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George Twins fan
Most experts seem to feel it's very possible that nobody will be elected by the Baseball Writers when the results are announced tomorrow. Bruce Sutter missed by 43 votes last year. Jim Rice, Goose Gossage and Andre Dawson were the only other guys last year to get over 50% of the vote and not get in. And then there is Bert Blyleven, who wrongly received well under 50% last year.

If no one is voted in, it will be the first time in 40 years according to ESPN.

[ January 09, 2006, 03:39 PM: Message edited by: KingChildress ]
Joe in Philly
I'd put Bruce Sutter in.

QUOTE
KingChildress:
And then there is Bert Blyleven, who wrongly received well under 50% last year.  
Wrongly as in "he should be in" or wrongly as in "he shouldn't get any votes"?
George Twins fan
Well assuming you are asking that question seriously. I'll answer it so.

Among pitchers of his era:
*No. 1 in complete games
*No. 2 in shutouts (one behind Nolan Ryan)
*No. 2 in innings pitched (trailing only Ryan) *No. 5 in Ks
*No. 6 in wins

Okay, only 287 wins, but he played for lousy teams. And Bill James did some research and discovered the following:

He walked through Blyleven's career, start by start, and then compared it to the careers of the best Hall of Fame candidates of that era.

He found Blyleven had the worst run support of any pitcher in the group except Don Sutton and accumulated the most "tough losses," a stat James invented personally to measure losses in which pitchers deserved better.

And then there is this from the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia CD-ROM.

QUOTE
According to that encyclopedia, Blyleven allowed 344 fewer runs in his career than the average pitcher of his day. In the live-ball era, only eight pitchers have done better in that department. And those eight comprise a group that essentially consists of the best modern pitchers who ever threw a baseball: Roger Clemens, Lefty Grove, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Tom Seaver, Carl Hubbell and Bob Gibson.

If you look more closely at that stat, you also find it wasn't just a tribute to longevity. Blyleven had six seasons in which he allowed at least 30 fewer runs than the average pitcher. That's as many seasons like that as Tom Seaver -- and more than Steve Carlton, Sandy Koufax, Juan Marichal or Jim Palmer.
The voters get so caught up with these magic numbers like 300 wins, 500 HRs, 3000 hits, etc.
WhiteSoxFan
I'd vote for Sutter, Garvey, and Alan Trammell if I was feeling generous. Sutter's numbers (saves especially) may pale by today's closers, but he was the best closer in baseball for quite a few years. I've always been a supporter of Garvey... the best player on some very good Dodgers teams of the 70s and 80s and baseball's Iron Man before Ripken. Trammell is a tougher call, and like I said, I'd only vote for him if you catch me in a generous mood. He doesn't have the numbers of Ripken, and he doesn't have the defense of Ozzie, but he's right behind both of them, and that combo should count for something.

As for Tommy John, Andre Dawson, Blyleven... it's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Very Good. Sorry, you guys miss out...

Funny thing is, 20 years ago, anyone would have thought Jim Rice and Dale Murphy (and perhaps Mattingly) would be shoo-ins. No dice...
Ms. de Blazer
I'd put in Sutter. He was the Eck of his day. He was the first to regularly throw the splitter effectively and it WAS effective. I remember him in the World Series, although I was rooting for Milwaukee. The other guys are in the Hall of Very Good.
Joe in Philly
Bruce Sutter was the only one elected. Jim Rice was 53 votes short.
Bill W
Be careful, KingChildress -- quoting Bill James will get you called names by some Flat Earth analysts here...

I thought the two strongest candidates on the BBWAA ballot were Blyleven and Gossage, but I might've voted for Sutter too.

Garvey is a hugely overrated 1B with middling power who had the range of a water buffalo at first base.
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