The two round-robin groups have been drawn:

Group A
(1) Roger Federer
(4) Andy Murray
(5) Juan Martin del Potro
(7) Fernando Verdasco

Group B
(2) Rafael Nadal
(3) Novak Djokovic
(6) Nikolay Davydenko
(8) Robin Soderling (Andy R withdrew because he's still not fully recovered from that MCL strain)

I'll be shocked if Novak doesn't come through out of Group B. The other semifinalist is a bit tougher. Rafa is struggling some on hardcourt, even though he seemingly mastered his toughest surface after winning the AO. Davydenko is the dark horse in this group. He's beaten Rafa 3 out of 4 times on hard, and despite a 3-6 H2H against Soderling, Davydenko is certainly capable of notching up a 2nd W against the Swede. I don't think Soderling has the consistency to get through.

Group A is a little more interesting. Murray won Valencia but has otherwise struggled this fall indoor season. Verdasco hasn't exactly set the tennis world on fire since his big result at the AO. DelPo has hardly played since winning the USO. Roger should be a shoo-in, but he's been shanking the ball so much recently that I hesitate to label him a sure thing.

Novak is the favorite going into the WTFs. He's had the best indoor season by far, and the other Big 5 guys are looking pretty unconvincing. DelPo has been so absent from the tour since Flushing Meadow that I kinda wonder if I should even be including him with the other four.

The one common characteristic amongst all eight players is they all look a bit gassed. It's like they're all running on fumes, both physically and mentally. The one thing to look forward to is that nice, looooooong offseason (4 weeks?) before they have to start preparing for Australia.

The Final will be two of these three: Federer, Murray or Djokovic. None of the others have been playing as well, so they're up against it.

EDITED TO ADD:

The schedule of first matches is now out for both Sunday and Monday::

SUNDAY, November 22nd:

CENTRE COURT – start 12:30 pm
[1] D Nestor (CAN / N Zimonjic (SRB) vs [8] M Fyrstenberg (POL) / M Matkowski (POL)
Not Before 2:15 pm
[4] A Murray (GBR) vs [5] J del Potro (ARG)
At 7:00 pm
[3] M Bhupathi (IND) / M Knowles (BAH) vs [5] F Cermak (CZE) / M Mertinak (SVK)
Not Before 8:45 pm
[1] R Federer (SUI) vs [7] F Verdasco (ESP)

MONDAY, November 23rd:

CENTRE COURT – start 12:30 pm
[2] B Bryan (USA) / M Bryan (USA) vs [7] M Mirnyi (BLR) / A Ram (ISR)
Not Before 2:15 pm
[2] R Nadal (ESP) vs [8] R Soderling (SWE)
At 7:00 pm
[4] L Dlouhy (CZE) / L Paes (IND) vs L Kubot (POL) / O Marach (AUT)
Not Before 8:45 pm
[3] N Djokovic vs [6] N Davydenko (RUS)

On paper, these are some interesting match-ups. But I get the feeling Fed and Djoko will bowl over everyone in their path, with Murray as the wild card. Agreeing with the above assessments, basically.

Djoko and Davy each just humbled Rafa this past month alone, and obviously he can't be thrilled about having to face Soderling as his opening match. He can make it to the semis for the third time if he tries, but not much more than that. (In fact, it would fit the previous set pattern for him to emerge second from his group and Fed first from his, with a straight-set encounter in the semis going Fed's way.) I guess at least the possibility of finishing as No 1 after the up-and-down season he's had is a moral victory.

Meanwhile Delpo is definitely taking the Ivanovic route, with random niggling injuries cropping up to go with the lack of form (he's hardly played since the USO and yet has had to retire from two matches already with different issues?) - I think his only win has been over Safin, and thank goodness for that so the latter could meet retirement in respectable fashion, but his other matches (Melzer, Gonzo, that French qualifier in Japan) are hardly cause for inspiration, as he blew numerous opportunities in them from struggling with himself more than his opponent. I think he'll probably go winless, unless Verdasco is even more hapless than he is in their match. There has been a lot of press about his 'rematch' against Fed but that will be a letdown for sure, probably more on par with the straightforward losses he's had at his hands all along than anything like we saw at the FO and USO.

I think if Davydenko wants to reach the semis again he has to get over his strange mental block with Soderling. He managed to do it when he won that title in Kuala Lumpur (the start of his hot Asia swing) and really should have done it in Paris, so hopefully he'll do it this time. Still, Soderling is a curious case - he seems to have hit form, is tough indoors, and Djoko narrowly escaped him last week. He could potentially go from being a 'lucky loser' into the event to sweeping his group undefeated! Ugh.

Some interesting pre-London comments:

Andy Murray, in London, on Rafael Nadal: "If Nadal plays well, he’s very good, but people who saw his matches in Paris say he was struggling a bit and he said he wasn’t that happy with the way he is playing, either. So in some ways it would have been nicer to be in his box [round robin group] if he wasn’t playing well, but by the time it starts I am sure he will have had enough practice, and these courts will suit him quite well."


Roger Federer, speaking to the Independent, on Andy Murray: "when I play too well or too offensively I can take time away from him now. And I'm too physical, whereas in the beginning I couldn't do that. I couldn't get around backhands like I can now. Now I can mix up my game too well for him to get under my skin.
"I know what I can do and I know what he can do. When we both play well it's a close match, but I always feel it's the attacker who holds the key to success, so it's up to me whether I win or lose, not up to him. That's why I don't mind the match-up, to be honest."

Tennis Channel is re-broadcasting some of the past matches at the YEC, and last night's offering was the 2000 SF of Sampras vs. Guga. Federer had said the game of tennis itself changes every 5-7 years, and this match was a great example of how that happens.

Guga was the first guy to exclusively use the Polyester strings from Luxilon and win big when he won the French in 1997. By this SF match he'd gotten used to the timing required on a hard court with his extreme grips on both wings. All of which made Sampras look like a sitting duck at the net way more often than he was used to. So many of Guga's Returns of the Sampras Serve ended up at the Sampras shoe laces that all Sampras could do was dig them up and half-volley them over the net, which gave Guga all too much time to close in and put the sitter mid court ball away. Mind you, that was only when Guga wasn't hitting outright winners from his heavily spun backhand right off one of those Sampras Serves. Sampras had no defense against that much topspin, especially using the racquet he had, the Wilson Pro Staff with a puny 88 square inch head frame loaded with Natural Gut string. Great for knocking off those volleys when the ball sat a foot above the net; not so great when you have to scoop those uber-spinning balls up off your shoe tops. By the late stages of the match, you could see the Sampras hesitance of coming in during a rally, having watched multiple passes shoot by him and then dive down onto the court for outright winners. Guga basically forced Sampras into base line rallies far too often for Sampras, which is exactly what Guga wanted. Sampras had no real game plan against a game like this - a game he was not used to facing very much at all. In fact these two had played the Miami Final earlier that same year and it was a match that frankly Guga should have won, and he was really mad at himself for losing that one - smashing his racquet on the ground at one point letting a lead get away with his own errors. It was also around this time that Sampras referred to Luxilon as "Cheatalon", and the advent of the new strings proliferating to ever more players probably had more to do with his 26 month title drought than just about anything else.

Guga actually served more Aces in this match than Sampras, 14-11. Guga stood about where Nadal does today - 8 feet or so behind the base line to return, so he connected with a lot of the Sampras Serves. He broke Sampras in the 9th game to serve it out at 5-4, then fell back 15-40 trying to do it. He got back to Deuce with an unbelievable cross court sharply angled volley winner which left Sampras reeling, then closed it out with two Aces. Guga reached his first Indoor Final where he met Agassi , won that match and became World #1. But this SF was as good an example of the new Sea Change of tennis as we could see. The Serve & Volley brand of tennis used by Sampras, Becker, McEnroe and Laver - the brand of tennis you used to need to succeed at the highest level - was now in it's last stages of obsolescence.

Nice in-depth assessment of the Guga-Pete match, voicemale. Here's mine....

I MISS GUGA!!!!!

Goodguy - I miss him too. Especially when he had his hair cut real short like he did when he played this match

EVERYONE should check out this CNN Video of Federer doing an interview right after he signed his deal with Credit Suisse. He gets a serious case of the giggles and turns the whole interview into a goof reel. He's so cute doing it too. Very Very funny stuff.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CG0ATZT-YWc

Good analysis there, voicemale. I've not seen that match, but I remember watching Guga destroy Patrick Rafter in Cincinatti with similar tactics. It gets so tiresome listening to some of these commentators who seem to think every player should be serving and volleying. If Federer rushed in behind all his first serves and many of his second serves against Nadal, Murray or Djokovic, he'd get creamed. That's not to say there's no place for net play in the modern game. You just can't count on a well-placed serve being enough to make for an easy first volley if your opponent knows you're coming in.

It also annoys me when commentators use the evidence that "clay courters" can win on hard courts now as evidence that the courts must have been slowed down. The top clay courters from Kuerten and Moya onward have had better serves and just play more or a forcing game than their predecessors, so it works better on faster surfaces. Every time clay court season runs around you start reading commentaries (Peter Bodo and Cliff Drysdale are particularly bad) who can't be bothered to watch clay court tennis closely enough to understand the strategy. It drives me up the wall to hear Nadal referred to as a retriever and it still happens.

More than a few frightening moments for the Favorites yesterday. Murray looked to be on pure cruise control in Set 1 before JMDP either found the motivation or the adrenaline was pumping enough endorphins through his frame that the abdominal issue finally subsided to wake him up. Set 2 went to JMDP in a big way, as though he was now in control of the match, only to run out of gas again. He did show Murray today that when he starts firing his Forehand there's nothing Murray can do to counter it except wait for an error. As long as Del Potro can stay injury free his game will take him as far as he wants to go. And as for frights to favorites - defending Doubles Champs and World #1 Nestor/Zimonjic are sent off as straight set losers to the Poles yesterday . With every set counting to get to the Semis these two face a huge mountain to climb now.

When Federer opened the match serving a Double Fault on the first point, pushed a Forehand way long and then shanked a Slice into the bottom of the net to lose his first service game at Love - you knew all wasn't well. But all credit to Verdasco for taking that break and maintaining it all through the First Set. And he played some outstanding tennis too. The ball is bouncing up considerably off this court - he was able to get the ball up very high to Federer's back hand. And Verdaso was doing some great, great hitting & scrambling - often matching (and sometimes bettering) Federer shot for shot. Federer was clearly having movement issues again, especially to his Forehand side. He was getting to the ball late a lot - and even when he did get there his feet weren't in position for him to execute his customary lethal shots. He did a lot of defensive rather than offensive hitting. The pivotal moment for the hapless Verdasco came in the 11th game of the 2nd Set. He was tightening, but still in it. Federer hit a lob and Verdasco followed it back to the baseline so casually he thought it was going out. When it hit the line he had to improvise with an unprepared ugly combo "Smash-Forehand" type swing which put the ball embarrassingly on his own service line. He never recovered mentally from that moment, and Federer seized the opportunity and steamrolled thereafter. He was getting outplayed by Verdasco for many patches yesterday - but you don't win 15 Majors, 60-plus Titles and $50 million in Prize Money without knowing how to win when it's not working. Federer escaped today, and he should come back a lot better next time, and he'll need to. Murray, and maybe even Del Potro, are much less likely to check out mentally.

So far, it's been a predictable event. Federer and Murray are calling the shots in their group as expected, and the match between them will decide who emerges first or second from it. At least Delpo and Verdasco made matches of it, on paper, but you knew Delpo couldn't sustain his momentum and that Verdasco wouldn't have the belief to take advantage of a vulnerable Fed, despite being six points from the victory at 5-all, 0-30; instead we got two anticlimactic third sets with the challengers fading as rapidly as they'd come on strong. It was good to see flashes of Del Potro at his best, so his tennis is still there lurking below the surface, but he's still probably at only 75% and can only hope to win against Verdasco, whom he's never played (and who risks becoming the group's punching bag considering his terrible record against Murray, the AO fluke aside), to come away with one consolation group win like last year.

Meanwhile, Rafa was afraid of his own shadow against Soderling, who played a solid match but nothing special. The Spaniard basically handed over each set at the first opportunity, buckling at 5-4 in each for a straightforward 6-4, 6-4 loss. It's a shame because this was the must-win match for Rafa in his group, since it's a much steeper climb against Davydenko and then Djokovic, and he couldn't even take a set as insurance if he still somehow ties with one of them in the W-L category, so I think that's all he wrote in London. Despite the very high-profile loss against Soderling at Roland Garros, it had still been the only time Rafa ever lost to him, but now he's missed the chance to rein him in like he has Tsonga since suffering a similar high-profile loss to him. It's tempting to write off Rafa entirely, but he's always limped over the finish line every season and each time he seemed a spent force he's come back strong; so I'll still wait to see how he performs in the IW-Miami double through to the clay and grass, traditionally the gravy part of the season for him.

But at this point, Nadal's playing like an average Top 10 player, not really Top 5 material - definitely not a No 2 much less a No 1. Indeed, both rankings are hanging in the balance. If he doesn't win at least one match this week, Djokovic can finish the year No 2 by defending his title. Meanwhile, No 1 is all but lost, since now Fed just needs to win one more match this week to clinch it. The suspense could have lasted right through the semis but this was pretty much the worst-case scenario for Rafa.

I wish I could disagree with you Urban Suede, but every word you write is true. Beating Soderling would have allowed him to exorcise some demons. I'm pretty much ready to call it a year for Rafa.

Though I guess he still has to play Davis Cup after this? Good grief.

I like Rafa in interviews. He gave a great one in the Spanish press recently with some strong opinions about religion and war and money and happiness that are just about the opposite of typical sports star nonsense. But even in the recent interviews, he's talking like he's not that invested as a competitor. A lot of "I've achieved a lot and I'm happy" talk rather than hunger for more. So I don't see him defending at the Australian.

It'll be interesting to see if he can find himself again on his best surface next year. It's where he lost himself this year.

I think he pretty much called it a year after the US Open.

Federer has more talent for tennis in his pinky than Nadal will have in his entire life. But each of their given circumstances can result in it's own greatness. In that way they mirror McEnroe & Lendl. What I admire about Nadal is how hard he's willing to work to make himself better. And therein lies what makes each of them who they are. The work Federer does is like some kind of tennis sage; he broadens his knowledge intuitively as to what shot is required at the precise moment to disassemble the game of whoever he's playing. He never seems to run out of ideas against anyone - he only loses mostly when his body betrays him. Nadal is a bricklayer by comparison - he has to sweat his way into everything he does in order to know he's accomplished something worthwhile. The sublime Genius and the earnest Laborer.

That said, Nadal is at a crossroads now. His "Spin To Win" playbook gets more dated by the year. He looks thinner than he ever has, so a lot of the power his shots used to have are more meek these days. Mentally it looks as though he's not been put back together again. Given his entire family lived in the same apartment building, and like Federer his family was responsible for managing his untold wealth, what needed to be restructured is: who now has the responsibility for what? Unless any of us has such financial independence, we'll never understand fully just how many schemers exist who try to separate the wealthy from their cash. When your financial custodians break up, you have to do a lot of redirecting of who manages what, a task made more complicated if the goal must include the requirement of keeping your financially custodial parents separated from each other.

There was one thing I found worthwhile in his shellacking today: his willingness to stand squarely on the base line for the Return, trying to be more aggressive. It goes against his ingrained approach to the game, and until he muscularly memorizes the new approach, a lot of shellacking will happen along the way. But such willingness to adapt and improve are why he's managed to stay among the Top 2 for four and a half years. We'll know early on in 2010 whether or not Nadal will anymore be the same force to be reckoned with.

I enjoyed the shirt exchange between Djokovic and Davydenko at the end of their match.

At 28, Davydenko has a much leaner and tighter body than the younger Djokovic.

Is it just me, or have the matches so far been a bit lackluster? Or low-energy is perhaps the better adjective. It doesn't feel like the players are that fired up. Although he lost, I did enjoy seeing Davydenko getting fired up (relatively speaking) during his match. I dont know, maybe it's been a long season for the fans as well.

And I wouldn't count Rafa out just yet. And he's still got Davis Cup. I bet he's looking forward to his fortnight of an off-season.

Just have to shake my head, because that describes it. A couple weeks off, after 11+ months of the tour. At least the women finished beginning of November, instead of into December for the Davis Cup players. Milking the cash cow while diluting the product.

Makes me wonder if Roddick was able to play this week. Hmmmmm, Masters Cup appearance or Turkey Day at home AND an actual off-season to re-fuel. I normally find every reason to pick on Andy, but I can't blame him even if this was the case....which of course, I have no reason to not believe that he is still injured. Also makes me wonder if someone better-rested like Roddick, Tsonga, Monfils, Gonzo, or dare I say Gilles can do some real damage in the land of Oz next year with the big boys still banged up from 2009.

And that's how bored I am with this Masters Cup....already speculating on 2010. Hmmmm, how quickly I will change my tune right now.....there was just an unreal point between Murray and Federer to start their 3rd set, Ooh, and another one....cat and mouse tennis....Meeooow-culous! OK no more 2010 speculation for me, must stay focused in 2009.

Gobble, Gobble....Happy Turkey Day!!!! (just in case the Masters Cup fails to inspire me to write again before Thursday)

Almost escaping notice is the fact that the World #1 Doubles Team and defending champs Nestor/Zimonjic are now out of the tournament basically, having lost both of their matches in straight sets. Given the year thy've had, and the fact the looked really strong coming into this event, you'd have to say their results are the biggest shock of the tournament.

Hope everyone celebrating had a nice Turkey Day. Now to discuss the other bird....the round robin.

I dislike the RR format since the tie-breakers seem so arbitrary AND often feels like the last match can be rigged by the players to secure a SF berth. Did anybody see DelPotro-Federer match? I did not. And even though these two seem like such stand-up guys, I can't help but wonder if they manufactured the match to produce the exact scoreline needed to allow DelPotro to sneak past Murray to qualify while still giving Roger the higher seed for the semis.

Probably unlikely, but the two do seem to both dislike Murray and could have guaranteed a SF spot for themselves ahead of time as they both were at risk of missing SF's if they played it out legitimately. Which they probably did play it for real, yet I do wonder. And I do have the tendency to believe the worst in people and conspiracy theories. I even think the K-West/T-Swift thing was staged, but don't even get me started on Taylor Swift...it is still a holiday after all.

Fuzzy memory, but does anyone remember the year that Moya went undefeated in Round Robin play? Some were thinking that Carlos who already cinched the SF at 2-0 would throw his last RR match against Albert Costa to guarantee both Spaniards would make the semis while shutting out Hewitt, I believe. Senor Moya did no such thing, and I believe Hewitt went on to win the whole thing that year.

Thanks for reading.....writing about tennis helps me digest better.

Not to add fuel to your post-turkey fire gg, but this drama reminds me of the Tennic Channel Open round robin debacle of March, 2007. The two events have a player in common: Del Potro.

Back at that tournament, Del Potro's retirement during a match against James Blake essentially prevented Blake from advancing to the next stage (quarterfinals). At least according to the rules, which Blake and the tournament officials and I guess ATP colluded in breaking for a while to claim he had advanced.

So it does seem like Juan might know the ins and outs of the system.

I only caught the second set tiebreak, and it didn't look especially fixy or fishy. But the result sure does. Who knows. I'm kinda bored with YEC since Rafa sucks and as others have pointed out the matches have a bit of an exho feel regardless if strange round robin outcomes.

I am saying this good-naturedly to you guys, but really if you didn't watch the bloody match, leave the conspiracy theories in the attic. Heh.

First of all, there was utter confusion about the various qualification scenarios among the ATP themselves (who changed their story three times following the Murray v Verdasco match) as well as the commentators, so I find it hard to believe that Fed and Delpo were the only ones who, in the midst of preparing for their match, worked it out to exactly the 6-3 scoreline it turned out was required in the third to force Murray out of the event. (6-2 like the first set would have done just as well actually.) Fed saved the only break point of the second set with an extremely lucky net cord on a poorly-played volley; and Delpo led by a minibreak not just once but twice in the tiebreaker before a last-minute charge by Fed combined with a choke from the Argentine. (Actually it's remarkable how similar this match was to the USO final, what with Delpo eventually gritting out a win after squandering the advantage a few times, as well as the numerous rallies where his raw power forced that desperate stabbing squash shot from Fed, which he rarely has to pull out of the drawer.) There were a lot of flukey net cord points in the match, actually, which seems impossible to 'plan'; and Delpo hit some really gutsy second serves in the third to save three break points, one of which left Fed visibly dropping the F-bomb in frustration when he failed to convert. He was also disgusted with tamely giving away the only break in the third, which also came (as often happens) after he had missed out on chances in the game immediately prior. Lastly, Fed actually asked Delpo at the net as they shook hands if he'd advanced, and he answered glumly that he didn't think so! Then the ATP kept him (and anxious Brit fans) waiting around for 15-20 min on-court before finally announcing that he and Fed had gone through and Murray was out.

Now, this was a definite hair-splitting result and very unlikely the way it ultimately played out, but it's kind of delicious. Murray deserved his fate for throwing away the third set in his match against Fed (in fact, if he'd held serve in the final game instead of crumbling, he'd have tied Delpo for games won/lost, leading to whatever nightmarish reserve tiebreaker scenario arises in that case - Fed himself pointed this out later on in his presser), as well as converting only something like 1 of 15 break points against Verdasco, finally putting him away only when the notoriously flaky Spaniard came to pieces for him in the third-set breaker. Yet again the Scot fails to deliver when it really matters. So-called favourite at the AO? Loses to Verdasco, now the only time out of NINE matches he's managed to lose to him. The only one besides Fed of the Big 4 left at the French? Get bagelled by Gonzalez on the way to flaming out in the quarters. On home turf in the semis of Wimby against a guy he had beaten 5 out of 7 times before (Roddick) including at Wimbledon itself in 2006 when the guy had reached two finals in a row and Murray was barely on anyone's radar just yet? Lose tamely in four sets. Defending finalist at the USO with just a still-untested Delpo and vulnerable Rafa standing in his way in his half, both of whom he had already defeated there the year before by the way? Get swept out meekly by Cilic before even facing them. And now in London, instead of keeping his dominating record against Fed intact (which I now suspect is headed the same way Hewitt's and Nalby's did) or at least making easier work of his pigeon Verdasco? Can't do it. I'd like to think the numerous disappointments of the year will fire him up to make amends in 2010, but I'm wondering if he isn't going to end up as the Nalbandian of the North.

Meanwhile, I'm glad things turned out the way they did, not just because Fed and Delpo delivered a fairly worthy follow-up to their USO clash against my very low expectations for such, but because Murray's elimination (and Delpo's revival) is the first truly unpredictable thing to occur this week. (Soderling's dismissal of Djoko comes close, but the Serb was bound for a letdown after winning something like 11 matches in a row and barely escaping Davydenko in his first match. I also posted earlier in this thread to say that Soderling, despite sneaking in the back door to the event, was actually a prospect for advancing from his group undefeated.) Let the games begin, I say.

[Oh, and as far as the doubles go - I'm not sure how or when the sexy, sleeveless blond duo of Kubot and Marach, who had only caught my eye separately in singles play before now, qualified into the event at all, but they have made it into the semis and thank goodness for that. ]

I'm a bit curious about what the next tiebreaker would be after sets won/lost and games won/lost. Points won/lost? C*ck erect versus flaccid? Seriously, I was glad to see DelPo notch a win over Fed and make it to the semis, thereby reinforcing his membership in the Big 5 after a very poor couple of months post-USO. Or is it back to the Big 4, what with Murray's rather lackluster 2nd half? Jumping ahead a bit, Murray has the most to prove in Australia. If you took a survey of 10,000 tennis fans as to which player least belongs in the "Big Five," I gotta think 90% of them (outside of the U.K.) would say Murray right now.

Davydenko and Djokovic are duking it out (although not against each other) for the last semifinal spot. Davydenko simply has to beat Soderling today to clinch. Novak needs to beat Rafa and then hope that Soderling beats Nikolay. If Novak and Nikolay both end up with 2-1 records, the Russian gets the last spot even though Novak beat him in their match. If there are two players tied at 2-1, then shouldn't the semifinal spot go to the player who won their match? Doesn't seem right, but them's the rules. Novak looked so gassed in his match against Soderling, and Rafa has been out of sorts for months now. With both men sputtering, it's tough to call.

Davydenko did look surprisingly good with his shirt off. He's listed at 154#, even though he looks like he weighs 140 dripping wet. But I guess what little is there is all muscle.

Fair enough. But I did see Kanye-Taylor, so I will stand by that one.

I was asking if anyone saw the match though because I was curious if there were shenanigans, so thanks for sharing your insights. And I was hoping for this result since Murray is my least favorite of this group....well not including Verdasco of course.....I cant get behind someone who is even chokier than I am.

I still dont like the round robin format though since the last RR match (whether rigged or not) will often be played differently since you have the advantage of knowing the scenario. Often one player has already qualified or been eliminated, so are they going to try as hard as they did in their previous matches? And sometimes a player knows he just needs to win a set to qualify, so once you get that set you may ease up a bit. Suede, your hot doubles team Kubot-Marach are actually in that boat today....they have not officially qualified just yet. If the Bryans win in straights, the hotties go home.

I personally would find it very hard to believe though that the players do not know all of this ahead of time. It really is not that difficult to figure out. I'm also a bit surprised that Murray wasnt given the night match and "last licks" so he would know what exactly he needed to move on....shouldnt the hometown boy have that advantage? Well, maybe if it was in Scotland.

A bit odd that in both groups, the odd men out (Murray and Djokovic) beat the player who made it in (DelPo and Davydenko, respectively) in the H2H matchups. But I can understand the reason for the sets won/lost, games won/lost tiebreaker sysem. In Group A, three guys went 2-1, DelPo beat Fed, Fed beat Murray, but Muray beat DelPo, so using the H2H as the tiebreaker gets kinda scratchy.

I'm not big on conspiracy theories either, but I gotta wonder if somewhere in the back (if not the fore) of Soderling's mind was the notion that he'd much rather see Davydenko (6-3 H2H going into today's match, having won 5 of the last 6) in the semis or final than Djokovic (0-5 before the WTF win). Although my little conspiracy theory falls apart when you look at just how gassed Novak looked in the past couple of matches. Kind of like in 2007, Novak showed up to the tour final with the needle on E. At least this year he managed to win a couple of matches, unlike 2007 when he couldn't even win a set. Speaking of which, yikes, kinda sad to see Rafa go 0-3 at the WTF. Even the other 0-3 guy Verdasco managed to win 3 sets compared to big fat ZERO sets won by Rafa. At least Novak has plenty of time to rest and recover before Australia, but poor Rafa and Fernando still have Davis Cup in a couple of weeks. The Czechs have to be feeling a lot more confident about their chances.

I'm lousy at predictions (please note my predictions about this event above), but this event is really tough to figure out, Fed and DelPo have the big games, but both seem to be a little out of it mentally. Soderling and Davydenko are pumped up and motivated, but their games are more limited. I don't see Davydenko beating Fed (gee, 0-12 H2H, really going out on a limb there), so Fed's in the final. Soderling and DelPo are a tossup. If Soderling wins, then Fed's the champion. But if DelPo makes it to the final, I think he'll be the WTF winner.

Well, it appears nobody beats Davydenko thirteen times in a row. I have a feeling he'll probably beat Del Potro in the final, too...

It was sad to watch Federer after the match. You could see in his face he really wanted to win this tournament and it was painful for him to lose this match. Mentally he came unglued early. He had 2 Break Points in Davydenko's opening service game and wasted them both with unforced errors: a forehand long and a backhand into the net. Davydenko held. Federer's next game showed he was so pissed off for missing those chances he ended up losing serve with 2 Double Faults and a backhand into the net. The worst of history repeats itself, and it did for Federer in the 3rd Set tenth game. He had 5-4, and 0-30 on the Davydenko serve - and even got a look at a 2nd Serve. Federer had the Inside Out Forehand lined up to give him 3 Match Points. He pulled the trigger, sending it long. The next point was a Federer Backhand long of the base line. Those missed chances gave Davydenko 5-all and once again unraveled Federer mentally. Game 11 saw him dump four ground strokes into the net, get broken, and forced him to hope Kolya choked serving for it, and try to save his attempt to equal 5 YEC Titles in a Tie Break. Davydenko nearly did, but saved a Federer Break Point with a stunning forehand winner. With an appropriate sadness, Federer dumped yet another forehand into the net when down Match Point, putting Davydenko into the Final.

My thought afterward was that Federer might be better suited to a slower hard court where he could run around his back hand more often. So many of the Davydenko shots were coming back to him so fast that his reaction time wasn't up to what it used to be. But a world of credit to Davydneko, who had to play a lot of tennis after the US Open just to get into this tournament, and recorded wins over Djokovic, Nadal and now Federer along the way. He truly earned it.

And who would have ever thought the Final of the YEC would be played without the World #1, 2, 3 OR 4???

Aside from Federer's shaky play, what struck me about the match was Davydenko's nerves, or lack of. Down 4-5 in the 3rd, love-30, 2nd serve, most players would have served up a duck. But Davydenko put in a pretty damn decent 2nd serve so that at least he started the rally on equal footing. He stayed cool in those final 3 games, playing with just enough controlled aggression to let Fed know that he wasn't going to give it away. He showed some impressive backbone for a guy who went into the match 0-12 against the legendary Federer.

I wish I could comment on the Soderling/DelPo match, but I didn't set the Tivo for extra time, so I missed out on the last few games. But congrats to JMDP for coming back from a break down to win. Both finalists have to be pretty tired going into the match tomorrow, Davydenko especially with all the 3-setters this week and all the matches he's played this fall. Win or lose tomorrow, you gotta give major props to Davydenko. It's astonishing that a guy 5'9" and 140 dripping wet (I know, he's listed at 5'10" and 154, but he looks a lot smaller ... and the camera's supposed to add 10 pounds?) can compete with all these much taller beefier players.

Good point - only one of the top 4 in the semis, and none in the final. But JMDP and Davydenko definitely deserve to be there. Hopefully both guys have just enough gas in the tank to play a decent final.

Yeah he showed no nerves today too. And even better he showed lots of personality, humour, and joy after the match too. And I feel this whole week he had been playing with and showing more emotion. Good for him, so well-deserved. Pretty amazing that he even made the YEC being sidelined with injuries earlier in the year. The endless talk about the betting scandal seems like ages ago now.

2010 should be a great year for tennis.....I can't wait!

That's exactly right..so a Predictions Thread for 2010 is now open

So I find out earlier this week that my cable company now has the Tennis Channel...right as the tennis year is ending. Needless to say I won't subscribe until the big pre-AO tourneys kick in.

The only tennis I got to see live because of lack of coverage and holiday get-togethers was the second set of the final. There was one long deuce game on Davy's serve, but other than that, he never looked worried.

I think he may have found a weakness in DelPo's armor. When JMDP does his best "old-Roddick" impersonation, where he stands about 20 miles behind the baseline, Davy made him look silly with the serve out wide, pretty much in both the deuce and the ad court. And what I also noticed was that even with topspin, landing in the big guy's wheelhouse, it seemed less of a problem on the backhand side, especially with better, sharper angles.

Now that DelPo appears to have Nadal's #, and possibly the Fed's, and others...that's how I would coach them against the big fella. If you have to hit topspin (either because it's so natural for your style of play, or because of what might be dictated during a point for defensive reasons), do it with a Rafa-like or Seles-esque angle, to his backhand, as deep as you possibly can...none of this between the service line and baseline nonsense. He'll eat it for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. To his forehand, hit flat and deep, and if it all possible...deep with wicked backspin, and pace...not easy, I know. And if you have to hit something defensively, that you know has to barely crawl over the net and will likely bounce within the service line, put as much backspin as possible...the big guy hates moving forward and stooping lower at the same time. Most tall guys do. And the serve out wide, today at least, seemed to be even more effective than the above prescribed.

Davy seemed calm. There was a patient yet cool tenacity I don't remember seeing from him since Miami of last year. Since I admittedly haven't had the benefit of the coverage that a lot of guys like you, here, have had, he might have had other tournaments with that same "zen power," but I probably missed it if there were such another time. The guy is still a no-slam wonder, with just four SFs to his slam résumé, and the rest being QFs or earlier. Not at all a shabby career, by any stretch, but you'd think with these displays of brilliance, at big events like this, he'd have broken through at least once, on one of the biggest stages by now.

I was waiting for them to practically slow dance at the net.



Aw.

Well, this event seemed a bit ho-hum until Thursday or so, with Delpo's defeat of Fed and the number-crunching shock elimination of Murray. Then suddenly Davydenko was able to get past first one nemesis (because Soderling had plenty of motivation to be the only player to emerge from his group undefeated as well as top his group to avoid Federer in the semis, which he managed by taking a set anyway) - leading to the similarly unexpected elimination of Djoko - and then another in his first-ever defeat of Federer.

I kind of felt like maybe it was finally Davy's time to notch a win over Fed; I think it was more a matter of the (bad) luck of the draw that he hasn't had opportunities to play the Swiss in his more vulnerable seasons of 2008 and 2009, other than a final in Estoril last year when the Russian withdrew with a quad injury. It seemed wrong that somebody of Davydenko's class still hadn't managed the feat when even other tormented longtime Fed victims like Gonzalez and Blake had pulled off their token wins against Fed. There's a group of top players who will almost certainly never have the belief to defeat him as long as he occupies the Top 3 (thinking of Verdasco and Soderling) and I was concerned Davydenko might be one of those, but he proved me wrong. And I completely agree with Rudy above, that Davy was put under extreme pressure following ridiculous winning points from Federer (the one for 0-30 at 5-4 and then for break point when Davy was serving for it at 6-5), and yet unlike in the past he refused to crumble when confronted with Fed's moments of brilliance. It was the right result and despite the usual rush to explain away Fed's losses by his supporters (let's not forget all the theories surrounding how he 'let' Delpo defeat him even though revenge for the USO was clearly on his mind), he was very visibly upset by the loss and cared about winning this event for a fifth time, which would have matched him with Sampras and Lendl.

I might have liked to have seen Delpo win it all as a confirmation of his USO win, but just reaching the final when he had the spectre of Ivanovic hanging over him all autumn (I certainly pegged him wrong) was more than enough to shore up his credibility and set the table to return to his winning ways. He would have broken into the Number 4 spot with the title, but he's still in a good position to take it from Murray in the start of next season, when the Scot has plenty of titles and finals to defend (Doha, Rotterdam, Indian Wells & Miami). I also think Davydenko is a bad match-up for the big Argentine; he's shown us all week that pace doesn't bother him, as well as big serving for the most part, and those are Delpo's biggest strengths. (I'm retroactively more annoyed that Davy let Djoko off the hook in their RR match, since he would have been an undefeated champion if he'd eked that one out.) Davy also humbled him with a straightforward scoreline at this event last year for that reason.

Besides, they have different career arcs unfolding, and it was good for Davydenko, who is 28 years old already, to notch at least one of the biggest titles whereas Del Potro will have several more chances and already has a Slam under his belt besides; kind of like with Nalby (who also hit brick walls at numerous Slam semis despite winning a few big titles), who took this in 2005, it might end up being the only tangible victory that marks them both as having been among the game's elite as each deserved. It will be tempting now to think Davydenko will threaten at the Slams next year but I'm not convinced. The competition is only getting fiercer, and as Federer with his ludicrous Slam SF streak (not to mention seven finals in a row) has demonstrated this year, it is still a herculean feat to defeat him at the Slam/best-of-5 level. Still, the Russian has finished in the Top 6 for the fifth year running, despite missing the first several months of the year, and that's another reward for his consistency and hard work. I'm very pleased for him.

Wacky world finals. Was nice to see Davydenko win it all. He's a very good player, so consistent, and is capable of winning a major.