The Draw is out.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2009/352/mds.pdf

So the Fed has Murray and Del Potro in his half, but at least he'd only have to play one of them since they're not in his quarter. You know he'd rather face DelPo than Murray, since Murray appears to have his number and he'd like to get some revenge for the USO.

Nadal has to be glad he doesn't have to face DelPo on his side, though, as the big guy seems to have his number, now. I wonder if Nadal would be chomping at the bit to face Soderling, though, if he were to make it out of the other quarter, but with the Djoke and Davydenko both in that quarter, I'd expect one of them to make it out before Soderling to face Rafa in that semi.

Things could be rough for everyone's beloved Simon, as he might have to play Ljuby in the second round, and big Ivan is on quite the run right now. And if he were to survive that, he'd likely have to play Tsonga. Quite the tall order for le beau mec.

Tsonga is dealing with some sort of wrist injury, so I don't expect him to do much in the way of defending his title - he'll be glad just to play. Still, Rafa works harder than he sometimes needs to against players who intimidate him, and Tsonga is part of that club, so he might make it to the final four anyway.

I'm kind of getting an Ivanovic vibe (post-Slam letdown slump) from Delpo and I suspect he'll lose early this week and get shut out from any RR wins in London. Hopefully he'll stay at the top in the season to come, but if it wouldn't surprise me to see him struggle for some time with the weight of expectations.

This is the only Masters final Fed hasn't reached, but I think Murray may yet get the better of him in the semis - they have an agreement where Murray wins when it doesn't matter too much, apparently. Djoko and Davy may be a bit tired out after going deep into events this week and in Asia, as well as saving themselves for the bigger prize in London (having been last year's Masters Cup finalists already) so Soderling - if he's injury-free - might do some damage in the bottom half, as he does his best work indoors and seems to have Davy's number lately already, and reach his second final in Paris this year.

DelPo is dealing with a wrist injury too. He had to withdraw from the tournament this week (forget if he was entered in Basel or Valencia) because of it. Andy R is also out. Apparently he hasn't fully recovered from that MCL strain he suffered in China. It was surprising that Rafa didn't play a tune-up prior to a Masters event, especially since one of them was in Spain. Doesn't he always? Does this mean that his knees are still bothering him?

Federer is playing really sharply in Basel, albeit it looks even better because up to now he hasn't played anyone in the Top 20. Still, the break from the Asian Swing has done him a lot of good - hitting the ball as sweetly as ever. His Quarter here isn't exactly worry-free. Guys like Wawrinka, Monfils (when he's not injured or mentally melting down), Cilic and Verdasco all hit big enough that long games and even a third set isn't out of the realm of possibility. Murray also is looking uber-sharp in Valencia up to now, and the time off looks to have helped him a lot also. Get this: his first match could be against Santoro in what could become The Junk Balling Extravaganza Match . Del Potro has spent time either losing early since the US Open, or nursing his wrist. If he doesn't start beating the Top 10's again soon he'll have to start all over mentally against them. That's a shame too since his mental fortitude was so impressive winning the Open. Once guys like Federer, Nadal, Murray & Djokovic get a whiff of a guys tentativeness they pump up and steam roll. It should be a Federer-Murray SF, and I'm getting the idea since both are relatively rested, that match could be one of those long, brutal 3 Setterrs they have had a couple times before.

As of today Davydenko hasn't officially qualified for London, and he has SF Points to defend here. So if he doesn't get that #7 spot come Monday the pressure for him will mount to secure it. And has Soderling done all that much since his French Final, or is he gonna do like Verdasco in Australia and live off the glory of one tournament ad-infinitum? When I see him actually win one of these 1000 events I'll believe. The Djokovic Quarter looks tame to the QF, and if Davydenko is exhausted from playing non-stop since Kuala Lampur then Novak should show up in the SF. As for Nadal his Quarter looks relatively simple. He & Tsonga have met 4 times and Nadal has won 3, all on a hard court. For Paris Title-Holder Tsonga to win he'll have to be "zoned" and hitting winners off every shot, like he did in Australia (it's worth remembering he did that same thing to Murray in that AO-08 in the First Round). If Nadal holds his serve & stays with him Tsonga breaks down mentally and Nadal sends him home. With a wrist problem Tsonga may not even make it to Nadal, because Ljubicic is enjoying something of a career second wind these days. I'm guessing he'll get through to meet Nadal in the QF. In Shanghai Ivan took a set from Nadal only to lose the 2nd Set and leave the court in muscle cramping retirement. With the Asian swing under him in terms of match play Nadal should get through to the SF. A meeting with Djokovic would be a Pick 'Em: Djokovic could blast Nadal off the court; or Nadal could grind Djokovic into the carpet.

The Doubles Draw still isn't out yet, but it might be worth a look to see if someone like Del Potro is playing Doubles to get some matches in him.

And he's never beaten Ivan....0-3. Not the luckiest of draws for Gilles to finish. He was 0-4 going in to the Youzhny match, but you have to win those.

Back to the other new fave Marco, he got a free entry in to Paris because of doing well in Basel since he couldnt show up for quallies. Not too shabby. He just lost a mail-biter first set to Roger, and now this second will prob go quick....just staying tuned for the butt pat at this point.

Strike me down for suggesting Gilles should stick a fork in his year. He played some brilliant and outright hilarious tactical tennis after inflaming his knee injury late in the third set. Highlights included a pair of back to back crosscourt drop shot winners. Magnificent stuff.

I hope he can cure the knee problem during the end of year layover, because his game is still very much a work in progress, and while he's backslid in the rankings, he does seem to be developing new facets.

Weird ending, huh? Not sure how the hobbled little chick (aka Poussin) pulled it off. Luck? Crowd energy? Lack of pressure (since he seemed to think it was a given he would eventually lose)? Ljubey playing the injury instead of his normal game? I wouldnt be surprised if Gilles pulled out against his Jo buddy....as in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga of course. Looks like he has a day to rest, but he may need the off-season like 2H already said.

I felt bad for Ljubicic, who was a really good sport about the injury time-out. Gilles seemed to feel bad too. The crowd ate it up though. ALLLLLEEEEEZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It was a bit odd, but mostly it was Simon's surviving the first couple of games after aggravating his knee injury - he seemed to be moving decently albeit gingerly once he got it warmed up again. Ljubicic threw him a bit of a lifeline with some sloppy UEs as well. I don't think it was as spectacularly bizarre an outcome as the commentators wanted us to believe, although of course Robby Koenig reacts to everything like an excitable 12-year-old fangirl (and heaven forbid Fed should hit an above-average winner on his watch). In my opinion the Haas-Murray match at Indian Wells a couple of years ago was more dramatic and strange to watch - Murray took a heavy roll on his ankle in the second set (already down a set), took several minutes to recover, somehow eked out the second set and won it in a third-set tiebreaker that went to extra points. Haas was livid with himself (and less-than-complimentary of Murray's game afterwards) for letting it slip away. All told both of these matches shared some similarities, though, and all credit to Simon for pulling that one out for the sake of the home crowd if nothing else. I hope he manages to stay in it and put up an effort against Tsonga, even though he's lost to him twice already this year.

Meanwhile Safin is officially off the tour. It was a pretty entertaining match against Del Potro, more than I expected and with both players bringing their best at times, and fitting it should be his last in that the Argentine drew a lot of comparisons to Safin in winning the USO, not only tennis-wise but in the manner that they fulfilled their promise earlier than anticipated in stunning a multi-Slam champ in the final on the same big stage. Bit of a handing over of the torch maybe. Very nice ceremony afterwards as well, not to mention Safin and Delpo were all but nuzzling each other more than once. He was a big complainer at times, and of course his own worst enemy, but definitely a unique standout personality in the game. Hard to believe that the '05 AO will stand as his last title. I thought he'd break that drought on the way out a couple of weeks ago in St Petersburg, when it was just him and a bunch of nobodies left in the semis, but he still found a way to lose to the fearsome Sergiy Stakhovsky.

So the day's play just wrapped up this minute, at almost 2AM Paris time. Unbelievable day. Tough three setters for Del Potro, Nadal and Murray - all of whom came through. Rough day for Federer, who did not get through his 3-Setter against Benneteau. Sad goodbye for Safin - but he did put a scare into JMDP. Clement and Cilic also needed three sets to move on. Even the straight setters were hard fought: Djokovic (down 2-5 in the 2nd before winning five straight games to close it out), Gonzo & Monfils narrowly escaping a third. Oddly enough, Robredo & Stepanek moved through the most comfortably of anyone today. And the real winners on the day were Davydenko, Verdasco, Tsonga and Simon - all of whom played their 2nd Round Matches yesterday and so had today off. Murray was the big loser on the schedule - he was the last match of the day winding it up at 2 AM.

The Federer & Nadal matches were the drama matches of the day. For the 2nd time this year Nadal saved 5 Match Points in the 2nd Set and follow it up winning the 3rd Set. Nadal had no business winning this match, but Almagro blew three of his 5 chances to close it out in the 2nd Set with silly errors. Even at that, he went up a break on Nadal in the third set, cramping, leading 5-3 and serving for it. Then watched Nadal struggle to win four straight games and snatch victory out of Almagro's jaws of defeat. You could never say Nadal was the best player (except probably on clay); but you could make a case he's the most courageous player we've seen in a long, long time.

It was just sad to watch Federer today against a guy that he would have handled routinely during this summer. I wondered if the fact the day kept dragging on made him mad enough to break his concentration? After the 3 hour ugly-bowl of Nadal -Almagro, Federer still had to wait through the Mofils match before he could get to the court. He looked great winning the opening set, but two careless errors in the tiebreak cost him the 2nd set, and after that it was just sad to watch him struggle with no answer as Benneteau just decided to go for broke. In the tiebreak of the 2nd and all through the 3rd set, that "half-step" slowdown of movement to the Forehand side we saw in the Spring was back. It was rough to watch only because he had control of the match - and then it slipped away.

I don't know about the math, but how does this affect him for year end #1? He lost some points in Basel, and he had QF points to defend here. But I think only if Nadal runs the table from here on out could he lose the #1 ranking.

There have been three matches I can recall this year in which 5+ MPs were saved in the second set, and as pointed out, Rafa has featured in two of those. Not coincidentally, they have all had uuuugly and/or anticlimactic third sets (a bagel for both Nalby and Zvonareva - in her match against Pennetta at the USO).

From being a titan in escaping the second set, cranking winners on most of the MPs like at Indian Wells, Rafa deflated back to near pathetic-dom in the third, almost seeming like he didn't want to win. He broke right away, Almagro looking completely deflated, yet handed it straight back; then he went down a break _again_ and finally clawed that one back. At this point, Nico cramped up serving at 3-all, 40-30, and not only did Rafa not manage to capitalise when play resumed, but he somehow let himself get broken yet again so that we all had to be subjected to the unlovely spectacle of Almagro trying to serve it out when his movement was barely there anymore. It really took a long time for that match to whimper to its conclusion.

What a contrast to the exciting, high-quality match between Fed and Benneteau. I'm not sure which one vm1 saw - heh - because while he wasn't as sharp at times, Fed wasn't anywhere near the shankmonster he has been in losses this year. Furthermore, instead of kind of crumpling up and handing over easy final sets (see: any against Djoko or Murray or 5th sets at the AO and USO) he was still dominating much of the final set, with Benneteau successfully digging his way out of trouble time and again and tenaciously clinging to that early break. Fed also saved a bunch of BPs with his usual get-out-of-jail-free card of big serves when it counted; even the game in which he was broken, he got to deuce from 0-40. Hats off to Julien, who really earned that one - when I saw the draw I thought it might be trouble for Fed (yet never anticipated an actual loss), it being his first match coming in while Julien had just won one and would be pumped up playing for his home crowd. (Really only Gasquet and Mathieu crumble on home turf - Tsonga, Monfils, Benneteau, Simon et al really lift their games, and look at Clement, who has been invisible most of the year yet pulled out a marathon today against Haas in an extended third-set tiebreaker.) It helps that he's easy on the eyes and probably playing for our team.

Paris points already came off which makes it relatively simple for me to figure out the No 1 stakes, on top of Fed winning just one RR match at the Masters Cup and Rafa skipping the event last year. Still, the new point values mean I lost my old rankings fu. But I think the barest-bones scenario for the ranking changing hands is Rafa at least reaching the finals here and in London while Fed goes winless in London as well. But yeah. Very much an outside shot, especially given today's display; Rafa might not even make it past Robredo, another countryman who had never given him trouble before like Almagro. Still, he got a relatively decent draw, with the dangerous and refreshed Delpo and Murray on the other side from him, and the depleted Djoko and Davy potentially slugging it out in another battle of attrition in the QFs before only one of them would meet Rafa, so he should really, really aim to at least reach the final at Bercy for the second time if he wants to go out on a high note for the season. (London is really too much of a crapshoot and a mountain to climb to boot.)

Here's what I saw, Suede. In the 2nd Set Tie Break, Federer started to have less speed & agility moving to cover his Forehand, which made him hit defensively on that shot. The two errors which cost him the Tie Break were a direct result of this, allowing JB to take control of the point. In match game, at 30-15, Federer had two cracks at what I'd argue is his Signature Shot - his Inside Out Forehand. He's made a lot of his career executing that shot as lethally as it's ever been hit by anyone. And here, he hit both of them in the most tentative manner I've seen him execute in a long time, spinning them for safety rather than driving through them to damage. The second one landed way too short (and it did because he was so tentative), which allowed JB to crack a driving backhand winner and set up his two Match Points. It's true that JB held steady, but he got a lot of inexplicable help from Federer, whose shots started to lose their sting the more the match went on. That's what was sad to see, because he never should have been in a third set. And when he got there, his nerves started to undermine his game. Instead of doing what he does best, playing to win, he eventually played "not to lose". Which is why he lost.

Novak keeps winning throughout this fall indoor season, despite rarely looking particularly convincing in the process. But there are no style points on the ATP tour, lucky for Novak, since he looked like shyte against Soderling. Rafa, on the other hand, was terrific against Tsonga. I never noticed until today's match just how much of a weakness Tsonga's 2nd serve is. Granted, Rafa is one of the fiercest returners on the tour, but Tsonga's 36% points won on 2nd serve reveals a serious Achilles' heel. Rafa should win tomorrow unless Novak does some serious overnight improvement. Then again, Novak's won a lotta matches recently that he had no business winning.

Didn't see the other semis, but Monfils has to be feeling at least a wee bit tired after a 2:22 match against a hard-hitting baseliner like Cilic whereas Stepanek didn't even break a sweat during the 4 games he took before DelPo retired. Because Monfils camps out so deep behind the baseline, net-rushing Stepanek should have a field day with short, angled approaches and volleys. And unlike the typical hardcourt, the Bercy court kinda dies on the bounce because it's built atop a wood platform.

Gallic pride might sweep Monfils to victory over Stepanek, but I can't imagine it'll do the trick against Novak or Rafa. The Rafa/Novak semi feels like the final.

Novak whipped Rafa today. There was a 20some point stretch in the middle of the match when he won around 90% of the points.

He has Rafa totally figured out on hard courts, or especially this kind of hard court - he anticipates where Rafa is placing the ball.

Novak's results at majors this year aren't what they should be for a player of his caliber.

At the moment Novak is looking thicker and stronger. His ass is fiiiiine. It'll be interesting to see if he can carry this increased strength over into 2010.

Djokovic reaches #2 for the first time in his career and Federer achieves his 5th year end #1. Nadal's mid court balls were begging to be pounded today. Novak has the ad on him on this surface. Djokovic really seems to be getting his mojo back and perhaps 2010 will be his year to outshine Nadal and Federer. Still too many questions about Murray for me about him coming through at the majors, but who knows.

Ever since Novak switched rackets before 2009 Australian Open, I've never been happy with his forehand. Granted, it wasn't the most mechanically sound shot anyway, but I thought he hit it with both more pace and accuracy with the old Wilson racket. Today against Rafa was the first time I've seen him hit the forehand really well with this new Head stick. Hey, 11 months to get used to a new racket. Better late than never, I guess.

Novak was simply astonishing today. The most impressive thing about that 7-game stretch in which Novak won the vast majority of points was that he did so with almost all winners or forced errors. Rafa made only 8 unforced errors the whole match. Another shot in his arsenal that seems to have returned is the down-the-line backhand. During some of Novak's doldrums earlier this year, Johnny Mac often commented that he thought that shot was off a bit. Well, whether it was the racket or something else, Novak's DTL backhand is back with a vengeance this fall indoor season.

If Novak plays anywhere near like how he played today against Rafa, then he's a cinch to beat Monfils. But if the nerve-racked version of Novak who barely got past Soderling shows up, then a Frenchman will win the Paris Masters a 2nd year in a row. I keep thinking LeMonf should be tired, what with two ~2.5 hour three-setters in a row, but the rowdy French fans will get his adrenaline going. Basically, the outcome depends on Novak.

Novak with 75 wins this season is in his 10th Final this year and will probably nab his 5th title, and yet it seems like the general consensus here and of the commentators is that he's not playing that well this year. Tough Crowd. But I guess until he wins today, none of these wins include a Grand Slam or Master Series Shield. He has had a pretty consistent and impressive year for someone supposedly struggling with confidence and a new racquet, a story that I think got way blown out of proportion.

It's funny, when all is said and done this year the Top 3 of 2008 remain the Top 3 of 2009 with some good distance ahead of the rest of the pack in the rankings. Murray came on strong early in the year and Delpo won the US Open, but Nole has backed up his ranking pretty well this year. And only one retirement. Maybe he is maturing after all....and at 22, it's about time huh?

Great, great showing by Djokovic to win this whole thing. The match against Nadal was probably the best tennis he's played this year. I don't know that his Forehand itself is better than it was, but he's been doing very well to set up the points so he can hit that shot Inside Out as often as possible. That's what shellacked Nadal yesterday, plus the fact Djokovic made almost no errors. Today was a lot different. The Unforced Errors starting piling up after the opening set, 24 in the 2nd Set alone. It was good to see him hold his nerve, even if Monfils handed him a few gifts in the tie break was some bad shot selection. And huge kudos to Monfils too, down 0-3 in the 2nd Set and down 1-4 in the 3rd Set to make the match of it that he did. In fact, had he played the point construction a little more smartly he might have actually won it.

You'd have to say the YEC Championship Match will come down some combination among Djokovic, Murray and Federer.

Err...will Djokovic take over #2. I had one too many Malibu and cokes yesterday so maybe I was off in my calculating. I guess I'll know tomorrow when I look at the rankings. I think early in the season of 2010 Rafa will be the big threat. If his knees are manageable I can see him defending Australia and getting his French Crown back. Will have to see if Novak can keep his better year end play up early in 2010. Wimbledon is up in the air for me, but I'd say it would be between Roger and Rafa. US Open is uhhh...end of the season....who has held up? Its becoming more the wild card of the majors with Roger being a lot less dominant.

well, have another malibu and coke. the rankings are out and the Top 3 remain roger, rafa, and novak in that order. you may have calculated correctly except for the fact that the YEC points come off now, rather than later.

i wont even try to predict next year's winners other than to say i think 2010 has a lot of good tennis in store for us on both the ATP and WTA tours.

Agree. It looks more competitive now, and the WTA can look forward to looming good matches thanks mostly to Justine's return.

Sampras gave an interview when he played Agassi in China last month and he said he still likes Federer at the majors. He said Federer probably won't be as dominant as he has been up to now, but when you have to win 7 Best of 5 Matches, he likes Federer's chances of adding three or four more to his tally before he hangs it up. Sampras also said Nadal was going to be in the Top 2 or 3 in the world for the "for as long as he wants to be". Sampras granted Nadal will deal with the occasional injuries, but we can expect to see him around on the final weekend of most tournaments.

Djokovic looks to be on the ascent again, which is a result of a lot of work he's put in to getting where he is now. Agree with Terp that Murray still has something to prove at the Majors; and JMDP has the "Sophomore Slump" to overcome after winning the US Open. He sure hasn't done much in the autumn to make us remember he actually won there.