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TRIVIA
QUESTION: This
year, the AP League MVP (Rich Gannon, Oakland), Offensive Player
of the Year (Priest Holmes, Kansas City) and Coach of the Year
(Andy Reid, Philadelphia) were all from different teams.
When was the last year that the AP League MVP, Offensive
Player of the Year, Coach of the Year and Super Bowl Champions
were all from different teams?
My first read
on a game is usually pretty on.
It’s only when I start “thinking” about it that I
get myself confused with the stuff that doesn’t matter in
these big games, like statistics.
Three years ago, I liked the Rams at first, then
convinced myself the Titans were the team to beat; two years
ago, my gut said Baltimore – my reasoning said New York; last
year, I finally learned to listen to my gut and went with the
Patsies.
At the
beginning of the season, after “thinking” about the Raiders
and Bucs for six months, I couldn’t have gotten either of
these teams more wrong. I
had neither of them winning their division; and I had the
Raiders finishing last in the AFC West with only six wins.
Of the Raiders, I predicted:
“They've made some great acquisitions, especially on
defense. But, this team is simply cursed - and they let
the man with the talisman go.”
The Bucs I
called classically terribly:
“Why does everyone think Jon Gruden will take this team
directly to the Super Bowl? He never took a talented
Raiders team there, despite having home field advantage in the
AFC Championship in 2000. The Bucs’ biggest weakness is
still at quarterback – and, the one guy who has given the Bucs
a playoff win (Shaun King) will be sitting on the bench watching
two guys who can’t lead a team trying to revive this offense.
Look for loss #3 to the Eagles in the playoffs.”
My first gut
feeling about the Super Bowl was to go with Tampa Bay.
Since that
standing alone doesn’t make for great copy, I’ll outline
some of my thoughts here for the hell of it:
-
Since losing to Pittsburgh at home five weeks ago, the Bucs have
rolled through teams, winning their last three games (two on
the road in the cold) by a combined 73-16.
They are clicking on both sides of the ball, and I
have no reason to believe they won’t continue to click.
- The
Raiders have also won their last three games convincingly.
But, a couple things jump out at me about those wins.
First, they were all at home.
The Chiefs win in Week 17 was in the rain against a
team that had nothing to play for (and the League’s
Offensive Player of the Year on the bench).
The Titans had the Raiders right where they wanted
them – until they decided to run Robert Holcombe and let a
three-point halftime lead slip to a seven-point halftime
deficit.
- Usually,
the team that talks more trash in these big games backs it
up. They’re
both talking; but, the Bucs are the trash-talking kings, so
chalk another one up for them.
- The
one thing that does bother me about the Bucs’ chances is
their offensive play calling.
When Gruden left Oakland and Callahan took over, the
Raiders had the hottest offense in the League.
Why? Big
plays. Oakland coach Bill Callahan wasn’t afraid of throwing it deep.
Gruden is; and, with those receivers (yes, Keyshawn
is overrated), he has good reason.
But, to win in this game, he’s got to let Brad
Johnson throw downfield a least twice (if not more) during
the game. If he
doesn’t do that, then the Raiders will win.
- On
a side note, I have a mathematical “system” I have used
to predict Super Bowl winners the last three years; it’s
been right twice and wrong once (wrong only when my
“gut” went against it). This year, it says: Raiders win, 19-17.
My
Final Answer: Bucs 24, Raiders 17
TRIVIA
ANSWER: 1990
- Joe Montana, San Francisco (League MVP); Warren Moon, Houston
(Offensive Player); Jimmy Johnson, Dallas, and Art Shell, Los
Angeles (Coaches of the Year); New York Giants (Super Bowl
Champs). If the Bucs win, it will happen for the first time in 12
years.
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Hard as
it is to believe, Jon Gruden will not throw any passes or
make any tackles in the Super Bowl. He'll merely coach the Tampa
Bay Buccaneers. But that fact has been obscured by the frenzy all
week documenting Gruden against his old team, the Oakland Raiders.
It's easy to understand the obsession with Gruden-it's an obvious
angle and makes for good copy. Gruden, though, will not be the key
factor in the game; the players will be. And for this reason, the
Super Bowl trophy will be heading to the Bay Area.
The Raiders are a team playing at its peak with a bevy of stars.
There's Rich Gannon, the quarterback playing almost
perfect. He's merely the league's MVP. There are receivers
Jerry Rice, Tim Brown and Jerry Porter, who run
great routes and have great hands. There's the underrated running
back Charlie Garner, deceptively quick. There's the big,
mean offensive line that gives Gannon tons of time. You can
throw in a defense that has melded into an effective unit, with
vets Bill Romanowski, Sam Adams and Rod Woodson
bringing Super Bowl savvy.
No doubt that the Bucs are good, at least on defense. Their
defenders are quick and could cause Oakland some early problems.
Ronde Barber and Derrick Brooks are stars playing at
a high level. And in the playoffs, both the Jets and Titans gave
the Raiders a game through three quarters.
But, as it's always been, offense
remains the Bucs' flaw. Brad Johnson is a functional
quarterback, but he can't carry a team like Gannon. Mike
Alstott may be a major lust object of Outsports readers, but
he runs hot and cold as a running back. Keyshawn Johnson
has a better mouth than speed as a receiver and the offensive line
can be dominated by a big group like Oakland's.
Tampa's only chance is to get a lead; the Bucs are awful at coming
from behind. Look for Oakland to steal a page from the Pittsburgh
Steelers in their Monday night win at Tampa in December. The
Steelers were aggressive from the start, completing a 42-yard pass
on the game's opening play and scoring a few plays later. Before
they knew it, the Bucs were behind 17-0 and it was lights out.
Tampa won't weather a similar attack by the Raiders.
In the end, I see a game that is fairly competitive; it's hard to
see a defense like Tampa's getting steamrolled. But slowly and
inexorably, the Raiders will march and when it's done, Al Davis
will once again proclaim the "Greatness of the Raid-ahs."
Raiders 23, Bucs 14. |
