Now that we're a month in....

I'm sure it's going to be a three-team race between the Phillies, Braves and Expos. The Marlins lost A.J. Burnett for the season and the Mets are...the Mets.

What's interesting is that the Phils have stayed in the race even though, except for an occasional breakout, they haven't hit at all. They're near the bottom of the league rankings in homers, and only lowly (to put it mildly) Detroit (7) has been shut out more than the Phils (4). The pitching is holding up well. When they pick up offensively, look out.

(Side note--Turk Wendell is back, seems to be healthy and has pitched extremely well so far. Seeing as how he wrote a very supportive letter in reply to gay baseball fan Dug Funnell's letter about baseball's homophobia this is especially good news.)

Naturally my Braves are in first winning 14 out of their last 17 games. Actually I thought they wouldn't do very well this year. I predicted the Phillies to run away with it. Still suprized the Expos are doing as well as they are. The game in Montreal on the 24th should be a great game. Can't wait to see that one with all you Outsporters. Remember to wear your thongs guys.

I would not expect the Braves to run away with things ... given their runs/opponents' run ratio, their win total is much lower in the Pythagorean Standings right now (a sabermetric tool I don't have time to detail right now -- any volunteers?).

The Phils still seem likely to make it a race, but that fat Pat Burrell contract is lookin' mighty suspect...

Maybe it's time for some NL math...

Phillyfan+afternoon off+free lodge level digs /free booze = trouble for dback fanz....

No worries about Burrell. He started just as slowly last year and ended up with good numbers.

...and just in the nick of time for Pat Burrell: his favorite target, the Mets! Two homers tonight (plus one by Thome).

The next couple of weeks will be interesting for the contenders as the NL East mostly plays each other in home-and-home series. The Phils have games against the Expos and Mets, the Expos also have the Marlins, and the Mets and Braves match up. The fly in the ointment is Cincinnati, which has games against the Braves and Marlins. After that: interleague play.

hope someone hits burell in the ass and make him less comfy! frown

This is shaping up to be the first recent season where Atlanta's offense -- Sheffield's great start, the blossoming of Giles and Furcal at the plate, etc -- is carrying their thus-far shaky pitching.

After the next 10 days, we might be able to retire this thread...or at least my participation in it. wink

The Phils start their 3-game series at the Vet with the Braves tomorrow, and the two teams meet again in Atlanta next week for 3 more. In between, the Red Sox come to the Vet and Baltimore heads to Turner Field. Meanwhile, the Expos are at Pittsburgh for 3, then home for 3 with Toronto and 3 with Pittsburgh.

The Braves lead the Expos by 7 and the Phillies by 10, and the Phils and Braves won't meet again until September. So you have to figure that in order to have a chance to win the division the Phils have to win, minimum, 4 of 6 vs. Atlanta and keep pace over the weekend. Of course, doing that would allow the Expos to get a lot closer if they could take advantage.

This Braves team is clearly turned on its head from all previous in this last decade. Gone the reliable starting pitching (except Ortiz). But the primary weakness in all the previous years was either hitting or bullpen...or both.

Thus the one world series title in the whole span.

In 2003 - There's nothing I need to say about ATL's 2003 relievers and batters. Their numbers say it all.

Still, I have reservations in picking the Braves to win the WS. But they'll win the NL East easily.

Placido Polanco, I love you!!!!!!!!

He came through with a desperately needed clutch hit, a game-tying single with 2 outs in the 8th...off John Smoltz! And Jimmy Rollins' hit won it in the 9th...off John Smoltz! We beat Smoltz!!! WOO-HOO!

And all this after Mike Hampton hadn't allowed any hits until that 8th inning.

One series is done, with the Phils winning 2 of 3. Now they need to keep pace or gain ground this weekend.

I think today's Phillies win against the Braves was remarkable as well. First getting no-hit for 7 plus innings by Mike Hampton and knocking him out of the game, then getting the winning run against the unscoreable Smoltz. Smoltz's era has now ballooned to a whopping 0.93 after his first loss.

The Red Sox series should be fun.

Gotta give the Phils credit for rallying to beat Smoltz today (which sent his ERA all the way up to 0.93 eek! -- edited note: sorry PhillyRunner, didn't mean to duplicate your point there) but if they expect to make a run at the postseason, Pat Burrell is gonna have to start hitting -- I know, as Joe in Philly pointed out, that Burrell has started off slowly at the plate before but his .209 batting average 2 1/2 months into the season has got to be cause for concern for Bowa and the Phils brass.

I'm a longtime Braves hater and have got to believe that their bats will begin to cool off a little (only the Cardinals have scored more runs in the NL) but with their lead now being 7 games over the Expos and 9 over the Phils (both of whom gained a game today) Atlanta may run away and hide if we don't watch out....unfortunately for the rest of the NL East, though, the Braves get to face the O's and their atrocious pitching staff for three games at Turner Field starting tomorrow.

Well, at least with today's performance Smoltz has proven he is human after all and maybe this is the beginning of a tailspin for the Braves bullpen, which has been nearly perfect all season long with a 20-8 record to go along with Smoltz' 27 saves....I just want to see Bud Selig have to squirm by facing the reality of seeing postseason games in Montreal (and NOT San Juan).

[ June 19, 2003, 08:11 PM: Message edited by: gamecock ]

Well, the Expos just finished their "Road Trip from Hell" tour... 22 games in 7 cities (Florida, Philly, San Juan, Seattle, Oakland and Pittsburgh), traveled 17,824 kilometers, all without slugger extraordinaire Vlad Guerrero and number two starter Tony Armas, Jr., and wound up with an 8-14 record on the trip, still only 3 games behind in the Wild Card race, 7 games out in the NL East. I swear, MLB is doing everything possible to see to it that this team does NOT make the playoffs. :mad:

Tonight, they're facing their north-of-the-border rivals, the heavy-hitting Blue Jays, in the first game of the newly-resurrected Pearson Cup series. The Pearson is awarded to the Canadian team that wins the home/home six game series, and I'm pretty sure the Cup is named after the late Prime Minister and not the Toronto airport. Right now, it's 2-1 BJ's after 3 innings. And I actually get to watch Expos games on TV this weekend!! Go 'Spos!!

Seph to go 8-14 on the ultimate roadtrip from hell and still be in second place in the division shows the Expos might still have a chance if the Phillies don't step it up. It's all downhill from here. I don't think the Expos have another 22 game roadtrip on the horizon.

How will the attendance be for this weekend?

Tonight's Phils-Red Sox game was, needless to say, rained out. (And it was called off early enough that I just went right home from work instead of heading to the Vet and having to turn around. Minor "woo-hoo!" for that.) They've rescheduled the game for Labor Day, and that's now when they'll give out the Mike Schmidt bobblehead dolls.

After Kevin Millwood lost Tuesday night to the Braves, it marked his third consecutive loss for the first time in his career. I was surprised to hear that, but I guess all that pitching for a Braves team will limit your losses. Anyway I wonder what has happened to him the last three games. Hopefully it is just a mechanical adjustment that needs to be made.

It's surprising that Millwood is struggling but I don't see why he can't turn it around. Meanwhile, the Phils beat up Greg Maddux tonight. Heh. So now if they win tomorrow, they'll get exactly what I said they needed in my post above: 4 of 6 over the Braves and keep pace in between.

The Phillies are not catching the Braves -- not with Burrell and Bell both making the All-Bust team. They'll have to settle for the wild card scramble. (I don't see that happening either.)

I'm sure that's something you got from Baseball Prospectus, but fortunately I happily ignore them.

Mission accomplished: 4 of 6 over the Braves, plus 2-0 over Boston. The lead is down from 10 prior to this 10-day stretch to a much more manageable 7 1/2. The Expos failed to capitalize--they are still 7 games back.

[ June 26, 2003, 08:13 PM: Message edited by: Joe in Philly ]

Don't count out Les Expos quite yet either, Joe -- especially with the likelihood of Juan Gonzalez joining Montreal becoming closer to reality every day....Juan now says he is "still considering" his options and will make his final decision on Saturday (the latest he can do so), which has to be viewed as a good sign by GM Omar Minaya after Jeff Moorad, Gonzalez' agent, flatly denied ANY chance of his client becoming an Expo earlier in the week.

With Vlad Guerrero due back soon and the 'Spos still remaining in the heat of the postseason race despite 60% of their starting rotation being on the DL (thanks in part to Montreal having one of the best managers in the game) if Juan is added to that already potent lineup look for Larry Bowa and company to start worrying (especially if Pat Burrell keeps hitting at the .201 clip that he is at now nearly halfway through the season -- do you think it's time for the Phils to consider benching Pat the Bat or will his lucrative contract prevent Bowa from doing that?)

Btw Joe, are you planning on revisiting Baltimore this weekend to see your Phils beat up on the O's?....with the way the atrocious Orioles pitching staff has been performing lately this three game series may be the easiest that the Phils have been involved in all year and, who knows, it may even be the ailment that cures the season-long offensive ills of Burrell and David Bell.

Benching Burrell isn't going to end his slump. He has to play his way out of it.

And no, no trip to Baltimore this year.

Nope, Joe in P -- even a non-seamhead would probably pick the Braves cuz "they know how to win" (I bet either Joe Morgan, Rob Dibble or Harold Reynolds must've said that by now).

I actually would *prefer* to see Atlanta unseated -- by Montreal, but the Phillies would do.

Add one Phils fan! Two out of three IN ATLANTA, and by big margins. The bats are finally working. This should be a big psychological boost to the Phils.

The Phillies have finally hit their first hotstreak of the year with 5 straight wins. Now if they can play the second half of the season even better than the first they should get a wild card spot at the least.

Things are starting to click now. The hitters are beginning to wake up. The starters are doing well--Millwood rebounded from his little slump to finish off the sweep of the Orioles. The bullpen is on fire. And I heard today that the Phils went the entire 6-game road trip without an error.

Now, let's just get Burrell and Bell on board....

Here we go. The Phllies run up to the All-Star break. Picked up a game on ATL tonite (MON). Let's just HOPE and PRAY that if they are close at the All Star Break, they don't collapse in the dog days of August. Unfortunately, it's happened too many time before.

BTW: Thanks for posting about GayDay in Phil. I think I'm going to take the train down for it. Hope its fun!

The beat writer in the Phila. Daily News has decided that, "After a decade of indifference, Philadelphia fell in love with the Phillies again last night." This is apparently based on the fact that they had a walk-up of over 4,500. They've apparently not noticed that attendance has been up all season.

Excellent! When you know for sure, if you want to sit with the Outsports gang, here's the \"sign-up sheet.\"

LIEBY!!! Game-winning hit in the 9th. Unless the Braves can score 18 in their 9th, the gap is down to four and a half!

Edited to add:

After I posted this the Marlins got 2 more!?!

[ July 01, 2003, 09:02 PM: Message edited by: Joe in Philly ]

So the Marlins hammered the Braves 20-1 tonight. Bizarre in itself, but it was only last Friday that Florida manager Jack McKeon was whining *loudly* about the Red Sox "piling on runs" in the late innings of the game that the Marlins lost 25-8. And when you win for a change, you've got no shame, hunh dick?

The Phillies bats are finally working. But I'm sorry we took 3 of 4 from the Cubs. I like them.

But the Phils are on their way. Just hope ATL loses.

Yuck. Two straight losses to Florida, with plenty of poor hitting. And here's a gripe. Hmmm...maybe I should resurrect that "Phillies are annoying as hell" thread. wink But if you're gonna keep both Pat Burrell and David Bell in the lineup (though Burrell didn't start two nights in a row before tonight), why would you have them back-to-back in the batting order? Talk about killing rallies!

Anyway, message to Montreal: if you want to try and finish first, you have to actually beat the Braves sometimes.

The Phillies return to Montreal next week for the first time since our Memorial Day Outsports trip. Something I've been hearing a lot recently seems appropriate:

This time it counts.

This thread has become quiet...spooky quiet. Must be that 8 1/2 game lead. eek!

Yup, nothing left to do but wait for the A-Braves annual playoff choke.

...in front of a half-empty Turner Field while the Braves lose in the first round of the playoffs (again).

The Phillies are now back on a roll courtesy of those New York Mets. The Phillies have won 5 in a row and hope to sweep the Mets before the All-Star break. Byrd and Palanco are starting to hit and that is setting the table for the middle of the lineup to drive them in.