If you haven't read David's column on the Outsports home page, do so.
Kudos, David. And welcome back. You’ve been missed.
As usual, you present thoughtful analysis. I'm really glad to hear that you're starting up all the pigskin prognostication for Outsports.
I concur on nearly all of the teams you predict to challenge in the "Lower 5." But I did have a few points to add.
C USA – David’s pick – TCU (Southern Miss and Tulane as possible contenders)
Obviously the “safe bet,” most people would pick TCU over the field. But I’m a bit concerned about this year and next. Admittedly, I’m no expert on TCU recruiting, but my impression last year was that Patterson won with Franchione’s players. Please respond if that view is unfounded.
I really can’t see Tulane mustering much, especially a challenge to TCU. But Southern Miss figures to improve, and their QB is downright delicious.
Since I am a betting man, I like to pick darkhorses; teams that are undervalued, yet have a reasonable outside shot at surprising folks. On those odds, I’d take South Florida. They may’ve been thumped by Arkansas and Oklahoma last year, but they beat Northern Illinois, and Conference USA members Southern Miss, East Carolina, Memphis and Houston. 4-0 versus teams in a conference they are joining. Hmmmm…..
The litmus test for the Bulls is at Alabama, August 30th. If ever there were a time for a lower echelon school to play a program like Alabama, this is it. Probation plus two lawsuits. It’s better than Ringling Brothers, baby! Should the Bulls shock the world, the momentum may carry them clear through to November.
They get Louisville, TCU, Cincinnati, and UAB at home. They get road games against Southern Miss, East Carolina, Memphis (all teams they beat last year) plus Army (hah!)
I LIKE THE CHANCES ON THESE GUYS…AND THE VEGAS ODDS ARE SWEET!
Mountain West – David’s pick - Colorado State (BYU to challenge)
Talent wise, I’d have to agree with you on taking the Rams over the Cougars. But Colorado State plays at BYU. Mind you, BYU will be coming off a Thursday night ESPN game. That game, however, is at San Diego State (guffaw!). The Rams will be coming in off a home game against FRESNO STATE! Eeek.
The adrenaline will be tapped out between Colo State and Fresno. It’ll be interesting to see how Colo State recovers after that game.
WAC – David’s pick - Hawaii (Fresno State to challenge)
Chang’s good, no doubt. June Jones just got signed to a near lifetime deal. The University of Hawaii administration views him as some native Messiah, from what I’ve read. Optimism is high out in the Pacific. But I have a nagging concern for the Warriors. Their early schedule is soft. Yeah, they play at USC to open. And over the next four weeks they play UNLV, Rice, and Tulsa. I’ve formed an opinion over the years that teams need to avoid long stretches of poor teams on the schedule. It does something to the minds of the players, almost as if they lose their edge. Hawaii will come into the Fresno State game having faced no real competition in a month.
Fresno State comes into that same game having played a schedule that follows; Tennessee, Oregon State, Oklahoma (Dear God!), Louisiana Tech, and Colorado State.
The Bulldogs will come in either extremely banged up, or ready to kill someone. I’d give the Bulldogs an edge on Hawaii in the depth charts. I’m taking Fresno State in that game and to win the WAC, and Louisiana Tech as the runner-up.
As for the MAC and Sun Belt, I offer no opinions. Aside from Marshall and perhaps Central Florida, the whole lot of them belong in I-AA.
[ July 23, 2003, 11:22 PM: Message edited by: AU Tiger in LA ]