Looks like the 16 are set for the championship:

1 SERENA WILLIAMS 5596.00
2 VENUS WILLIAMS 4844.00
3 JENNIFER CAPRIATI 3454.00
4 AMELIE MAURESMO 2934.00
5 MONICA SELES 2796.00
6 JUSTINE HENIN 2658.00
7 JELENA DOKIC 2453.00
8 MARTINA HINGIS 2313.00
9 DANIELA HANTUCHOVA 2295.00
10 KIM CLIJSTERS 2156.00
11 ANASTASIA MYSKINA 1917.00
12 SILVIA FARINA ELIA 1619.00
13 CHANDA RUBIN 1525.00
14 MAGDALENA MALEEVA 1414.00
15 ANNA SMASHNOVA 1357.00
16 LINDSAY DAVENPORT 1347.00
17 NATHALIE DECHY 1269.00
18 AI SUGIYAMA 1241.00
19 ELENA DEMENTIEVA 1203.00
20 PATTY SCHNYDER 1191.00


Unless another Maleeva happens next week in Zurich, these should be the 16. Does Lindsay still get the special seeding?

[ October 10, 2002: Message edited by: bostonlob ]

Kind of odd that Davenport earned enough points to finish 16th when she only played 6 tournaments all year without winning a single title. Can't imagine a male player under the same circumstances qualifying for the season ending championships. Exhibit A as to the lack of real depth on the women's tour once you get out of the top 10 or so.

The men's tour only takes the top 8, I think. If so, a different story on the woman's tour.

bostonlob, my guess would be that Lindsay would still seeded according to her injury ranking...

George, Lindsay's standing in the WTA Race, GIVEN HER RESULTS TO DATE, is NOT exhibit A in an indictment of the lack of depth in women's tennis. It's just how the system works. She's reached a Grand Slam semifinal, a Tier I final, two Tier II finals, and two Tier II semis. That's a decent year by any calculation.

In fact, if she had the same results on the ATP this year, she would have 274 Race Points. That would put her in 21st place in the Race to the ATP Championships - perhaps not as high as she is now, but nothing to sneeze at.

It's a difficult thing to balance depth with strength at the top. Ask fans of any sport. I think the WTA has done a pretty good job of it, considering how dominant a few certain players have been over the years. No, not a lot of different women are challenging for slams these days (no Thomas Johanssons or Albert Costas, I'm afraid), but seven women have won the eight Tier Ones this year; six men have won the seven Masters Series events this year. And of the women who have won the Tier Ones, two aren't even in the Top 10 in the WTA Race (Majoli and Maleeva). Only one of the Masters Series winners is out of the Top 10 in that race.

Maybe what you meant to say was that Davenport's success in her six (now seven) tournaments back shows that she's playing against a bunch of chumps? That, at least, is a more coherent argument.

My guess is that it is alot less likely that a male player could have that kind of success coming back from an injury and only playing six events. So the fact that Lindsay would rank 21st on the men's tour with the same results doesn't really wash.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not begruding Lindsay. She's a credit to the game and has really done wonders with her conditioning to better prepare for the rigors of the tour. And your point about her playing a bunch of chumps is a valid one; in fact I think we are making very similar points but saying them in different ways.

Possibly it would be tougher for a man coming back from an injury (though it sure hasn't been easy for Hingis or Mary Pierce). But here's some food for thought: if you take Lleyton Hewitt's last six tournaments from the leaderboard, he has enough points to be ranked #6 in the race. Even if you give him just 1/3 of his points on the Entry Ranking (about the equivalent of 6 tournaments), he still makes #21 in the Entry Ranking.

LD's made a bunch of finals and semis in her six tournaments; that's the whole ballgame right there...You're not going to find anyone ranked in the 20's and 30's men or women who make three or four finals and two semi's out of six tournaments in a row...

But I'll sure bet that top eight would rather not see LD as their first match of the season ending championships! Ouch!

I updated the list to include the next four players.

With Dementieva's win over Hingis today and Lindsay still in the tournament, Smashnova could find herself not in LA, and in the #17 position. What a downer, Smashnova has won four tournaments and might not make it.

The other wild card is Monica, will she be healthy for the tournament, or did she just not want to travel to Europe for one week?

That's a good question. Monica's foot seemed to be injured again and she took off those west coast hard court tournaments. She got to the quarters of the US Open and then lost to Danilidou...Was she just biding her time to see how the foot felt? Does she just want to heal and rehab and come back in Australia? She's lost quite a few points these past two or three months...

I wonder about Venus, too...her sister is so dominant - how does this effect Venus's attitude as time goes by? She's in danger of being sealed in as the #2 sister...after all those years of training and playing and looking forward to being the best in the world, can she accept that? Or does it make her more determined?

I wonder if Venus even cares right now. She wasn't exactly shattered by that loss to Maggie. And she sounded just as content going home than advancing to the next round.

The sisters have undergone a total role-reversal since 2000. Remember when we were all wondering if Serena had the goods to beat, let alone DOMINATE, Venus at the Slams? Well, now that Serena's answered with an emphatic yes, the ball's back in Venus' court.

But Venus seems to play best when faced with a challenge, a sense of urgency. Serena is that challenge from the WTA Champs. and beyond to 2003. IMO, that one is THE most intriguing plot development in the near future of women's tennis.

Monica is a question, but we should know more next week. She is scheduled to play in Zurich. Since she refuses to play any events in Germany (thanks to the injustice of the criminal justice system), she has been sidelined while the tour winds through Leipzig, Filderstadt and the like. I think she will play next week and in the year-end championships.

Sisters Williams are not big end of year fans. Venus has played in the season-ending tournament exactly one-time. A semifinal loss to the Swiss Miss. Serena played for the first time last year and made it to the finals where Lindsay had to default due to the knee. I am not sure either one is a guarantee in LA. Although, for the right appearance fee, papa will probably let at least one of them play.

Lindsay will be playing at least eight events before the season-ender. Normally that would not be enough to get in. However, she has finished in the semis or finals of every event to date. There are not many professional tennis players (relative to the number on tour) throughout history that make it to the finals of multiple events in an entire year. While her qualifying seems odd, it really is just the way the numbers work out. And she is not qualifying at the top of the list. She is just getting in somewhere lower in the list.

Oh, I forgot to say that I think moving this event to LA is one of smartest moves by the WTA in recent memory. Had it stayed in Munich, we know Monica wouldn't have played. And I doubt if either Williams would, either. But everyone who's healthy will probably play in LA. It should be a great atmosphere. I can totally see a raucous Staples Center crowd getting behind an underdog should, say, a Williams sister be tested. It's the kinda of crowd that should help Monica immensely.

[ October 10, 2002: Message edited by: jordan ]

I think the stupidest thing the WTA ever did was move the Championships out of Madison Square Garden. Los Angeles is an improvement over Munich, certainly, but I don't know why they didn't come straight back to NYC. It may have been an ego thing or it may have been contractual, who knows? But the Staple Center doesn't hold the same prestige that the Garden gave the year-end tourney. The Garden is "the world's most famous arena," after all!

Second stupidest thing was reducing the final from best-of-five to best-of-three without any kind of advance notice. One year it was just three sets again. There was something so special about the last match of the year, between the last two women standing, going five sets in Madison Square Garden. It was great.

btw - Monica's already pulled out of Zurich due to injury...

I fully agree that Madison Square Garden was and is still the best place for the season ending championships. And the five set thing was fascinating and incredibly competitive....

I'd like to see them move it around, personally. And perhaps play it on different surfaces from year to year, too.

Dementieva makes it to the semi's in the Porsche, looks like she will take over the last spot.

Keep in mind that at least one woman probably won't play the Championships, so we should be looking at the #17-20 spots instead of #16.

On another matter, she won't make the tourney, but it wasn't worth opening a new topic. Here's a nice(!) article on Anna K.: don't blame anna

ESPN is reporting that Martina Hingis will miss the rest of the season with an ankle injury. I assume this includes the WtA Championships.

Uh Oh. Sounds like the surgery was unsuccessful. Is poor Hingis destined to be the new Tracy Austin?

With Hingis out, the door opens for Smashnova.

Seles says she is playing and not retiring; but the big news: Mike Sell and Monica will split after the WTA Championship in LA.

OK guy's, we have someone looking for a coaching job..... Where do we call???

oh, god, where did you read that? I thought Sell was fantastic? Oh, Monica...She needs a fitness coach to motivate her to a new level...Well, Mike Sell can coach me any time...and I'll regrip his racket any time...

With Schnyder in the finals of the Swisscom, this makes the final spots for the Championship real close.

These girls are so close, but not all will make it: Smashnova, Schnyder, Dementieva, and Maleeva.

Schnyder wins Zurich and should now be on her way to LA, along with Davenport. Wow, what an amazing end to the year, Maleeva in Moscow and Schnyder in Zurich, both Tier I events.

The final spots are up for grabs between Smashnova, Maleeva, Rubin, and Dementieva. This is real close, next weeks matches are important.

Smash just beat Dementieva in three sets in Linz, meaning she's looking very solid for LA. If Dementieva can beat Sugiyama, then she'd face Smash in the second round - the winner of that would basically have a ticket to the Porsche tourney. ON THE OTHER HAND, if somehow Ai can beat both players, then suddenly we could be talking about her in the tourney. Which would be nice, because I would like to see an Asian player in the event (not counting Smashnova - although Israel is technically part of Asia).

Congrats to Smash on a great season.

Semi-bad news for us Amelie fans: According to the personal diary on her website, the doctors who examined her after she pulled out of Zurich found a cyst behind her knee. More tests are needed to discern how large it is, but her status for Los Angeles is shaky. She's still hoping to play, because she's had such a great season and has been producing some quality tennis, but it doesn't sound too promising at this point.

Amelie's Official Website

It's official. Amelie's year is over. She has to take a month off because of the knee injury and has withdrawn from the year-end championships. Damn.

Oh, well, c'est la vie! She'll be good and rested for a run at her first Slam in Oz

So I guess that means that one MORE player will qualify for the year-end event... Yay Chanda! Three spots are left, and here's how it stands as of 11:45 this morning (players in bold are still alive in their tournaments).

16 Anna Smashnova 1522
17 Elena Dementieva 1470
18 Magdalena Maleeva 1417
-------------------------------------------
19 Nathalie Dechy 1326
20 Ai Sugiyama 1243
21 Amanda Coetzer 1205
22 Eleni Daniilidou 1204
23 Anne Kremer 1168
24 Alexandra Stevenson 1159
25 Tatiana Panova 1148

Poor Dechy retired in her match against Srebotnik, meaning she'll only get in if there's one more withdrawl (and of course, if she's injured, that may not matter).

Bovina can only make it by winning Luxembourg, defeating Clijsters in the process, and having one more player (likely a Williams?) pull out of LA. Coetzer, Kremer, and Stevenson just have to keep winning and hope Maleeva loses soon and/or another player pulls out.

[ October 23, 2002: Message edited by: bridgeportjake ]

Smash just beat Dementieva, so it looks like her spot in the championships is pretty much secure. Great job, Anna! I don't know how you'll be in January when you have two tournament victories to defend, but for now we can say that your 2002 was an unqualified success!

As for Dementieva, she'll probably make it too, but only by the skin of her teeth. Definitely a disappointing year for ED.

Does anyone know if/where the draw has been posted for the Championships?

Thanks,
Nick

It's here!

http://www.sanexwta.com/assets/story_pdf/C..._Singles_02.pdf

Serena looks to have a very easy road to the finals. Smashnova should be no problem in round 1, and I don't think Dokic or Myskina (I expect Myskina to win, but who knows?) will threaten her.
Capriati's playing so poorly that I doubt she'll get past Hantuchova in the QFs.

The five biggest threats to Serena, in my opinion, (Clijsters, Henin, Rubin, Davenport & Venus), all lie in the bottom half of the draw, which should produce some very lively match-ups. Clijsters/Rubin is probably the best first round matchup.

Monica plays Lindsay in Round ONE???

It looks as though Davenport doesn't get her protected ranking for the Porsche, so she's only a #9 seed. Brutal draw for Monica.

Yeah, Monica drew the short end of the stick. I knew she would draw Lindsay. I just had a horrible feeling. But then to get Venus if she can get through Lindsay?! Not good! Too bad she was injured these past few months....she could have kept her ranking up higher.

Oy. Monica verses Lindsy in the first round?? Plus Monica hasn't played at all this fall. Doesn't look good for her. On a good day, she is entirely capable of beating Davenport, but who knows what sort of game she's going to bring?

I agree, the Clijsters/Rubin match is going to be an amazing first round match. Both players want to have an impact here and both are capable of it.

I still can't believe both Venus and Serena are playing this tourney. I'm glad they are, but I'm shocked. Of course, play is still two days away...

While LD's had an excellent comeback, her inability to win any of the finals she's played in does say that she's vulnerable. She also seemed to injure herself slightly in her last tournament. If Monica comes back from her break on fire, as she often does, this could be a terrific battle. Of course, one of them will face Venus in the next round which is no piece of cake unless Venus is feeling tired and unmotivated. Serena has the best draw of anyone as if she needs any more advantages beyond her brilliant play as of late. I wonder how the indoor carpet will effect some of these top players...Maleeva likes it but I don't think either Williams sister or LD especially love it, i'm not sure...

Monica has a horrible draw, first Lindsay, and if she gets past that match, a likely matchup against Venus looms. I'm a huge Seles fan, but I'd be amazed if she takes out Lindsay on carpet. Lindsay may be somewhat injured, but unless Monica has been working on her first serve or hitting the stairmaster with a vengence, she doesn't have the game to handle Lindsay. I'd love for her to prove me wrong, but it's hard to be a fan of Monica when she doesn't put as much work in the gym as the other Top 10 players.

I don't think Rubin-Clijsters is going to be as close of a match as some may think. I'm a huge Chanda fan, and while she's had a solid year, the cynic in me thinks that Clijsters will feast on Chanda's serve. Unless Chanda shows the game that took Venus to 3 sets at the Open, it'll be Clijsters in straight sets.

As for the tournament, I think that Serena will dominate the top half of the draw (Hantuchova could do some damage, but she's never given Serena a tough match), and I have a feeling that Clijsters will emerge from the bottom half. Clijsters has been on a roll after going back to her junior level coach. The bottom quarter players (Seles, Venus, Davenport) will run themselves ragged, and I don't think that Henin has the game to hurt Clijsters on the carpet.

Nick

I think Davenport usually plays pretty well on carpet. Venus, however, seems not to like playing indoors much, not so sure about Serena who rarely plays on the surface--she's 7-0 on carpet over the past five years. I will be shocked if Serena doesn't make the final.

Realistically, I can't expect much of Monica when she hasn't played in almost two months. Lindsay may not be quite what she was in 1998, but Monica's lost her last nine matches against her. I do think Davenport might have a chance at Venus, who has only played one match since the U.S. open. The Belgians seem to have found their carpet feet and will also be a threat, but I'm not discounting Chanda.

I'm inclined to agree with Nick. If I had to pick one player to emerge from the bottom half it would be Kim. But it won't be easy.

[ November 04, 2002: Message edited by: JC ]

Unlike the other girls in the top ten, Monica's qualified twelve times for the season ending tournament and won it three times. She's more than earned her fans' support over the years regardless of how often she hits the gym.

She's also had some serious foot trouble again this year since well before the US Open.

Monica comes back from time off very well and the fact that she's been doing tons of promo for these championships and that this is most likely one of her last appearances will motivate her tremendously. She's well-rested and hopefully has gotten some solid training in...

I agree that Cljisters is the one to watch though in that bottom half...she's stepping it up.

OK, things may have come out differently than I intended them to. I wasn't trying to say that one shouldn't be a fan of Monica's because she's not the most fit player on tour. Her comeback to the upper echelon of the game is one of the best stories in the history of sport, period. I'm a fan of her personality and for all that she's given to the sport.

I was trying to say that her conditioning habits are poor compared to the other players in the Top 10. Point being, it'll be hard for her to be competitive with the top players on tour when she's at a bit of a disadvantage with that respect. Couple that with a lefty serve that rarely hits 100 mph and decreased mobility due to the stress fracture in her foot, and she's at even more of a disadvantage heading into the tournament. Venus, Mauresmo, and Dokic have feasted on her serve this season and it's hard for me to believe that she'll do much in the tournament, no matter how much motivation or time off she's had since the Open. While I hope that she wins the tournament and proves me wrong (showing improvement to her fitness and service game), I must also be realistic about her chances. Lindsay has had Monica's number in the recent past and Lindsay should win the match if she's healthy.

Nick

I think Monica's two hands on both sides are the liability these days. The top ten is full of power hitters who run down a ton of balls. Monica can compete with everyone in the top ten but it's only partially that she's getting to balls a step late, it's that once she gets there, she has to be set up to hit...I think that she's shown this year that she's capable of hanging with everyone in the top ten, but will need to get in sublime shape to be able to win against the very best. She's got the shots. I agree, Nick, that her serve has been so much more vulnerable even while being that much better at times. Her nerves show up on her service games which causes all kinds of trouble. None of this is atypical for a veteran who's been on the tour as long as she has...she's just become more vulnerable and the tide has shifted. I think she's already considered a spoiler...no one wants to face her even if they have a winning record against her like LD and Venus does. They know that if she's on they're going to have to work hard to get past her. At both the French and the US Open, you could see the relief on Venus's face when she realized that Monica wasn't as sharp as she'd been at the Aussie Open. Of course, I'm just hoping for the best possible results for Monica - she's simply one of the best ever.

[ November 06, 2002: Message edited by: bryan d. ]

I'm pulling for Venus this tourney. I still believe she's the best player on the tour - and when her serve is on - she's unstoppable.
Venus had great year, but Sis had a better year!

The Belgium girls are through easily....

Everyone's picking LD over Seles but...MJ says that Seles came to LA a month ago to train with Mike Sell for this tournament, completely altering her normal training routine in Florida. Now, Monica has a track record of playing great after absences, and LD's apparently still having some injury trouble...so, this could be quite a match. Monica's also gone overboard to promote this tournament meaning she must be feeling pretty positive....Go Monica!!!!!!!!!!!

Clijsters is looking very, very good.

Grrr ... Has anyone else been having problems posting on the board? Sometimes, when I post a message, I get a "the page you have attempted to access is unavailable" screen. When I hit the refresh button or backspace, I'm able to get back to this screen but my message is gone.

Anyways, I'm glad that the Belgians won their first two matches, although neither player played an impressive match. I'm most worried about Justine and her 34% first serve percentage. There's NO way she'll win against Kim if she doesn't serve better than that. Even worse for Justine is that although Kim's play was streaky against Chanda, she moving incredibly well. All of this spells out a straight sets win for Kim in the next round.

Is Monica back with Mike Sell on a permenant basis or for this tournament only? I want to believe you bryan d., but unless Lindsay's injury is worse than she's been letting on, I can't see Monica dictating play against Lindsay. When Monica has time to set up for her shots, she can hit the cover off the ball, however, Lindsay will hit the ball deep and limit Monica's chances to set up for her shots. She'll be on the defensive with her service game and her lack of mobility is going to ruin her. I'd love for her to prove me wrong, but I don't see it happening this year.

Nick

Should have had some faith, Nick...Monica took out a perfectly fit, healthy Lindsey in three tough sets: 3-6, 7-6 (6), 6-3...

A brilliant match from Monica Seles. She was down 3-6, 0-3 and not serving well when she broke LD and then evened things at 3-3...Monica saved an incredible 7 match points in the second set, including 4 in a row in the tiebreaker when LD led 6-2 but Monica came back to win 8-6...

In the third set, it was tight until three all, but apparent that Seles was serving much better, racking up a bunch of aces and hitting the down the middle serve on the ad side brilliantly...Seles took off from there winning the final three games confidently over a dejected and worn out LD.

Yes, to all doubters, Seles pulled out a very long, very tough three set match. Her 2002 three-set record is now 14-4. She's into the quarters of the Season ending championship... She broke LD's 9 match winning streak against her. She hit over 40 winners (as did LD). She ran down balls over and over again. She hit harder and more accurately when she was down. She saved SEVEN match points against Lindsey Davenport.

Have faith, Monica fans. Unfortunately, this is her last tournament with Mike Sell.

I have such a hard time saying this, , but I was wrong. Prior to the match, I was going to say that I'd put some of nekkid pics on the web if Monica managed to win the match, so Thank God I didn't type that. Monica surprised the hell out of me tonight, especially after being down match points in the second set. In the middle of the match, I thought if Monica got down a break in the second, the match would be over. She proves me wrong by breaking right back, although her service games were not for the faint of heart. During the second set tiebreak, I thought if Monica gets behind on her serve, the match would be over. Then, Monica clawed her way back into the tiebreak, and once she won the second set, I had a feeling the match would be hers. Major props to Monica winning the match, and bryan d., I take my crow with ketchup and light salt.

Having heaped all the praise upon Monica, I was surprised by how tight Lindsay got in the second set. She was cruising along until Monica broke serve and after that point, her body language completely changed. She got tenative in the tiebreak and while her backhand was still solid her forehand was very shaky. In the final set, Monica started aiming for the lines and Lindsay looked shell shocked from losing the second.

Nick

BTW, did anyone else notice the cutie in the front row with the blond highlights? WOOF!

Monica Wins! I'm completely giddy. It was not easy to root against Lindsey as I'm generally pulling for her, but I just wanted Seles to make a good showing. Wow. She pulled off a total stunt. Nerves of steal. Well, when she wasn't catching her tosses. Like Nick said, "her service games were not for the faint of heart." It seemed like Monica was only going to play points well after she was down 30-Love.

Poor Lindsey is looking mentally cracked right now. She was definitely thinking about the matches she didn't close out earlier this year. She was up 3-0 and a set when she starting getting pouty and negative. It was like she was mad because she wasn't winning by a larger margin. Seven match points across two games and a tie breaker. Gadzooks. Was it Pam or Mary that said it took them 15 years to recover from losing a match after having 7 match points?? I hope Davenport bounces back much, much faster.

So, Nick, let's see those naked pics of you?

Yes, Monica played so much tougher when she down. Her service games had me biting my nails and pacing the living room. And all props to LD - she played very well, but Seles just wouldn't give in, which is what led to LD's frustration. Monica's been catching her toss for a long time now; I think that started when she changed her serve a couple of years ago. She really hit that down the middle ad side serve beautifully in the third set and I think we'll see alot more of that in her quarterfinal.

I'm now very curious to see if Patty S. can give Venus a run for her money. Venus will be rusty but she's in her home town and she desperately needs a final appearance to end the year after losing to her sis three very big times in a row. Meanwhile, Patty's playing very confidently and the indoor surface is good for her. I think the surface is playing medium fast which helps Patty as well. Of course, at any time Venus can come out and blow virtually anyone off the court...wish it was on TV..

Bryan,

I too was pacing the living room and moving toward the screen everytime she got a short ball. LOL. Hope she gives Venus a match.

Woo Hoo! The way Monica didn't hold anything back when she was down on each of those match points was absolute vintage Seles. It was so nice to see again! Which is ironic, considering I hated to see it during all those matches against Gabriela. I still have nightmares about the '92 French Open semi's!

Congratulations to Monica. She showed a lot of heart and the win was worth staying up well past midnight for!

GO MONICA!!!

I am so happy!