HUBRIS BEFORE THE FALL
Fourth
and 25.
Fourth
and 26.
Two
plays, separated by two weeks and 2,000 miles, that began
and ended the playoffs for 2003’s anointed “team of
destiny,” the Green Bay Packers.
The
Minnesota Vikings must be laughing today. After their
collapse against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 17 sent the
Packers to the playoffs, the entire community of Green Bay
rubbed it in their rivals’ faces. They even invited the
demon of the Vikings’ loss, Arizona’s Nate Poole, who caught
the 28-yard touchdown pass on fourth and 25 as time expired,
to their first playoff game and gave him the key to the City
of Green Bay.
While
God may have been pulling some strings for the Packers in
the previous three weeks, the gods clearly decided to make
them and their fans pay for the hubris they showed just a
week before. And this time, they rubbed it in the Packers’
faces, giving them a 14-point lead before jabbing them in
the hearts with a converted fourth and 26.
Fittingly, the Packers’ hopes were dashed by a fourth down
conversion that was just one yard longer than that which
crushed Vikings fans two weeks earlier.
There
must be a God, and he must have a sense of humor.
MARTZ IS 0-2
Mike
Martz has now been outcoached in two consecutive playoff
games: the Super Bowl in New England and this Wild Card
game against Carolina.
What’s
interesting is the symmetry between the two games.
In the
Super Bowl, the Rams had tied the Patriots with under a
minute left. Many had assumed the Patriots would run out
the clock and settle for overtime. Instead, Bill Belichick
entrusted his young quarterback to lead his team to
victory. A gutty call by a gutty coach that burned the
Rams.
Against
Carolina, the Rams had gone 32 yards in 1:14, leaving
themselves with 1:24 on the clock and 25 yards to go for the
win. Instead of trusting his young quarterback and one of
the best running backs in the League, coach Mike Martz
decided that he had seen enough after a short pass to
Marshall Faulk and a run by Faulk combined for 10 of those
25 yards and, with 35 seconds remaining just 15 yards from
the end zone, Martz let the clock run down and kicked a
field goal.
And
though I needed the Rams to win for my own selfish purposes,
I cackled with glee as they went down to defeat.
There
must be a God, and he must have a sense of humor.
PERFECT PEYTON
Quarterback Peyton Manning has a quarterback rating in these
playoffs of 156.9. Pretty damn good for a guy they said
couldn’t win a playoff game.
That’s
what the sports media is filling our heads with, anyway.
“They said he couldn’t win a playoff game.” “They said he
couldn’t win a playoff game on the road.”
Couldn’t? They’re trying to tell us that people were saying
he could not win a playoff game – which means that he would
go his entire 15+ year career without winning a single
playoff game.
I have
been down on Peyton Manning for a few years because I think
he’s overrated. Right now, he’s “The Best Quarterback in
the NFL” of the month – who will be headed to New England to
fast the Best Coach in the NFL of the year.
Steve
McNair, Manning’s co-MVP of the NFL, was the highest rated
passer in the league this season. He came into New England
this past Sunday and did respectably; his passer rating for
the game was only about 10 points lower than his season-long
rating. The Titans lost, anyway.
What
will happen in New England this week? Well, against a
mediocre-at-best defense in Kansas City, Manning was
flawless; and they only won by a touchdown.
THE
LEAST SURPRISING SURPRISING SCORE
The
Carolina Panthers beat the St. Louis Rams on Sunday. The
unbeatable St. Louis Rams. “The Greatest Show on Turf.”
They beat them and, except for the last four minutes of the
fourth quarter, they beat them soundly.
For
three of the last five seasons, we’ve had to suffer through
people talking about the unbeatable Rams. Less so this
year, but that “unbeatable” nonsense was still there.
Certainly they would be unbeatable against the Carolina
Panthers, a team who was 1-15 two years ago when they were
in the NFC West with the Rams. Certainly against Jake
Delhomme. Certainly not.
The
Panthers have been looking a lot like the Baltimore Ravens
did when they won the Super Bowl: strong running game,
strong defense, smart coaching staff and a serviceable
quarterback who can hit one big play per game that could
break it open. In this case, it was Delhomme’s 69-yard
touchdown pass to Steve Smith that ended the game.
These
Panthers could win the Super Bowl. Sounds crazy, but they
could. Philadelphia is no great shakes. They can be had
with a good running game (which Carolina has) and their
offensive line is susceptible (Carolina ranked seventh in
the League in sacks this season).
Another
playoff collapse for the Eagles? They already had one on
Sunday. They lucked out then; I don’t know as they’ll be as
lucky this Sunday.
MY
PREDICTIONS FOR THE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS:
Indianapolis at New England.
So often in these matchups, where you have two strong sides
matching up against one another, it’s the other side of the
ball that determines the game. In this one, you have Indy’s
Peyton Manning and the hottest offense in the league going
against Bill Belichick and the hottest defense in the
league. But, this game is going to come down to the
Patriots’ offense against the Colts’ defense. The
difference: Tom Brady, who will have a stellar outing and
make a few voters wonder if maybe he was the MVP of the
League. Patriots 27, Colts 17.
Carolina
at Philadelphia.
Philadelphia has lost two consecutive NFC Championships,
which means they will be very hungry at home against the
Panthers this Sunday. It also means they don’t play well in
Conference Championships. This Eagles team is the same team
that lost to the Bucs last year at home – but not as good.
This Panthers team, while not as good as the Bucs’ team last
year, is an improvement over the Eagles’ 2202 Championship
opponents in one key area: the running game. We can
already start looking toward another offseason of Eagles
fans calling for McNabb – the man whom today is their hero –
to be cut from the team. Panthers 20, Eagles 17 |
This was the best
divisional round of playoffs in NFL history. All four games were
decided by seven or less points, two in overtime. Finals:
Carolina 29, St. Louis 23 (overtime); Philadelphia 20, Green Bay 17
(overtime), New England 17, Tennessee 14, Indianapolis 38, Kansas City
31.
Homoerotic line of
the week:
“The more I talk
about him the more I think I have a crush on him." Fox announcer
Joe Buck about his broadcast partner Troy Aikman, in the
Los Angeles Times.
Weird stat: On
Nov. 30, Philadelphia won at Carolina, 25-16, and New England won at
Indianapolis, 38-34. The same four teams play each other again next
week in the conference championships.
Game observations,
starting backwards, from the late game Sunday:
--4th
and 26? How the hell did the Green Bay Packers allow the
Philadelphia Eagles to convert a fourth-and-26 pass in the final 1:12
that left the Eagles alive to set up the game-tying field goal?
Inexcusable. Especially when the receiver is Freddie Mitchell,
who has generally been a bust. In his post-game comments, Mitchell was
dressed in a fur that looked like fresh road kill.
I hated the Packers
defense on that play. They rushed only four, despite having sacked
Donovan McNabb five of the previous eight plays. They then kept a
linebacker and defensive back within 8-10 yards of the line--why? Let
Philly have a medium range pass; your goal is to prevent a 26-yard
pass. The deep defenders also played about five yards too deep. The
Packers defensive coaches will be having nightmares about this all
season.
Said Packers cornerback Mike McKenzie: ''We were playing a soft
coverage. We were trying to be very cautious and play it very easy and
that's what hurt us.'' Amen.
--The killer play in
overtime was Brett Favre’s ill-advised pass on first down that
was intercepted by Brian Dawkins and led to the game-winning
field goal. Favre saw the Eagles blitz and threw it up for Javon
Walker, who was nowhere near the ball. An obvious case of
miscommunication. Favre, who has been playing on an emotional high
since the death of his dad three weeks ago, didn’t talk to the media
after, so we don’t know what his thought process was.
--Packers receiver
Robert Ferguson had two first-quarter touchdowns, both against
Sheldon Brown. But for some reason, Green Bay stopped picking on
Brown. Asked why, Ferguson said, ''I'm not
going to go there.''
--The Packers controlled both lines of
scrimmage, rushing for 210 yards and getting eight sacks of
McNabb. The key, though, was Green Bay’s inability to finish off
drives, especially in the third quarter, when twice drives stalled
inside the Eagles 40. This allowed Philadelphia to stay within a
touchdown, then McNabb started to making plays.
--I think the Eagles are a generally
uninteresting team, but I do like McNabb. He’s comes across as
pretty classy and someone you can admire.
--I questioned the Packers going for it
on fourth-and-goal from the 1 late in the second quarter up 14-7.
Always take the points, especially on the road. However, Green Bay had
a great play called and would have scored had one of its own linemen
not tripped running back Ahman Green.
--4th and 26???
--So much for Peyton Manning being
“co” MVP. “Co,” my ass. In the playoffs he totally outplayed his
co-winner Steve McNair. Manning has gone 44 for 56, 681 yards
and eight touchdowns and no picks. McNair threw four interceptions in
his two games and make several key bonehead plays.
--Manning was masterful in dissecting Kansas
City on Sunday. He regularly had them off-guard and every decision he
made was perfect. One example: Colts up 31-24, facing third-and-8,
crowd in a frenzy. Handoff to Edgerrin James, 1-yard gain. But
wait … Manning’s hustle to snap the ball caught the Chiefs with 12 men
on the field. Five-yard penalty and play over. This time, the Colts
get the first down and they go down to score the clinching touchdown.
--In two playoff games, the Colts have
yet to punt. Said Colts punter Hunter Smith, who has yet to
break a sweat (he does hold on place kicks) in two weeks: "My
family knows I was out there."
--Memo to the Chiefs: Fire defensive
coordinator Greg Robinson. His schemes suck and someone has to
be the fall guy for such a collapse. In three of their final five
games, the Chiefs have allowed 45, 45 and 38 on Sunday.
--The Chiefs started the season 9-0 but went
4-4 down the stretch as their defense got exposed. Early in the
season, KC thrived off of turnovers, which made their D seem better
than it was. When the turnovers stopped, the points allowed soared.
--KC was also plagued by often-inept wide
receivers, who seldom made plays. Quarterback Trent Green was
victimized by several drops on Sunday, including two by Johnnie
Morton. The Colts defense also did not play well (KC never
punted), but lucky for them the Chiefs self-destructed at crucial
times.
--The Chiefs have now lost their last three
playoff games, all at home.
--4th and 26??????
--Saturday night, in the Boston ice box (4
degrees), Steve McNair had a brain freeze. How else to explain
some of the Tennessee quarterback’s weird decision-making? McNair
threw a bad interception (deep to a tight end?), had three delay of
game penalties and a costly intentional grounding call on the Titans’
final drive. And in the second quarter, he inexplicably decided to run
out of bounds for a 6-yard loss instead of simply throwing the ball
away. The loss prevented the Titans from attempting a make-able field
goal. Yet, all the announcers could keep talking about was what a
warrior he is. The Titans won a week ago despite McNair and lost
Saturday chiefly because of him.
--I felt bad for Titans receiver Drew
Bennett. His drop on the New England 15 on fourth down ended the
game. He should have caught it and said so. If it wasn’t for Bennett,
though, the Titans never would have been in position at end. He had
one of the great catches ever (no hyberole) for one first down, and
another superb one to get the Titans 10 yards. But all that he’ll
remember is the final drop. ''It's definitely an image that
will stick with me throughout the offseason,” he said.
--Bethel Johnson?
David Givens? Christian Fauria? Deion Branch? Who
are these guys? They are some of the Patriot receivers and it’s hard
to find a more anonymous bunch. All they do is make plays when they
need to, a testament to the total team package in New England. Tom
Brady doesn’t put up Manning-like numbers, but he has led the Pats
to 13 wins in a row.
--The Pats are the
only team that is still unbeaten at home. The Chiefs and Rams
had been the others until this weekend.
--CBS’ coverage
of the Pats-Titans game was hideous. They kept showing the play
from a camera behind the offense (the director was infatuated with his
new toy), which loses all sense of perspective. You have no idea if a
completed pass went for 2 yards or 22 yards. I could go on and on.
--4th
and 26???????
--Has Jason Sehorn made a tackle yet?
I charted the St. Louis Rams safety on Saturday and he was either late
to the ball carrier or afraid of laying all out for a tackle. Contact
is not Sehorn’s favorite activity. He took a bad angle that allowed
Stephen Davis to run 63 yards in the first half and was out of
position on the Panthers’ game-winning 69-yard touchdown pass in
overtime to Steve Smith that ended it. Hard to see the Rams
bringing Sehorn back.
--Rams coach Mike Martz has been
justly criticized for playing for the game-tying field goal at the end
of regulation. It showed a total lack of faith in quarterback Marc
Bulger. While it’s true that Bulger had thrown two interceptions
at that point, it’s also true that he had led the Rams back from 11
down. Martz had no guarantee that the Rams would ever see the ball in
overtime, which makes his play-it-safe attitude even more puzzling.
Martz needs to make the Super Bowl next season or he could be gone;
the Rams have generally underachieved since he took over in 2000.
--The Panthers’ win blotted out the fact
that they blew an 11-point lead with less than three minutes to
go. It would have been one of the all-time playoff chokes.
--4th and 26?????
Championship Game Picks:
I went 2-2 this weekend and am 6-2 in the
playoffs. Early lines have the Eagles by 4 over the Panthers and Pats
by 3 ½ over the Colts. These are both rematches, but at different
sites this time.
AFC: I’m going back and forth on
this. One part of me sees the Colts offense playing at such a high
level that no one can stop them. On the other hand, the Patriots have
the game’s best defense and Manning has never won at New England.
I think the Pats will
play the Colts the way the Giants played the Bills in the Super Bowl
in 1991 (where Pats coach Bill Belichick was defensive coordinator):
Chew up as much clock as possible and keep Manning on the bench. When
he does take the field, make him feel he has to score a TD each time
lest they not get the ball back. This could lead to mistakes.
However, if the Colts defense steps it up and Manning feels
comfortable. they can score 27-34 points which puts great pressure on
the Pats. A classic D vs. O matchup and the best AFC title game (on
paper) they could have had. I think these are the two best teams in
the NFL and the winner takes the Super Bowl.
My
heart says Indy, my head leans New England. Hell, let’s go with my
heart.
Colts 27, Patriots 24.
NFC: The Panthers can win this one if
they dominated the line of scrimmage like the Packers did against the
Eagles. Look for Philly to blitz Jake Delhomme early to try and rattle
him. I see a low-scoring affair. Eagles 16, Panthers 10.
--4th and
26????????????????????????? |
