With 7 weeks (and 11 tournaments) to go before the year-end event, there are some great rankings races gearing up:

CLIJSTERS V. HENIN-HARDENNE

Certainly Justine wants (and "deserves" this ranking) but there's no doubt that Kim will give it her all to defend her spot. JHH has 5609 points this year (in 14 tournaments) to Clijsters' 5478 (in 16). KC has to basically dominate indoors this fall - as we know she's capable of doing - and hope Justine cools off. Regardless, if they're within a couple hundred points at the end and Kim can win the LA Championships, it will be just like Lindsay in '01, and Kim will retain her ranking. Amazingly.

RUBIN V. DEMENTIEVA
The most intriguing battle is for the #8 ranking. It's somewhat unlikely, especially given the Williams sisters situation, that all of the Top 8 will show up for the Championships, so this might not be such an important race (plus I'm sensing that Elena may continue her great run into the fall and leave Chanda in the dust).

Rubin, with 15 tournaments, has 1769 points. Dementieva, with 22 tourneys, has 1768. Top-seeded Rubin just got TROUNCED by second-seeded Elena in Indonesia. Now Top-seeded Dementieva has a chance to double her pleasure in China, where Chanda is the #2 seed. Hopefully the situation will be reversed and Chanda can emerge victorious. But I'm not really holding my breath too much.

The winner this week will reign as #8 in both the rankings and the Race. It's actually impressively intense.

MYSKINA V. SUGIYAMA V. ZVONAREVA V. PETROVA V. SUAREZ V. SHAUGHNESSY
None of these players has ever finished the year in the Top 10 (and only 1 has ever REACHED the Top 10) and each is in a position to do so this year (as do several other players). Really it looks like it's between Ai and Vera, but here's the Race situation:

10 AI SUGIYAMA 1554 - 19 tournaments
11 VERA ZVONAREVA 1505 - 18
12 NADIA PETROVA 1405 - 17
13 PAOLA SUAREZ 1379 - 21
14 ANASTASIA MYSKINA 1329 - 18
15 MEGHANN SHAUGHNESSY 1292 - 19

And here's their highest year-end ranking vs. their highest ever ranking:

Sugiyama 18/11
Zvonareva 45/16 (current)
Petrova 39/15 (current)
Suarez 27/17
Myskina 11/8
Shaughnessy 12/11

FINALLY, something fun to note: there are currently 9 Americans and 9 Russians in the Top 50. Starting at #51 you have Harkleroad, Sharapova, Panova and Frazier, right in a row. There are also 10 Americans and 8 Russians in the Top 50 in the Race. Monica will soon drop out of the Top 50 in the Race, and Granville is at 50. Meanwhile, Sharapova is at #52 and Safina is at #62. Frazier is at #69 with one more tournament in Japan (at which she will inevitably do well) still to go. Which country will have more Top 50 players - or Top 100 for that matter - when all is said and done?

bpj, you're right ... lots of great races going on right now ... #1 vs #2, the battle for the final spot in LA (given Henin's recent injury, the Williams family tragedy, Davenport's injury, etc. ... a player as low as #12 could qualify for the event), and the battle for the Top 10.

My favorite question is whether or not Steve-O will be in the Top 100 after the Indoor season. I've said the entire year that she has TONS to defend, 680 points of her current total of 981, and very little time to do so.

The battle for #1 is Clijsters' to lose. Compared to Henin, she's the far surperior player indoors, especially on carpet. However, she has 1739 points to defend. Justine has only 751 points to defend. One thing in Kim's favor is that she has a TON of points for her 17th tournament, so she can afford to slip up at an event and still retain the #1 ranking.

IMO, what's especially sad is that, given the rash of the injuries, it'll be tough to find someone who can threaten Kim on the surface. Maleeva usually plays well indoors, as does Dementieva, while the top ranked non-injured players, Capriati and Mauresmo, don't have the greatest of track-records indoors.

Rubin-Dementieva is turning into an interesting battle because if Clijsters, Capriati and Mauresmo (the only relatively injury free players ranked above Chanda & Elena) all play at an event, the higher ranked player of Rubin-Dementieva will earn the all important #4 seed. I love Chanda, but as the #5 seed, if she draws Kim in the quarters of an event, Chanda will be in for a tough match. I think that Elena is the superior player indoors, so she has the advantage in this battle.

As for the battle to finish the year in the Top 10 ... it's a tough call because only Petrova has posted great results indoors. However, she's very streaky. I think that if Ai ever wants to get into the Top 10, her PB is #11, now is her best chance because she has less than 70 points to defend till the WTA Championships.

Nick

[ September 16, 2003, 07:55 PM: Message edited by: The_Hammerman ]

I have a hard time getting too excited about the race for the top 10 because it seems no one wants it. The complaints about lack of depth in women's tennis seem more justified now than in a long time. The Belgians and (if healthy) Williamses are essentially untouchable. Only a streaky Capriati has any chance against them, and she simply hasn't capitalized. As much as I like Lindsay, even with a sound foot I don't think she can beat any of those four. After them, things really plummet. Mauresmo (if she could improve her serve) should be right up there, but she needs a huge infusion of mental toughness that isn't coming any time soon. Then there are the complete disasters of Dokic and Hantuchova. Rubin has been having dismal results. Seles is hopelessly injured and Martinez is old (see her two set dismissal in the second round of Shanghai to Akiko Nobody). Up and coming Daniilidou flamed out completely. Until the new crop of Russians matures, I don't see much out there.

You're right about the strange vacuum that's opened up below about #7. A year ago, it looked like the top 10 was getting awfully crowded, with Dokic, Hantuchova, Seles, and Hingis all credible threats, and players like Daniilidou and Bovina seemingly on the brink of a breakthrough. It's nice to see that Dementieva and Petrova have pulled themselves together this year, though.

Justine Henin-Hardenne definitely has the desire to be #1. She said that was her objective when she won the French, and with Serena out (and under the circumstances unlikely to return this year), she has a great shot. She hasn't been great on carpet in the past, but she was lousy on hard courts until this year too, and she doesn't have a lot of points to defend. Kim had a huge fall last year, and I'm guessing she can only stay ahead by beating Justine, which she has not been able to do lately.

The biggest reason that I don't think that Justine will take over the #1 ranking is because I think I read somewhere that she has something wrong with her back. Apparently, she's withdrawn from at least 1 indoor event after the Open ... I think it was one of the German indoor tournaments, so she'll have fewer chances to earn points than Kim. (Add to that the fact that Kim has so many points in her 18th tournament, so she can afford a slip-up or two at an event.)

I agree JC that given how Justine has imporved her hardcourt play, she's probably improved her play on carpet ... and with Lindsay and the Williams clan not playing right now, she has fewer stumbling blocks. The only thing holding her back is her health status, which is up in the air right now. IMO, if he can win the EOY Championships in LA, she will finish the year at #1.

Nick

[ September 18, 2003, 11:53 AM: Message edited by: The_Hammerman ]

Oh, I'd forgotten about the injury...that could play a part. Clijsters has pulled out of Fed Cup, too, though.

Well, Nick, Justine hasn't withdrawn from Leipzig. So this becomes a big tournament in the Race to the Championships - if Clijsters can beat Justine in the finals here, she'd almost certainly surge into first place in that race. An exciting tourney to watch from that perspective!

Dementieva is now not only comfortably ahead of Rubin in the Race, she's 7 points ahead of Mauresmo! Actually Chanda should now focus on doing better than Amelie during the indoor season. Elena has a shot of surpassing Venus in the rankings by the end of the year, depending on whether and how much V-Dub plays.

Myskina looks like she'll finally drop out of the Top 10 unless she pulls off a miracle in Germany (she has finalists points to defend). That means Maleeva is in the best position to FINALLY reclaim a Top 10 ranking (until next week, that is, when her Moscow points come off). Good luck, Maggie! You deserve it. However, Maggie has to face Schiavone in the second round. OUCH!

Petrova actually has an outside shot at overcoming Maggie - a semifinal here combined with an early loss by Maggie MIGHT do it. I think.

Right now there are four Russians (Dementieva, Zvonareva, Petrova, Myskina) in the Top 15. I can't imagine we're too far off from seeing three or four in the Top 10. They're coming. They're very. Slowly. Coming.

A week ago, Yahoo posted that she might withdraw from Leipzig because of her back injury. Apparently, things aren't as bad as originally feared.

Nick

Edited to add the articles.

http://sports.yahoo.com/ten/news?slug=belg...ov=st&type=lgns

http://sports.yahoo.com/ten/news?slug=ap-h...ov=ap&type=lgns

[ September 22, 2003, 08:07 AM: Message edited by: The_Hammerman ]

Quick update: Myskina has scratched & clawed her way to the semis, and is a win away from maintaining her spot in the Top 10. Unfortunately for her, she faces Clijsters. Still, two encouraging wins over compatriots for Anastasia.

Vento-Kabchi, all of a sudden the most feared lower-ranked player in the world, is about to enter the Top 50 after reaching her second straight semi. This from a woman who was #132 only TWO MONTHS AGO. She gets a Belgian in the next round (Callens or Justine). She's full of confidence right now and it's not ridiculous to start thinking of her as a seeded player come the Australian. Amazing work, Maria.

Kim has a foot injury. D'oh!
She retired from her semifinal match with Myskina. This could make the race for #1 very, very close, yes?!?

http://sports.yahoo.com/ten/news?slug=ap-l...ov=ap&type=lgns

If Venus and Serena take the rest of the year off (understandably considering what has happened to their family as well as their injuries), what could potetially happen tho their rankings. Could they drop very far? Could the WTA conceivably offer them a protected ranking under these unique circumstances?

Also what are your thoughts on their futures? Do you think they'll come back hungry and fired up or unfocused and unmotivated? Or will one or both possibly not come back at all?

Since they didn't play very much last fall, it's not going to impact their rankings all that much (assuming they come back in January). Serena could slip to #4 if Davenport has a big fall. I guess Venus could fall to about #10.
I don't think a protected ranking is likely, because they'll only have missed about 4 1/2 months (July-mid-November), and you have to miss six to qualify, I think.

I suspect Serena will come back hungry to reclaim #1, especially if Justine Henin-Hardenne finishes the year there. I have no idea what to expect of Venus. Maybe the time off will bring her back invigorated and ready to compete with little 'sis...or maybe not.

Kudos to Myskina!
She's defeated Justine H.H. for the Sparkassen Cup title, 3-6, 6-3, 6-3. Wow...

http://sports.yahoo.com/ten/news?slug=leip...ov=st&type=lgns

http://sports.yahoo.com/ten/news?slug=ap-l...ov=ap&type=lgns

Lindsay won't have a "great" Fall because she is taking the time to have her toe operated on, so that means that Jen could pass her with some solid results in Moscow, which she just added, Filderstadt, Philly(probably) and the Championships. Lindsay will lose over 650 points, putting her close to Jen without Jen having played those tournaments and Jen had a horrendous indoor season last year before the Championships and that great match against Serena!

I'll be fascinated to see how Jen does this fall. She's my pick to win a pretty stacked Moscow draw - stacked with Russians, that is.

Poor Maleeva! A freak injury to Clijsters keeps her from re-entering the Top 10 - probably the last chance in her career to do so. Oh well, it's really not that important. Stil...it would have been nice.

Rankings-wise, the interesting questions here are:

>> Whether Dementieva or Mauresmo will end up at #7 (or, with a win, ahead of Venus at #6) - that could be a blockbuster semi. Standing in the way of that is Maleeva, who really needs to compete well here to avoid a precipitous drop in the rankings. I think she MIGHT beat Dementieva, and COULD beat Mauresmo, but I don't see her pulling off three upsets in a row to win this thing.

>> How much closer Jen can get to Lindsay in both the Race and the Rankings. A win here puts her in striking distance of LD in both categories.

[ September 29, 2003, 08:08 AM: Message edited by: bridgeportjake ]

Interesting, b-portjake that you'd question Maleeva's ability to pull off three upsets in Moscow given that's exactly what she did last year to win the title:
Maleeva d. V. Williams, 2-6, 6-1, 7-6(3) in Rd. 16
Maleeva d. Mauresmo, 7-5, 6-4 in the semi's
Maleeva d. Davenport, 5-7, 6-3, 7-6(4) in the final

I do happen to agree with you, actually, but don't think we should overlook how tremendously Maleeva competed last year (or the fact that Maggie won the Moscow title in 94 and 05, too!).

This week's tournament is such a tough draw to pick since the indoor season is so short and it's tough to figure out how a player will perform when we have limited results from which to base our picks.

I'm also interested in seeing how well JenCap does this fall. She had a horrible indoor season last year until the EOY Championships, but if she can put things together this year, she could catch Lindsay for the #4 seed.
As for her draw, I'm not quite as confident as bpj because Petrova is looming as a potential quarterfinal opponent.

I really like Myskina's draw this week because none of the players in her quarter should threaten her on this surface. I wouldn't be surprised if she faced a qualifier in the quarters because of the weak players in that quarter.

It's time for Maleeva to pay the piper this week and I don't think that she has the goods to win the event this year. Dementieva has been on fire as of late and she's my favorite to win the event.

The bottom quarter is really tough to pick. Steve-O didn't get any favors with the draw this week ... Dokic should pummel her in straight sets. I think that Mauresmo should get through easily.

I would LOVE to see two Russians battle for the title this week and with the draw, it just might happen.

Nick

Hammerman (and everyone else!) - were you as shocked as I was to see the result of the Steve-O/Dokic match?!?

Alexandra Stevenson beat Jelena Dokic rather easily, it seems, 6-3, 6-1

Uh...Jelena?

WTF?!?!?! I am completely surprised that Steve-O took out Dokic so easily. I don't know whether this win says that Alex is back or if it shows that Dokic is REALLY struggling right now. For Alex, after going over 7 months without a win over a Top 100 player, she has finally beaten a Top 30 player in straight sets. (I don't con't the win over Mikaelian last week because M-G had to retire from that match.) Steve-O has a very tough opponent waiting in the next round, Mauresmo, so the party may be short lived.

Another huge surprise is that Danillidou ousted Shaughnessy in straight sets. Eleni is something like 2-10 indoors (including challengers), so it's another match where you have to wonder whether Eleni is back or did Meghann play really bad. I suspect that it's a combination of both because Eleni won over 80% of her first serve points (and with her bloody awful serve, that says something) while Meghann hit 33 unforced errors.

Maleeva is also out, 7-5 in the 3rd, so her ranking is going to take a nosedive once the points come off. She may fall out of the Top 20 after this week.

Nick

The auditorium must've been rocking today. For "local girl" Dinara Safina to defeat Maleeva, the defending champion (and three time winner, overall), in three, rather close sets...wow, that must've been something.

I think A. Stevenson's win over Jelena speaks much more to Dokic's disintegrating game than Steve-O's current form.

After checking out the stats for the Dokic-Stevenson match, I'm surprised that Alex hit 11 aces against Jelena as well as winning 50% of her 2nd serve points. Dokic has always had great court coverage, so I'm holding out hope that Jelena's poor play is due to some sort of injury.

IMO, tomorrow's best match should be Capriati-Bovina. They had a very tight match in New Haven before the Open, so there is a chance for a possible upset ... in the very least, a tight match.

The other interesting match should be Petrova-Pistolesi. If Petrova is on fire, she should win easily, but Anna can frustrate the best of them. I think that Nadia will win the match, but it should go three sets.

Nick

Good call on those upsets Nick. JCap has got to be the most frustrating player on the tour to be a fan of. She's the one woman who can either lose to virtually anyone or come within a few points of beating anyone. If she were 10 pounds lighter, she'd have beaten JHH at the U.S. Open, but I think she needs to lose some mental baggage as well.

Speaking of mental baggage, that's Dokic's injury for sure. Although Stevenson has already taken a set from Mauresmo, somehow.

Steve-O plays well during the indoor season every year. And Amelie's a very slow starter. But Mauresmo pulled through that match, 6-3 in the third.

Woo Hoo, I finally pick an upset. Given the draw, JenCap had a great chance to close the gap between Lindsay and herself, but Bovina put a stop to that. I'm a huge fan of Bovina (For shore's sake, I won't post my usual schpeel about Elena) so it's nice to see her put things together in a tight match. I'd like to pick her as the new favorite for the title, but she'll probably lose to Pistolesi (if she can oust Kuznetsova) in the next round.

Most of tomorrow's matches look pretty tame. I still like Dementieva for the title, although Mauresmo passed a stiff test against Steve-O.

One thing that I don't get is why Stevenson is so good indoors (both carpet and hardcourt), yet she plays horribly on outdoor hardcourts. Some indoor hardcourts can play slow, while some outdoor hardcourts can play fast, so one would think that she should win a few matches outdoors. My only guess is that her serve isn't affected by the elements indoors, where as the sun and wind could give her some trouble.

Nick

This tournament is wide open! Tomorrow, four Russians do battle against four Mediterraneans (if you include France as a Mediterranean country).

Nobody's mentioned Schiavone, but she's been as solid as anyone in the tourney since the beginning of August (losses only to Clijsters (twice), Cappy, and, oddly, Kleinova). She's not outstanding on carpet, but was able to beat Tauziat at this tourney in 2001.

Myskina should manage to upend Daniilidou, although Eleni is having one of her best tournaments of the year, and is seemingly feeling more comfy indoors. She honestly SHOULD be better indoors than she has been. Two wins by Anastasia might put her above Rubin in the #10 spot, so I'm doubly rooting for Daniilidou in that one.

In MOSCOW, Mo needed three to get past Zvonareva. Myskina blanked Daniilidou in the second set of thier quarterfinal. Dementieva and Pistolesi also advanced.

In JAPAN, Sharapova has made the semi's.

Tomorrow's semifinals in Moscow should be of vastly different qualities. Myskina-Pistolesi should be a romp for Anastasia. Prior to this week, Pistolesi had NEVER won a match on carpet, 0-9 lifetime, so she has to be very happy with her results in Moscow. Anastasia's best surface is carpet and she picked up a title in Germany last week. Myskina should win easily.

I would love for Dementieva-Mauresmo to be the power struggle that I think it should be. Like Myskina, Elena has posted her best results on carpet and she lost in the finals of Moscow in 2001 to Dokic. *sniff* Mauresmo has a solid carpet record as well, but I'd have to give the surface edge to Elena. The big question mark for me is going to be Amélie's serve. Elena has a great return of serve and I think that Elena's forehand will be clicking tomorrow off of Mo's 2nd serve. Dementieva should win the match, but I won't be surprised if it goes 3.

Nick

Mo beat Dementieva more easily than expected: 4 and 1, but, then again, Elena has played A LOT of tennis the past few weeks.

Mo's challenger in the finals will be Anastasia Myskina, who swept past Pistolesi, as expected.

Mo leads the head-to-head 2:0, including a fairly easy win on grass. Hmmmm... That kinda surprises me, to be honest.

And Myskina has won again!
Anastasia d. Amelia Mauresmo 6-2, 6-4 to earn the Kremlin Cup.

bpj, crunch the rankings #s for us. Since Myskina won and Mo was a finalist, and Dementieva was a semifinalist, who's likely to land where in the rankings next week?

Further, what does this mean for the women playing the Porsche?!? Who has to do well to qualify or solify their spot for the tour champs.?!?

I'm feeling chatty today...

Here's some scoop already on the stakes at the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix:
http://sports.yahoo.com/ten/news?slug=ap-c...ov=ap&type=lgns

If Mo can get past Shaughnessy in the first round, the top of the draw should be here (beware a lurking Hantuchova, though, who made the final here last year and who would greatly benefit from a last minute withdrawal from Clijsters)

The second quarter of the draw is the hardest. First round match ups between Dokic and Maggie Maleeva and Vera Zvonareva and Chanda Rubin really intrigue me, especially the Zvonareva v. Rubin match. Capriati is the high seed in this quarter, and there are t.i.g.h.t. (or at least interesting head-to-heads between Jenny/Maggie/Chanda...and who knows, Zvonareva might sneak thru!

Myskina opens against Alexandra Stevenson, which is an interesting match-up considering Steve-O's recent form (luck?) and Myskina's brilliant play of late. Myskina had two love sets in Moscow!

Dementieva opens against Petrova. Ouch. Henin should advance from this last quarter, and methinks she'll face Myskina in the semi's, which would be a rematch of their Leipzig final.

B Man, I agree with most of your predictions, although I think Justine may have a tougher road than expected.

Clijsters' possible withdrawl comes at the absolute worst time of year for her because, IMO, she's the best indoor player, excluding Serena.

On the other side of the draw, Justine's worst surface is indoors and she has the added pressure of taking over the #1 ranking with a berth in the finals. Given that Dementieva is in her quarter, I'm not really confident about her chances this week.

In the top quarter, if Clijsters is out, Mauresmo is my favorite to advance. Hantuchova has had success here, and if Clijsters is out, she'll be facing qualifiers/lucky losers till the quarters, but I don't think she has the goods to oust Amelie this week.

The second quarter is incredibly tough. Capriati looks vulnerable on this surface, as does Rubin. Chanda has yet to get to the quarters at this event. I'm not as confident about Zvonareva as the B Man, so I'll choose Maggie to do some damage here this week and advance out of this quarter. Poor Jelena, horrible draw and if she avoids playing in Australia next year, she could be out of the Top #30.

The third quarter has to be a mistake because the tournament's website has Davenport as the #3 seed. Unless the foot surgery went much better than she expected, the tournament's website must be wrong. (If this is true, then the entire draw may be changed because Mauresmo will be promoted to the #4 seed.) I think that Myskina will get through easily and Stevenson will start a rapid decline in the rankings this week. (Steve-O has 159.75 points to defend this week. A first round loss will drop her to, at best, #40.)

The bottom quarter is incredibly weak. Other than Dementieva and maybe Henin & Petrova, all of the players in this quarter prefer slower surfaces. I think if Dementieva can get past Petrova, no sure thing, she'll give Justine a very tight match in the quaters. Justine should win the match, but I'd like for it to go 3 sets.

Nick

Okay, here's the rankings update (a little late, sorry!):

At the beginning of this tournament, defending champ Clijsters is at a "baseline" of 6371 points. Defending early-loser Justine is at 6291. Both players have over 100 points in their 18th tournament. This means that each player has to get to at least the semis to start adding to her total.

Henin-Hardenne must reach the finals and hope that Clijsters loses before the finals, to have a shot at passing her. OR if both players reach the finals, a Justine win puts her at #1. It's getting exciting. Hopefully Kim can play up to her potential...

Meanwhile, lower down, Myskina's remarkable run puts her in a position to challenge both Mauresmo & Dementieva, each of whom is defending points here. A final by Myskina likely puts her past Venus into the #6 spot! Chanda is safe in the #10 spot, and a nice tournament could help move her up.

In the RACE, Venus and Dementieva are in a dead heat for the #7 spot. Myskina is a mere Quarterfinal finish away from Venus - it's increasingly likely that Venus and her 6 tournaments will not be enough to get her into LA this year on her own merit. Rubin is 200 points behind Anastasia now. She can make it to the year-ender if both Williams sisters are out; otherwise, she's got a tough road to hoe.

Filderstadt is an amazing tournament - other than Venus & Serena, every. single. woman. in the Top 20. Is participating. Except Schiavone - what's up with that? I imagine she didn't want to qualify (unlike Suarez, who failed to do so). So many question marks in this tourney, I'm NOT going to predict a winner. I just hope Chanda does well...

Oh by the way! Remember when the Russian women couldn't BUY a tournament victory? When it had been a full two years between Russian champs? Remember the US Open, when commentators were saying the Russians were more quantity than quality?

Well, for what it's worth, the Russians have won EVERY tournament since the US Open. Five straight.

No, they haven't won the big one. But come on - it's just a matter of time. Their overall athleticism is just too good. Now that they're gaining mental toughness, watch out. It will be fascinating to see how the US media handles it when they truly do take over the sport...

I seem to remember the "It's a matter of time" rationale when Kournikova first appeared. And then Dementieva. And when it's all on the line at the "big ones", I just can't see Myskina beating Henin-Hardenne or the Williams sisters (I'm leaving Clijsters out of that mix until SHE proves that she can beat Henin-Hardenne and/or the Williams sisters when it matters). I'm thinking that Zvonareva's Russia's biggest hope for now. But she, too, is also starting to fall into the earliest stages of the "Makes a big move up the rankings quickly" pattern that the Russians fall into, followed by "But they can't seem to get past the 5-6-7 spots".

Nope, 'til the Venus and Serena return, my money's gonna be on JHH. Yeah, she had a hiccup a few weeks ago, but mentally AND physically, she's easily the best player on tour right now -- and barring injury (or the return of Serena and Venus), I don't see that changing soon.

Hell, Venus, Lindsay, Justine and Jen all had the "they can't win the big one" tag at some point in their careers. All are multiple slam winners.

And OH by the way, Justine has lost to both Dementieva and Myskina this year; Venus lost to Zvonareva at the French; and Clijsters to Krasnoroutskaya.

This has been a breakthrough year for Russians. Kournikova & Dementieva a few years ago is nothing compared to what's happening now:

1997
Russians in Top 20 (year-end): ?? (0 in Top 10)
Russian records in finals: 1-1
Tier I tournaments won by Russians: 0

1998
Russians in Top 20 (year-end): 1
Russian records in finals: 0-1
Tier I tournaments won by Russians: 0

1999
Russians in Top 20 (year-end): 2
Russian records in finals: 1-2
Tier I tournaments won by Russians: 0

2000
Russians in Top 20 (year-end): 2
Russian records in finals: 0-4 (including Olympics)
Tier I tournaments won by Russians: 0

2001
Russians in Top 20 (year-end): 1
Russian records in finals: 0-2
Tier I tournaments won by Russians: 0

2002
Russians in Top 20 (year-end): 2
Russian records in finals: 6-7
Tier I tournaments won by Russians: 0

2003
Russians in Top 20 (to date): 4
Russian records in finals: 10-2
Tier I tournaments won by Russians: 1

Times have changed since Anna first burst onto the scene. Whether it's Dementieva, Myskina, Bovina, Sharapova, Kuznetsova, Zvonareva, Petrova, or Safina I can't say - but one of them will win a Grand Slam in the next three years. So it is written.

bpj - I was already believing you!
When you make a point, you sure do make it!!!

All joking aside, you make a compelling argument. It's hard to imagine that one of the young Russians won't break thru soon. They have a stronger support infrastructure than that of the Belgians - or the US, for that matter. I agree that it must be seen as fairly inevitable that one of them will break thru soon.

And to think that we have Anna K. to thank!

I think that a Russian will break through within the next 3 years as well. I read an article in Tennis Magazine that said, since the fall of Communism, tennis has been booming in Russia. We are just starting to see the effects of it on tour.

As for figuring out which Russian will make the break through, that's a tougher proposition. IMO, I think that Dementieva has the great chance because she seems like an all-surface player. She has had huge wins this year (Henin & Davenport on clay at Amelia Island, Mauresmo, Rubin, Myskina on hardcourts) and once she develops an actual 2nd serve, she'll be that much stronger. Since she has nothing to defend in Melbourne, she COULD be a Top 5 player afterwards. (She has semifinal points to defend from Filderstadt, but after that, she lost in the 2nd round of Zurich, Linz and in the 1st round of the Championships.) Food for thought.

I'm not as confident about Myskina only because there isn't a slam on carpet or indoors. She has the 3rd best winning percentage on carpet of Top 100 players playing in more than 5 events, winning 73% of her matches on the surface. IMO, if she's able to get to the EOY Championships, I think that she will be a huge threat. On the other surfaces, it's a tougher call. However, she got to the quarters this year at both Melbourne & Flushing Meadows, so she's starting to develop a game on hardcourts. I don't know if it will happen, but with with the way that her draw opened up at the Open, anything is possible.

I think that Sharapova is becoming a huge threat to anyone on tour right now. I would LOVE to see Maria play the Williams sisters, just to get a better measure of her play. I don't think that she could take a set off of Serena, but it'd be a fun match to watch. She took a set off of Clijsters in LA (no small feat for a non Top-5 player) and she's ousted Dokic, Bovina, Petrova, Dementieva and Dechy this year. In a year or two, I fully expect her to consistantly get to the quarters and beyond in Tier I tournaments.

The final Russian that I think could win a Slam is Petrova. (I've started to lose faith in Bovina, even with her great win last week ... Capriati on carpet isn't a big scalp anymore.) I'm a bit worried about her head, she's below 50% in 3 set matches, but she has great weapons and has threatened some top players. However, threatening Top 10 players is different than beating Top 10 players.

Nick

[ October 06, 2003, 07:59 PM: Message edited by: The_Hammerman ]

I still think that for the next two years or so, the circuit is likely to be dominated by the Williams/Belgian top 4. For an outsider to win a slam, they'll need to get by 2 or 3 of them, and I think that's too tough, especially since most of the Russians are not at their best on clay, where the Williamses are most vulnerable. Zvonareva might have a faint shot at the French. Dementieva could be a threat if she can develop a second serve, but that's a big if. I think we'll see some more Russian semifinalists, maybe a final appearance or two. In three years, Sharapova will be a threat to win one, though. Possibly Dinara Safina as well, but she hasn't progressed as I hoped/expected.

Myskina d. Stevenson, 0-6, 6-1, 4-0.
You gotta wonder what this match looked like. Was Steve-O on fire, in brilliant form, and then injured? Was Myskina tired or in a slump? What gives?!?!?

Dementieva d. Petrova, 6-3, 6-3
A shame they met so early in the tournament. Elena has had a great fall, though.

Zvonareva is tied with Rubin, 6-1, 4-6
They're on serve in the third set.

Rubin was down a break in that second set, getting wiped off the floor by Zvonareva. That she was able to turn it around is a huge boost for Chanda. Maleeva is a great test for her next. If she can somehow fend off Maggie, she's in a great position to remain in the Top 10 and forge ahead of Venus in the year-end rankings.

Meanwhile, Amelie is up a set on Meghann, winning a first-set tiebreak. Shaughnessy had the makings of a great year, but couldn't pull it all together. Nonetheless, she is likely to finish in the Top 20 again. Which ain't so bad.

UPDATE: Amelie wins!

Oh my gosh - not the right thread but how humiliating for Fed Cup. Clijsters & Henin-Hardenne both out

[ October 08, 2003, 10:41 AM: Message edited by: bridgeportjake ]

Steve-O has struggled with back trouble for most of the year and this flare-up couldn't have come at a worse time. Hopefully, she'll recover in time to play in Zurich next week. Myskina has another test tomorrow against Bovina.

Dementieva picked up a nice win over Petrova. I think that she has enough weapons to test Henin on carpet.

Maleeva-Rubin is a great match-up on carpet, although I'm leaning towards Maggie to win. Zvonareva is a talented youngster, but Maggie knows how to play on carpet.

IMO, the most interesting match will be Davenport-Sugiyama. Lindsay shouldn't have any problem with Ai, but given the injury layoff, Ai could keep it close. In any event, Lindsay should win in, at worst, 3 sets.

Another interesting match will be Pierce-Capriati. I doubt that it will be a high quality match, but it'd be a great slugfest to watch.

Lots of great matches this week, yet we will only see the championship match, if we're lucky. (Isn't it on Oxygen this weekend?)

Nick

Jen-Pierce will be interesting but will all rest on Jen's shoulders. Jen has never lost to Pierce, in fact, the last time they met was at Rome 2002 and Jen won 6-0, 6-0! Embarrassing for Mary, so she probably wants revenge, but which Jennifer will show up?
Jen is a better player than Mary in all areas, forehand, backhand, volleying, serving, fitness and movement but her recent losses might contribute here, as well as the fact that Indoors are probably Jen's worst surface, if she has any!
I really think Jen isn't a bad player indoors, just that she had eye troubles last year and is usually sick or tired after the long season to do well lately!
She has titles in Quebec and Luxembourg on carpet, had that great match against Serena last year at the Championships and is a former finalist in Chicago, Philly, again at Quebec and a semifinalist at Zurich a few times, so she can play on this surface!

[ October 08, 2003, 05:43 PM: Message edited by: tennisbudcali ]

tennisbudcali, I agree with you that JenCap should take out Pierce tomorrow, however I must disagree about her ability indoors.

Since 1997, JenCap's only 10-11 on carpet. (Indoors, she's a more credible 33-23.) While she won Quebec (1999) & Luxembourg (2000), they're only Tier III events. I can't think of any Tier IV or Tier V events on carpet or indoors, so the tourneys that she has won were with weak fields.

The other results that you mentioned ... Chicago (1996), Philly (pre-1996), Quebec (as a finalist in 2000 ... which was the same week as Leipzig, a much stronger event, so the field was weak) are over 3 years old. (Her most recent semifinal appearance in Zurich was 2001, so that is even a bit of a stretch.)

IMO, JenCap has struggled mightily indoors, so any win is a step in the right direction. After JenCap's collapse at the Open this year, I'd love for her to have a breakthrough at a Tier I Indoor event, but I'll be shocked if she gets to the semifinals this week.

Nick

[ October 08, 2003, 06:22 PM: Message edited by: The_Hammerman ]

Interesting results today:

Pierce d. Capriati, 6-4, 6-2
Bovina d. Myskina, 6-2, 6-3
Clijsters d. Hantuchova, 6-1, 6-1
...and Mauresmo is up a set on Schynder

B Man, I was just going to post the result of the Pierce-JenCap match. I think that most people want JenCap to do well, but on this surface, chances are that it's not going to happen. Was the tournament at the Staples Center on carpet or indoor hardcourts last year? I'm thinking carpet, eh? Mary has always played well on carpet, especially recently, because it plays to her power game and given her lack of fitness, she wants the points to be as short as possible.

I'm a bit surprised by Bovina ousting Myskina on carpet, but Anastasia said that she was tired after her first round match against Steve-O, so I shouldn't be surprised by her early loss here.

Clijsters demolished Hantuchova, 1 and 1. Not much to say there.

While I'd love to skip class to "watch" the Davenport-Sugiyama match on the web, I'll force myself to spend the next 3 hours in Chem lab.

Nick

Davenport won easily. I'm impressed that's she's already had foot surgery (right?) and is back this fast.

Why is Capriati is so mediocre on carpet? She obviously plays a power game too. Although it's easy to see why slow vs. fast surfaces would favor certain players, I've never understood the idiosyncrasies of things like outdoors vs. indoors (obviously no wind, which is good for servers with a high toss). Ironically, the news report said that Pierce won lots of points by coming to the net. Pretty surprising that the "Queen Mary" could move fast enough to get there.

Bovina just beat Lindsay pretty damn handily. Not a shocker, given Bovina's potential and recent play, and of course Lindsay's situation. I would love to see Lindsay give us one or two more top-quality years, and not just fade away.

Pierce/Maleeva is a fascinating matchup, and I'm happy for both players that they got this far, even if they had to beat my favorite players to do so. I picked Pierce but of course with her you never know. Rooting for Pierce to the extent that I really want her back in the Top 15, and a breakthrough here (i.e. a win) would be a huge step towards that.

Bovina already has 207 points in this tourney. A win over not-on-her-best-surface Justine gives her an additional 130, putting her back in the Top 20. A tourney win over Kim puts her in the Top 16. Maybe she's ready for that run that Nick(?) predicted for her last year.

I've never understood why certain players struggle indoors as well, especially JenCap. The pace of a hardcourt can vary greatly, whether it be indoors or outdoors, so it can't be due to the court itself. In terms of playing on carpet, I absolutely hated playing on it because the "bounce" is very different ... the ball moves so much quicker (it just skids), the bounce is lower (I first time I tried to hit a ball from the forehand side, I hit the worst frame shot ever seen on a tennis court because the ball was a foot lower than I expected), and I had to get prepped for the next ball much quicker than usual.

Bovina is looking very solid this week. She came close to ousting Lindsay a few times last year, so it's great to see her finally pick up a win over Lindsay. Elena was injured during the clay court season and she finally looks to be getting back in form.

Pierce picked up a huge win over Maleeva in two close sets. Since she has nothing to defend until Australia, so she could be a seed in Australia with another solid result next week in Zurich. While I doubt that she'll hurt Clijsters on this surface, but it's another step in the right direction for Mary.

Nick

It still seems like it ought to be a decent surface for Jen. After all, Clijsters is very successful on carpet, and she plays a similar style. Despite the loss to Myskina, I still think Justine will prove to be too much for Bovina, even on carpet. Her serve is much improved this year. It is good to see that Elena is finally coming around after a dreadfully disappointing year. Now, if only Daniilidou, Dokic, and Hantuchova could get their act together.

Pierce is too streaky! She can beat top players one week, then lose to a nobody the next week!

She may have beaten Jen but Jen is burnt out after the Open and just doesn't care anymore at this point! It seems like Jen tanked that match!

With a hungry Jen, Mary would have gone down in straight sets!