Closer Eric Gagne's 38 saves to start a season ties a major league record. In a season of disappointments, his saves (he has yet to blow a save opportunity this season) have given us something to cheer.

~Adam

I don't know the exact date or game, but I'm sure Gagne did blow a save against the Giants here at Pacific Bell Park. He even ripped the phone out of the wall in the bullpen and the Giants charged him $500 for it. wink

He blew 4 saves last year--perhaps that was one of them.

Gagne is now up to "41 consecutive saves to start a season" and has a 48-game streak going back to last season. I hope he--and Smoltz--get some serious attention for the Cy Young this year.

~Adam

Let's hope not. How the modern, 21st Century "closer" is used is a disgrace and scandal.

Gagne's supposed to be this great relief pitcher, but he's only had to face, I believe, five inherited baserunners all season. He's never asked to get his team out of a jam, he's only asked to pitch the ninth. And, coming in at the start of the 9th, he's as likely to face the 7-8-9 hitters as he is the 3-4-5 hitting heart of the order.

He's being babied, so we never get the chance to see how good he could be. Why not pitch him in the 8th, if that's when Barry Bonds or Albert Pujols is coming to bat? No-o-o-o-o-o. That would violate the inviolate rule issued by Tony La Russa when he was bringing out Dennis Eckersley in the early 90s. The current use of closers is more about not getting second-guessed on ESPN and the local media than it is on using your pitchers to maximum effectiveness.

Gagne's not in the same class as a starter that has to face everyone coming his way for as long as he can last (up to his pitch count, of course). Right now, the Cy Young should go to Mark Prior (low ERA and pitching half his games in a hitter's park), but if history is any guide, they'd probably give it to Russ Ortiz based on W/L record alone.

Gagne is Smoltzie's bitch. Compare their ERA's. Discussion is over.

Using ERAs to compare relievers is, as CITT implies, kinda useless.

By the Adjusted Runs Prevented measure, Gagne and Smoltz are thisclose ... for the honor of the FIFTH-best fireman in MLB. They trail Hasegawa, Donnelly, *Rheal Cormier* and Wagner.

Interesting tool. Unfortunately, the bookkeeping required to generate it (knowing the situations before and after each relief appearance) makes it something we can't duplicate at home. It would be interesting to apply the same sort of measure to hitters at bats, since it would be an interesting measure of "clutch" hitting.

It's probably a better measure of value than quality of pitching, since the higher score of guys like Donnelly and Cormier is situational--Gagne has very few inherited runners to prevent. It gives a nice counterpoint to the saved games stat, though...nice to see some props for the set-up guys.

A difficulty with any attempt to measure relievers is the small number of innings pitched. I don't think anyone's likely to want to trade Smoltz or Gagne for Cormier.

Good thing he's a good closer because he SUCKED as a starting pitcher!

Plus, he has to be one of the ugliest baseball players, period!

But that's a matter of *perceived* value, not what they've actually done this year. (Though I suspect Smoltz's proven ability as a starting pitcher -- a role, health issues aside, I suspect he should still be performing -- makes him the most valuable as hypothetical trade bait.)

I don't understand why calculating an average/stat on your own is part of making a number fan-friendly. (And most galoots I see in the stands couldn't even calculate batting average.) As long as you trust the stat dept. of ESPN or CNN/SI, what's the worry? Doesn't the NFL have some "quarterback rating" stat that no one knows the formula for?

I think you missed my point. Relief pitchers pitch so few innings that one year of data isn't enough to evaluate them on. Cormier HAS been fantastic this year...but he's never been all that good in the past.

Ummm...clarity? You really don't think it's important to understand what a number is actually measuring? Sorry, I don't like black boxes. I don't follow the NFL, but if I did, I'd pay absolutely no attention to their QB rating stat.

OK... yes, I do. I think most of the serious baseball fans here understand, say, slugging percentage. And if you look over the basic defs at the Baseball Prospectus site, I think you'd understand Adjusted Runs Prevented and their other stats too.

Gagne hasn't been good for much longer than Cormier, though (2002-3).

[ August 19, 2003, 02:27 PM: Message edited by: Bill W ]

For those folks criticizing the value that Bill W is placing on Rheal Cormier, based on limited data of one year, think about this ...

They very well could end up giving the Cy Young award to Russ Ortiz of the Atlanta Braves based on a one-year fluke won/lost percentage that is largely the product of an disproportionally and unnaturally large amount of run support, which has nothing to do with how he is pitching (unless you're Mike Hampton jacking the home runs over the wall at Coors) and has a lot to do with luck.

Russ Ortiz is a slightly above average pitcher. No more. No less. But he's being overvalued because of one luck-influenced statistic.

Eric Gagne is probably a very good, even excellent, relief pitcher. But he's not being tested in ways to show his true value, so we can only guess.

I'm not really criticizing it, just pointing out that the Adjusted Runs Prevented does effectively penalize Gagne for the way he's been used. Sort of like how RBI's reflect opportunities as much as production (it's not as bad as RBIs). I totally agree with you that the way modern closers are used (and even Eck averaged more than 1 inning/appearance until 1994) is absurd. As a result, it may be that Cormier is actually helping the Phillies more than Gagne is helping the dodgers (still think it's a fluke year for Cormier though). The overall strength of the Dodgers bullpen is a huge plus for them, the rest of those guys aren't getting enough credit. And wow...does that stat ever show how AWFUL Boston's bullpen has been.

BillW, I think I DO conceptually understand what they're doing. In fact, one year I had a baseball yearbook that had stats on inherited runners and I used it to adjust all the reliever's ERAs. This is just a more sophisticated approach to the same idea. I guess as a sabermetrician wannabe it annoys me that I can't tinker with the tool because I don't have access to the raw data.

As far as this year's Cy Young...well, there's a lot of games still to be played. We can still hope that some more deserving candidate (Prior or Schmidt or Brown or Nomo) will go on a tear.

Well, Gagne finally blew a save (he got the win, but it's one of those cheap reliever wins).

OK JC, you clearly have pure analytical motives. So I would submit that the most underrated NL Cy candidates are Brandon Webb and Curt Schilling (not park-assisted Dodgers and Giants) ... but that's another thread...

Thought I'd update this thread by noting the streak is now at 52 consecutive games dating back to last season. Last night's game (Dodgers defeated the Astros 6-3) was Gagne's 44th consecutive save of this season, which broke Tom Gordon's 1998 record for consecutive saves in one season. Gagne is now just two behind Gordon's all-time record for consecutive saves.

~Adam

I got confused hearing this because I thought he had blown a save...and it says so in the post above from Bill W. But clicking on the link to that game, that wasn't a blown save. Gagne entered the game in a scoreless tie and allowed a home run in the 9th. The Dodgers then tied it in the 9th and won in 10.

[ August 29, 2003, 10:32 AM: Message edited by: Joe in Philly ]

You only get a blown save if you had the lead. Anyone who has followed the Dodgers know Eric Gagne pitches like the old Eric Gagne when there's no save on the line. That game Bill mentioned above was just one of many that he has blown or come close to blowing when it wasn't a save situation. Gagne's strength is his mental state and his attitude. He's a hockey player. He doesn't know how to not go all out. When he enters in the ninth with the lead, he knows he's going to throw 9 strikes and that'll be it. When it's a tie game, he reverts to his starting pitcher mentality, that he has to conserve, and that does him in.

At the 8/31 game at Dodger Stadium, the team will hold an Eric Gagne lookalike contest in which fans can put their faces in in a cutout of Gagne while a pair of players (to be determined) will decide who most resembles the closer. Hopefully, the winner will have some of Gagne's physical traits: long-haired goatee, goggles, curly hair. The winner gets to meet Gagne & receives a replica jersey & 4 field-level tickets to an upcoming game. If I looked even remotely like him, I'd enter; at least I'll be at the game.

~Adam

I misunderstood the circumstances under which Gagne had entered that game in which he blew a tie, then got a cheap win.

As good as Gagne has been, I think the consecutive-save streak is overhyped, and his winning the Cy Young Award would still be silly.

By earning his 47th consecutive save this season, and 55th in a row dating back to last season, Eric Gagne now holds the MLB record for consecutive saves. Though Mark Prior has to considered the strongest possibility for the NL Cy Young, Gagne will have to get some serious consideration.

~Adam

Prior's a decent candidate, Jason Schmidt is better right now, and Gagne should content himself with Fireman of the Year.