Per shore's request, a poll about Who Will Dominate Women's Tennis next.

and I owe you a beer, maybe even a six pack given the particularly nuanced quality of the questions--really made me think. and thanks for being so speedy with my request.

Could we have an option of NO one player dominating? I think Maria Sharapova will eventually dominate, but not for another couple of years. Until, then, I think we'll have a time when several players vie for dominance, like from 1998-2001.

JC, those are the years I think of Hingis dominating the game, and by dominating I mean winning 1o, 12, 13 tournaments a year. I agree, there was lots of competition then from the Williams, Davenport, Capriati and Seles, but Hingis was the IT girl then. Right? I'd have to drag out my old Tennis Weeks to really check, but if memory serves me well...

Well, yes, and we might see someone stay number one for a long time, as Hingis did, but Hingis won only two of the 16 majors played during those years. She remained arguably the best player in the world until the spring of 2001, but she wasn't really a dominant #1 after '97.

I'm surprised to see so many people on the Sharapova bandwagon and off the Williams wagon. Remember, Sharapova still cannot play all the tournaments she would like to play because of her age. I think she's still resticted to 14 or 16 tournaments rather than 18 or unlimited. but it still surprises me so many people are of the Williams wagon.

I wanted to just vote for Amelie for everything, but I didn't ... I was good. In fact, I didn't vote for Mauresmo at all. I think she can be in the mix all the time, but I don't see her as ever playing the type of consistent tennis week-in and week-out that would be required to be dominant.

I went with Justine for two of the three questions. I'm surprised more people don't think she'll come back and kick major butt.

I was disappointed to not see an option to choose Ai Sugiyama as the next dominant player. Sigh.

No, I don't think Justine will come back to any sort of dominance. She may still eek our a major or two. Maybe. Clijsters will win a major or two someday, but never really dominate.

I kind of agree with JC. I think the next year will be sort of a free for all, which is kind of exciting. The only one I think is the biggest threat to dominate in the next 12 months is if Serena gets back on track. I hope to Gaea Venus gets her schtick together and wins a major, maybe the US Open, but i don't think she'll stay healthy long enough to dominate. Same with Mauresmo. She could still win a major, maybe two, but her body just won't stay healthy enough week to week or even major to major to "dominate".

I think as Sharapova develops and some of the current big girls get on in age, she seems completely capable of owning the tour. It's not bandwagoning, she's the youngest player out there right now that has the game and the head to do it.

I agree with curtj on almost everything, but I'm a little bit more optimistic about Justine. I expect her to win a couple more French Opens and maybe an Australian. Still, I doubt she'll ever dominate the tour again the way she did last year. Serena is the most likely to dominate, but I don't foresee her winning four consecutive majors again. I doubt she'll win the French again. As to Sharapova: with very few exceptions--Tracy Austin and Michael Chang are the only ones I can think of--players who win majors when they're very young do big things with their careers.

see, even JC agrees that we've overlooked Ai Sugiyama as the most dominant player in women's tennis... ever.

lol

Although Michael Chang never won another major- I think he was successful enough at competing and reaching high enough in the rankings in the mid-90s to merit enough of a succesful career.

Also- what about Majoli? Did she win a tournament after her French?

Oh, Chang certainly had a successful enough career by most standards, but I think (unless there's somebody before the open era) he's the only player to win a major before his 18th birthday who's not in the Hall of Fame. Majoli fell apart completely, but she was 19 when she won the French--that's not extraordinarily young for a woman tennis player.

OK--just realized Seles and Hingis aren't in the Hall of Fame, if somebody wants to get picky. They WILL be, however.

[ July 24, 2004, 01:21 PM: Message edited by: JC ]

I don't think the age of 18 should really be used for the men. Hasnt only Wilander and Change been the only pre-18 winners on the ATP tour?

Seles will no doubt be in the Hall of Fame because of her period of dominance, the story of her stabbing and her comeback. I think she is a 5 year out no doubter.

I could see that Hingis might need to wait a little bit after the 5 year mark. Maybe not- because she was a great doubles player too... but to me- her reign was exceptionally brief.

I agree. For men, winning a slam at age 19 is exceptional enough to almost guarantee a hall-of fame future--excepting Michael Chang.

I think Hingis is a no-brainer hall of Fame player--four years at number one, a career winning percentage of .825, five majors in singles, plus doubles prowess, several WTA championships. The standards aren't that high--after all, Tracy Austin, Hana Mandlikova, and Pam Shriver (presumably on the basis of doubles) are all in.

While I think Maria totally outplayed Serena in the Wimbledon final; she has to win another major w/in the next 2 years to not become a one slam wonder.

To win Wimbleon early in one's career is huge and will change her life forever - she will always be know as the Wimbledon champion.

Let's hope she stays focus on her game - as she can only get better. The question is, can she!!!

hey B Man, so many responses to your poll--well done. I like it when we're discussing the "philosophy" and "nature" of the game sometimes, rather than just the results.

I see that, not unexpectedly, Clijsters has withdrawn for the US Open and with JHH still out recovering from the viral infection we surely cannot expect to see much more of the Belgian women for 2004.

On the same note JHH plans to play at the Olympics (in that heat!) and then return to New York for the Open. Seems to me a strange schedule for one returning from a debilitating virus.

I look at the Open clearly as resting between Lindsay and the Russians. It is amazing just how much the landscape has changed in the past twelve months!!

[ August 03, 2004, 04:59 PM: Message edited by: xanthos ]