Full Version: 2010 Predictions, Prognostications and Other Musings
Have at it, Ladies & Gentlemen. Lay out those things you think will happen in Tennis during 2010, or what you hope will happen within Tennis in 2010, or anything else relative to Tennis in 2010 you think should be known
I seem to make a bigger bonehead of myself with each passing year.
In my colorful past, I said things like: Hingis wouldn't even make the top 20 in her comeback, she made it to #6, and I also said the Fed would never reach number one again. Granted, Rafa had the perfect storm of bad things happen to him this summer, making him lose what seemed an insurmountable lock on #1 and the FO itself, but still, I still need to think about how I'm going to out-do said embarrassments.
In my colorful past, I said things like: Hingis wouldn't even make the top 20 in her comeback, she made it to #6, and I also said the Fed would never reach number one again. Granted, Rafa had the perfect storm of bad things happen to him this summer, making him lose what seemed an insurmountable lock on #1 and the FO itself, but still, I still need to think about how I'm going to out-do said embarrassments.
QUOTE(Tennis Guy @ Nov 29 2009, 08:03 PM) 
I seem to make a bigger bonehead of myself with each passing year.
In my colorful past, I said things like: Hingis wouldn't even make the top 20 in her comeback, she made it to #6, and I also said the Fed would never reach number one again. Granted, Rafa had the perfect storm of bad things happen to him this summer, making him lose what seemed an insurmountable lock on #1 and the FO itself, but still, I still need to think about how I'm going to out-do said embarrassments.
Hmmm, let's find the 2009 predictions thread if there was one. Not sure if I wrote them here, but my two predictions for 2009 looked like they were both going to happen. I said Roger would win 3 Slams this year....and yes during Dec '08, that was bold....and I wont pretend to claim that I thought RG would be one of them.
Each year, we also like to predict which player outside the Top 50 will finish the next year with the highest ranking. We usually pick up-and-comers but my buddy and I both picked veterans - Hewitt and Ferrero. I need to double-check the final rankings, but I think my jcf pick came up 1 ranking spot short. Boo hoo hoo.
I'll give the 2010 predictions some thought....stay tuned.
So with the Abu Dhabi Exo upon us, and then Qatar, Brisbane, et al letting everybody stretch their legs prior to Melbourne, it's worth it now to look and see what we might see from the men in 2010.
FEDERER: History made last year, his own Next Generation now up & running, and basically erasing Sampras from Major Titles Held and Weeks as World #1 you wonder what would motivate him. In his extraordinary way he reached all 4 Major Title Matches in 2009 for the 3rd time in his career. Can he manage that again? With Federer, you always have to add "If anyone could, he could". Even though he's not moving like he did from 2004-2006, and the Forehand flies out more now than those days, even his coming back down to earth means he's still better than almost everyone day in and day out especially in the Best of 5 format. He may concentrate now on getting past Sampras at Wimbledon. And that one major is where he'll likely stay the One To Beat for a while yet. The one drawback for him is that his trips through the Majors last year weren't as free from danger as they used to be. He lost two of them in 5 Sets to other Top 10 men, and had to go to ridiculous lengths against another Top 10 at Wimbledon in five. His French Final was cake against the (then) #23, but he had to go to 5 Sets twice and 4 sets twice before he got there. But until someone proves they can knock him out earlier than a SF, he' still a huge threat at the Four That Count.
NADAL: Looked awful through the Indoor Season this year. His prospects for next year would have seemed equally awful but for how he rebounded against Berdych in the Davis Cup Final. Any time you can win 13 straight games against a Top 20 player regardless of the surface, then you've still got game. So look for him to be at peak again for the clay season, chew up and spit out everyone at Roland Garros and fight to the death at Wimbledon. On his wish list is the US Open, but he'll need a little luck in that a number of the bigger hitters like Federer & Del Potro will have to lose before him if he's to have any chance there.
DJOKOVIC: We're into the 3rd Year of the "Djokovic Is The Next Best Thing" and he hasn't been past World #3 yet. Like Nadal, that Madrid Semi Final pretty much spent his reserves for months. He's got plenty of game; he's short on sustaining his head through a season. The Dirty Little Secret about him is that, at the Majors, his record vs. Federer & Nadal is awful, owning only one win from nine meetings against either of them. His overall losing H2H's to both Federer & Nadal exists because of one thing: his Forehand isn't as good as either of theirs. And it doesn't help him that another huge Forehand has evolved in Del Potro to make it even tougher for him. He did get the better of Federer & Nadal three times each last year (but lost to Nadal three times and Federer twice). You kinda get the feeling 2010 is the moment he needs to finally make his mark by winning another Major or risk descending further down the rankings ladder. His huge advantage is that he is equally effective on all surfaces.
DEL POTRO: You gotta love how he not only hung in there at the US Open against Federer, but actually found a way to turn that match around enough for him to get Federer to collapse in the 5th Set. That's a rare quality, and it's all about having the right kind of mind and the right amount of heart. That huge Forehand is a thing of beauty when it works. But he hits it so flat that when it isn't timed right it goes out by several yards. I'm probably alone in thinking at some point soon his height will work against him. The higher Center of Gravity will make for a lot of bending down - especially on grass - which will accumulate into stress on things like the lower back & knees. And also the recovery upward from a low bend will require and extra second or two to adjust his balance correctly, time during which a ball could already get behind him. Changing direction in the North South pattern will be harder on him than East West, especially moving backward to fetch a deep shot from a short one. But until someone can surgically take him apart, he's got more than enough firepower for anyone.
MURRAY: The biggest cropper in 2009. He's the one who had all the hype going into 2009 as The NEW Next Best Thing; The NEW Ascendant to World #1. But instead of reaching World #1 (which he himself mused was more than possible last summer), he's now World #5. His Imaginative and Creative Counter Punching seems to have been deciphered by more players, not the least of whom is Federer, who stemmed the losses by beating him in their last two meetings. That counter punching works better over a 3 Set Match than a 5 Set Match. At the Majors Murray's game basically had him waiting for guys to lose to him rather than him beating them, and that works against lower ranked guys. But since he lacks that Killer Shot (in fact his Forehand might be his weakest offering), he'll have to find something more than he's got now if he's to win that Major he was supposed to win this year.
As for others: TSONGA (where is all that promise from January 2008?); SODERLING (OK, great year - but will you keep it going, or end up sliding down the rankings like Ferrer after that one banner season?); VERDASCO (see SODERLING); DAVYDENKO (you said you'd only win a Major if it was Best of 3 - why don't you "believe"???); CILIC (time for you to step it up - do you have it in you?); RODDICK (can you recover physically and mentally, or will you always have nightmares featuring that bricked backhand volley in the Wimby Final?).
And here's to a full recovery to NALBANDIAN, who has the game and the brain to take out all of these at his best. Seems like 2010 looks pretty good for the Mens' Game.
FEDERER: History made last year, his own Next Generation now up & running, and basically erasing Sampras from Major Titles Held and Weeks as World #1 you wonder what would motivate him. In his extraordinary way he reached all 4 Major Title Matches in 2009 for the 3rd time in his career. Can he manage that again? With Federer, you always have to add "If anyone could, he could". Even though he's not moving like he did from 2004-2006, and the Forehand flies out more now than those days, even his coming back down to earth means he's still better than almost everyone day in and day out especially in the Best of 5 format. He may concentrate now on getting past Sampras at Wimbledon. And that one major is where he'll likely stay the One To Beat for a while yet. The one drawback for him is that his trips through the Majors last year weren't as free from danger as they used to be. He lost two of them in 5 Sets to other Top 10 men, and had to go to ridiculous lengths against another Top 10 at Wimbledon in five. His French Final was cake against the (then) #23, but he had to go to 5 Sets twice and 4 sets twice before he got there. But until someone proves they can knock him out earlier than a SF, he' still a huge threat at the Four That Count.
NADAL: Looked awful through the Indoor Season this year. His prospects for next year would have seemed equally awful but for how he rebounded against Berdych in the Davis Cup Final. Any time you can win 13 straight games against a Top 20 player regardless of the surface, then you've still got game. So look for him to be at peak again for the clay season, chew up and spit out everyone at Roland Garros and fight to the death at Wimbledon. On his wish list is the US Open, but he'll need a little luck in that a number of the bigger hitters like Federer & Del Potro will have to lose before him if he's to have any chance there.
DJOKOVIC: We're into the 3rd Year of the "Djokovic Is The Next Best Thing" and he hasn't been past World #3 yet. Like Nadal, that Madrid Semi Final pretty much spent his reserves for months. He's got plenty of game; he's short on sustaining his head through a season. The Dirty Little Secret about him is that, at the Majors, his record vs. Federer & Nadal is awful, owning only one win from nine meetings against either of them. His overall losing H2H's to both Federer & Nadal exists because of one thing: his Forehand isn't as good as either of theirs. And it doesn't help him that another huge Forehand has evolved in Del Potro to make it even tougher for him. He did get the better of Federer & Nadal three times each last year (but lost to Nadal three times and Federer twice). You kinda get the feeling 2010 is the moment he needs to finally make his mark by winning another Major or risk descending further down the rankings ladder. His huge advantage is that he is equally effective on all surfaces.
DEL POTRO: You gotta love how he not only hung in there at the US Open against Federer, but actually found a way to turn that match around enough for him to get Federer to collapse in the 5th Set. That's a rare quality, and it's all about having the right kind of mind and the right amount of heart. That huge Forehand is a thing of beauty when it works. But he hits it so flat that when it isn't timed right it goes out by several yards. I'm probably alone in thinking at some point soon his height will work against him. The higher Center of Gravity will make for a lot of bending down - especially on grass - which will accumulate into stress on things like the lower back & knees. And also the recovery upward from a low bend will require and extra second or two to adjust his balance correctly, time during which a ball could already get behind him. Changing direction in the North South pattern will be harder on him than East West, especially moving backward to fetch a deep shot from a short one. But until someone can surgically take him apart, he's got more than enough firepower for anyone.
MURRAY: The biggest cropper in 2009. He's the one who had all the hype going into 2009 as The NEW Next Best Thing; The NEW Ascendant to World #1. But instead of reaching World #1 (which he himself mused was more than possible last summer), he's now World #5. His Imaginative and Creative Counter Punching seems to have been deciphered by more players, not the least of whom is Federer, who stemmed the losses by beating him in their last two meetings. That counter punching works better over a 3 Set Match than a 5 Set Match. At the Majors Murray's game basically had him waiting for guys to lose to him rather than him beating them, and that works against lower ranked guys. But since he lacks that Killer Shot (in fact his Forehand might be his weakest offering), he'll have to find something more than he's got now if he's to win that Major he was supposed to win this year.
As for others: TSONGA (where is all that promise from January 2008?); SODERLING (OK, great year - but will you keep it going, or end up sliding down the rankings like Ferrer after that one banner season?); VERDASCO (see SODERLING); DAVYDENKO (you said you'd only win a Major if it was Best of 3 - why don't you "believe"???); CILIC (time for you to step it up - do you have it in you?); RODDICK (can you recover physically and mentally, or will you always have nightmares featuring that bricked backhand volley in the Wimby Final?).
And here's to a full recovery to NALBANDIAN, who has the game and the brain to take out all of these at his best. Seems like 2010 looks pretty good for the Mens' Game.
Ladies first:
1. How will a full season with Henin and Clijsters affect the women's game? Will Henin be able to play at the same level as she did before she retired? Will Clijsters back-up her US Open performance? I think both will play at a top 10 level, but not top 5.
2. Will Venus win another major or should she just retire? I think it will be difficult for Venus to win another major, even Wimbledon.
3. Will Oudin and Wozniacki live up to their US Open performances? Oudin has done nothing since the US Open and she is just too small in stature. I expect nothing from her. In fact, I expect Petrova and or Sharapova to put her in her place if and when she plays them again. Wozniacki might stay in the top 10, but not reach another major final. She will likely have the same fate as all of the other young European and or Russian players that have a big year, then can't maintain the same level due to pressure and or injuries.
4. Will any female player from the United States step up and replace the Williams sisters? I don't think so.
Men second:
1. Will Federer's results start to decline due to his age and or due to the fact that no one fears him anymore? I think so. I think it will be hard for Federer to win another major, except for Wimbledon.
2. Will Nadal's body cause his results to decline? I think that it will happen sooner than later. Especially since he is also not feared as much. Nadal's opponents might play him harder and harder until he is physically worn down.
3. Will Djokovic win another major and will Murray win his first? I think Djokovic will win another major before Murray wins his first.
4. Will Del Potro continue to play well? I don't think Del Potro will win another major next year because of the pressure. He is still not mentally strong. He might win another major at some time in his career.
5. I don't think Roddick will win another major because he is getting older and his opponents are starting to figure out how to return his serve. Without his serve, Roddick is barely a top 20 player.
6. I hope Monfils and or Tsonga can stay healthy enough to win a major or a big tournament.
7. I don't think Nalbandian will do much on his return from injury.
8. Even though he is getting older and is returning from injury, I hope Moya has good results. He will likely retire soon.
9. I look forward to seeing more of Joachim Johansson as he returns from injury. Even though he only has a one-handed back-hand, he has a huge game.
10. Blake has no plan B, is stubborn, is getting older, and has a lot of pride. I think he will retire very soon.
11. Davydenko seems to be a boring person, but I actually enjoy his clean and precise hitting. He is the best ball striker on tour. If he became mentally stronger, he will win a major.
12. Clement is so sexy! Even though he is on his way out of the game, I hope I get to see more of him before he retires.
13. Simon is also sexy! I just hope that he has better results than last year. If not, we will not see much of him.
14. Chardy is another sexy Frechman. Let's hope he plays well enough to get more air time.
15. I also hope to see more of Tursunov.
1. How will a full season with Henin and Clijsters affect the women's game? Will Henin be able to play at the same level as she did before she retired? Will Clijsters back-up her US Open performance? I think both will play at a top 10 level, but not top 5.
2. Will Venus win another major or should she just retire? I think it will be difficult for Venus to win another major, even Wimbledon.
3. Will Oudin and Wozniacki live up to their US Open performances? Oudin has done nothing since the US Open and she is just too small in stature. I expect nothing from her. In fact, I expect Petrova and or Sharapova to put her in her place if and when she plays them again. Wozniacki might stay in the top 10, but not reach another major final. She will likely have the same fate as all of the other young European and or Russian players that have a big year, then can't maintain the same level due to pressure and or injuries.
4. Will any female player from the United States step up and replace the Williams sisters? I don't think so.
Men second:
1. Will Federer's results start to decline due to his age and or due to the fact that no one fears him anymore? I think so. I think it will be hard for Federer to win another major, except for Wimbledon.
2. Will Nadal's body cause his results to decline? I think that it will happen sooner than later. Especially since he is also not feared as much. Nadal's opponents might play him harder and harder until he is physically worn down.
3. Will Djokovic win another major and will Murray win his first? I think Djokovic will win another major before Murray wins his first.
4. Will Del Potro continue to play well? I don't think Del Potro will win another major next year because of the pressure. He is still not mentally strong. He might win another major at some time in his career.
5. I don't think Roddick will win another major because he is getting older and his opponents are starting to figure out how to return his serve. Without his serve, Roddick is barely a top 20 player.
6. I hope Monfils and or Tsonga can stay healthy enough to win a major or a big tournament.
7. I don't think Nalbandian will do much on his return from injury.
8. Even though he is getting older and is returning from injury, I hope Moya has good results. He will likely retire soon.
9. I look forward to seeing more of Joachim Johansson as he returns from injury. Even though he only has a one-handed back-hand, he has a huge game.
10. Blake has no plan B, is stubborn, is getting older, and has a lot of pride. I think he will retire very soon.
11. Davydenko seems to be a boring person, but I actually enjoy his clean and precise hitting. He is the best ball striker on tour. If he became mentally stronger, he will win a major.
12. Clement is so sexy! Even though he is on his way out of the game, I hope I get to see more of him before he retires.
13. Simon is also sexy! I just hope that he has better results than last year. If not, we will not see much of him.
14. Chardy is another sexy Frechman. Let's hope he plays well enough to get more air time.
15. I also hope to see more of Tursunov.
Rafa's going to do fine this year.
I think Cilic should make a quarters-or-better run at the Australian. It's where he broke through on the ATP and he's had more rest/training time than most of the top players.
Amongst really young players, the one to look for this year won't be Dimitrov so much as Oleksandr Dolgopolov Jr.
I'll marinate on 2010 some more.
I think Cilic should make a quarters-or-better run at the Australian. It's where he broke through on the ATP and he's had more rest/training time than most of the top players.
Amongst really young players, the one to look for this year won't be Dimitrov so much as Oleksandr Dolgopolov Jr.
I'll marinate on 2010 some more.
The way Kim played against the sisters at the US Open tells me she's the one to beat. Justine will possibly take over the FO again and hopefully will have a serious showdown with Venus at Wimby...the US Open will for Serena to take back unless she ends up not being able to beat either Belgium in a major tournament...With these four and Maria apparently looking good, the nervous Russians: Elena, Vera, Dinara, and Kooz will have a hard time staying near the top five. I'm really hoping Kooz has a great year...but Kim is my pick to have one stellar year...
Kim and Justine I think will have great success early on. Once they settle back into the grind of the tour, I think that things will even out a bit. Kim's US Open win was great but she had just come back and didn't have a full season of the travel and the injuries and the grind and the mental toll. She came back at a good time and reaped the benefits. So...it would not surprise me at all to see either Kim or Justine go deep and even win the AO. Serena is not consistent enough (and its an odd year in Australia if you believe that stuff) and Venus only does well at Wimbledon and puts in a decent effort at the US Open these days. She's been tripped up early at the AO. A healthy Maria will be nice to see back but I'm not sure about the Russians and Jankovic and Ivanovic. Definitely is going to be a more interesting year with Kim and Justine back full time. Old rivalries renewed and perhaps the ladies taking over again as the more interesting tour (even though they were pretty much always that for me)
Steve Tignor has a good article on Rafa today...basically, it boils down to we've seen this movie before. Every year, Rafa limps through the fall. Every year people predict he's toast. Every year he finds his form and looks dominant for a few months....he just found it and lost it a little earlier than normal last year. I'm not sure how he'll do in Australia, but I sure wouldn't bet against him at the French.
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