More and more, I'm starting to think that Serena's winning the Aussie Open this year may have actually hurt her. As many of you posted, she won that one with a lot of heart (and also a mental breakdown on Lindsay's part), but not necessarily because her game was back to its dominating form. Since then, injuries have definitely played a role in a subpar year for her.

Is it possible that winning the Aussie Open blinded Serena to what the true state of her game was? I think she felt that if she won the Aussie Open, she would be back just like that (I certainly thought so) -- in the hunt for more slams and #1. Perhaps she lost a bit of her edge and hunger, thinking it was going to be easy to dominate again. She did not train with the same zest, focus and drive she probably would have had she failed to win the Aussie Open.

Had she lost the Aussie Open, that would have been 4 consecutive slams Serena had participated in without winning. The media would have begun hounding her, speculating whether she could ever be what she once was. And all the doubting and criticisms would have fueled her to get better (as it did with Venus this past summer).

Instead, Serena won a slam, through sheer will. All was right with tennis in Serena's mind and 2004 could be dismissed as a one-off due to her coming back from injury. Serena could fool herself into believing she could rest on her laurels and pick up where she left off during the Summer of 2003.

In my mind, the Australian Open 2005 was tonly a band-aid for much more serious holes in Serena's tennis game and fitness--holes that called out for greater attention than she thought she needed to give.

I don't think it was a setback at all. If nothing else it confirmed that she could show up not being the favorite and still win a slam. I mean the Aussie Open has nothing to do with her injury problems. The high ankle sprain she suffered on clay is one that is hard to recover from. Because it was the same leg she had knee surgery on she lost a lot of strength she had built up in that knee. The added weight gain just compounded to make a bad situation worse. Thats why I'm glad she took an L for the rest of the year and hopefully will be back to defend her Australian Open in better shape and injury free. Considering how little she played and only had the Australian Open title she has little to defend. She could fall deep in the rankings though if she has an early exit at the Aussie Open. But big whoop. The rankings are more of a reflection of consistency and if Serena is healthy it won't matter if she's in the top 10 or 50.

If 2004 didn't already show it than 2005 defintely showed to her that girls aren't scared of her like they used to be. I do think she realizes now that the other girls have caught up and its no more swooping into grand slams and winning them like a couple years ago. Most of the up and comers are playing big hitting tennis. There are no more Martina Hingis' left who play extremely crafty but don't have the power to be able to keep up. Girls seem to come out with an extra fire in their eyes when facing Venus and Serena partly because of the players they have lost to in the past couple years. Before I think their opponents attitude was "ok let me go out here and give it my best and at least win a few games. Now, the girls know there is no more fear and their era of domination is over and that they can catch Venus and Serena on bad days more often. I mean Angela Haynes playing Serena like that on grass was mind boggling when Haynes still loses to players that Serena wipes the court with on a regular. Jill Craybas' claim to fame will be her Wimbledon win over an out of shape, knee suffering Serena. Of course Venus showed everyone a couple days letter just how much Serena shouldn't have even shown up at Wimbledon rather than Craybas being a great player.

Knee surgeries can be very tricky. In many instances there will continue to be lingering problems, especially if the player comes back to early, which I think Serena may have. I honestly have speculated that her knee will never be the same again. Look how its affected her serve. Pre knee surgery Serena was a beast on serve. She could always count on a good number of aces and free points and easy service holds. Since then you can see that her serve is not as dominant because of the changed motion from the knee issues. But, if she can get back in shape and get the strength back in her knee she'll be right back.

[ October 10, 2005, 01:37 PM: Message edited by: ltskinmdterp ]

I wonder though if Serena does know that she can't just walk into tournaments with little prep and expect to win? She hasn't given that indication after her early loses in the other slams. The only person she gave props to was Venus at the Open and even there she threw in that she didn't think anyone else could have beaten her. Questionable at best.

Although I think setback is too strong a word, it was a GS victory after, I wonder if it reinforced this idea that she can show up with little prep and win GS.

But then again, I lost in the first round of a 3.5 tourney this weekend, what the hell do I know.

[ October 10, 2005, 02:08 PM: Message edited by: shep71 ]

I think that Serena's situation is a combination of airrunner's and ltskinmdterp's observations.

I also think that Serena is suffering from a lack of motivation. Is there another player currently on the tour who has accomplished more than she has? I would have to say no.

Serena has won all four majors, some more than once, and she has reached the number one ranking.

It can be said that Serena is the last player to have "dominated" the WTA tour.

Currently, the field is so deep that no one has "dominated" since Serena.

Serena probably finds it difficult to find the motivation to accomplish something that she has already accomplished and something that no one has accomplished since.

Dedric

All true, I'd say. Also, don't know if either she or Venus have really talked about it, but the murder of their sister might have had more of an impact than is appreciated. Serena might not have quite the edge in part because of that terrible loss.

Also, I wonder if Serena would be reenergized if a rival emerged who could/would consistently challenge her, force her to be dedicated and pushing the limits of her talent, even beyond. Oh, that's a problem in the game today....so many players, Serena included, have had to miss so much time due to injuries, that they aren't able to truly challenge each other as much. JHH and Maria S. have both been great competitors for Serena, as was JenCap. The one person whom she played the most frequently in the major finals was Venus, and we have seen how difficult it is for them to play well against the other. Part of the reason Chris had such a long career, Martina as well, was they were reenergized by challengers (for Christ: Martina herself, Tracy Austin, Hana M., and even Steffi to an extent. For Martina: Tracy, Hana, and the big one, Steffi, as well as Monica).

Of course, if she isn't able to or doesn't recommit herself to being the best she can be, then those rivalries will remain "could have been even better." Hope she's able to. Love to watch her compete.

[ October 10, 2005, 05:42 PM: Message edited by: Good Hands ]

I'm beginning to wonder if Serena & Justine will ever be on opposite sides of a net again.

Maybe not. I think that Justine's success will be mostly limited to clay. This whole virus thing has really done her in. Clay is her best surface so if she has a great clay season then she won't get enough rest to really compete at Wimbledon, as shown this year. But Serena's ranking by the time the Australian Open comes around will be such that she could get Justine in a 3rd or 4th round so its possible depending on what the draw is.

[ October 10, 2005, 09:09 PM: Message edited by: ltskinmdterp ]

A Serena related tidbit from TV Guide online:

Serena actually wasn't too bad in her other television show appearance, surprisingly. I don't think she's gonna win an Emmy anytime soon, but she was fine. It'll be interesting to see her on ER. I don't regularly watch ER anymore, but I'll check it out to see Serena. (I'm watching it tonight because John Leguizamo is joining the cast. Love him!)

Not sure that's a good omen for Serena's career. I wonder if she's holding a tennis racket, amidst the wreckage.

I'm more curious to know if she'll be wearing $40,000 earrings.

I think Serena will be hungry this coming year. She saw Venus win a slam and really start to play well toward the end of the year. I believe that if everyone is healthy, 2006 will be a great year for the ladies. Venus, Serena, Kim, Lindsay, Mary P coming back, Jenn Capp coming back. There are about 15 ladies that can compete in the top 10, should be interesting.