The Men's Draw is out.

http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/scores...s/ms/index.html

Since the main news is always where the Big 4 - er, Big 5 - er, Big 6 - er, Big 7 - let's just make it everyone who played the London finals - landed, here we go:

Seeded QFs:

Federer v Davydenko
Djokovic v Soderling
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Roddick v Del Potro
Murray v Nadal

No idea what will happen.

Wow...I don't even have a prediction on who will win the men's this year. I'm not going with the old reliable Federer prediction anymore. Interesting matchups though.

For the first time in a while, Federer's draw looks problematic early for him. Andreev, his opening foe, pushed him to 5 Sets at the 2008 US Open; Hewitt took a set off him at the US Open this year, and Gulbis did the same in Doha; Simon has beaten him twice on a hard court; a rejuvenated Baghdatis - who took a set from Federer here in the 2006 Final; two other aged Major Winners from yesteryear lurk in here - Ferrero & Moya; last year's Semi Finalist Verdasco (who has a tough opener against Carsten Ball); and then there's Davydenko - who's beaten him in their last two meetings. Not the kind of draw Federer would have wanted. Not that he can't get through it - but it could easily rack up a lot of additional sets he'd rather not have to play before the Semi.

Djokovic would love to meet a battle weary Federer in a SF, but he's got some rough waters to navigate also. Gasquet, Tsonga and Haas all are in here. And Soderling is gonna have to show me he can make a serious run at a Major again before I become a real believer. The fact he just pulled out of Kooyong isn't the greatest news he could have given before a tournament like this.

Ditto for Del Potro, who's wrist (which was an issue for him after the US Open) sends him packing early from Kooyong too. JMDP, the new World #4 has some interesting matches ahead if his wrist stops him from being his best - Blake, Warwrinka & Cilic are all in his section of this Quarter. And Roddick up at the top looks like he can get himself a very long way here. This might be the first time in a while he hasn't been in the Federer half in Australia.

Murray looks on a collision with Nadal in the QF here. Andy's toughest match early could be Ferrer. I'd have said Monfils, but with more reports of yet another injury (shoulder this time) you never know what that crazy Frenchman will do. Nadal's passage to the Quarters looks fairly uncomplicated. There is an intriguing 3rd Round Matchup in wait of Stepanek & Ljubicic - both now aged veterans of the tour. But that one looks like it could go long - and is that the kind of match you wanna play before you have to take 3 Sets from Nadal? Especially in the Australian Heat? Oy!! With the slower hard court here, I'll guess Nadal will get by Murray, and meet Roddick in the SF. And I'll say Federer Djokovic in the other SF.

Gilles Simon is now out of the Australian Open, withdrawing because his knee still isn't healed.

John Isner had a nice little warmup, huh? He took out Robredo, Monaco, Montanes, and Clement to win the Heineken in New Zealand. It seems like whenever he and Querry do well at warmup events, they fade quickly on the big stages to which they were precursors, but it's must be a great feeling for the big fella to win his first ATP tour title. He's snuck up the rankings quite well last year, I'm sure with this win, he'll go even higher than his already impressive current rank of 34.

I agree 100%!

I can't wait for this tourney to start already. I have been having fun watching some of these classic Aussie Open matches on ESPN Classic and Tennis Channel. I am posting here though because I wanted to share some eye candy I found while perusing the results from quallies.



Unfortunately, hottie Conor Niland came up one win short of qualifying but he won one fan in me thanks to a google image search. Conor's countryman from Ireland Louk Sorensen did qualify however. I looked them up because you rarely see anyone from Ireland playing professional tennis, much less two almost make the main draw of a Grand Slam. I am already looking forward to cheering on Conor at quallies in Flushing.....front row on court 14.

Now let the real action begin so I can actually comment about tennis.

DAY 1 ORDER OF PLAY

Rafa looked alright, though nowhere near as sharp as he did at the start of the AO last year. He needs to work on his serve and his readiness for the shot after his serve.

Now that his hair's shorter and not as thick I wish Nike would design an old school thin headband for him. The do rag is looking goofy.

The good thing for him is that this draw allows him to work on his game as he plays.

I like it when he serves and volleys. He does it more than a lot of players.

It's good that he's having the opportunity to defend this title. Sitting out of Wimbledon had to be painful.

It's 2 am in Australia, and there is still a live match being broadcast on the web. This is crazy. (Love it!). 4 all in the third set. Cilic/Tomic. I am getting very fond of the radio broadcast. Don't miss sitting in front of the tv much. Just broadcast from the computer all over the house. The commentators are a hoot.

Thursday Matches to keep an eye on:

I think Baghdatis has a good shot at upsetting David Ferrer. Baggy's worked his way back to #31 from outside the top 150 and won in Sydney with some good wins (Hewitt, Gasquet). He may have another chance at Hewitt in the next round.

Haas vs Tipsarevic could be a fun match, too (and easy on the eyes).

Here's another twist on the Men's Draw to add drama to this tournament. I'd read on another website that if Federer loses to Davydenko in the QF, Djokovic can become World #1 if he wins the event. Federer will lose points from his Final appearance a year ago, and Djokovic winning will improve from his QF last year to amass enough points to be #1 the following Monday. Nadal, even if he wins can gain nothing. So if the Perfect Storm happens - Djokovic wins the tournament, Federer loses before the SF and Nadal reaches the Final, the rankings the following day will look like this:

1. Djokovic 9950
2. Federer - 9710
3. Nadal - 8510

Stay tuned

That match between James Blake and JMDP was some good theatre. I've been saying for awhile that James should've changed coaches for awhile and I like how his new coach is telling him to come forward more. Those blistering forehands definitely set up opportunity for him to move in and he's not a bad net player. He won a lot of points coming forward last night. It was a really solid match and even though its another 5 set loss for him, he should still take many many positives that he pushed the US Open champ deep in the 5th set. He had his opportunities but JMDP's serve and groundies won him some crucial points. Still...hopefully James' 2010 will be better than his 2009. Very good match.

Goodness knows I love Novak probably more than anyone on this board, but since Novak had like umpteen zillion chances to become #2 and choked every single time, the likelihood that he takes over the #1 ranking is slim to none, and Slim just left town. I was a bit concerned by Novak's 1&2 loss to Verdasco in the Kooyong exo, but Novak looked pretty good in his first-rounder. He's certainly hitting the forehand a lot harder (something he's been working on with Todd Martin), something he shied away from almost all of 2009. I'm hoping that Fed reaches the semifinal; that way at least Novak has a chance of winning the tournament. But wait & see, if Davydenko beats Fed and meets Novak in the semi, I'm picking Nikolai over Novak to get to the final.

Well, looks like Baghdatis is back in town, and he and Hewitt have yet another date Down Under. Maybe this one won't go to 4am, though. Too bad for Ferrer, a former quarterfinalist here, but going up two sets to love has been the kiss of death in the early going this week: just ask Gasquet, Soderling, Llodra or now, it seems, handsome unknown Stephane Robert. Marcos has reached a few finals at smaller events lately and seems a good bet to get his ranking back to the upper tiers before the clay arrives to steal his momentum.

I thought Blake would be a dangerous early-rounder for Del Potro, who is such a slow starter not only in matches, but tournaments as well, and that proved to be the case. He showed he can still mix it up with the Top 10, even if he's probably not going to rejoin them; he should certainly make his way back to the Top 20 soon, and at least will be seeded to have to avoid this sort of situation at the rest of the majors. Delpo really has nothing on his plate here beyond defending his QF points, and he should be able to do that now, especially if Cilic was pushed to five sets by a junior player and Wawrinka has been so distracted by his personal life lately. Interestingly, the Argentine is 3-0 against Roddick, but it would probably be a different story in a best-of-five, especially with the constant injury complaints (add a rib issue to the wrist soreness, I think, given the trainer visits in that match).

Djoko has a remarkably easy draw to the semis, especially with Soderling out now. There aren't a lot of places to hide these days, but he found one. That he still dropped a set to the luscious Chiudinelli (I like this unintentionally ambiguous quote from him: 'I was frustrated, especially at the start . . . because he was really giving it to me' - we've all been there before Novak ) suggests he's back to his old tricks of wearing himself out only to wilt in the semis. Meanwhile, there is a lot of anticipation hinging on the Fed-Davy QF assuming it happens; we've seen how Davy played against him in the majors when he felt he had no hope of winning - ironically could feeling the pressure and expectation to beat him a third time in a row prove just as detrimental?

Great point. Davydenko, having beaten Federer twice in a row now, is carrying some of the Expectation Baggage, the kind of luggage Federer & Nadal carry every time they walk onto the court. It's not suitable for everyone. Look at what happened to Djokovic once he finally broke through and won here in 08; and look at what it did to Murray at the Majors of 2009 - the media mantra was that 2009 was Murray's to own. Neither of them have learned to handle the weight of those expectations fully. Davydenko might start feeling the weight in a small enough way should he meet Federer in the Quarters. Regardless of Davydenko, Federer played so flawlessly last night that it might not matter what Davydenko does or feels. Davydenko is the kind of Counter Puncher which Federer spoke about in his recent interview: he has fewer weaknesses, but also fewer main strengths. It's much harder to keep up the level of Counter Punching needed to derail Federer over 5 Sets than 3 sets.

Heard a stat on Isner that seemed self evident, but it was still kind of ominous: his weight is 247 lbs. Now, that's a lot of pounds to lug around on a tennis court, especially a hard court in a Best of 5 format. I can only imagine the cumulative effect on his body with that kind of running, changing directions, and bending & rising. It's the same kind of thing I thought about regarding JMDP, who probably weighs slightly less, but still at the point where being that tall might not be the best source of longevity at the top of the game.

Dunno about Djokovic. The way he lost the first set had to be disturbing to his team. He was up a break at 3-2, then dropped the next 4 games to lose the set 6-3. Nice for him to come back the way he did, but still, his entourage can't be happy with how that first set unfolded. With as good as Tsonga looked last night, a match-up between them could be quite a scrap. And Baghdatis showed a lot a heart - but cramping again?? Hmm. Not the kind of thing you want recurring in your game

So Isner is back into the second week of a major for the second Slam running. Good for him. Unfortunately Murray eats big servers for breakfast, but he can always hope for one of those infamous lapses of concentration from the Scot. (Kind of like that first set against Serra today.) I was taking a good look at John (not entirely innocently) and yeah, he could afford to trim down a little bit and tone up; compare to the rangy Karlovic, who not only doesn't really look his full height until he stands next to something for comparison (like a ball kid or the net), when he lifts his shirt it looks like he was carved out of marble. Delpo and Cilic of course look like you could snap them in two, although they both hit with considerable power.

Speaking of Delpo, he scraped out of that match with Mayer. The German was the wrong kind of opponent for him at this stage, a canny defender who hits some off-pace loopy shots and has this two-handed Santoro-esque slice. He really frustrated the big Argentine, who isn't playing his best to begin with - witness the second-set bagel. Still, it was pretty entertaining, and it made me wonder where Mayer has been - he played as well as he did the last time I saw him play, when his ranking was in the 30s a few years back. Injuries maybe?

Got to see the Roddick match from last night. That match had all the markings of a match that he would have lost two years ago, before Stefanki came on the scene. Beautiful Lopez was playing some beautiful tennis in the first set, the kind that would frustrate older versions of Roddick into some really rushed, impatient, and downright stupid play. Roddick showed real patience, thought, and maturity last night. He naggingly went after the Lopez backhand and had some infuriating off-paced sliced backhands that went deep to to his opponents by-far weaker stroke. The dividends were obvious.

Roddick version 1.0 would have just tried to blast his way out of that tight match after having lost the first set....and we all know how that would have ended.

I'm surprised by Isner, too. There's been talk of more dedication on his part. Something like someone asking him if he just wants to be another NCAA star who becomes a journeyman-at-best on the tour, or someone who really wants to do some damage. He's certainly been playing like the latter the last four months. Granted, 247 lbs sounds like a lot to guys who are 5'8" to 6'2", but that guy is 6'9"!! That's almost 7 inches to an entire foot taller than an average or average-tall guy. He doesn't look fat to me at all. He might be considered undefined, but certainly not someone I'd consider heavy, though. I never considered Roddick heavy either, before he shed 15 pounds, but look what that's done for him. I'm guessing Isner would gain some mobility with some Roddick-esque weight loss, but let's face it, he's never going to be a Chang-like mover on court.

The bottom half of the draw is looking rather...tall with Karlovic, Isner, Cilic and Del Potro all alive. I suspect only one of them will survive the next round...I'm leaning to Cilic, who seems to be in better form. I think it's time for him to break through.

Isner's now 3-1 against Monfils, which surprises me.

A couple of good men's matches on tap tonight. The media has been all a-buzz about the Baghdatis/Hewitt match-up, but Tsonga/Haas also could be very entertaining.

The Hewitt/Baghs match turned into a disappointment with Baghs having to retire down 0-6, 2-4. Hopefully Roger can spank Hewitt next round. Still can't stand him. Also happy that Tsonga dispatched Haas. Am really waiting for Tsonga to get it going and put his name in the mix as a consistent tier 2 player.

Cilic vs. Del Potro is the match I'm looking forward to most today.

Going in b4, I also picked this as Marin's next breakthrough tourney. But the draw and this particular match up cast that into doubt.

Yet Pony has been 'eh' so far, with injury concerns (unless they're a psych out) and having trouble dispatching players he should be beating more easily. I'll credit Blake for playing excellent and also seeming to have grown up somewhat (never too late, I guess) out there. The new coach might be helping.

Marin's wins have been more impressive than Pony's. The big ? mark for Cilic is mentality and belief. Pony has proven himself and then some in that regard the last year or so. Marin has yet to do so.

It's unlikely, but Nadal could find himself playing Karlovic followed by Isner.

Isner seems more dangerous to me, which is a credit to his improvement over the past year. He is working on his overall game.

But Murray is a bad opponent for big servers, if his record against Karlovic is any indication. He's 3-0, with two of them tight wins, but the most recent one in Cinci was the one I saw, and he used his return game to toy with Karlovic. Isner already has much better groundies than Ivo though, so Murray could be surprised.

Marin!

A gritty win in a marathon match defined by big hitting and shaky nerves.

I find Cilic really likeable. There's something cerebral almost to a fault about him on court. He doesn't have any brattiness to him.

I said the AO would be his breakthrough back at the start of the year. I guess Gilbert did too.

I agree, Cilic is a very mature young man. True, no brattiness, even when Marin was very young. Good thing too, since brattiness is not a character trait that Bob Brett tolerates.

The quality of the match was high, albeit with some shaky moments, but overall there was some truly eye-popping hitting out there. What was most impressive about Cilic's performance was his ability to bounce back in the 5th after coughing up a lung to lose the 4th. Cilic always moved well and had a solid two-hander, but the forehand was wild. Still a few too many errors of the forehand, but his control on that side is much improved. And he seems to be moving better than ever before, especially with respect to the footwork to run around the forehand.

This win was huge for Cilic. He lost twice to DelPo already. Both matches were in Slams, with Cilic fading in 4 sets after winning the 1st. When Cilic lost the 1st set today, I was afraid it was going to be an easy straight-setter for DelPo. But Cilic never let the occasion get to him and was by far the mentally tougher of the two in the end.

Woke up early, got up, turned on TV and it was 3rd set of Roddick/Gonzalez. That sure was a barn-burner. Good for Andy to pull that one out. Good playing by both. Too bad it ended on a double fault; the rest of the match seemed to be pretty high quality.

Isner-Murray turned out to be more "Meh" than I would have expected. Only the first set seemed to be competitive. Murray almost has a sensor that kicks in when he plays big servers. Even when he doesn't succeed against their monster serves, his movement seems to shift into overdrive, even more so with the serve-blasters. He really demoralized the big guy with some sick passing shots when Isner was at net, and seemed 99.9% sure of winning the point, with Murray seeming to have .1% chance of passing him. Murray found that .1% "needle" a few times.

Cilic and Roddick are two happy stories, both with classic matches for highlight reels as well as epics they should be proud of.

The ever-clairvoyant Two-Hander has been seeing this coming for a while now. When Cilic lost the first set, I had my doubts. In most scripts, that's where the Croatian Cutie would just go away. But Cilic seemed to have more belief in this match, even after losing a close first set that boiled down to just a few key points. In the past against Delpo, he seemed to go away, and Delpo gained confidence. Yesterday seemed to be just the opposite. Delpo, even though winning the first set, seemed to have a lot of doubt the rest of the match. In fact, when things were close in the second, did you see how much he was slamming the ball and making mad faces after points in frustration? That kind body language is the type of display people show when they're losing 5-0, not when they're tied at like 3-3. IMO, that indicates that he was expecting the match to be easier than it was, almost like he was mad that the unsaid forthcoming Cilic resignation didn't materialize.

That new toughness of Cilic absolutely sparkled in the fifth. Who wouldn't have been mad after losing the fourth set like that? While Delpo did look tired, Cilic's fortitude was no less stellar. The pace of shot of BOTH players for so much of that match was jaw-dropping. They were exchanging blasting ground-strokes (especially forehands) in exciting rallies for a lot of the match. Interesting, because that's what Delpo lives for. It's when he gets the deep (or even mid-court), sliced, off-pace stuff that he doesn't know how to react. Cilic did give him a few (very few) doses of that, but a lot of points he won with hard-paced winners.

Another evident key was the whole mobility factor. While the commentators blathered on about Cilic's classic serve motion, I'm glad they at least addressed the fact that Cilic seems more nimble and agile. He can change direction of the ball (and his body) better than Delpo. Both of them are big fellas, but it looks harder to hit behind Cilic because he can change direction on a dime better than Del Potro. There were quite a few occasions where Delpo just kept running in the initial direction and conceded the point in that kind of rally, but Cilic was able to "jolt" in the opposite direction when Delpo tried to hit behind him in a rally.

I'm embarrassed to say I fell asleep during the Roddick match, but hey, it was pretty late. I had to go to bed after seeing him lose that third set. I'm going to watch the rest of the DVR'd match. There was some beautiful tennis in those three sets. That Gonzalez forehand was downright lethal. I'm liking Roddick's new confidence. He's been so much more stable and mature on court since the Stefanki-induced weight loss, and whatever else Stefanki's been doing to him. I need to see those last two sets to see how Andy came back, and to form an idea on what his match will be like against Cilic. They have a 1-1 head-to-head (weird, you'd think they'd have played a lot more by now) with BOTH of them having newer confidence. I'm conflicted. Part of me wants Cilic to have (more of) a breakthrough, and another part of me wants Roddick to get at least one more slam before he rides off into the sunset.

It was a great win for Cilic, but I'm not ready to anoint him just yet. Del Potro clearly isn't in the same form he was in at the US Open - whether it's the wrist or something else, it's clear he's struggling. The tried & true axiom of the Men's Draw at any Major is this: you cannot win a Major in the first week, but you can lose it there. That's what happened to JMDP. He didn't have an easy or straightforward 3-set match in the tournament and the cumulative effect of his extended matches left him spent by the time he got to Cilic. That said, Cilic has a real shot to get by Roddick if he can hold his nerve of the occasion. Roddick has a tendency to play a lot of defensive shots in a rally, and he gives up a LOT of space in a Best of 5 Match. In the last few years at Majors he's had guys like Kohlschreiber and Gasquet blasted over 90 winners past him. Even Gonzo racked up over 80 of those last night before he ran out of gas in the 5th. That's dangerous living for Andy.

Murray really wasn't that impressive against Isner. Andy exploited the numerous holes in the Isner game: The Return, The Movement, and The Backhand. So many of Isner's returns (and a fair number of his backhands in a rally) landed squarely on Murray's Service Line that Murray was able to come in and do whatever he wanted (which explains why Murray went 14 of 15 at the Net). And Isner's horrific, lame drop shot attempt when down Set Point in the First Set Tie Break was, well, the sign of what still needs to be learned. Isner was clearly losing energy with each passing set. Late in the 2nd Set Murray played 3 straight drop shots in one game, winning the point each time. Talk about rubbing it right in Isner's face !!

Nadal's effort against Karlovic makes me wonder why he doesn't stand in on the Return against just about everyone? You don't get many chances against the Karlovic Serve (his serve overall is more consistently accurate than Isner's). But when Nadal connected he made the most of his opportunities, often taking the ball on the rise when standing to return less than 5 feet behind the base line. It's rare for Karlovic to go down without at least one tie break set. That Nadal was able to break him 3 times, and yet lose his own serve only once (and that through his own two errors), is telling. Nadal's gotten better with each match here, and owns a decisive H2H against Murray at 7-2, which includes wins on every surface: Clay, Grass, Hard, and Indoor. In fact, over the seven Nadal wins against Murray, six of them have been in straight sets.

Happy to read that Andy made it through - just now watching the match, hoping that Andy can restrain himself from yet another embarrassing tantrum like the one the other day. He just can't shake that petulant attitude even when the match is over and won...I wonder if he can get past Cilic who's rapidly growing in confidence....

I dunno. I kind of got the feeling since the entire AO started that Delpo was in pre-emptive excuse mode. Not saying his wrist wasn't really bothering him, but to play five sets of ground-stroke blasting brilliance kind of makes me wonder how much of a factor it really was. I agree that he probably isn't in the form he was at the USO, but I'm not sure that the whole wrist thing wasn't a mix of real-physical-problem as well as some marketing.





I thought the quality from both of them was less in the 2nd and 3rd set. Murray didn't need to play lights out because Isner kind of went away. That's why I think it was "meh"-worthy, but I do think Murray looked good in the first. Isner had some belief then. Not so much in the last two sets.




I thought the same thing, but it seemed more like a calculated risk than something he could do consistently. I think if he tried that all the time, his return success % would go way down. Let's face it, that's some SCARY velocity coming from Dr. Ivo's serves. I think it was more of a ploy to rattle the big guy on important points, than something that could be done often and with a lot of success. Not sure, but it did show Rafa in a good light. Brave, gutsy, and willing to try something daring on key points. *sniff* Just one of many reasons I love Rafa.

GO TSONGA!!!! First 5 set match and handled it beautifully!!! That was really a great match between he and Almagro and I loved the embrace at the net afterward.

Federer just toyed with Hewitt and I loved every second of it. Lleyton is still a prick to me and always will be so I love to see Federer make him look like a TOOL out there. Davydenko will have his work cut out for him based on form right now. Even though he's beaten Federer recently, this is best of 5 and much more difficult.

Murray/Nadal is the most anticipated match for me of the quarters. Murray has been playing great and I hope he takes Nadal out with a thumping. Its time for Andy to finally make some noise in a major.

Djokovic's last couple of matches have been really dominant. I can see Tsonga beating him again though.

Should be some great matches from now through the final.

Djokovic has had the easiest draw of any of the Top Seeds here, by far. He's played, in order, Tarver (Ranked #74); Chiudinelli (#58); Istomin (#103) and Kuzbot (#86). This kind of draw helps conserve energy, and certainly makes him look like he's "cruising" through his draw. But the down side is he hasn't had the chance to step up to the kind of games he's going to face in Week 2. As for Tsonga, we've been waiting for him to repeat that 2008 form. Maybe this time. He switched racquets. He's now using the Nadal Racquet - the Babolat Aero Pro Drive Cortex.

Federer was never going to be troubled by Hewitt, so that score line isn't exactly news. Hewitt's best days are long since behind him. Next up though for Federer is Davydenko. Given Davydenko's recent form having beaten Federer in their last two matches, this match might have the same Marquee Value as Murray-Nadal. I'm not sure Davydenko has what it takes to steal 3 Sets from Federer, but he's got more than enough to make this a long match for whichever of them comes through it. Kolya out-gutted the uber-fit Hot Sauce Verdasco in 5 Sets last night, so if it comes down to a 5th Set, the lone advantage Davydenko could have is that Federer's 5-Set record is average compared to the rest of his history-making statistics

(Incidentally, for those who subscribe to the printed version of Tennis Magazine, the latest issue has a hilarious page of what inspired The Year in Fashion, contrasting a tennis players photo alongside a photo of what they see as the inspiration for the apparel. The picture of Verdasco & Lopez is flanked by a photo of Sigfried & Roy - SO perfect!!!!! )

Regarding Murray-Nadal, the H2H clearly points to Nadal, leading 7-2, and he's taken out Murray on all surfaces: Clay, Grass, Hard Court and Indoor. More interestingly, in six of the seven Nadal wins, Murray was unable to win a single set! Murray has played in this tournament like he normally does - he's shown the same level from Day 1 here. He'll actually need to improve to win, so his chances rest on how much more improvement he has in his game than what he's shown so far. Nadal's matches have gotten better with each round. When he broke the Karlovic Serve 3 times, you kinda knew he was on the right track. History favors Nadal. For Murray to win he'll need help from Nadal in the form of errors, since he doesn't possess that one single killer shot he can beat Nadal with again and again. In the Karlovic match Nadal made a paltry 15 Unforced Errors. If he posts anything close to that kind of number again Murray will be on the next plane out of Melbourne.

Roddick-Cilic. This one could be an upset in that Roddick should win according to ranking. That said, Marin can serve as effectively, he moves better, and his shots are flatter. Unless Roddick serves lights out, any rally favors Cilic.

This is the first time in years I've looked at a draw and hesitated about pencilling Federer into the semis. The list of players with the demonstrated ability to beat him was always so short (and so elite) that there was rarely a real threat in his quarter. But Davydenko has recently added himself to the list of Fed-beaters and needs to be taken seriously.

That said, three out of five is always a tougher story and I would have felt moe optimistic about Nikolay's chances if he had won that 4th set tiebreaker. He won't beat Federer if his legs are at all tired. He had very fast matches before, though, so...it should be interesting.

Nadal has always been an awful match-up for Murray. He doesn't rely on blasting you off the court with his serve and he can't be goaded into impatience. Murray usually likes to play longer points than his opponents, but if Rafa's physically healthy, that's not going to play to his advantage here. That's not to say Murray can't beat him, but to beat Rafa he's going to have to play a more aggressive match than normal.

I've always thought that one of the things that made the Fed/Nadal supremacy so hard to break was that the style that is most effective against Nadal is generally suicide against Federer and vice-versa.

Those are some interesting points Voicemale and JC. I guess we'll see about Rafa and Andy M. I don't feel assured about one over the other right now. Rafa has played well and at times with some of his old inspiration -- at his peak he is inspired in a natural and unique way. But he's also had lapses in most of his matches, and lapses will be more dangerous in this match.

Federer and Hewitt really is the most boring and predictable matchup imaginable. It's ridiculous how many times it has happened in majors! Federer and Davydenko is more interesting for sure, but I think the oitcome is going to be different than it has been the last two times.

Of today's men's matches I'm actually looking forward to Cilic and Roddick a bit more just because Marin is the one announcing himself. I'm curious to see if he continues to do so because I think he has the game to beat Andy R. It's a matter of mentality and endurance, just as it was with Del Potro, where Marin was shaky many times but perservered. Marin moves better and his groundies are better as long as his forehand doesn't go off.

Marin! It's a pleasure to watch him gradually come into his own. He's not there yet, but his growth as a player has already taken him to the semi of a major. One of the reasons he won today is that he was the more mature player.

In the fifth set when Cilic really found his form again it was lovely to see the way he wasmoving during and after points - almost as if the good points and great shots had him dancing, propelling him forward.

For all of Pat McEnroe's incessant yammering about Murray's new weapons this Nadal loss in progress has everything to do with Rafa's still crippled confidence. He's just not mentally sharp out there, both tactically within points, and more surprisingly in terms of momentum. I realize breaking back is way more of a specialty for Murray than it ever was for Blake, but it's strange to see Nadal take his foot off the pedal and become lackadaisical every time he's about to be in a commanding position.

Most talking heads - Gilbert, Martina, Pat McEnroe - forecast a Murray def. Nadal outcome, but I held out some hope against hope that Rafa would come up with the goods. He hasn't so far. He isn't god's gift to tennis or someone to root against because you're frustrated you can't tap his ass. He's just a tremendous competitor with an extremely mortal game.

He's just not all there yet. I expect him to find his feet again on clay and score tournament wins.

This AO is a bit different from recent ones, unless you view Murray as this year's winner a la Djokovic or Nadal. He's the only remaining player to go through the early rounds unscathed the way they did in their campaigns.

And now, a retirement. Hmmm.

Ugh. What a ridiculous end to a silly match. I can't stand when people constantly question injury time-outs or retirements, basically giving the opposite of the benefit of the doubt, so I can't believe I'm going to do this myself, but I have to call shenanigans on Rafa's retirement. The second-set tiebreaker was a shambles and he threw away countless opportunities on Murray's serve all match long - and when he finally would go up a break he'd instantly hand it straight back - so he finally just cried uncle on a frustrating and dispiriting match. I remember his Rotterdam final against Murray last year, where he basically had no knee left by the third set, and he still stuck it out for a bagel. You're telling me he couldn't tough out three more games? For a knee that gave him no visible problems all tournament long? Wow.

Murray was going to win anyway, which actually annoys me too. This guy kept losing to guys he should have beaten at every single major last year (Verdasco, Gonzalez, Roddick, Cilic) and never failed to disappoint whenever expectations were even a bit high (he even lost his cupcake match against Robredo in the Hopman Cup final after cruising until 6-1, 4-all, letting down his 16-year-old partner Robson, a junior-league player who had toughed out her match win against a Top 30 opponent); but now that he faces the tour's punching bag Rafa, suddenly he has no problem digging out of pressure situations? Whatever. I hope Cilic beats him down again like he did at the USO, although I'm guessing the Roddick match was one five-setter and upset too many.

THUMPA THUMPA !! YES ANDY!!! He played an absolutely brilliant match. Retirement aside, Murray wasn't going to be denied. He upped his aggressiveness, DOMINATED Nadal in the second set tiebreak and deserves credit for this win. Was some great stuff. Yeah Nadal led the head to head but the other stat they showed was Nadal being 1 for 10 against top 10 players in 2009. Murray is still rising so that h2h will change more in his favor anyway. His game is beautiful.
As for Nadal, it absolutely sucks but...well the writing is on the wall and its been there. Tendonitis plus his style of play equals doubts about how long his career will be. He obviously can't change the way he pounds the court but perhaps he may have to seriously limit his schedule and sacrifice the ranking for going for the bigger tournaments. Then again....its the start of the year and here he is again with the knee issues. Big concerns though and I feel bad for him bcuz u could tell by the look on his face that he was thinking "not this shit again" In addition...Nadal loses the number 2 ranking with the loss.
Ashame this match ended in a retirement but all credit to Murray. He put the pressure on Rafa big time.

Urban...if Nadal was up 2 sets instead of the other way around...he might have continued. I appreciate the fact that Roddick continued to play his out. But...shoulder vs knee plus the fact that u don't want to do further damage means he probably did what was best. Still sucks though for Murray who deserved to really celebrate a win over the defending Australian Open champion

Yeah, US, I think it (the retirement) stinks. How far Rafa has fallen in a year. Not so much in ranking (though that will descend some too now) but in the way he plays the game. He just seems to give up. Sure some of it is peaking and physical problems, but I have to wonder what the hell else is wrong.

That's a good comparison. Roddick's ongoing knee issues visibly tweaked him during the Gonzo match and he pulled it out on heart (plus the fact that it's always a waiting game with Gonzo, because he will cool down eventually if you stick around). And he could have thrown in the towel against Cilic, two sets down and with a new shoulder issue cropping up, but actually took him to a fifth. I agree that it sucks for Murray, especially if (big if) he ends up taking the title because of a supposed asterisk on his first major win; however, it's a big deal that he's defeated Rafa in a major before (USO '08) so at least the credibility is still there.

I guess what made it so surprising is that Rafa has visibly toughed out matches to do the right thing before; I'm thinking not just the Rotterdam example I gave but especially of his loss to Ferrer at the USO, when he was wincing on every point towards the end. It's a bad situation now no matter how you slice it; either he's more willing to throw in the towel these days and even potentially showed a bit of ill grace he's not known for, or he really aggravated the knee yet again, this time so early in the season (although he did just have the one month off owing to Masters and Davis Cup) that it suggests it's always going to be an issue waiting in the wings whenever he manages to build up some momentum, and that the second phase of his career has begun, the one where he has to try to sneak wins where he can instead of being consistently at the top echelon.

The obituary on Rafa has been written many times, but this just might be it. Since his rankings slide has officially begun, maybe he should think about skipping February and March entirely (despite the big points to defend at IW) to avoid further knee problems on the hard courts, and when he starts training again, to focus on the clay exclusively. It's his last bastion of strength, and he should throw everything he has into defending the usual assortment of Masters titles (and skipping Madrid this time if necessary) and reclaiming the French Open title. Without those, it's hard to see what he has left. Djoko and Fed still remain his only key rivals on the clay, unlike hard court where the first Top 10 player he meets has his number lately. It might sound silly, but he should draw inspiration from Fed; this time last year, Fed was also on a losing streak against the rest of the Top 5 and the downward spiral threatened. I still think his last two Slam wins were more about opportunism rather than achievement, but it doesn't matter in the matter end which; a title is a title. The fact remains he made a comeback from what looked like a low point, also.

Whenever a player loses early and falls short of the level he had been at, it's obvious to wonder about their motivation, health, mental fortitude, etc. Nadal's going through it now.

Remembering that while he achieved the #1 ranking and won the AO last year, he's never been dominant on hard courts. Good...competitive...quality....capable....but still only one of several top competitors on hard.

Still the man to beat on clay. Obviously, not unbeatable, as he lost to Fed before and then Sonderling at the French. But until someone beats him there, still expect him to win it.

If his heart's in it. Is he just content because he has achieved so much....Wimbledon, hard court major at the AO, #1 ranking.....achieving such incredible goals can leave a player a bit satisfied. So even if he reemerges healthy, will he still have the edge of desire? Can he regain some spark by having more of a break than the long weekend in December?

Up til now Rafa's been on the upswing. But, every player who reaches the top and continues has to figure out how to comeback from the disappointment of losing...to face the challenges of the new up and comers who are hungry...not to mention the grind of the tour and the toll on their bodies.

In that regard he could follow the likes of Courier, who was relentless on court, extremely hard worker...but who ran out of the inner drive and never was as hungry again. Or like Federer who has regained some of his drive and confidence.

Looking at the match stats, Murray's Serving was far better: 13 Aces. Prior to the 3rd Set the winners/errors ratio was just about the same for each of them. What was amazing were the Break Point Chances each of them engineered: Murray went 4 for 10, Nadal went 2 for 12. In less than three sets a total of 22 Break Points hung in the balance, and 16 of them were saved. That tells you how brutally each of these guys played every single point.

One thing I liked is that despite retiring, Rafa didn't convey the impression that he only lost because of the injury. He said that it didn't bother him until the end of the 2nd set and emphasized that Murray was playing really well and had a good chance to win the tournament.

I think he'll beat Cilic. He's going to be fresher and even though he lost the last encounter, I feel that he will be able to coax errors out of Cilic. And, well, he still has a great head:head against Roger, if it comes to that.

Cilic is the only player left in the draw who doesn't annoy me. Except maybe Davydenko. But that's because I watch too much tennis.

Rafa's retirement still strikes me as really lame. I don't like it that in some ways he's reminding me of Henin. But I guess all champs have a fall.

I'm just finding the personae of the top players kinda contrived at the moment. Watching Cilic's contained thought processes and battles with himself and opponents is a lot more compelling to me, even if he's the biggest longshot save Tsonga.

I don't like his chances against Murray though. I don't know whether to hope Murray will win so the UK press can shut up, or dread that Murray will in because it'll make them even more ridiculous.

What do you guys think about today's matches? I predict Federer and Djokovic. I'll be rooting for Kolya.

Davydenko RAPED Federer in that first set. Bent him over and slammed it in raw with no lube!!!! That consecutive semifinal streak is at stake and so is his number one ranking yet again this year. Only the first set and Davy still has to win 3 but wow...that was some sick tennis from Davydenko!! We'll see how his mental toughness is. Can the male #1 pull a Serena out of the hat? Davydenko is so freakin quick and he's not missing.

fedex comes back in the 2nd. davydenko had a chance to be up 2 breaks but blew it. i'm hitting the sack and i expect fedex to win this in 4.

wow, what a choke by davydenko in the 2nd. he totally fell apart. so predictable.

Federer is on FIYAH!!!! According to Gilbert, the court conditions changed and has made it more difficult to hit the ball through the court. But wow......what a drop off!!!! I don't think I've ever seen a bigger drop off ever!! Davydenko now looks a MESS!!!!

frickin disgrace.

serena raised the level of her game and actually won the match.

davy just flat out fell apart.

Oh boy...for a second I thought Kolya of set 1 had returned late in that fourth set. But, Rogelio held his ground and closed it out the second time he had the chance to serve for it. This has to be the craziest day session in Australian Open history. Nothing seemed like a guarantee. Great win for Rogelio and he stayed calm and showed his mental strength. With the win, Fed secures #1. Man...both #1s were really on the ropes today. Roger needs to buy Venus and Serena a Bentley to thank them for playing for 6 1/2 hours, which let the sun go down and thus changed the conditions.

UH Yeah. TSONGA!

Did I read the score wrong or did he just pull out a fantastic 5 set win over Djokovic? No I must have read it wrong. Nothing on here.

Nope. Went back. It's true! Why are you guys not talking about it?? 19 aces to Djoky's 2! Wow. This is great. (Not a Djokovic fan).

Well apparently Djokovic was injured even though Tsonga was more than capable of beating him at 100%. I woke up around 9 something to still see them playing and it was 5-1 in the fifth. Tsonga plays his first two five set matches of his career and wins em both. Congrats to him.