Two months to go in the MLB season and we've got 9 teams within 6 games of each other for the NL Wild Card. I'm assuming the NL East and West will be won by the Braves and Giants. This poll is to determine the Outsports pick to win the NL's Wild Card.

I'm waiting til I see what deals are made today.

Amazing: who has the best record in MLB since May 22? Florida, somewhere around .667.

The Marlins will probably win the NL Wild Card. None of the contenders made any significant deadline deals; LA needs alot more help than Robin Ventura. If the field beats itself up, and its just Philadelphia and Florida going into Sept. 1 when almost all of the remaining games arer intra-division, the Marlins will win because they have the best intra-division record in the East (Yes, even better than the Braves, and significantly better than Philadelphia.) Not to mention that upcoming series include, Milwaukee, San Diego, and Pittsburgh twice. AND the Marlins play the Phillies six games in the last two weeks and the Marlins own the season series 9-4 plus 8 in a row. And as was mentioned earlier on this thread, starting with May 23, the Marlins are 40-20 eek! , the best record in MLB over that period. Yes, hard as it is to believe, the Florida Marlins will be the National League Wild Card. And everyone remembers what happened last time the Marlins won the NL Wild Card.

GO MARLINS!!!!

Just because they're on a hot streak now means nothing. You mention the Marlins are 9-4 vs the Phillies. So let's look at the standings outside of those 13 games:

Phillies 56-38
Marlins 50-45

That's a 6 1/2 game difference. So even if (and that's a BIG if) the Marlins were to win all 6 of those final games against the Phils, they STILL have to gain ground by beating some other teams.

I just like the odds of Unit & Schilling joining Webb and Batista as a conistent Four for Arizona, and their vets and kids hitting enough to outlast the Phils and Marlins. Astros would be a possibility if St. Louis passes them, but I don't see it as likely.

You mean like the sweep of Arizona? OK, we can do that. And, so you swept LA, you and every one else lately, you lost to CINCINNATI. And if the Marlins stay a game and a half behind the Phils down the stretch, they'd only have to win four of six, which isn't such a stretch. And to say theyre hot lately is an understatement. 60 games is more than half of the season up to this point, and over that span Philly's winning PCT hasnt changed almost at all, before May 23, Philly was 26-21, or .563. Since May 23, Philly is 34-26, or .567. Over that span, the last 60 games, the Marlins winning pct is 100 points better, 40-20, .667. If you stretch that out to the end of the season, Florida will be 36-18 over their last 54, and Philly will be 31-24 over their last 55. That means regular season records of 95-67 for Florida, and 91-71 for Philadelphia. Have fun watching the Marlins on TV in October, maybe you'll see me at the game, even though you wouldn't know it was me :cool: .

[ August 12, 2003, 11:18 PM: Message edited by: marlins97twins91 ]

You can pick out any part of the season to make comparisons. The point is, none of it matters. It doesn't matter how hot a team has been. It's not guaranteed to stay that way. Remember when the Phils went from 10 1/2 behind Atlanta to 4 1/2 behind in the matter of 2 weeks? Not long after, they fell right back into the larger gap. The same thing can easily happen to the Marlins. It's all going to come down to what happens the rest of the way. May the best team (Phillies) win!

[ August 01, 2003, 11:23 AM: Message edited by: Joe in Philly ]

I agree with the first statement, not the second. It should read: "May the best team (Marlins) win!"

Yes, but your screen name indicates that there was an NBA game between the Marlins and Twins with the final score 97-91, so you're obviously confused. wink

I'm not even going to dignify that with an explanation. If you're a true baseball fan, you know what it means.

Obviously I know what it means. Hence the use of the graemlins. Perhaps you need to turn on the portion of your brain that explains the concept of "humor."

There's still plenty of time for a couple of the teams to pull away (or fade, like I am almost certain the Rockies will do soon), but it's interesting that so many teams are so close in this race. Not being the most informed baseball fan, is this year closer than other years have been, up to this point? My heart wants the Cubs to make a run and either win the Central or claim the wild card; my head tells me the Diamondbacks aren't going to fade and should close the gap on the Giants (though I don't know if they can catch them). But all I have to do is root for a team -- any team, any sport this year -- and it's a guaranteed kiss of death. The only exception is when the Bucs won the Super Bowl, but I wasn't rooting for them as much as I was rooting against the Raiders. Back to baseball...I'll go with the Cubs for purely sentimental reasons.

I know that there are people who consider themselves baseball purists, and they hate the current MLB playoff system. Primarily, they just hate the idea of wild cards.

Here's the theoretical standings in the old format, minus Milwaukee (AL interlopers), but allowing for Arizona and Florida as an act of normal expansion. The Games Behind (GB) factor assumes a record comparable to the current one, which may or may not be acurate.

East GB
1. Philly **
2. Florida 1.5
3. St Louis 3.5
4. Montreal 5
5. Chicago 6
6. Pittsburgh 9.5
7. NY Mets 17.5

West GB
1. Atlanta **
2. San Fran 5
3. Houston 14
4. Arizona 16
5. Colorado 18.5
6. Los Angeles 18.5
7. Cincinnati 22
8. San Diego 30.5

Under the old format, the Giants might be faced with no playoffs by virtue of being in Atlanta's division (the geographics of that division never made sense anyways).
How can anyone argue that a superior Giants team should be denied a spot while Philly should make it in? Yeah, the east would be an interesting race, but I don't think the warm sentimentalism of the old system can overcome the horrible memories of 2nd place teams with better teams than the 1st place champ in the other division.

Great point Tiger. It also points out that the only truly fair way of playoff determination is to eliminate divisions, and take the top four records in each league (MLB has gotten too big to take just the top one or two plus you can't eliminate a round of playoffs after youve created it), similar to the NBA and NHL, except they still have divisions. Right now, under the three division and wild card system, were the season to end today, the true number four teams in each league (Oakland and Florida) would be left out.

RIGHT NOW
American League
East
*New York 67-41
*Boston 63-46
Toronto 55-55
Baltimore 52-55
Tampa Bay 41-67

Central
*Kansas City 58-50
Chicago 58-52
Minnesota 54-55
Cleveland 45-65
Detroit 29-79

West
*Seattle 67-43
Oakland 63-47
Anaheim 53-56
Texas 47-63

National League
East
*Atlanta 73-37
*Philadelphia 62-48
Florida 60-50
Montreal 57-54
New York 44-68

Central
*Houston 59-51
St. Louis 58-52
Chicago 55-54
Pittsburgh 51-57
Cincinnati 51-59
Milwaukee 44-68

West
*San Francisco 68-42
Arizona 57-53
Colorado 56-57
Los Angeles 54-55
San Diego 43-69

AS SUGGESTED ABOVE
American League
*New York 67-41
*Seattle 67-43
*Boston 63-46
*Oakland 63-47
Kansas City 58-50
Chicago 58-52
Toronto 55-55
Minnesota 54-55
Anaheim 53-56
Baltimore 52-55
Texas 47-63
Cleveland 45-65
Tampa Bay 41-67
Detroit 29-79

National League
*Atlanta 73-37
*San Francisco 68-42
*Philadelphia 62-48
*Florida 60-50
Houston 59-51
St. Louis 58-52
Arizona 57-53
Montreal 57-54
Chicago 55-54
Colorado 56-57
Los Angeles 54-55
Pittsburgh 51-57
Cincinnati 51-59
Milwaukee 44-66
New York 44-66
San Diego 43-69

Responding to two points made by AU Tiger in LA:

Under the old format, the Giants might be faced with no playoffs by virtue of being in Atlanta's division (the geographics of that division never made sense anyways).
To the contrary, the old NL West made perfect sense geographically. The teams of the old 12-team National League in effect from from 1969 to 1993 broke down in four groups of three:
Northeast: Philadelphia, NY Mets, Montreal
Great Lakes: Chicago, St Louis, Pittsburgh
West: L.A., San Francisco, San Diego
South: Houston, Atlanta, Cincinnati
Pittsburgh fits with the Great Lakes because, culturally, the 'Burgh is more like Chicago and M'waukee than Phillie or Washington. Why is Cincinnati in the South? Because it's fan base was largely points south, into Kentucky and Tennessee. Before the A-Braves moved to Atlanta in '66, the Reds (and, to a lesser extent, the Cardinals) were the home team for the Southeast, so putting the Reds in the same division as the two obvious southern teams made sense culturally. At least more sense than Dallas being an eastern franchise in the NFL (with New Orleans and Atlanta in the NFC West).

How can anyone argue that a superior Giants team should be denied a spot while Philly should make it in?
Some of us think a great pennant race is more much more exciting than the divisional round of the playoffs. We would welcome an encore performance of the great Braves/Giants pennant race from '93 (the last great pennant race there will ever be).

That 93 race, by the way, tapped out the tanks of both SF and ATL, and ATL wound up losing to an inferior Phillies team that had rested the last week of the season. Were SF and ATL not in the same division back then, then either could've taken out the Phils. It was sad for the Giants to come so close, and watch the 3rd best team in the NL make it to the WS.

Oh yeah, let's do something that the NHL does. That league is sooooo brilliant that hockey has become less popular than high school badminton.

No matter which way you do things, someone is always going to be left out. It's like all the whining about the interleague play schedules being unfair to some teams. It all balances out over the ages. One year a division is strong, the next year it's weak. Anything can happen, and usually does.

Following the baseball pennant races daily is one of the greatest things any sport has to offer. Following the NBA and NHL playoff races are a yawner--more than half the teams make it anyway, so who cares? And as exciting as the NFL may be, it's a once-per-week event. There's nothing to follow.

MLB doesn't have exactly the greatest track record either. You know what really killed baseball in Montreal, the 1994 strike, from which baseball STILL hasn't fully recovered. Oh by the way, the 'Spos had the best record in baseball when the strike was called; they've never won a pennant in their 34 seasons.

OK, try telling that to a Red Sox (1918), White Sox(1917), Indians(1948), Cubs(1908), or Giants(1954, when they were still playing at the Polo Grounds) fans. Or the older expansion teams that haven't won: Houston, Montreal, Seattle, Milwaukee, San Diego, and Texas.

OMG, something we argree on. Just to clarify, I never suggested that their should be eight playoff qualifiers, I agree that that's stupid, I suggested that the playoffs should be the four best records in each league, period. But then again, I knew I could count on Joe to disagree with me , he's never failed to do so. wink

This thread has kinda diverged but I guess I'll run with it (and probably stir up some shit at the same time). Back when there was all that talk about contraction, I hatched this little idea. First of all, I never thought contraction was a good idea (unless you're talking about the Yankees. ) Second, I thought MLB was off by targeting Minnesota, they should've been targeting Tampa Bay and Montreal. Thats how this idea began:

New MLB Allignment
AL East
Boston
New York Yankees
Toronto
Baltimore
FLORIDA(NL East to AL East)

AL Central
Minnesota
Chicago White Sox
Detroit
Cleveland
Kansas City

AL West
Seattle
Oakland
Anaheim
PORTLAND (formerly Tampa Bay)

NL East
New York Mets
Philadelphia
Atlanta
PITTSBURGH (NL Central to NL East)
WASHINGTON (formerly Montreal)

NL Central
Cincinnati
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee
St. Louis
Houston
TEXAS (AL West to NL Central)

NL West
Colorado
Arizona
San Francisco
Los Angeles
San Diego

First, instead of contracting Montreal and Tampa Bay, move them to cities that are looking for teams. Tampa goes to Portland and the West Division. The Marlins change leagues to make up for Tampa not being in the AL East. Plus, the Marlins have always done well against AL teams in Interleague play, and having 9 or 10 Yankees and Red Sox games a year down in Miami would do wonders for attendance. Pittsburgh moves to the East, to replace Florida, and setting up a Philly-Pittsburgh division rivalry. And Texas changes leagues and moves to its true geographical division, Central, solving the problem of having all of your road division games two time zones away, and setting up a Dallas-Houston division rivalry.

All right guys, go to town, have fun with this one.

Fair? Life isn't fair. The system you propose is one of the few that could be worse than the present one. "Hooray, we've clinched the #2 seed!"

If the wild card is going to be retained, the playoff format has to be tweaked so it's markedly tougher for the winner to succeed. Make them all but one game of the divisional series on the road, or something similarly steep.

If you can get MLB to move out of Tampa Bay, this is a very workable alignment. Problem is, there seems to be no move to get out of Tampa.

Now back to the NL Wild Card:

Blondie had three hits, including the game-tying homer in the 8th and the two-run homer in the 10th to put the Phils ahead to stay. If this finally is the slump-ender we've been waiting for, the rest of the contenders need to beware.

Detroit got its whopping 30th win the other day! eek! If bad teams have good days every now and then; bad players must have good days every now and then too.

[ August 10, 2003, 12:06 AM: Message edited by: marlins97twins91 ]

I know there's not a move to get out of Tampa, I'm saying there should be.

[ August 10, 2003, 12:10 AM: Message edited by: marlins97twins91 ]

I was happy to see Burrell finally have a multi-homer game after the awful slump he has been in. He really needs to come on strong over the next 7 weeks for the Phillies to maintain their wildcard position. I hope this blonde ambition tour by Pat the Bat puts some excitement back into the team that has been sorely missing.

The Marlins are really playing strong with decent pitching and timely hitting. One wonders if they are due to hit a skid. It should be an exciting finish (I hope) between the teams at the top of the wildcard.

[ August 10, 2003, 09:22 AM: Message edited by: phillyrunner ]

I know the Suncoast Dome is an eyesore inside and out that should never have been built ...

And I know that, in general, Tampa/St. Pete is a sub-par sports market across the board, for whatever reason ...

But it's way way way too early to declare the Tampa Bay baseball experiment a failure. The team has been irredeemably stinky for its five plus seasons, yet attendance has never been Montreal bad. And if the Expos were moved to Washington/Northern Virginia, and the D-Rays were then moved out of a City by the Bay, Tampa/St. Pete would instantly become - by far - the largest metropolitan area in the country without a professional baseball franchise. Much bigger than Portland, Sacramento, Charlotte, Indianapolis, Las Vegas or wherever, by a minimum of 50 percent (depending on how you measure Portland and Tampa/St. Pete).

There's a reason why no one is talking about moving the D-Rays. It makes no economic sense to abandon this market, especially since Bay Area (Florida side) baseball fans have only had truly awful home teams to weakly support..

Now ... to the issue at hand ... the NL wild card. It's coming out of the East or the West. Ain't no way the Central is getting two playoff teams. If someone among the 'stros, Cards and Cubs (unlikely the third one) gets hot, they'll win the division, not jump into the wild card fray.

Philly and the Florida Fish are in the wild card race. The Dodgers might get back in it if they can score any runs. I think Arizona is dead for the year. And Colorado has just been sticking too close to .500 the entire season (with sub-.500 talent) to mount a challenge.

And my question is this: does this matter? The Giants are really looking like the class of the NL this season. The Braves fancy record is a mirage.

Think I'm underestimating the A-Braves? Just look, like the sabermetricians do, at the ratio of runs scored to runs against. No way that team should have a .660 winning percentage.

[ August 10, 2003, 09:52 AM: Message edited by: Charlie in the Trees ]

Yet they only managed to go 3-3 against the Phils this year.

OMG, the Dodgers are starting to score some runs and winning eek! . They're starting to scare me and they should be scaring all the Phillies Phans that inhabit this board(Why is that, are there more gay sports fans in Philly? wink ) Luckily the Marlins have a chance to put the Dodgers in a deep hole this week; LA is down in Miami for a four game series starting Monday night, and tonite, while Philly is idle, the D-Train is the starting pitcher, so in all likelihood, when you wake up Tuesday morning, the Marlins will have a half game lead.

Oooops! Not quite. wink

the math wasn't quite there ... one woulda thought that Dontrelle + the Dodgers = 2-hitter not 2 innings

Yeah, I guess I'll have to eat my words on that one . But, Joe in Philly, I did say, "in all likelihood," not definitely.
I guess Dubya was at the game practicing some "fuzzy math" wink .

But Charlie, the same argument can be pointed at the San Francisco Giants, who have almost exactly the same number of runs scored and against as the Phillies. The real puzzle is why the Phillies and Astros can't seem to get their act together.

Especially the Phillies. I think most sabermetric projections of wins and losses, based on runs scored to run against, up until very recently had projected the Phillies to be leading that division over the A-Braves.

For example, see here from the BaseballProspectus.com website

The D-Backs have been underachieving in the NL, too, but with their old pitching, I think they're on a downward spiral.

I keep throwing out the word "sabermetric" in my posts in this thread, like I'm chumming for Bill W, yet he's not taking the bait. What's up with that??)

[ August 12, 2003, 04:38 PM: Message edited by: Charlie in the Trees ]

Did anyone see the Marlins-Dodgers game, besides me?! That game is an instant classic; blown calls, 13 innings, 7 innings of excellent bullpen work for both teams, and to top it off, a monster walkoff HR to win the game. I don't care who you're rooting for, this was an excellent baseball game. But it does make it all that sweeter for me that the Marlins won and now have sole possession of the top spot in the NL wild card race , however small that lead may be . If it had been a playoff game, it would one of the ones they play on ESPN Classic wink .


And, Joe in PHL, how was Gay Day? Besides the fact that Phlops lost to the bottom-feeding Brew-Crew wink . I know, I know, the Fish lost to them Sunday in Milwaukee, but they did take 2 of 3, and it was a close game, so it wasn't too bad.

[ August 12, 2003, 11:31 PM: Message edited by: marlins97twins91 ]

I've sent in my report to Outsports. Pics to follow.

As far as the game is concerned: I am SICK of Jimmy Rollins. He's a scrawny little guy with speed and he thinks he's Barry freakin' Bonds! I am tired of his swinging recklessly instead of trying to work the count and draw some walks, or bunting for hits. And he doesn't even care! His last at-bat, with a runner on base, and he swings at the first pitch and pops up.

From Friday's Phila. Daily News:

Guys you should have heard JIP during the game last night yelling at Rollins. And I agree with him. Rollins definitely is not being patient enough at the plate. He just swings away. His job is to get on base using his speed and ball placement, small ball is what we need out of him.

On another note I think the "Duck" is cooked for the season, perhaps it is time to go to a four man rotation until more pitchers are available in September.

Duckworth has been sent to triple-A. The Phils have recalled Chase Utley. Apparently they may try Utley at second and Placido Polanco at third since David Bell continues to be on the disabled list.

Amaury Telemaco will come up from Scranton and is probably going to start Sunday. When he's recalled they'll have to get rid of someone else (Nick Punto?).

It's such a shame that the Phillies sent Duckworth to triple-A, he was doing so well for the Marlins. And Jimmy Rollins can keep on swinging at everything. wink

Three hits for Chase Utley. Things are back to normal in the NL wild card standings now.

It'll be back to where it should be after these upcoming series, St. Louis, doing well recently, is playing the Phlunkers, and the Friars are down in Florida, so things are looking pretty good.

You were saying?

Last night, with scottie and myself in attendance, the Phils busted out to a 5-0 first-inning lead and when the Cards got close, Jim Thome hit a towering drive that hit the moon and dropped over the right-field fence to clinch the game.

Tonight, with scottie and myself on the field before the game for Photo Night (though we were attending separately this time) the Cards took the lead but after Bobby Abreu crushed a double to get the Phils within one, Jim Thome hit another bomb to put the Phils ahead, followed by Mike Lieberthal's smash over the left-field fence. And in the 9th, with the scorching-hot in so many ways Albert Pujols, Tino Martinez and Scott Rolen (who homered earlier) leading off, Jose Mesa (!!!!!!!!!!) came in--and got the save, striking out Rolen in the process.

It looks like I may have to go on Sunday night as well, since scottie is already going to be there and we need to ensure the sweep.

I'm sure all the petty Phans in Philly derived near orgasmic pleasure from that. And if you haven't been paying attention, the Marlins are going for a sweep tomorrow, too. I'll probably go to the game.(That'll make 3 day games this season, more than I've ever been to. Day games in August in Miami, worst idea ever. :mad: People leaving the stadium on day games are redder than the graemlin and dripping wet, either from sweat or rain or both. ) Last home game before I move. frown

[ August 17, 2003, 12:50 AM: Message edited by: marlins97twins91 ]

...and the Cards are swept away! The Marlins are still looking up at the wild card leaders. And the Phils didn't even need me there.

Now the Phils are on the road for two weeks--at Milwaukee, St. Louis, Montreal and New York. After that 16 of the last 26 are at the Vet.

And by the way, the Phils have already beaten their 2002 attendance for the ENTIRE season. Last year in 79 home dates they drew 1,618,230. Right now they're at 1,650,897 with those 16 games left--which includes a Mike Schmidt bobblehead giveaway, Fan Appreciation Day and those final three regular season games at the Vet, the last of which is already sold out.

[ August 17, 2003, 08:44 PM: Message edited by: Joe in Philly ]

One word for the Phils tonight: disgraceful. Not so much because Kevin Millwood gave up 3 runs in the first 3 innings. Not so much because Turk Wendell gave up a 3-run homer in the 8th to lose the game. But because of the top half of said 8th inning--trailing 3-2 the Phils loaded the bases and then Mike Lieberthal was hit by a pitch to tie the game. Bases still loaded with no outs. Chase Utley (rookie) and Tomas Perez (pinch-hitter) strike out. Okay, there's still a chance to break the game open. But then up to the plate steps.....Jimmy Rollins.

Who swings at the first pitch and pops up to shortstop.

More and more I am disgusted with Jimmy "I think I'm Barry Bonds" Rollins. Bowa should bench him for awhile (like he himself, and some of the other veteran players, was benched at times in 1980). Maybe then he'll wake up.

Actually, Joe, you'd be better off if Jimmy Rollins really did think he was Barry Bonds. At least he'd take a few pitches then. Alas, he thinks he's Javy Lopez--last years edition, unfortunately for the Phillies.

Thank goodness, because the Marlins were the same. The only mitigating factor was that they were playing in Denver :mad: . Also, I could hear the cheers from Philadelphia all the way down here in Miami when Pudge Rodriguez left the game with a sprained wrist. Well, I can assure all the folks up there concerned that that might negatively affect the Marlins performance wink , that the Marlins are probably the deepest team in baseball at catcher, with the best back-up catcher in baseball, Mike Redmond, and a very good third string in Ramon Castro.

With all due respect, you're an...never mind. You're not worth the time.

[ August 20, 2003, 07:07 AM: Message edited by: Joe in Philly ]

Don't look now but the Expos (who we may finally hear the announcement in the next couple of weeks that they will officially be playing at RFK in 2004) are on a six-game winning streak and are now within four of the Phils for the wild-card lead....after watching Queer Eye and Boy Meets Boy last night I flipped over and caught the 'Spos-Dodgers game on Satellite (Vin Scully is still as great as ever, btw) and saw Montreal rally from behind on THREE separate occasions to overtake the Dodgers (including a 3-run 8th following Shawn Green's disputed 7th inning HR that was CLEARLY FOUL, resulting in Vlad Guerrero's ejection)....Frank Robinson vastly outmanaged Jim Tracy and why Tracy didn't bring Gagne in with 2 outs in the 8th, two men on and L.A. clinging to a one run lead I'll never know (not that I'm complaining, of course) -- it sure looks like he takes his adherence to the "Gagne will ONLY come in to start the 9th" policy a bit too seriously, if you ask me.

Following this west coast trip to L.A. and San Diego the Expos will play 13 CONSECUTIVE games against either the Phils or Marlins, which will likely determine the N.L. Wild Card winner IMHO.

[ August 20, 2003, 01:21 PM: Message edited by: gamecock ]

Wow--revenge of the also-rans. Brewers bomb the Phils and the Pirates bury the Cards.

The thing that concerns me about the Phils is the schedule--27 consecutive games without a day off, thanks to the Red Sox interleague game which was rained out in June and rescheduled for Labor Day. Unless the starters really step up or the hitters just start scoring runs in bunches every night, the bullpen is going to be worn to a frazzle.

Meanwhile, I bought a ticket for two more games (against the Marlins)--both in section 236, row 1--only a handful of rows in a 100-level section stand between me and the visitors' dugout. I'm now going to 11 of the last 16 regular-season games at the Vet! I should probably just get a hotel room down there for the month.

Hopefully the Cards will return the favor to Philadelphia when they meet up this weekend.

Your attention please...your attention PLEASE...I have an important announcement:

Jim Thome is a god.

His second homer tonight put the Phils ahead to stay. He now is second in the NL with 36, just three behind Barry Bonds.

And Burrell hit two more homers too, including career no. 100.

Nice win after three truly ugly losses in Milwaukee.