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NFL
Playoffs: By the Numbers
If History Holds, Look for One Upset
By Bill Konigsberg
For Outsports.com
(Editor's note: Bill Konigsberg is an editor at ESPN.com. His column
in which he came out at ESPN has been nominated for a GLAAD media
award. Check out his Outsports Clubhouse
profile.)
Looking at the division playoffs
schedule this weekend, there appear to be two or possibly three
scenarios in which an upset appears possible. Donovan McNabb heads
back to the city in which he grew up to play an unproven Chicago
team... the similarly unproven Patriots host a hungry Raiders team.
And in Pittsburgh, the Super Bowl Champions hope to turn the tide
against the Steelers in what figures to be a hard-fought battle. We
discount the Rams-Packers not because the Packers have no chance but,
well ... OK, we discount them because they have no chance.
A word to the wise: Don't expect three
upsets. In fact, don't expect two. If the numbers tell us anything,
it's most likely that one road team will claim victory this
week.
Wild Card Games
Home Team W/L
2001: 3-1
2000: 4-0
1999: 3-1
1998: 3-1
1997: 3-1
1996: 3-1
Total: 19-5
Divisional Playoffs
Home Team W/L
2000: 3-1
1999: 3-1
1998: 4-0
1997: 3-1
1996: 3-1
Total: 16-4
As you can see, the home team has won
80% in each round, and perhaps more interestingly two home teams have
not lost in any one of the first two playoff weekends since the
divisional playoffs in 1995. That weekend the Packers and Colts
advanced, winning in San Francisco and Kansas City,
respectively.
In the wild card round this year, true to form there was one home team
that lost, the Dolphins against the Ravens. Since 1996, only one team
that pulled off an upset in Round 1 went on to do it again in the
divisional playoffs. That was back in '96, when the upstart Jaguars
rode the arm of Mark Brunell to wins in Buffalo and then Denver.
Incidentally, that's the last time a No. 5 seed won in the first round
(as the Ravens did this year). The similarities end there.
That Jacksonville team had won five straight coming into the playoffs,
while the Ravens struggled at the end of the year, finishing up with a
poor showing in a win over the awful Vikings. Last week's win over the
Dolphins may have looked impressive, but a win in Miami is nothing
compared to what Baltimore will have to accomplish to do the same in
Pittsburgh this weekend. Don't count on it.
If there's no upset there, that would mean that one of the two seeds,
the Pats or Bears, would appear ripe for upset. Interesting, because
since 1996 No. 2 seeds are 9-1 in the divisional playoffs. Only the
Colts lost in that round as a No. 2, back in 1999 to the Super
Bowl-bound Titans, and that was the only time in any of the 10 games
that the lower seed had the same record (13-3) as the No. 2 seed in
that game. In this case, both Chicago and New England have a better
W-L than their visitors, so there's no precedent for this type of
upset, unless you go all the way back to 1993, when the 11-5 Chiefs
ousted the No. 2 seed Oilers, who were 12-4 in the regular
season.
So what does all this mean? Nothing, since obviously the games will be
played in Chicago, New England, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis and not on a
computer. But still, keep this in mind when forecasting the coming
games:
W-L record by seed
Divisional playoffs since 1996
1 seed: 7-3 (Rams, Steelers this year)
2 seed: 9-1 (Patriots, Bears)
3 seed: 0-7 (Raiders, Eagles)
4 seed: 3-6 (Packers)
5 seed: 1-0 (Ravens)
6 seed: 0-3
Bold predictions
Oakland becomes the first No. 3 seed to advance to
the championship games since the 1995 Packers. The Ravens become the
first No. 5 seed to lose in this round. The Rams win over Green Bay.
The Eagles ... too close to call. I see a Philly victory, but the
numbers just don't back it up. Happy watching!
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