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AFC
Championship: By the Numbers By Bill Konigsberg From my column last week about the divisional playoffs: "A word to the wise: Don't expect three upsets. In fact, don't expect two. If the numbers tell us anything, it's most likely that one road team will claim victory this week." (I have to gloat at times like these. I'm so often wrong that after this season my bookie has a new yacht he mysteriously named the S.S. Konigsberg.) I was right about the one road team winning in the last round. I was wrong about which team, thinking it would be the Raiders. To my credit, one more self-quote: "The Eagles ... too close to call. I see a Philly victory, but the numbers just don't back it up." Anyhow, the gloating stops here, and we move on to what appears to be an interesting set of Championship Games this week. Pittsburgh hosts the AFC game against the Pats, in a sequence eerily similar to one from seven years ago, and the unstoppable Rams host arguably the hottest team in the league, the Eagles. Permit me to stroll down memory lane. In my undying effort to show that there are no new scripts in the NFL, I submit for your approval the 1994 NFL playoffs: In 1994, the Steelers followed up a 9-7 season with one in which they finished with the top record in the AFC. In the divisional playoffs, they made quick work of the Browns, beating them 29-9. Meanwhile, over in the NFC, an NFC West team (the Niners) went 13-3 and beat an NFC Central team (the Bears) 44-15 in the divisional playoffs. The Browns are now
the Ravens. Literally and figuratively. The Steelers won that game
seven years ago by 20. This time they won by 17. The Niners are now
the Rams. That Bears team they beat are now the Packers. The 1994 win
was by 44-15. This time it was 45-17. Anybody else getting shivers?
Not yet?
The Steelers looked poised to make the Super Bowl that year, likely to face the Niners, who had scored an unbelievable 505 points in going 13-3. This year, they look poised to make the Super Bowl to face the Rams, who have scored an unbelievable 502 points in going 14-2. Well guess what? In 1994, their plans were derailed when the no-name Chargers, led by Stan Humphries and bullish running back Natrone Means, ended their dreams with a 17-13 upset in Pittsburgh. The Chargers went on to get annihilated in the Super Bowl by the Niners. Could the same thing happen here? Obviously it's possible. The Patriots, much like the Chargers that year, have found ways to win despite not having the league's best talent. Their season should have probably ended last week against the Raiders, much like the '94 Chargers were lucky to have gotten by the Dolphins. Down 21-6 at the half, they shut down Miami for the remainder of the game and won on a last-minute touchdown pass to Mark Seay. The difference here is
that the Steelers were more dominant this year than they were in
'94.
Looking at the reality of
the game, the major thing that differentiates this one from the battle
seven years ago against San Diego is that the Patriots have much more
trouble stopping the run than that Chargers team did:
So do you go with history,
or reality? Keep in mind that since 1990, top seeds are 11-6 in
conference finals games. That's a good mark, but it means that five
teams that appeared to have the edge went down: Prediction: Despite the fact that Tom Brady isn't ready for the Super Bowl quite yet, the Pats find a way to win in a close one, and then get smothered by the Rams in the Super Bowl. When historical trends come up against current ones, go with the historical. Especially in this case, since the Steelers seem to find ways to lose AFC Championship Games. They are 1-3 since 1980, with the only win against the Colts, a game they just as easily could have lost. Jan. 23, 2002 |
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