The Draw is out.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/posting/2010/404/mds.pdf

Saw some early round DVR'd matches last night from Windian Wells. The wind sure made for some ugly tennis.

Rafa won somewhat easily, especially in the first set, but he looks to have lost some (too much?) body mass. Not sure if that means strength will be a factor in later sets of matches as the week progresses, but he still looked crafty. Like anyone who's been out for a while, the serve was the most notable artifact, but here's to hoping he steams back into form. Schuettler seemed to kick it in too late in the first set, and they both played much better in the second.

Gulbis looked really good, I thought, against Davydenko, who played brilliantly. Just a couple of breaks determined that one. If Davydenko had let up in any way, or had any lapse, I think Gulbis would have taken it. But Davy's toughness was impressive, he was more patient in the wind. I hope Ernests doesn't get down on himself because of this. After winning his first ATP title a few weeks ago, he's looking very much improved and confident. He should definitely have a ranking in the top 20, if not top 10 with his raw talent.

I would have thought Chardy would have given Querry a tougher match, but Sam didn't seem to be in any kind of trouble. I didn't watch much of it, though. I saw none of the Isner match. Glad the two American big guys are quietly creeping up the rankings (they're both in the top 25, now) and making it to later rounds at some big events.

They showed some of the Cilic match. Marin looked like he'd rather be doing anything else, other than playing tennis yesterday, in his loss to 49th ranked Garcia-Lopez. 6-0 in the second set?? Really? I've never seen him that uninspired. Davis Cup followed immediately by jet lag, maybe? Kudos to his compatriot though! Ancic back from (REAL) mono, again, and taking out Benneteau in three sets, and making it into the third round. There are reasons (other than his obvious good looks) that I like Ancic. It's too bad his health hasn't cooperated.

Fish/Djokovic was pretty bad. The Djoke lost the second set 6-0. I guess these odd bagel sets can be blamed somewhat on the desert wind, but that match seemed to be indicative of a sloppy and erratic day for many of the players in yesterday's matches.

I was also impressed with Davydenko. I figured Gulbis would spring a surprise on him; he's finally been stringing wins together, not to mention a title run at Delray Beach the other week, and Davydenko has been nursing injury complaints. I still remember the Russian barely escaping their clash a couple of years ago in the early rounds in Miami; he went on to take the title that week. So I thought Gulbis would really be gunning for it this time.

I really have no idea what to make of Davydenko. He's kind of the new Nalbandian: several deep runs at majors, a Masters Cup title, a few Masters titles, as high as No 3 in the world. Like with Nalby, I'm really glad for that Masters Cup triumph (and they each defeated Fed to get it), because that's probably going to stand as their high-water mark when all is said and done. I thought just maybe Davy would make a breakthrough, and it looked good right up until 6-2, 3-1, break point against Fed at the AO (very reminiscent of Nalby's semi at the FO against Fed, up a set and a break in '06, when even Fed admitted he thought he was about to lose). It looks like Davy isn't going to fade away, with a shot at making it four in a row against Nadal in the quarters, even though I'm staying away from that bandwagon now that I got burned.

Djoko still unconvincing, kind of like the past two years as a whole. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the final, where he meekly goes down to Murray or Fed.

Agreed that Isner and Querrey are delivering. Considering things looked really bleak back in, say, '08, as far as successors to Roddick or Blake, they've picked up the mantle - not just in Davis Cup, where I thought they did a good job in Serbia given the surface, but in tennis overall. Unlikely to challenge for majors, but they could be locks on the Top 20 for some time, which I'll take. They also fit the new tennis breed of the Cilic and Delpo school, towering big servers who are deceptively good movers and more versatile than you'd expect game-wise. Speaking of, Isner/Querrey took out Ljubijic/Cilic 12-10 in the match breaker in doubles: tallest doubles match ever?

Well, not so fast. Evidently Davydenko is now out of commission with a broken wrist, which he supposedly sustained when he fell in Rotterdam, according to Tennis.com. And his MRI there led to a "misdiagnosis". He's now expected to be out through the entire clay season, including the French Open.

Yeah, I was just reading that. Man, that sucks. Davydenko has been looking good at the end of last year and beginning of this year. I hope he has a quick recovery.

That sucks about Davydenko. Thats a large chunk of time to be missing.

I am happy to see James Blake get a nice, convincing win over David Ferrer in the 2nd round of IW. His ranking has really fallen off, but I hope that a new coach has jump started a resurgence for him. I would love to see him give it one more good run.

Wow..anyone catch the Berdych pummeling of Hot Sauce Verdasco?? He bageled the Spaniard in the first set, committing just 1, ONE, Unforced Error.

The rest of the guys in the draw should take note. Tomas looks like he might be on the verge of putting his incredible talent all together.

I think Verdasco is still carrying some injury or another, the same thing that made him uncharacteristically skip Davis Cup the other week. So the result isn't too surprising as it might have been.

Baghdatis finally got his win over Federer 5-7, 7-5, 7-6(4), escaping three match points across the last two sets, to join Davydenko as players who should have done so by now and did. I'm not sure who's left. But as we know, and as pundits will now rush to tell us, Federer's losses have become meaningless outside of Slams. Yadda yadda. I'm not sure if we want to see Djoko gift-wrapped the No 1 spot like he was the No 2 ranking, though - but I guess he's got big points to defend on the clay as well.

My DVR ran out of disk space before the Fed match, so I didn't see it. Man, I'm bummed, I wasn't expecting Bhaggy to take out the Fed just yet, as he looks like he's on a journey back, not really at a destination. But hey, I'm glad. Especially when Federer makes comments like this:

http://www.cbssports.com/tennis/story/1306...w;pageContainer

"I should never be in a breaker, so why analyze the breaker?" said Federer, a three-time champion in Indian Wells.

Really? Why is that, Roger? Because people should just hand it to you because you're the most magnificent person you've ever met? No one else should be allowed to hold serve against you?

He and Serena make me long for the days of polite champions past.

He's actually correct. Federer had 3 Match Points last night, and squandered each of them with an Unforced Error: A Forehand wide, A Backhand long and a Backhand into the net. He played like he was: rusty, having been off for six weeks. It's not a big deal that he lost. He was probably miffed that it was in the 32's instead of the Quarters or Semis, but 3 years ago he lost his first match in the Second Round here to Canas.

Federer knows the guys nearest to him in the ranking have a LOT of points to defend from now until The French Open. He has the luxury of being able to coast through Madrid, having few points to defend and getting the chance to take any breather he wants to. He'll need it. When Madrid rolls around Federer will have plenty of his own defending to do: titles in Madrid, The French, Wimbledon and Cincinnati, plus a US Open Final. The rest he gets now will only help him when it really matters.

Honestly, I'm kinda glad somebody put Novak out of his misery. He's been struggling so much recently, even more so at this tournament, that it was getting painful to watch. Hopefully he and Todd Martin will be able to get together and figure out what's gone awry with his serve, and if that ever gets straightened out (granted, no mean feat, just ask Maria), the rest of his game will fall back into place.

Roger's out too, but that's no surprise in light of how little match play he had coming into IW. It had to be a bummer for Bags to lose to Robredo after taking out Fed last night, but the letdown isn't all that surprising. I haven't seen a Murray match yet, so can't comment on him, but Rafa was superb today against John Isner. Isner did what he does, which is serve huge. His first-serve percentage was sky-high in the first two sets, but he almost couldn't buy a first serve in the 3rd. Rafa also did what he does best, which is cover the court like a rash, and there were quite a few points that ended in Isner errors because he was going for too much. For now, Rafa's knees seem to be 100% -- emphasis on "for now."

Unless something really weird happens, it should be another Rafa/Andy M final. My gut says Rafa. Even though rankings don't matter that much to Rafa, does the guy really want to drop to number FOUR in the world?!?

Evidently they are. Not only is Nadal into the Quarters, but he & Marc Lopez are in the Semis of the Doubles Tournament.

Agree about the Isner serve deteriorating, but that was a response to the pressure of the occasion. Nadal served first in the final set, and he was holding his serve as easily as Isner. So the pressure was on Isner, and clearly the pressure was getting to him. It was Isner's serve that was precarious: Nadal engineered 9 Break Points in the match, converting two (Isner had only 1 Break Point to look at and converted it). One thing Nadal was doing that's a huge change: he was receiving first serves almost squarely on the baseline. He was getting a large number of the Isner First Serves in play, and I think that kinda caught Isner by surprise.

And here's a lesson about having a Big Serve vs. having an Effective Serve: Nadal won 84% of his First Serve points, but astonishingly won 72% of his Second Serve points . Conversely, Isner won 74% of his First Serve points, but managed to win only 44% of his Second Serves. It's amazing to think that Isner won 10% less points on his First Serve than Nadal won on his.

He's no different than anyone else who's ever let a lead or match points slip away. His dismissive arrogance when asked to talk about the tiebreaker just proves how ungracious he is in losing. There was an article (on MSNBC, I think) where the author said "hey, we should be glad the Federer is bitter in defeat, it proves he still cares." Yeah, let's encourage more unsportsman-like behavior and press-conferences under the guise of "caring." I mean, really, we should just be ecstatic that Serena threatened a lines-woman with foul language and violence, after all, it shows she still "cares."



Saw some of Nadal/Berdych. Nadal is doing better than I thought he would coming back from his knee problems. Berdych had been playing like a madman in this event (just ask Verdasco), and Nadal really was aggressive early on. I only saw the first set, and the commentators were saying how impressively Nadal was serving. He's never been known to get a lot of free points on his serve, but they kept iterating how it's now actually a weapon.

Congrats to Ljuby, gets to have his 31st birthday in the semis of a huge event. Good for him!

I'm not sure what it is about Rafa. It's like certain tournaments were designated in his birth chart as ones where he will do well, and the tennis he plays at them is such a cut above how he plays elsewhere. These are the IW & Miami double (two titles, two finals), the alternating Toronto/Montréal Canadian Open, the AO, FO and Wimby, and the clay Masters events. He's been hitting his forehand and serve with the most authority I've seen in months, and he hasn't been having the brain cramp shot selection he seems to have when playing without confidence (see: London tour final).

It might look like the draw opened up for him, but Lubo gave him a tough time at Shanghai before retiring in the third. But of course, that's not one of Rafa's events.

Looking forward to an all-Andy semi.

Not so fast. Once again Soderling got overlooked. He killed Murray in the first set and took the tiebreaker in the second

Assuming Nadal gets by Birthday Boy Ljubicic in the Semis tomorrow, he'll play for both titles. He & Marc Lopez won tonight and reached the Doubles Championship Match.

Murray could well be feeling the effects of that Australian Hangover when the real big tournaments are at hand. Truth was Soderling ran over him in the first. His missed his first three match points in the 2nd, so closing it showed a few jitters. Dunno what to make of his match with Roddick - but Soderling hits his forehand bigger and his back hand more offensively. They both serve big, but I'd say Roddick serves bigger a little more consistently. Might not see too many rallies in this one

I have never seen Soderling play so well. He moved well and hit the ball so cleanly. I want Soderling to win the whole thing.

At this point in his career, I think Federer will focus most of his attention on the majors.

Well, that was uuuugly. Rafa was cruising until he blew 0-40 in the second set. Suddenly Bad Old Rafa was back, with tentative shots and silly errors, like he'd never left. And he simply came to pieces in the deciding tiebreaker. So a Ljubicic v Soderling final would basically mean this event was a wash and at least I'll have the women's final to watch tomorrow.

It's only fitting that Rafa is probably going to have to look to the clay to find his feet, but it's not his feet or knees that worry me.

His shotmaking choices went from cat-and-mouse brilliant (f'ing Ljubicic up with the slice) to dunderheaded in the late stages of the third set. For some time now he's been great in flashes but not the sustained way he had been.

Strong performance by Ljubicic though -- didn't know the old guy still had it in him! His serve is an Olympian beauty.

I can't believe no one here has brought up Tool Academy, I mean Sampras and Agassi at Hit for Haiti.

Damn, Rafa went away for such a long stretch in the second set. UEs all over the place. He should have put the big guy away when Ljuby was all but resigned to going away. But what I don't understand is that Rafa was holding serve quite easily for most of the third, and Ljuby was having a much more difficult time holding serve in that set. Momentum looked like it was all Rafa until that tiebreak. Rafa picked another bad time to just go away.

Still, there is some feel-good from this. Rafa did better than I thought he would in his return. I had a bad feeling that he might have lost some strength with the noticeable loss of body mass. It wasn't the strength that was missing (Rafa is still strong like bull!!) it was the lapsing match toughness and rust that did him in. If he were to play most guys the way he played in that first set, he'd be back on top. Kind of strange, in his early round matches his serve looked so weak, but the last couple of rounds it looked better than it had in a long time. If he can get it to be consistently hard and deep, like especially in the last rounds, he'd have another great weapon.

How can you not be happy for Ljubicic, though? 31 years old and hanging tough with a 23 year old who all but had that match. Great post-birthday present for him.



Oh, you aren't kidding! It seems Agassi couldn't come up with something as funny as Pete's great impersonation of him, so he went for something really obnoxious, thinking he was being funny. Agassi certainly looked like the bigger douchebag for that, but Sampras didn't seem to want to let it go, either. I can't believe how socially clumsy Agassi's getting as he's aging. Usually, age adds maturity and grace.

The Fed and Rafa did the right thing by letting those two guys play the idiot roles.

Nadal just choked. It was that simple. He no longer "believes" in himself; and the rest of the guys on the tour know it. They smell the blood and know he's not what he was mentally - and on the tour that's the ball game. Nadal choked against Davydenko in Doha when he had two match points and lost it in the 3rd set, and now today. He physically was moving well, he just has no confidence anymore. And that takes a lot more effort and work to get back than physical fitness. Until he gets his head fixed, he will never be the same again. And there's no guarantee he will get it back. It's a precarious time for him.

More and more as I see everyone do it, I just don't really mind that much if the loser is less than gracious...

The tiebreaker was simply odd. Nadal hit a fine first serve to open it and forced Ljubicic into a backhand return error. But then it got ugly. Nadal rushed the net and couldn’t handle a tough forehand volley. "I was more nervous than passive, because I never had to arrive to this tiebreak," Nadal said.

This is virtually the same thing Federer said when he lost to Baghdatis.

Later, Nadal called the loss a fluke, and said that the wind allowed Ljubicic to hang with him from the baseline.

“That's was an accident today,” he said. "That's my feeling, because I was playing enough well to win the tournament. It was important accident, and I have to learn to try to play more aggressive next time and try to convert the opportunities. That's tennis. I played bad. I gonna try to win in Miami.”

For me, it's somewhat disappointing Rafa would call it a "fluke" because that does diminish what Ljuby did. Ljuby hung tough, no matter what anyone says.

Unlike the Fed, though, he was willing to talk about the tiebreak itself without being dismissive. IMO, he was playing well enough to win, like he said, but he admitted he was nervous and played too passively being pushed to a tiebreak. He admitted he did something wrong. He admitted he should have converted points that he didn't. When the Fed loses, he finds ways to focus on the other player's luck, two dimensionality, how their victory over him wasn't that impressive (see the other comments he made after his Bhagdatis win), how statisticians don't know what unforced errors really are....etc, etc... Nadal is usually much more gracious than this, and I wonder how much of it is because of his English...but I wouldn't even put him in the same sentence as the Fed when it come to losing ungraciously.

Reading back on that I apologize for the confusing editing. The italicized segments are taken from Matt Cronin's article on the match. The line about Fed saying something similiar about his tiebreaker was my comment. The next line about Nadal calling his match a fluke was Cronin's comment (so it should have been italicized)..but what Nadal actually said was that the match was an "accident." Cronin summarized this by saying that Nadal was calling his loss a fluke. You are right, that there may have been something lost in the translation.

My larger point is that Nadal and Federer both were essentially saying that their losses were there own fault and weren't particularly interested in giving their opponents credit. I personally think those are the kinds of thoughts that go through the minds of any champion -- heck, anyone who takes seriously any competitive activity -- and I can appreciate the sentiment. The attribution of being ungracious seems to be determined by the extent that a loser vocalizes these thoughts publicly.

The notion that "Yeah I lost, but it's because I didn't play my best," may be an ungracious notion, but I think it is the mindset that is needed to create champions. For the most part, ungracious remarks uttered by tennis players are basically some variation of this notion.

Fox Sports headline calls the match a Ljub Job. Oy.

I take it the lack of reaction around here sums up what an underwhelming result the final turned out to be. Winning the title here, at virtually the only North American event he hasn't won, and what would have been his first Masters trophy since 2006, would have been pretty big for Roddick; but it seems like he's destined to remain a tragic figure across the board, kind of a perpetual runner-up, even when all the cards seemed to have been dealt in his favour, escaping Fed and Murray in his half of the draw and having the other half cleared out for him. Instead he went down to the lugubrious Ljubicic in two hapless tiebreakers. (It reminds me of when he defeated Fed for only the second time ever in Miami a couple of years ago, only to lose to Davydenko for the first time in his next match.)

This outcome does nothing to advance any storylines for the top of the men's tennis game, but I guess there a few things worth pointing out. For one, it turned out to be a Balkan double at IW, with Jankovic picking up the women's title. And Lubo had come up short at three Masters finals before this (granted, four years ago), so it's a nice outcome for him to finally break through now, and a high note to go out on when he gets around to retiring. It's more proof that the serve is the last shot to go in the final years, as Ivanisevic, Sampras, and even Fed to a certain extent (even when his other strengths are subpar, his serve usually remains rock-steady reliable, like in last year's Wimby final) have shown; time and again this week Lubo's serve bailed him out of a tight spot, even when he showed signs of tightness everywhere else in his game.

It's obvious it can't be chalked up as a freak win, since he took the scalps of Djoko, Rafa and Roddick along the way, so all credit to him. I just don't really like the guy - he's said a few too many unkind things about fellow players in the past, such as Rafa and Cañas, and the only more unpleasant court demeanour out there is probably Stepanek's, who at least manages to be entertaining along the way.

What does make me glad is that the No 20 seed walked away with the men's trophy. The odious Pete Bodo was sneering at the women earlier in the week, due to all their upsets in the early rounds, while conveniently ignoring similar upsets like Cilic for the men, even dismissively naming a column on the subject 'March of the Lemmings.' Well, the women's champ was No 1 a year ago this time, while the No 2 seed lived up to her seeding (and has now reached that ranking with her result).

Who would've thought Luby would've been the champ here. He had a great tournament and congrats to him. Sucks for Andy as it would've been a good win for him but he's got to keep plugging away. But it says a lot about his chances at the big tournaments when others comment on his need for the other top players to be on the opposite half of the draw or to go down from his section.

I haven't watched my dvr of the match yet, but I gotta think this loss is kinda devastating to Andy R. Until Novak came along, Andy was #3. Then when Murray hit his stride, Andy dropped another peg or two. Then DelPo wins a Slam, Davydenko starts playing lights-out tennis, and Andy drops even lower. Clearly, Andy R doesn't belong in the same league in the Big Boys, but at least he's the best of the rest, right? He has a golden opportunity to win a Masters 1000, something he hasn't done in almost 4 years. All the Big Boys have lost or are out with injury, his opponent in the final is 31 years old and ranked #26, and he's playing in the US of A. But oh shyt, he LOSES ... to a senior citizen ranked almost 20 spots below him. Man, that's gotta smart.

That Ljubicic won the event at age 31 is truly remarkable, in and of itself. But when you add to it that he took down THREE Top 10 opponents to win this title, then remarkable becomes extraordinary. What an inspiration the guy has been. He plummeted to below #50 in the world after having been as high as #3, and yet was winning a Masters 1000 event for the first time in his career! He'd said he started working with a new fitness trainer and credits that work for his ever improving results since last fall.

A terrific birthday present to him!!

Congrats, Ljuby! I feel badly for Roddick, but Ljuby deserved it. He played bravely in 3 consecutive tiebreakers. Interestingly, in the first set, BOTH he and Andy had serve games where they were down 0-40, yet still managed to hold. That's how well they were both serving.

I don't recall what Ljuby ever said about Rafa, but Canas bore the brunt of a lot of grief when he came back. Some players, some commentators and journalists, and the fans, were quite harsh on the guy, maybe deservedly so. Also, I thought Ivan was very popular with the players as he'd been the European ATP Player Board member for a few years. I guess I don't see what's egregiously unlikeable about him.

Still a feel-good story for the big guy. Like UrbanSuede said, the fact it makes Bodo eat even more of his inane and catty words, makes it all the better.

while watching Ljubicic choke away three points before clinching (lucky for him he was up 5-1 in the breaker when the yips hit him), you realize that winning a Masters 1000 is a REALLY big deal on the ATP Tour. I had kinda forgotten the significance because Roger and Rafa rack 'em up like they win practice sets, but it's freakin' hard for anybody else to win a Masters 1000. Since all the top players are there, you probably face at least one if not two of the Big Four (Five?). And because the prize money and ranking points are huge, all the lower-ranked guys are really hungry. So congrats to Ljubicic!

I think Ljubicic's improved fitness gives him more confidence in the rest of his game, thereby taking pressure off his serve. In Isner's match against Rafa, as voicemale pointed out, Isner kinda freaked out on serve in the 3rd set because he knew that if he didn't win the point outright off the serve, his chances of winning the point dropped considerably. After serving a sky-high percentage in the first two sets, Isner freaked in the 3rd and couldn't buy a first serve. With Ljubicic, it's just the opposite. Now that the rest of his game has improved, the serve isn't so do-or-die, which in turn helps him to serve better. He certainly served great today, bailing himself out of a love-40 game and hitting 20 aces in the match.

Did I mention huge points at these M1000s? Ljubicic succeeded in cutting his ranking in half, from 26 to 13. The other big ranking news is that Rafa and Andy M switched places, with Andy now at #3 and Rafa at (gulp) #4. This is no great surprise since Rafa won it last year and only got to the semis this year, but still, yikes, don't know if I can't get used to seeing Rafa down at #4. It probably won't last long, however, since Andy's defending at Miami whereas Rafa only reached the quarters last year.

PS: congrats to Rafa and Lopez for winning the dubs over top-ranked team Nester/Zimonjic. Nestor/Zimonjic are quite a bit taller than the Spanish duo and hit the serve at least 10 mph harder (maybe 20-30 mph harder than Lopez's), but the Spaniards prevailed. It shows just how good the top singles players are. Must confess, my dvr cut off at 6-6 in the 1st, but I'm guessing it wasn't Lopez that carried the team to victory.