No rest for the weary!

There are several grasscourt tennis tournaments underway already, but the biggest news of the day is that Kim Clijsters has pulled out of Wimbledon.

Damn...

This has surpassed what we talked about months ago, re: the Belgians and the Williams not meeting again until the semi's or finals of a Slam. Can we go a calendar year without any of them squaring off?!???

Or, does it matter anymore?

The event at Birmingham is chock full o' Russians. Draw here:
http://www.wtatour.com/global/includes/Tra...ngham_draws.pdf

The men have two events this week, Gerry Weber in Germany and Stella Artois in London.

Stella has Roddick, Agassi, Henman, Hewitt, and Flipper. The Draw:
http://www.atptennis.com/en/common/TrackIt...004/311/MDS.pdf

The Halle, Germany event has Federer, Safin, Schuettler, Haas, and Pavel. The Draw:
http://www.atptennis.com/en/common/TrackIt...004/500/MDS.pdf

That sucks about Clijsters. hopefully she'll be ok for the hard court season.

Queen's has Agassi, Hewitt, and Roddick all on the same half so that should be interesting. Could have an Agassi vs Hewitt quarter but who knows if Andre is ready. The other side you have Coria, Henman, Grosjean, and Schalken so a pretty good tourney especially for not even being an INT Gold tourney and only 800,000.

Halle has a really interesting round 1 matchup in Bjorkman vs Safin. Federer has lots of points to defend cause his 19th result is only 25 points so he could lose some points if he lost early.

Should be interesting to see how Timmy responds as he has always had a full week and more to prepare for Queen's and this is not the case this year.

I'm bummed that Clijsters has withdrawn from Wimbledon, but I'm hoping that she'll be healthy enough to contend at the US Open. She has a great game for hardcourts ... for any surface really ... and at the beginning of the year, I thought that she was going to have her Grand Slam breakthrough at the US Open. *shrug*

There have been quite a few upsets in Birmingham already ...

Kremer over Serna 2 and 2
Perry over Strycova 3 and 3
McCain over Pisnik in 3 sets (Pisnik doesn't have much power, but it's a big surprise ... WOW!)

I think that Petrova has a rather stiff draw ... Asagoe in the 2nd round will be a test, and either Hantuchova/Golovin/Likhovsteva in the 3rd. I think that she can do it, but she's quite the head case.

The next 1/8th doesn't look too difficult ... Dechy is slumping and while Kirilenko could advance, I don't think that she'll get past the quarterfinals.

I'll go against my better judgement and say that Daniella gets back on track this week and advances to the quarterfinals.

Tanasugarn is my pick in the next 1/8th, but Maleeva could cause her some problems. Tammy needs to get her points here because she's going to drop like a stone after the US Open.

Loit is going to advance out of the next 1/8th. Daniilidou is off of her game, but Morigami should take her out in straight sets. Go Akiko!

Molik is large and in charge in the next section. She has a very workable draw and the grass suits her game. I don't like her getting past the quarters, Sharapova is looming, but she can do some damage here.

Sharapova has a great draw ... especially since Krasnoroutskaya lost to Sequera in 3 sets. C'mon Maria ... wint he event.

Dokic ... *sigh* ... she should beat Perry in straight sets, but given her current level of play, she'll lose 3 and 0. J-DO ... what's wrong with you! Now that Pisnik is out of this 1/8th, I have to go with Obata ... O-bata, O-bata, O-bata!

Finally ... Schynder should advance out of the bottom 1/8th. She doesn't really have anyone who should hurt her, but her game isn't conducive to the grass. C'mon Petty Patty!

Quaterfinals:
Kirilenko d. Hantuchova (Won't happen, but a man can dream)
Loit d. Tanasugarn
Sharapova d. Molik
Obata d. Schnyder

Semifinals:
Loit d. Kirilenko
Sharapova d. Obata

Finals:
Loit d. Sharapova (Repeat of the US Open last year.)

Nick

i just love that my fondness for japanese women's tennis players is rubbing off on you, Nick! Sure the Russians are coming, but has anyone noticed what a good year the Japanese women are having? When's the last time someone else ever said "Asagoe will be a test"??

ps> did anyone see how well the Japanese women's soccer team played against the USA team?? talk about a wake up call before the Olympics...

[ June 07, 2004, 12:15 PM: Message edited by: curtj ]

Ten thoughts on grass:

1) Would they PLEASE put a Masters Series event on grass PLEASE?? I know it's easier said than done, but to me, you could pour some $$ into Halle and make that the German Open ... Nobody in Germany cares about clay anyway, do they?

2) I'm really impressed by the number of Asian players at Queens Club: in the main draw you've got Srichaphan and Yen-Hsun Lu - BuJeff and I saw him beat Morrison at Champaign last fall ... he's a lanky Taiwanese dude with a nice serve and big results on the challenger circuit this year (already 6 finals including 2 wins (one at Joplin)). Oh, by the way, he beat Wayne Arthurs in the first round and could have his way with Coria in the second (if Guillermo even shows up). Lee and Suzuki make it through the qualies - which had 3 other Japanese players, Qureshi (Pakastan), Udomchoke (Thai - defeated by former junior star Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the 2nd round of qualies), Punna (India), and a couple of Brits & an Aussie with names that seem South Asian.

3) Roddick/Agassi just beat Ginepri/Merklein in doubles. If that's not enough, Gasquet & Grosjean are also teaming up, as are Hewitt & Flip and Goran and Little Goran (Ancic). Man, if only these teams could hold for Wimbledon, and the low-star-power teams would lose early on ... Anyway, Roddick & Agassi is just AWESOME.

4) Good to see Fish win his first-round match in Halle, even against a wildcard. He's the only American in the draw. London has 7.

5) Umm, Dent lost in the first round of Queens Club, umm to a qualifier. Gambill also lost, to Karlovic, 7-5 in the third-set tiebreak (sounds like an Ivo match).

6) Roger's draw isn't so hot: Thomas Johansson (first-round matchup of 2 of the last 3 Aussie Open winners), then Youzhny, then Clement or Popp (German, always dangerous on grass). Haas beat Lopez ("one to watch at Wimbledon" says a reaching Tennis magazine), and two more "to watch" kids - Joachim Johansson and Robin Soderling - face off in the first round. Winner to face Schuettler (or Hernych, a qualifier).

7) Kirilenko & Sharapova teamed up to dominate the #2 seeds Li/Sun 6-4 6-0. Sequera (my new favorite player) and McShea could face Molik & Serna in the second round. Other teams include Dechy & Hantuchova, Daniilidou & Srebotnik, and Krizan & Tu. Did anyone ever fully explain what's going on with Krizan & Srebotnik? Does anyone really care?

8) Great, tight first round matches! Almost half went three sets, with some significant upsets - 3 of the four seeds that played were upset (who is this Kelly McCain and how soon until she breaks into the top 100?), Anne Kremer (YAY!) beat Serna convincingly, Jamea Jackson took care of Santangelo in two sets, Keothavong beat Marrero in a third set tiebreak, Tanasugarn FINALLY won a match, and of course, my new favorite player Milagros Sequera (who had to qualify) had a nice win over Krasnoroutska, 6-0 in the third, and gets Stosur next, who is beatable. Go Milagros!! Still to play: Yoon Jeong Cho (welcome back) faces Hantuchova, Kirilenko qualified and gets Vinci, and Golovin faces Likhovtseva ...

9) Losers in the first round of Birmingham qualies: Angie Widjaja. Meilin Tu. Alex Stevenson.

10) If I'm not mistaken, this is Sharapova's tournament to lose. But Molik could make a stand in the quarters.

Go Milagros! Go Paradorn!! Go Ginepri!!!

[ June 07, 2004, 05:27 PM: Message edited by: bridgeportjake ]

Hadn't looked at the doubs draws yet and now I'm especially eager to check 'em out now that b-portjake references to the teams of Agassi/Roddick and Kirilenko/Sharapova.

Like many here, I'm torn between Molik and Sharapova. I want both to do well. I want Tim Henman to win this week, too, which is kinda quirky for me, but, damn it, I want Our Tim to win that damn Wimbledon title this year, and there's no better way for him to build buzz by winning here.

I'd be totally cool with Mardy Fish winning Halle, or Federer. Federer is much more likely to win at the event, of course, and I'd actually be quite, quite OK with a little Henman vs. Federer tension heading into the event.

Holy ... Bartoli apparently broke her hip at Birmingham - she was lying on the court for an hour before they were able to sedate her and cart her off. AN HOUR!?!? That's not cool. You think it's tough watching a motionless football player for 15 minutes.

An hour.

This will be a tough recovery. Best of luck, Marion...

bpj ... Here is a summary of Bartoli's injury from a spectator at the event:
http://www.wtaworld.com/archive/index.php/t-118385

Meanwhile, on Court 4, during Anne's match i think it was, I could see that one of the players in the Penetta v Batoli match was injured (it was Bartoli I heard) and she was crowded by first aiders and ground staff for about 20 or so minutes. Apparently they didn't want to move her until the Paramedics arrived to take her to hospital - I heard she went for a shot, ended up doing the splits, and twisted, and thus injuring her hip - the reason for them not being able to move her.

Where did you read that she broke her hip? I wouldn't be surprised if that is her injury, but I haven't seen that anywhere on the web.

Nick

[ June 07, 2004, 06:45 PM: Message edited by: The_Hammerman ]

what a bizzare start to Tuesday already. Agassi loses and Flipper loses to some Brit ranked in the 800's.

Rusedski, Arthurs, and Max all lost yesterday as well. The grass-courters are all going down it seems like. GO HENMAN

From the ATP site:
Russian giant-killer Igor Andreev denied Andre Agassi's quest to claim his 800th ATP match win with an upset 4-6, 7-6(2), 7-6(3) victory at the Stella Artois Championships in London on Tuesday. Andreev, who took out defending champion Juan Carlos Ferrero at Roland Garros, extended Agassi's losing streak to four matches. (emphasis mine)

Wow.

Wimbledon is going to be f**king awesome. Henman looking like he's playing his best tennis ever, Agassi playing for pride, Moron Ivanisevic playing his last tournament before retiring, and Roger Federer looking to rebound from his French Open loss. What a great, great "plot" heading into the event...

This is CRAZY!

Justine Henin Hardenne is out of Wimbledon, too. Will Myskina get the No. 1 seed?!? If not her, then who?

The story re: Justine:
http://sports.yahoo.com/ten/news;_ylc=X3oD...ov=ap&type=lgns

Go Amelie! Maybe without the pressure of a nation on her shoulders, she can pull a Myskina and win ...

BMan, just off the top of my head, if Serena still gets the injury protected ranking, she's the clear #1 seed.

Great day for Vinci, as she "upset" fellow qualifier Kirilenko and then teamed with sorta-paisan Gagliardi to beat Huber/Perebiynis in dubs. Gagliardi is out of the Top 100 in singles (she's at 116, a spot below Harkleroad).

Also in doubles action in Birmingham, Zheng recovered from a tough loss to Mikaelian and teamed with Yan to beat Dechy/Hantuchova, and Daniilidou/Srebotnik took out Asagoe/Callens.

Hantuchova, however, did manage a win over the "been gone too long" Cho. wtatour.com says Cho's favorite book is the Bible and her favorite actor is Sandra Bullock. Kremer continues her very nice play by taking out afore-mentioned Mikaelian. Molik survived 2 sets against Pennetta. Sanchez Lorenzo impressed against the tough-on-grass Els Callens. And Jill Craybas took out 13 seed Claudine Schaul!! Yay, Jill!!

The Bjorkman/Safin match looked pretty damn good, 7-4 in the third set tiebreak.

Anyone but me think that Shenay Perry may have a shot to beat Dokic tomorrow? That would be a huge win for a young woman who's on a little bit of a roll...

Andre: I don't care what you do, just start freaking winning some matches, okay?

Thanks.

curtj ... I didn't even notice that I was favoring the Japanese players, I just looked at the draw and went with my instincts. I really like Sugiyama, but I think that she had an incredible year last year and frankly, she played a bit above her level. A Top 15 finish in 2004 would be a great accomplishment for her. I think that we are in the midst of the Asian Invasion and next year, we're going to see 4 Japanese & Chinese players in the Round of 16 at a Slam, probably Melbourne.

NOOOOOOOO! Justine is out too. There isn't a chance in hell that Myskina will be #1 at Wimbledon. I think that she'll be, at worst, the #4 seed in England ... behind Serena, Venus and Mauresmo. *shrug* The real question for me is who will be #1 ... Venus or Serena?

NOOOOO! Masha Kirilenko lost to Vinci. Roberta, don't you dare take down the Russian vixens when you won't do anything in singles to back it up! GRRRRR!

Golovin-Hantuchova will be an interesting 2nd round match. I would like to think that Daniella's experience will carry her though, but Tatiana has a powerful game. I'll go with Dani in 3.

MOLIK WON A MATCH! WOO HOO! I know that she's had some horrible draws at the bigger events, but in order to remain a seed at Wimbledon, she needs a good result here. Jankovic-Ruano Pascual could be a difficult test, but I have faith in my favorite Harley Honey from Oz.

bpj, I think that Perry could beat Dokic tomorrow ... I'm actually expecting it to happen. Shenay has the game, but she has problems closing out matches. Strycova is a nice scalp, but a win over Dokic would push her into the Top 100. C'mon Shenay ... beat the flake!

Nick

It'll be very, very interesting to see what the seeding committee does. I think Myskina will be very mum on the seedings, even if directly asked.

Here's how I would suggest the seeds shake out:
1. Mauresmo
2. Davenport
3. V. Williams
4. S. Williams
5. Myskina
6. Capriati
7. Dementieva
8. Kuznetsova
9. Suarez
10. Farina Elia
11. Sugiyama
12. Zvonareva
13. Sharapova
14. Petrova
15. Smashnova
16. Rubin

Under the seedings above, players neither jump nor drop more than spots than their actual ranking.

The actual rankings are:
1 Justine Henin-Hardenne
2 Kim Clijsters
3 Anastasia Myskina
4 Amelie Mauresmo
5 Lindsay Davenport
6 Elena Dementieva
7 Jennifer Capriati
8 Venus Williams
9 Paola Suarez
10 Svetlana Kuznetsova
11 Serena Williams
12 Nadia Petrova
13 Ai Sugiyama
14 Vera Zvonareva
15 Maria Sharapova
16 Silvia Farina Elia
17 Anna Smashnova Pistolesi
18 Chanda Rubin

What is going on? JHH is now out of Wimbledon also? Strange gets stranger. I guess we shouldn't be surprised if Monica makes it back in time and WINS. God, I may have to eat my words that Myskina will not win another Slam.

B Man ... Whatever you're smoking, please send that my way.

Wow ... *shakes head* ... I love you B Man, but I must strongly disagree with your point of view. Here is my take ...

Now, We all know that the All England Club looks highly upon past success at Wimbledon when making the seedings. The fact that Lindsay has lost to Venus in her last 3 matches at Wimbledon makes it tough for me to believe that Davenport will be seeded ahead of Venus. Compound that with Lindsay's injury scare ... it's not going to happen. I will be extremely surprised Venus and Serena will be seeded below Davenport.

Mauresmo as the #1 seed ... I don't see how they will award her the #1 seed when she has yet to get to the finals of the event. *shrug* The Williams sisters should be seeded ahead of her, even with their current lackluster rankings. MoMo has potential (I HATE using that word, but ...) to win the event with her attacking style, but the way that she was destroyed by Serena a few years ago will linger in the minds of the selection committee ... even if it was 2 years ago. Amélie didn't play last year due to injury and again ... grass court records heavily favor the Williams sisters over MoMo.

In addition, the committee is going to have an incredibly difficult time justifying Myskina as a #5 seed. While I think that she should be behind JenCap ... *GASP* I know, I'm defending JenCap. No, this is NOT a sign of the Apocalypse... they will be trashed by TPTB for seeding the highest ranked player outside of the Top 4. *shrug* Myskina won't say anything about the rankings, she'll toe the party line saying that it will be settled on the court, but I could imagine a number of people saying ... What's the point of the rankings prior to a Grand Slam events if the seeding committee isn't going to abide by them? *shrug* NOTE: I don't agree with that logic at all, but I can imagine multiple people saying that.

If they really want to go by the grass court prowess of an opponent instead of the rankings, they should drop Pistolesi out of the Top 20 seedings and promote Conchita into the Top 16, as well as promoting Pierce & Raymond while dropping Zvonareva and Schnyder. *shrug*

Expecting some backlash ... which is fine with me. This is a discussion board ... let's discuss.

Nick

Edited to add that prepositions are lovely things.

[ June 08, 2004, 02:42 PM: Message edited by: The_Hammerman ]

I think that the committee should just go with the rankings. If they go too far and bring up players too far or too little it will ruin the tournament and unfairly give advantage to those players who have not proven in the last few months to be seeded where they should be.

I would have to disagree with placing Davenport at #2 though- she hasn't proven to be playing well enough for that seeding- I'd understand the Williams sisters being placed in the Top 2- but Lindsay would warrant no better than a #4 seed....

I say let the seeds go completely by rankings- the players that deserve to win will find their way to the final 4.

I would love for a stat/history freak to dig up info. re: Sampras's seeding vs. his ranking a few years back when his rank dropped but his seeding was kinda high.

With my projections, I was honestly just trying to be fair. I do agree with the argument that's thrown out every year (which is similar to what kick is saying): players work hard to improve thier ranking and end up having thier ranking undermined by the seeding committee.

Even though Serena won last year, I'd be pissed if I were a player to see Serena seeded 1 or 2. She's 11 in the world, primarily because she elected to play so few events even when she was healthy.

If Lindsay puts her body on the line more often than Venus and Serena and gets a higher ranking because of her efforts, then I'm all for closing the gap between her seeding and her ranking...

I'm not sure anyone will really WANT the No. 1 seed, though, perhaps other than Serena or Venus. It'll be way too much added pressure. No offense, but I actually and honestly don't think Nastya or Mo would last more than two rounds as the No. 1 seed; as any other seed, they have the potential to play great tennis. As the No. 1 seed, they'd buckle under the pressure.

I think until someone can beat Venus and Serena at Wimbledon then I have no problem with them being 1 and 2.

Men's side the top 2 are obvious Federer then Roddick.

now Coria is 3 Nalbandian 4 Henman 5. If you are going by grass-court rankings Henman should be 3 since he has made the 2nd week 7 straight years and beat Nalbandian last year. some other people that will be bumped up I think are Hewitt, Fipper, and Schalken. I still think JCF should be a top 8 seed cause he was in the round of 16.

I'd seed them
1. Federer
2. Roddick
3. Henman
4. Nalbandian
5. Coria
6. JCF
7 and 8 could be anyone really moya, hewitt, agassi, schuettler probably 2 of those 4.

I already posted my picks for the men's seeds, and they're similar...I may have put Nalbandian 3 and Henman 4, but which is which is irrelevant. I'm guessing Agassi and Hewitt get those last two top 8 spots. I doubt Moya will be seeded top 8, even if he bothers to play this year.

As to the women, I really don't know what they'll do. With the Belgians absent, it's a lot easier to seed the sisters #1 & #2. Myskina's never made it past the fourth round here, so I can't see them giving her a #1 seed. She might even get pushed down to #5 behind Mauresmo and Davenport, who have more grass court credentials.

Hewitt may need to save his entire career here. The grass will be alot more forgiving than red clay for Serena and I think she emerges as the favorite.

[ June 08, 2004, 05:28 PM: Message edited by: JC ]

Some thoughts on this week's draws. First, the men's tournaments, which are much more interesting:

Agassi is starting to alarm me. Has he gotten old that suddenly? I was pleased to see him play a warm-up, but with only one match, it's not going to help much...three consecutive losses to nobodies has got to hurt his confidence.

Fortunately, the Stella Artois has no lack of star power. I was pleasantly surprised to see Guillermo Coria in the draw. Nice to see him make an effort on grass. With Wayne Arthurs unexpectedly falling, Coria might even have a shot at getting through a couple of rounds. I doubt he can get past Sebastien Grosjean, though.
Henman's draw is *quite* friendly, and he should at least make the final. Roddick's draw is tricky but not impossible...Todd Martin or Mario Ancic could cause problems next round. Grass is probably Srichaphan's best surface, but he hasn't been in good form lately. Hewitt looks to have a pretty good shot at the semis, and it's worth noting that Roddick has never beaten him, although they haven't played in some time.

The Halle draw is even more intriguing. Tommy Haas must be in good form to get past the aberrant grass-loving Spaniard Feliciano Lopez in straight sets. Federer torched Thomas Johansson, and should get by Youzhny and Clement or Popp. Mardy Fish has a very friendly draw, and anything short of a semi-final run would be very disappointing. The bottom quarter is the most intriguing of all. Bjorkman has already taken out Safin, and will play Kiefer. Both players thrive on the grass, and Kiefer has shown signs of life this year. Joachim Johansson's big serve makes him a good candidate to upset Schuettler (or anyone else, for that matter) on grass. Any of those four players might make it to be Mardy's semi-final opponet.

Most of the top women have shunned Birmingham, and will presumably be in action next week. Hantuchova trounced Yoon Jeong-Cho (who seems not to have won a match in ages), but now faces Golovin, which should be interesting. This really should be Petrova's tournament to lose, and I'd like to see her shed her "best player never to win a tournament" status. Tanasugarn, who has been in awful form but loves grass, won and could challenge Maleeva. I like the winner of that mach to make the semis, though Daniilidou is a possibility. Sharapova has a grotesquely ugly draw. I expect Stosur to be dangerous, now that we're off clay, but Sharapova should be able to make it past her. Molik is quite good on fast surfaces...Molik/Sharapova figures to be a great match-up. The bottom quarter is a joke. Patty is not very comfortable on grass, and there really aren't any impressive players in that sector. Obata has had some good results on grass in the past, but hasn't done much on any surface lately.

One last comment: while the Williams sisters *should* be the best players in the world on grass, I hesitate to call them the favorites. They're form is quite questionable. We all got excited by Venus winning two tournaments, but it's worth remembering that she only had to beat one top 10 player to do it. Myskina beat more top players at the French Open than Venus and Serena combined for the year.

If Myskina plays a similar style that she played while on clay, I think that it could get her to the semis. She showed that she can step in and hit some solid shots for winners and no-getums and her flat style of shots should suit her to the grass similarly to the Japanese players. Although I think she is extremely vulnerable, I would not be surprised to see her to the quarters if the draw is favorable. She could also play some toughies and lose in the first round- but I think if Myskina is the top ranked player for the past 12 months available- and just winning the French, I don't see them not giving her the #1 seed. My guess:

1. Myskina
2. Mauresmo
3. V. Williams
4. S. Williams (this would be smart to avoid a SF pairing of the 2- gives them a final potential without overly seeding them- as when Wimby seeds the women, they usually strictly look at the rankings)
5. Davenport
6. Dementieva
7. Capriati
8. Suarez

Although I would not be surprised to see any other top women fall out of the draw- particularly Davenport. So my backup #8 goes to Kuznetsova

Wwhile Wimbledon usually goes by the rankings on the Women's side, this is a VERY unusual year. The Top 2 players in the world are out of the event due to injuries, so I wouldn't be surprised if things are changed. Mark my words ... Serena & Venus will be seeded ahead of Myskina. I don't see it happening any other way.

Myskina has the game to do well on grass ... groundstrokes ... but her volleys and serve are going to hold her back quite a bit. I could see quite a few power players stepping in and hitting a ton of return winners off of her serve, *shrug*. Unlike the clay, her serve is going to be much more vulnerable.

BTW ... I'm not saying that they're the favorites for the title, but they have the best track records on grass in the event, *shrug*.

As for the Top 10 player commentary, we all know that the Williams sisters ... or anyone for that matter ... can't control who they play at the event ... I mean, it's not as if she's necessarily dodging Top 10 players, she's playing Tier I and II events and they're not facing Top 10 players, *shrug*. You are correct ... when they did face Top 10 opponents, Venus lost to Myskina and Serena lost to JenCap ... but again, it was on their worst surface. *shrug*

Frankly, I hope that the Williams sisters will play more tournaments so we can end this tiresome debate because until they play more events, quite a few people will take objection to the seeding issue. *shrug* At the French Open, I didn't really support their elevated seedings, but at Wimbledon ... where Venus has appeared in 4 straight finals and Serena has appeared in 2 straight finals, winning both of them, they should receive preferential treatment.

Nick

Why the hell do I even try to proofread my posts ... *smirk*.

[ June 08, 2004, 07:51 PM: Message edited by: The_Hammerman ]

Hammer-

I have no problem with seeding them higher than their rankings- but I do have a problem seeding them #1 and #2 when they are ranked #8 and #11. I think bringing them into the Top 4 would be very fair- and as I suggested- seeding them 3-4 would give them the same advantage as 1-2 seedings by not having to play each other in the semis. I think Myskina will get the #2 seeding. Mauresmo will get the #1 seed because she has made the semis the past 2 years- but I think they will give Myskina the #2 seed ahead of the Williams'... moving them up ahead of everyone would simply be a bit too much- they deserve Top 4- but not 1 and 2.

Just my 2 thoughts.... I do believe that this year should be more creative in seeding because the Top 2 players are gone, though.

Regarding weak serves on grass- I thought that sometimes grass makes it easier to hold serve at times because the balls will skid more on the grass ang make it harder to get the sitters- I think even Dementieva's spin serve may help her on the grass because the ball will skid. I think it will help Myskina a bit if she remains with high-percentage and accurate serves like she is capable of.... I remember Gabriela Sabatini's serve being quite effective when she sliced- and Conchita's serve also gave some players fits- like Martina in the upset final.

[ June 08, 2004, 09:17 PM: Message edited by: kick ]

This is where I disagree about weak serves … while the court will help the server, it will provide more assistance to those players with a strong return of serve.

BTW, it should be noted that players are much more aggressive off of the return than they were when Gaby was a contender at Wimbledon and during Chi Chi’s run as well. I would say that the days of a player getting by with a weak serve are long gone … but as we have seen at the French Open, it isn’t entirely true.

A topspin serve is going to kick on the grass, which … while the height will be lower than on hardcourts, the ball can still be readily attacked. It’s not like a slice serve where the ball will have more horizontal movement on the bounce than vertical movement. In addition, the ball will sit more than any other type of serve and the speed of the courts will help the returner even more. Bottom line, Dementieva’s serve is going to be easily attacked.

Slice serves are a different story. The ball will skid much more than on other surfaces … so the ball will remain low to the court. However, a slower serve can still be attacked because if the receiver is in proper position, they will be able to be aggressive with the ball. When Myskina’s serve is coming in around 60 mph, the returner will be able to get into the ready position sooner than a 90 mph serve.

Now, I presume that Venus and Serena are adept at reading the ball and telling what type of serve is coming in … especially since most of the girls on the tour utilize the same type of serve as their second serve … whether it be slice or topspin ... so they'll know what position they need to be in so they can strike the ball properly. Furthermore, Serena/Venus have been clocked at hitting service returns at 80+ mph. Given their groundstrokes … this will put their opponent on the defense off the bat more so than on other surfaces.

Therefore, Myskina’s weak second serve can still be readily attacked … even though she does slice the ball on her second serve. I believe that the grass courts will favor the returner more because the speed of the court will help the return of serve just as much as the serve itself. *shrug* Weak serves are going to be fodder for players with powerful returns.

Nick

[ June 08, 2004, 09:44 PM: Message edited by: The_Hammerman ]

Just a sidenote: Remember in the U.S. Open semifinal match between Venus and Hingis? When Venus was serving she was choking so bad that her serve was hitting midbox and the ball was sitting up better than in a tee-ball game? I remember just laughing at the nerves and how she reacted... but it is good to see how she handles that sort of pressure now.

Well you know the WTA and Wimbledon do NOT want Venus and Serena on the same side of the draw, and this is a perfect time to assure that they are on opposing sides. They have to be seeded 3 and 4, of course I would love to see them seeded according to their ranking at 6 and 9.

[ June 09, 2004, 05:52 AM: Message edited by: shore ]

Most people are hypothetically seeding Venus & Serena side-by-side, whether arguing for 1&2 or 3&4. If they do end up side-by-side, says here it will be as No.'s 1 and 2, but I'm not sure that's what will happen.

I think it's very likely that Serena will get the top seed - she's the two-time defending champion. I could see Venus only being elevated to No. 3 or No. 4, though. The Wimbledon seeding committee is so fickle that I wouldn't at all be surprised to see it go something like:

1. Serena Williams
2. Anastasia Myskina
3. Venus Williams
4. Amelie Mauresmo
5. Lindsay Davenport
6. Jennifer Capriati
7. Elena Dementieva
8. Svetlana Kuznetsova

Guess we'll find out soon enough, in any event. But that wouldn't preclude the Williams sisters from being on opposite halves of the draw.

PS - Gaby at Wimbledon in 1991 hit almost exclusively the slice serve; it stayed extremely low on the court and gave people fits. Bud Collins said there was so much slice on the ball that it "jiggled in the air." Even when Gaby played attacking returners like Capriati in the semi's and Graf in the final, they didn't punish it the way you'd imagine it could be punished. They both overhit it alot ... although when they connected, yes, they spanked serious winners off of it.

But Gaby generally defended the lack of pace well on all surfaces. And, honestly, she played "return & volley" tennis to reach the final of Wimbledon, waiting to approach the net off of short balls in the rallies or chip & charging on the return. Her run to the final had nothing to do with that serve. I don't think any current players with weaker serves have the all-court game or net ability to play the style of tennis that got Sabatini to the final

Well, for all practical purposes in THIS case, there's really no difference between being seeded anywhere from #1-#4 - and assuming both Williams sisters are elevated to that level (as they should be, given the discretionary power of the committee and the fact that their long layoffs are really the only thing that kept them out of the Top 6), the only question becomes:

Does the committee intentionally seed them so they MIGHT be on opposite sides of the draw, or so they'll DEFINITELY be on opposite sides of the draw?

The Guardian imagines it will be Serena, Myskina, Mauresmo, Venus. Sounds fair to me. Myskina should be given some props for winning the most recent Grand Slam - remember, she'd never been past the 3rd round there before either.

Am I mistaken or would a theoretical first-round loss by Serena propel her out of the Top 25?

Does anyone know whether Shenay Perry is getting a direct entry to Wimbledon? I'm still not 100% confident in understanding the entry system in the Grand Slams, but isn't it the top 100 players after the French? She's at #88 now, and will rise after beating DOKIC (yay!) and making the 3rd round at Birmingham. The Obata match for the quarters is a HUGE opportunity for the young American.

Daniilidou & Hantuchova both retired from their matches. f**king injuries!

Unfortunately, my new favorite player Milagros Sequera had a crushing defeat against Stosur today. It's not really THAT bad since she woulda gotten hammered by Sharapova in the next round, and the ranking points here are negligible between the 2nd & 3rd round, but DAMN! Up 6-0, then losing the second set 4-6 (no idea if she had lead or not), and finally losing a 3rd set tiebreak 7-5. DAMN DAMN DAMN! 9 double faults did her in. Oh, Milagros!

I'm telling you, seeing Sanchez Lorenzo's serve at Roland Garros ... if she keeps her head together, she could compete well.

Damn you Robby!!! That was a meek loss to Hyung Taek Lee. And Hanescu, I had you in the semis, and you bow out to this dude Flanagan?? Who is he anyway? Todd Martin goes down to Ancic (creating a very intriguing matchup between Mario & Andy tomorrow). Lu (whom Jeff & I saw at a challenger last year) downed Coria in straight - not a surprise, honestly, but too bad for him they don't award quality points in the ATP. Oh, and currently Henman's getting bitch-slapped by Beck in the first set.

Go Perry! Go Tammy!! Go Paradorn!!! Go Andy + Andre...

Oh, for what it's worth, after this tournament, Suarez falls out of the Top 10 in the rankings (she's got her points from Vienna coming off). And Petrova, with a tourney win, COULD beat out Serena & the Kooz for the #9 ranking.

Oh, and Sprem I think is out of the Top 34 after this week (Vienna comes off). She's by far the biggest disappointment of Roland Garros, IMO (given Justine's viral problems).

So much to comment on!
I'm going to have a full lunch break...
But some quick news first:

Team Hottie-Hot-Hot, errr, umm, I mean the doubles team of Mardy Fish and Andrei Pavel beat the world reknown dubs team of Bjorkman/Woodbridge today at the Halle, Germany event. Wooooowwww.

Haas pulled out his match, too.
PHEW!

RESULTS
- Perry won, in two sets, as Hammer predicted.
- Hewitt eased past Lopez, and Srichaphan won today, too.
- Henman, however, lost in three, falling to Karol Beck in a third set breaker.
- Andy and Andre lost thier dubs match today, too. It was good to even know they played together, and I hope they had fun. And that Andre got some solid practice.

WIMBLEDON CONJECTURE
- If we're willing to elevate Serena, how high should Moron Ivanisevic be seeded? Top 32? Top 16? He was out with injury, too, after all...

NEXT EVENTS
- I was curious about what *next* week would look like given the men's struggles to find their "grass game" - and - the fact that last year's Ordina open finalists (Kim Clijsters d. Justine Henin-Hardenne) won't be there
- I can't find a good site anymore to find player acceptance lists...anyone have leads?
- All I can find on the Ordina Open is that Mauresmo, Petrova, Dementieva, Pierce, and Richard Krajicek's cousing Michaela are playing... The men's draw allegedly includes Nadal, but I don't think he's better yet from that ankle injury, and Schuettler, Schalken, Verkerk, Robredo, Hrbaty, Safin, and Sluiter.
- I thought Agassi or Henman may try to squeeze one more match in a Nottingham, but they're not listed (yet? can they still as for Wild Cards or some other form of late acceptance?). The players committed so far are listed on the Nott'ham site, http://nottingham.lta.org.uk/sa_03gallery.htm , and include Srichaphan, Fish, Dent, Spadea, Bjorkman, Kiefer, defending champion (??!??!?) Greg Rusedski, and the adorable Italian Volandri...
- I can't find anything on Eastbourne, at all. Rubin d. Martinez in the 2003 final. Are both playing this year?

BMan, the Eastbourne site is at eastbourne.lta.org.uk, and the draw is here. So in answer to one of your questions, yes, both Conchi & Chanda are playing there.

Too bad for the organizers of Queen's Club - not only is Henman gone, but two of the "star" doubles teams (Agassi/Roddick and Gasquet/Grosjean) are gone and the Bryan bros are up a set on the Ancic/Goran team.

Okay - is it possible that today is the single greatest day for Asian tennis players? I mean, individually, you've got Date getting to semis of grand slams and stuff, but how impressive is it that seven (out of seven) Asian players won in tournaments in England? Not only won, but beat seeds - Asagoe over #1 Petrova, Morigami over Daniilidou, Lu over Coria, Lee over Ginepri ... plus Paradorn, Tanasugarn, and Obata. Wow! I suppose if all 7 can get to the quarters tomorrow, that will be considerably more impressive. Still, hats off!

Some very interesting discussions about the seedings at Wimbledon. Really is a bit of a headache. I agree that Serena will definitely be 1 but after that, who knows.
Starnge but I had a dream last night that Capriati wins this years Wimbledon. I'm not into dreams and all the psycho-babble that goes with it but this was very lucid. Wonder if I should put a small bet on whilst the odds are pretty good.
I wonder why the Williams aren't playing in a warm up - they have played at Eastbourne before, although many years ago. Should be an interesting tournament and I wonder if they will find their form in time.
Anyone coming to London for Wimbledon at all this year? Let me know if you are.

By-the-way. Check out Wimbledon.org this year - last year it showed loads of clips from matches of years gone by and it states that they will show repeats of matches and other classics.

Info I received by e-mail:

WIMBLEDON PLUS & WIMBLEDON PPV

Wimbledon Plus
Wimbledon Plus is a broadband video service that will allow subscribers to have access to a range of premium content from The Championships, such as player interviews, up-to-the minute news and highlights, live audio commentaries, over 150 Golden Moments from the Wimbledon Archive and depending on your location in the world, you may gain access to delayed matches from this year's tournament.

Wimbledon Pay-Per-View
Tennis fans can watch archive footage from Wimbledon, including classic matches, official films and documentaries online for just 50p each. There will be more than 50 videos available on the service including Official Films and Classic Matches.

Visit www.wimbledon.org for more information.

agreed, jake, it is a banner day for asian tennis. asagoe really did prove to be a test for petrova. i can't wait until there will be a thread about how sick we are of seeing two japanese women play eachother in the finals.

*snicker*

Whatever you ate last night MikeT, I FORBID you to ever eat that dish again. Nightmares such as that should be avoided at all costs.

bpj ... ITA, great day for Asian tennis. The number of challenger events in Asia on grass is higher than any other part of the world and we are seeing its dividends this year. Asagoe had a great Wimbledon last year and she'll make a further increase in the rankings with her win over Petrova. Another win and she'll be seeded in England! Woo Hoo! Asagoe is going to have a tough road against Golovin, but if she can give Tatiana fits with her slice forehand, she could pull out a win.

Tanasuagarn has a great chance to win against Maleeva, Moragami is going to be in a tough match against Loit, and I still believe that Obata will get to the semifinals this week.

curtj ... Nice thought, but we have at least 5 years before that will happen. I'll even say this ... if we see an all Asian final at a Tier III event or higher within the next 5 years ... I will, hell ... I'll let you set the stakes big boy.

B Man ... Surely you jest about Moron's elevated ranking. There is a SLIGHT correlation, but I don't even know what to say about that other than questioning your use of hallucinogenic substances.

Nick

did somebody say "steak"?

awww... see, now you got me all excited.

Nick, I think you might be overlooking the fact that Asagoe is a defending finalist and has 125 points coming off this week (e.g. almost all that's keeping her in the Top 50). She's only made back half of that with her two wins here. Beating Golovin would be another 8 quality points plus 14 more for getting to the quarters.

Neither Kremer nor Vinci is going to give her quality points ...

So she'll have to get back to the finals just to maintain her current ranking.

Only a victory here (not going to happen) would lead to a seeding at Wimbledon - and that just barely.

I just don't think that Serena deserves to be bumped up so high as a seed- #3 or #4 is the max I would go- although she has had an injury- she has not played as often as she could and has not had the results to prove that she is worthy of the #1 seed in a Grand Slam tournament at this time. Myskina straight-setted Venus and thus trumps her being seeded ahead of herself- Myskina straight-setted Capriati easily, who defeated Serena... Myskina has earned the seeding ahead of both sisters for this upcoming tournament. Mauresmo (who has had a good clay season and played well at Wimby) is the only player left that I feel might deserve a better seeding than Myskina.

I still stick by:
1/2 Mauresmo/Myskina
3 Venus
4 Serena

I think this is how it will work. Also- Gaby mentioned that Sabatini covered the court really well- but I think Myskina moves fairly well as well and that shouldn't be an issue. I'm not sure that she can do well at this tournament- especially since I keep complimenting her. I am just stubborn and feel that she deserves the #1 seeding based on the above. I will be emailing the committee LOL

This will be my last post about the seeding debate because frankly ... we are never going to agree on this topic. Bottom line, I know that I'm right and we'll see what the seeding committee has to say. You'll need multiple e-mails to convince them of your points of view. (BTW ... this is sarcasm, not a personal attack.)

To take issue with a few of your points ...

Different surface ... I understand that recent play is important, but I don't think that Wimbledon will put much stock in how a player plays on clay when this event is on grass. I can see the committee POSSIBLY seeding Nastya ahead of Venus, but I feel that the committee won't do this to prevent the Williams sisters appearing on the same side of the draw. #1 and #2 are the only players that they can position ... every other player in the draw is up in the air. Venus should be ranked ahead of Nastya, but Serena WILL be ranked ahead of her, without question.

I'm sorry ... but this comment reminds me of the story that ESPN does during the bowl season when Troy State beat so and so, who beat so and so ... therefore, they should be seeded higher. Extremely faulty logic and I don't put any stock in that comment at all.

Gaby also mentioned that Gaby would chip and charge on the return, which played a larger role than her court coverage. Nastya doesn't have the anywhere near the volleys of Gaby. While Meanskina can cover the court well, I still contend that the returns are stronger than they were back when Gaby played therefore, a weaker serve is going to be more readily attacked.

bpj ... You're right, I thought that Nadia was worth 70 quality points, but I was looking at the bonus points that a player could receive at a Slam. If Shinobu (I love that name) can get past Golovin, she has a good shot at the event. *shrug* She ousted Sharapova last year and while Maria is much improved, I think that Shinobu can still cause her problems.

Nick

I tend to agree with Nick on Myskina's chances on grass. It might be a little easier for her to hold serve than on other surfaces (bad bounces and low bounces will partly counteract the ability to hit winners off serve), but players with bigger serves are going to benefit a whole lot more. If I had to pick a Russian to win Wimbledon, my pick would be Kuznetsova, whom I'm expecting/hoping to see unveil a lovely net game this year on the grass. Petrova is too much of a head case, Sharapova isn't ready (though I could imagine her scoring a big upset and landing in the semis). Grass-court tennis tends to favor flashy players who hit a lot of winners over steady ones (Bjorn Borg notwithstanding). The weapons aren't always power (Billie Jean King was no Big Babe). Myskina certainly does have a solid ground game for grass and good speed, but I just think there are players with bigger weapons. That's much more important on grass than clay. Personally, I'd prefer to see Wimbledon just stick with the rankings like everybody else, but they don't, and there are good arguments not to, especially this year. Anyway, if Serena got a #1 seed at the French (when there are several players who are arguably better on clay), why wouldn't she get one at Wimbledon? She hasn't been beaten on grass since 2001.

I think this is a very winnable tournament for Maria, especially with Petrova crapping out, but I think her draw is nasty. I'm pulling for Golovin over Asagoe, but I actually think the finalist from the top of the draw will come from the Maleeva/Tanasugarn match-up.

I was just thinking about why Myskina is so successful on carpet, which is the other very fast surface, yet I'm not expecting as much on grass. She's not unique in that, either. Kim Clijsters is better on carpet than grass, while the Williams Sisters and Justine Henin-Hardenne seem to show better on grass. I know Nick wrote some stuff about this a few weeks back, the gist of which was that grass was a more unpredictable surface. Maybe that favors the server a little more (the Williamses and Justine have very hard serves), and maybe leads to shorter rallies so you can get away with a few more errors.

[ June 09, 2004, 05:35 PM: Message edited by: JC ]

I would still have to give Venus the seed over Serena- Venus has made 4 straight finals, is ranked higher and has "relatively" played more consistent tennis this year.

I just think it would set a bad precedence to seed a #11 player at the #1 seed over others who have played more solidly as of recent and have had decent grass court play in the past, in particular, Mauresmo.

BTW, I would never go out of my way to email regarding seedings in a tournament. Lets just let them play and see what happens... see if special seedings are worth it if that is what is decided.

Nick- the return game in today's sport is ten times better than years past, just as the entire game is more athletic and more physical in general. When I think of Myskina playing in the tournament, she seems to play like the Japanese players, just with less angles in her game, which seems to work well on grass. I think she can get to the quarters of the tournament though. Maybe better if she can get that first strike at the ball like she did on the clay- but I think it will be much tougher than in Roland Garros.

Really interesting results out of Birmingham this a.m. Hammer and others called the Tanasugarn/Maleeva match correctly: TammyT came thru in three, 0-6, 6-4, 6-2.

I have a soft spot for Maleeva, but love Tammy Tanasugarn, too. Tanasugarn will next play Loit, a winner over Morigami.

Molik and Sharapova both won and will now play each other in the quarters.