Full Version: Too early for playoff predictions?
Everyone seems to have their own team threads, but I was wondering what people thought about the WC races and who you think will make it to the WS.
I've kinda given up on Kansas City and Colorado.
LXN
LXN
I think all the current division leaders will hang on except maybe the Angels. The wild card teams will be the Astros and Yankees.
Sigh. What will I do in October if neither the Phillies nor the Yankees are in the playoffs? 
(And what would Jeter do?) If the Yanks can't beat Tampa Bay in September, how are they gonna handle that red team?
(And what would Jeter do?) If the Yanks can't beat Tampa Bay in September, how are they gonna handle that red team?
wouldn't be so harsh about the D Rays.....interesting little stat.....
D Rays record before All Star Break - 28-61
after All Star Break - 31-21.
Florida gets wild card in NL
Cleveland in AL
D Rays record before All Star Break - 28-61
after All Star Break - 31-21.
Florida gets wild card in NL
Cleveland in AL
Blueraider, I'd almost lean toward Florida, but they lack that "fire" that they've had in previous WC chases. I certainly won't be surprised if they make it, but I'd have to go with Houston at this point.
FLA's schedule is a tad more difficult at this point as well.
FLA's schedule is a tad more difficult at this point as well.
true....I think houston is a better club, but if they can't find a way to score some more runs...especially when clemens is on the mound, they'll be sitting home.
I think that will be their undoing.
The others - all mediocre frauds. Especially the Mets.
I think that will be their undoing.
The others - all mediocre frauds. Especially the Mets.
I agree with your assessment. But I think the schedule will be the deciding factor. I'm sure the Marlins would love to trade opponents with Houston.
So much of the NL Central looks like a morgue. Other than a few games vs. St Louis (which has owned HOU) and Milwaukee, they've got an easy slate.
The Marlins have way too many games against teams that have played them awfully close. I think HOU will feast on the weaklings while FLA is trading blows in the NL East.
And the Shmetz are as dead as a dodo. Philly is a 2 weeks away from looking for a scapegoat not named Bowa.
So much of the NL Central looks like a morgue. Other than a few games vs. St Louis (which has owned HOU) and Milwaukee, they've got an easy slate.
The Marlins have way too many games against teams that have played them awfully close. I think HOU will feast on the weaklings while FLA is trading blows in the NL East.
And the Shmetz are as dead as a dodo. Philly is a 2 weeks away from looking for a scapegoat not named Bowa.
How about this for a lock, Atlanta does what it always does. It wins the division and then whimpers away in the National league playoffs.
Atlanta has no bullpen, no doubt. Way too many rookies as well. They'll probably survive the 1st round, then get crushed by St Louis.
I'm biased, but I think the Marlins are going to pull it out. The only thing that's certain is that they get the chance to play the teams they need to beat. They just took 3 of 4 from Washington to virtually eliminate them. Next, 3 at Philly. Then 4 at Houston. Should be a great week of baseball. Willis and Beckett had back to back quality starts...AJ Burnett gets his chance on Friday to make it 3 in a row. Go Fish!
Those games between FLA and HOU in Houston maybe what determines the race. Unless they split. It would be amazing if one of the teams could be sweep, which could extinguish all talk of a WC race.
What are folks' thoughts on the Yankees?
What are folks' thoughts on the Yankees?
Yes, it's too early.
for our mets, it's too early. a year too early.
Considering how close many of the wild card chases are, a number of teams will have to push just to make the playoffs and may be spent by the time the playoffs, in fact, begin. That bodes well for the Padres, who have been--at best--mediocre but will be well-rested as no one in the NL West seems to mounting any kind of challenge. It is to laugh. In all seriousness, baseball needs to implement a rule that forbids teams with losing records (and it is highly conceivable that the NL West champ will have a losing record) from making the playoffs.
~Adam
~Adam
Well, both the Yankees and the Phills are winning right now, so perhaps maybe I spoke too soon?
Aw, no I didn't. These are only Game 1s of way-important series.
Aw, no I didn't. These are only Game 1s of way-important series.
You may have spoken too soon about the Yankees but not the Phillies.
QUOTE
blueraider:
Florida gets wild card in NL
Cleveland in AL
:cool: <--Copman Hopin & prayin and wishin & hopin.. eek!
Florida gets wild card in NL
Cleveland in AL
QUOTE
Adam:
In all seriousness, baseball needs to implement a rule that forbids teams with losing records (and it is highly conceivable that the NL West champ will have a losing record) from making the playoffs.
Might the above opinion change if it ends up being the Dodgers who win the NL West with a losing record? In all seriousness, baseball needs to implement a rule that forbids teams with losing records (and it is highly conceivable that the NL West champ will have a losing record) from making the playoffs.
I had asked about this possible scenario a couple weeks ago on another thread, ie if a team with a losing record has ever been a division winner. Nobody answered, but I did a little research and found that the answer is NO, so it will be a first if San Diego 'accomplishes' this feat. The Texas Rangers 'won' their division in 1994 with a losing record, but of course that year was incomplete and doesn't count. The worst record for a division winner was the New York Mets in 1973, who took the NL East title with a .509 record.
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Joe in Philly:
Despite the fact that following today's victory the Dodgers are a mere 6 games back of the Padres (who are again a .500 team), no one can possibly believe my blue boys will overtake San Diego. Even the Dodgers themselves are talking about next season and whether Jim Tracy will be back. But to answer the question, no my opinion would not change: no team with a losing record should be in baseball's playoffs; in hockey, everything should be done to keep my Kings in contention for as long as humanly possible (I think that may have been agreed to by owners and the players' union--clause 643b, paragraph 11. wink )QUOTE
Adam:
In all seriousness, baseball needs to implement a rule that forbids teams with losing records (and it is highly conceivable that the NL West champ will have a losing record) from making the playoffs.
Might the above opinion change if it ends up being the Dodgers who win the NL West with a losing record? In all seriousness, baseball needs to implement a rule that forbids teams with losing records (and it is highly conceivable that the NL West champ will have a losing record) from making the playoffs.
~Adam
Not to worry, as long as the Padres play the rest of the NL West they should finish at or above .500 
Atlanta will win the East and then break my heart once again by failing miserably in the NLCS. Houston will win the NL wildcard by the hair of its chinny chin chin and then lose to Atlanta who in turn will be crushed by St. Louis.
On the AL side, Yanks will win the wildcard, beat the ChiSox in five and lose to the BoSox in 7.
World Series - BoSox over St. Louis again. Six or seven games this time.
On the AL side, Yanks will win the wildcard, beat the ChiSox in five and lose to the BoSox in 7.
World Series - BoSox over St. Louis again. Six or seven games this time.
All I know is it would really suck if I'm the Marlins, Phillies, or Astros who gets left out of the playoffs while a possible sub .500 Padres team gets in.
Somethin is flawed about this system.
Somethin is flawed about this system.
In the event of a tie:
QUOTE
The New York Yankees won a coin flip Monday and would host the Boston Red Sox if a one-game playoff is needed to break a tie for the AL East title.
If game is needed to break a tie between Cleveland and the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central, the Indians would host, and if the Los Angeles Angels and Oakland need a tiebreaker in the AL West, the game would be at Anaheim.
In the event a tiebreaker is needed for the wild card, New York and Oakland would play at Cleveland, and Oakland would play at New York.
If three teams finish with the same record and a tiebreaker is needed, the teams in the same division play a tiebreaker for first place, and the loser meets the team from the other division in a one-game wild-card tiebreaker.
If a tiebreaker game is necessary in the NL wild-card race, Philadelphia would host Houston and Florida, the Marlins would host Houston, the Astros would host Washington, and the Nationals would host the Phillies and Marlins.
If game is needed to break a tie between Cleveland and the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central, the Indians would host, and if the Los Angeles Angels and Oakland need a tiebreaker in the AL West, the game would be at Anaheim.
In the event a tiebreaker is needed for the wild card, New York and Oakland would play at Cleveland, and Oakland would play at New York.
If three teams finish with the same record and a tiebreaker is needed, the teams in the same division play a tiebreaker for first place, and the loser meets the team from the other division in a one-game wild-card tiebreaker.
If a tiebreaker game is necessary in the NL wild-card race, Philadelphia would host Houston and Florida, the Marlins would host Houston, the Astros would host Washington, and the Nationals would host the Phillies and Marlins.
The A's have lost 9 consecutive coin tosses!
Is there some irony in the fact that Team Moneyball can't win a coin toss?
Haven't they done studies on how often heads vs. tails comes up? wink
San Diego is now 2 games under .500 yet still lead the Dodgers and Giants by 5 games. What a farce!
San Diego is now 2 games under .500 yet still lead the Dodgers and Giants by 5 games. What a farce!
Houston, we have a problem! Man, the Marlins are within a week of taking this WC by the throat, with 2 more vs. HOU before heading home to play PHI for three.
Status report! Well, clearly the wilder races are in the AL.
NL: The Braves and Cards have clinched the East and Central. The Padres are two below .500 but lead the Giants by 3 pending tonight's game between the two. The Astros are very close to clinching the wild card.
AL: The Yanks and Red Sox are tied in the AL East and both teams are tied with Cleveland for the wild card. The Indians still trail the fading White Sox by 2 in the AL Central, with both teams meeting for 3 in Cleveland while the two AL East leaders battle in Boston. It's very possible that 3 of the 4 playoff berths won't be decided until at least Sunday.
If the Angels beat the A's tonight they'll clinch the AL West. The Moneyballers have already been eliminated from the wild card.
NL: The Braves and Cards have clinched the East and Central. The Padres are two below .500 but lead the Giants by 3 pending tonight's game between the two. The Astros are very close to clinching the wild card.
AL: The Yanks and Red Sox are tied in the AL East and both teams are tied with Cleveland for the wild card. The Indians still trail the fading White Sox by 2 in the AL Central, with both teams meeting for 3 in Cleveland while the two AL East leaders battle in Boston. It's very possible that 3 of the 4 playoff berths won't be decided until at least Sunday.
If the Angels beat the A's tonight they'll clinch the AL West. The Moneyballers have already been eliminated from the wild card.
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Joe in Philly:
If the Angels beat the A's tonight they'll clinch the AL West. The Moneyballers have already been eliminated from the wild card.
The A's lost and have been eliminated. Congrats to the Angels. They'll fold in the 1st Round.
If the Angels beat the A's tonight they'll clinch the AL West. The Moneyballers have already been eliminated from the wild card.
...and somewhere Jim Allen faints, half-expecting an Angels choke. wink
Padres beat the Giants and their magic number is 2 to clinch the NL Worst. They could do it Wednesday or Thursday night by beating the Giants either night. They need 3 wins to finish at .500 and 4 wins to be over .500. eek!
Padres beat the Giants and their magic number is 2 to clinch the NL Worst. They could do it Wednesday or Thursday night by beating the Giants either night. They need 3 wins to finish at .500 and 4 wins to be over .500. eek!
So if the Red Sox, Yankees and Indians all finish with the same record, what happens? Do the Yanks and Sox play a one gamer for the division and then the loser play the Indians for the wild card?
Man, the AL is a mess right now. Whole lotta tension as we enter the final weekend. It almost makes the whole WildCard thing (purists read: travesty) worthwhile.
The HOU-ATL series will be more entertaining than the STL-SD series. I'm taking the Cards to sweepity-sweep the Padres, but suspect the Braves-Astros series will go 5 games.
The HOU-ATL series will be more entertaining than the STL-SD series. I'm taking the Cards to sweepity-sweep the Padres, but suspect the Braves-Astros series will go 5 games.
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FireMikeTiceNow:
So if the Red Sox, Yankees and Indians all finish with the same record, what happens? Do the Yanks and Sox play a one gamer for the division and then the loser play the Indians for the wild card?
Yep. If there's a three-way tie, Yanks and Red Sox play Monday with the Indians getting the loser on Tuesday.So if the Red Sox, Yankees and Indians all finish with the same record, what happens? Do the Yanks and Sox play a one gamer for the division and then the loser play the Indians for the wild card?
~Adam
The White Sox have clinched even though they are only 3 games up with 3 to play against the Indians because they won in head-to-head meetings, right? So how come the Yanks and Sox will have to play a playoff if they tie? After the 3 game set this weekend, they'll have played each other 19 times so someone will ahve won the season series.
I think the Yanks and Red Pox only play a tiebreaker if they are in a 3-way tie with Cleveland. If they are only tied with each other the Yankees win the AL East because they would have the better head to head record. I believe Boston only wins the AL East outright by sweeping the Yankees. At least that's what I think - it's all very confusing.
Right. Here are the many and various Baseball Playoff Scenarios at a Glance.
Here are the many and various Baseball Playoff Scenarios at a Glance.
Okay what Munson Man said is right. But I don't get why that is. If NY, BOS & CLE are all tied, it seems head to head between NY & BOS should come into play first to determine the division winner and then play the one game playoff for the Wild Card. It looks less likely to happen that way after last night, but determining the division winner should come first, IMO.
Up until a coupel of days ago, it was possible that NY, BOS, CLE & CHI could have all finished with the same record. What a mess that would have been.
[ October 01, 2005, 09:25 AM: Message edited by: FireMikeTiceNow ]
Up until a coupel of days ago, it was possible that NY, BOS, CLE & CHI could have all finished with the same record. What a mess that would have been.
[ October 01, 2005, 09:25 AM: Message edited by: FireMikeTiceNow ]
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