The Draws are now out for all three events:

Brisbane: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2010/339/mds.pdf

Chennai: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2010/891/mds.pdf

Doha: http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2010/451/mds.pdf


Roddick & Blake are playing Doubles together in Brisbane, as are Carsten Ball & Sam Querry.

If it seems too soon to start up tennis again to me, an observer, I can only imagine how it feels to the players. I actually think the downtime after Wimbledon, for those players who take advantage of it, is a week longer than the official 'off-season.' But yeah, that's old hat. The news is that things are getting down to business in a hurry. We already have a rematch of Davydenko, the Masters Cup champion, against Federer, the man he defeated in the semifinals on the way that title, in another semifinal in Doha.

I'm not expecting too much. Davy has been making noise about how illness cut down his training time and he's still on meds for it; meanwhile, it's hard to tell how seriously Fed is taking his AO preparations, dropping a set to Gulbis already and losing to Soderling of all people in the Abu Dhabi expo last week (which I doubt will happen anytime soon in a competitive match).

But it's just the hors d'oeuvre anyway. Assuming Fed makes it 14-1 against the Russian, he should have Rafa waiting in the wings for the final. This is actually more significant than the usual marquee appeal in the latest Fed v Rafa rivalry episode. For one, they only played each other a grand total of TWO times last season. That's the least they'd ever played each other since 2005, when the rivalry first geared up. It would also be only the second time they'd have faced each other in a garden-variety tournament (outside of the Slams or Masters events); that was also in the Middle East, in the Dubai final of 2006, which Rafa won en route to defeating Fed four times in a row (and the first of six times they would face each other that year). I'm really curious how that will go. For what it's worth, Rafa won that Abu Dhabi expo last week, and when Murray did that last year he went on to repeat in Doha.

Of course, Davy might still pull the upset, and Rafa might crap out to Troicki. Here's hoping not, though.

Kolya straight-setted Federer, so Federer doesn't play Nadal.

Nadal is looking really sharp and aggressive on hard courts right now, if his scorelines are any indication.

Should be a good AO warmup final.

Perhaps Kolya is the exception to the rule when it comes to players (Ferrer, Nalbandian) not carrying over superb performances from the end of one year into the next year.

When I saw the draw, I was kind of unenthusiastic at the relatively weak field there was given that Fed and Rafa were showing up, with defending champ Murray taking a pass for Hopman Cup, and Davydenko the only other standout among them. I figured the Russian might keep things interesting but didn't quite expect it. Well, did he ever.

He's now won 4 of his last 8 tournaments, a string that has included 3 straight wins against Nadal, 2 straight against Federer (his first ever wins against him), 2 wins against Soderling, a win against Djoko, a win against Del Potro, and a win against Verdasco. That's ten Top 10 scalps (seven Top 5) for those counting. But before expectations start soaring, I wouldn't put it past Davydenko to fall short of the QFs at the AO in an anticlimax, kind of like the last Doha champion before him, Murray. It's also his 3rd-best Slam, with no SFs reached, although he's managed several QFs there. It's really all upside ranking-wise, though, since he couldn't play last year. In fact, with nothing but points to gain until the clay season, he has a good shot at putting himself back into the Top 5.

(Speaking of Murray, Doha and the Top 5, he's dropped to No 5 and Del Potro debuts at No 4 because the Doha points came off. That means Murray, last year's supposed favourite in Melbourne, is going to be a big headache for somebody in the quarterfinals.)

As far as reading the tea leaves where Nadal is concerned, it's a mixed bag. He held championship points for his first title since Rome, which is good news, and he played some of the best tennis in the final that I've seen from him in a while. (Unfortunately for him, Davydenko was able to bring his best as well.) But that's also bad news - he found a way to lose from a strong winning position in a match he was thoroughly dominating (first-set bagel anyone?), which points to lingering confidence issues. It was a bizarre second-set marathon tiebreaker, with both men taking the lead and then giving it away at various times, but he could have put it away. He also blew a 3-1 lead in the decider, as I recall, winning just one more game in fact. It's hard to know what to expect from Rafa as he tries to defend his AO title; anything short of a third SF in a row would be a big disappointment I think.

What the trick is regarding interpreting results in the preliminary events leading to the Australian Open is trying to gauge what each guy thinks he needs going into it. Federer lost to Davydenko in straights, and decided to pass on Kooyong's Exo next week - despite the fact they were holding his place for him there. So he feels as though what he got out of his Doha SF appearance is enough for him to be ready for Australia. The question is - is it? With 15 Majors in the bank he gets the benefit of the doubt.

Murray won Doha last year and passed it up this time in favor of the hit & giggle of the Hopman Cup, ducking all of the other Top 10's in advance of the big show. Is that the kind of preparation that's ideal?? Roddick needed a good showing in Brisbane to basically show he was beyond the knee injury. Check - but letting the 5-1 lead slip to a tie break will need some work. Is he on anyone's short list as a winner of the AO?

Djokovic, Del Potro, Verdasco, Tsonga and Gonzo will all try their luck in the Kooyong Exhibition. It's a stout group on talent and I guess we'll see if it's enough to get any of them ready for two weeks of Best of 5.

Davydenko is on a mini roll, true. But to quote him after winning the YEC in London when asked if he could win a Major: "If they make them Best of 3", said the Russian. He knows all too well he won't make it through two weeks of having to win that 3rd Set from everyone. His press conference after the Doha Final was also odd, basically saying that the Nadal of the 1st Set is unbeatable, but he noticed Nadal lost his concentration thereafter and starting making more and more errors, which helped him win it. But if Kolya doesn't believe he can win a Major - doesn't that pretty much ensure he won't?

As for Nadal, he looked really good all they way up until the last two sets of the Doha Final. The way his wheels came off you'd have to think the lack of confidence won't help him defend this year. But he lost in Doha a lot earlier last year, and then brought Federer to tears in the AO Final when nobody thought he could win it. When he says in Doha that his "calm" isn't there now and he doesn't know if he "will defend his AO title or not" but "we will see in the next six months" if his "calm" returns, it means guts on the court time for The French & Wimbledon from him.

Last year at the AO all the pre tournament hype was mostly centered around Murray as though it was "his time", and Djokovic - who had won the 2008 YEC and looked like he might be able to defend his 2008 AO Crown. And in the end, it was the same Federer-Nadal show from all those French's and Wimbledon's. Since they've won more Majors singles titles between them than the rest of the current ATP Roster combined, don't be surprised if they make it another show between them again.