commercials as "Remember ME??????" auditions.

By the way. Speaking of Zeppelins, has anyone else noticed that Mirka is now only being televised from the neck up these days? Boy, she must be getting REALLY big if the camera isn't showing any of her mommy bulges - many of which she had prior to becoming artificially inseminated.